CE Week #2: “Bailout Plan: $2.5 Trillion and a Strong U.S. Hand”
WASHINGTON — The White House plan to rescue the nation’s financial system, announced on Tuesday by Timothy F. Geithner, the Treasury secretary, is far bigger than anyone predicted and envisions a far greater government role in markets and banks than at any time since the 1930s.
Administration officials committed to flood the financial system with as much as $2.5 trillion — $350 billion of that coming from the bailout fund and the rest from private investors and the Federal Reserve, making use of its ability to print money.
Mindful of previous financial crises at home and abroad that became protracted because governments moved too slowly, Mr. Geithner pointedly criticized the Bush administration for not acting boldly and quickly enough.
But the initial assessment of the plan from the markets, lawmakers and economists was brutally negative, in large part because they expected more details.
Basic questions about how the various parts of the program would work, especially those involving the unsellable mortgages that banks are holding and preventing home foreclosures, were left for another day. Some Wall Street experts criticized the plan for relying too heavily on the same vague solutions proposed by the Bush administration.
The stock market, propped up for weeks on the expectation that Washington would finally deliver a comprehensive rescue plan, dipped almost as soon as Mr. Geithner began speaking in the morning. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 382 points, or 4.6 percent, by the time the market closed. Yields on Treasury bills dropped, indicating a flight from stocks to the safety of government bonds. Asian markets slipped more narrowly.
While traveling in Fort Myers, Fla., President Obama welcomed the news that the Senate voted 61-37 to approve its $838 billion economic stimulus bill Tuesday, but dismissed the market reaction to his bank rescue plan.
“Wall Street, I think, is hoping for an easy out on this thing and there is no easy out,” Mr. Obama said in an interview with ABC News.
Many of the vital details of the program remain unsettled and are the subject of an intense behind-the-scenes debate.
The president himself had built up expectations that the plan would get ahead of the crisis — and not lurch from pillar to post as the Bush administration did last year, often in partnership with the New York Federal Reserve under its then-president, Mr. Geithner.
A central piece of the plan — and the one item that investors most craved information about — would create one or more so-called bad banks that would rely on taxpayer and private money to purchase and hold banks’ bad assets. But the administration provided the least amount of details about this part of the plan.
Another centerpiece of the plan would stretch the last $350 billion that the Treasury has for the bailout by relying on the Federal Reserve’s ability to create money, in effect, out of thin air. The Fed’s money will enable the government to become involved in the management of markets and banks in ways not seen since the Great Depression.
In the credit markets, for instance, the administration and the Fed are proposing to expand a lending program that would spend as much as $1 trillion to make up for the $1.2 trillion decline between 2006 and last year in the issuance of securities backed primarily by consumer loans.
The plan’s third major component would give banks new helpings of capital with which to lend. Banks that receive new government assistance will have to cut the salaries and perks of their executives and sharply limit dividends and corporate acquisitions.
They will also have to make public more information about their lending practices. A Treasury fact sheet said that banks would have to state monthly how many new loans they make, but stopped short of ordering banks to issue new loans or requiring them to account in detail for the federal money.
Mr. Obama, in the ABC News interview, suggested that banks would be required to reveal more about their mortgage holdings.
“Essentially what you’ve got are a set of banks that have not been as transparent as we need to be in terms of what their books look like. And we’re going to have to hold out the Band-Aid a little bit and go ahead and just be clear about some of the losses that have been made because until we do that, we’re not going to be able to attract private capital into the marketplace.”
The day was the first big test of Mr. Geithner as Treasury secretary, who has one of the toughest sells in America: convincing lawmakers and taxpayers that they should again bail out the very banks whose mistakes contributed to the loss of more than three million jobs and caused acute financial pain.
It was clear during the hours he spent before the cameras and lawmakers that he was well-spoken and thoughtful. But his career until now had played out behind the scenes as a civil servant and a central banker. He occasionally lapsed into financial jargon and struggled to connect to a broader public audience.
As the day wore on, Mr. Geithner faced growing skepticism from Democratic and Republican lawmakers, many of them channeling deep voter disgust with the way the government has handled the bailout over the last nine months.
Even Democrats who are supportive of the administration said that it had failed to provide more information about how it would be spending the remaining money in the bailout program.
“We need more details from Treasury on how exactly it plans to remove bad assets while protecting the taxpayer,” said Senator John Kerry, the Massachusetts Democrat who is a senior member of the Senate Finance Committee. “We have zombie banks that are weighed down because their liabilities exceed their assets. Without a precise mechanism for addressing toxic assets, it will be difficult to increase lending.”
The pessimism seemed to indicate that Mr. Geithner missed the mark with one of his shorter-term goals — to quickly instill confidence that the Obama administration has a coherent approach to the banking crisis and that the transparency and oversight of the new program will differ markedly from the Bush administration’s management of the first $350 billion that Congress authorized last year for the Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP.
“The spectacle of huge amounts of taxpayer money being provided to the same institutions that helped cause the crisis, with limited transparency and oversight, added to the public distrust,” the Treasury secretary said, in a clear swipe at the Bush administration.
“We will have to try things we’ve never tried before. We will make mistakes. We will go through periods in which things get worse and progress is uneven or interrupted,” Mr. Geithner said.
Representative Barney Frank, the Massachusetts Democrat who heads the House Financial Services Committee, criticized the Obama administration for not putting out more details and said it should commit more than $50 billion to avert home foreclosures.
“The secretary said the administration would present details of their foreclosure reduction plan in a few weeks, which is too much time,” Mr. Frank said.
Appearing on Tuesday afternoon before the Senate banking committee, Mr. Geithner vowed to move quickly to provide more details. But Republicans were skeptical.
“Is there a concrete plan here?” Richard Shelby of Alabama, the senior Republican on the committee, asked Mr. Geithner point blank, after noting that Mr. Geithner had been part of the leadership involved in last year’s bailout efforts. “What is different about the process that you are offering here to devise your plan such that we should have confidence that it is well thought out?”
There was also withering criticism from Wall Street. Ethan Harris, co-head of United States economics research at Barclays Capital, said the program was “shock and uh.” He said the Treasury made a “tactical mistake” by building up expectations about a plan before it had much to announce.
“What’s striking is that these are not new issues that they are facing,” Mr. Harris said. “These are the same issues that the Treasury faced last fall — how do we price the assets? The fact that it’s so been so difficult to figure out the answer may tell you something about whether it’s worth doing or not.”
Mr. Harris warned that setting up a so-called bad bank would be very expensive, as Mr. Geithner himself acknowledged when he set the goal of creating a fund that would reach $1 trillion. Frank Pallotta, a former managing director at Morgan Stanley and a veteran mortgage trader, said the gap was so wide between what banks were valuing their assets and what investors were willing to pay that the government would attract investors to buy only if it provided a subsidy of one form or another.
“Right now, the banks aren’t selling anything,” said Mr. Pallotta, now a consultant to both buyers and sellers of distressed mortgages. “You have Chase thinking that its assets are worth 75 cents on the dollar, and Joe Hedge Fund who thinks they are only worth 45 or 25. There is a huge gap, and the government has to find out if there is some middle point where they can get in.”
Mr. Pallotta said he did not fault the Treasury for failing to offer specifics yet, but he said it could not delay for long. “If we don’t hear in the next 30 days about how this thing will flesh out, then I would be upset.”
Jeff Zeleny contributed reporting from Fort Myers, Fla.
I really don’t know if I think another stimulus package is what we need right now. A part of me thinks we should just wait until spring/summer and if the problem hasn’t started to correct itself by then, maybe institute another deal. But for now, I have to agree with the pessimistic side of this. Bush’s bailout plan didn’t really go so well, and what if the same thing happens again? Obama said it himself, this isn’t going to be an easy accomplishment… What if we get ourselves into a bigger mess than before? Then what are we going to do. Mr. Geithner said we have to try new things and take risks.. but what if those risks leave millions unemployed and mess up the economy for good? In the beginning of the article it says that the Bush administration didn’t act fast enough going into the crisis to stop it (it seems like he is getting the “too slow” remark alot lately) well what could he have done? Another stimulus package seems to be Obama’s answer, but didn’t Bush already try this? I guess I am just confused as to why he is going to do this again when it clearly didn’t really work the first time?
Connection: Bush Administration. He already tried this plan and it didn’t work. Granted it was less money and maybe a less organized plan, but still. And the Wall Street-Main Street debate. Which one would benefit most from a stimulus package?
Well, I just had to read the title of this article and I just about choked…2.5 trillion! That’s just disgusting! And the most disgusting part of it is we don’t even know if we have a “concrete plan” to go along with this 2.5 trillion. Ouch. As I continued to read, my long ago fears that all of this “hope” and “change” Obama was talking about would just be preconceived nice sounding ideas started to again rise up to the surface. Will Obama hold true to his plans or actually does he even have a plan to start with? Also the idea that Congress would just start printing more money really gave me the goose bumps. It brought back all of the lessons learned in US History about the depression and how money was useless and how as the printing machines cranked out more bills everything became more expensive and a loaf of bread cost something outrageous like 70 bucks or something. Does Obama really think this will help our failing economy? Furthermore I was confused on what “bad banks” are and what they had to do with the central part of this stimulus plan. At least come up with a more attractive name than “bad banks” and fool your voters with a name like “amazing life-saving economy changing…(shoot what’s our main idea again?) banks.” Additionally, how can Obama say “well our banks need to be more transparent and show how many loans they’re giving out” when he can’t even give us a straighforward bailout plan? All I can say is that I sure as heck hope Obama and the treasury department at least have some notion on what they’re going to do with 2.5 trillion!
Connection: We just learned that one of the pit falls of bureaucracies and the regulations they attempt to pass is the lack of clarity in their policies. It’s sure easy to pass on the dirty work to someone else, isn’t it?
In response to Kellie Hensley,
I don’t agree with your comments, because you said that they government should wait until the spring or summer to act on the existing crisis that we are facing with the economy. I think that it would be ridiculous to wait until then to act, because I don’t think that the economy is going to fix itself. If we wait, the economy will inevitably become worse and then the government may not be able to fix the problems. This problem started with the Bush Administration and now Obama has to face the same problems. Obama is trying to fix this problem, but it will take time. It can’t be fixed overnight or even in four years. If we have any hope of getting out of this recession then we must act immediately. Waiting will only cause more problems, because the situation can get out of hand fast. This is how we got into this problem in the first place, because Bush wasn’t watching what was happening with the different markets and he waited to act. Look where we are today.
The best thing that Obama could do is act immediately, and this might mean not giving banks and other industries big bailouts. Obama needs to give the American people at least $20,000 dollars to pay off existing debt and then they might have enough to spend on something they want. This would help jump start the economy. Doing nothing will only cause more problems in the long run.
In response to Annika,
I share the same concerns as you. I think this stimulus package is drastic and rushed and scary…probably a pretty accurate metaphor for America’s current idealism and emotional economics. And I completely agree; 2.5 trillion is way too much to go unprotected, or be spent unwisely.
However, the science of economics is one that is full of theories and free of facts. I feel like there are 1,000 different economic opinions, and they are all right, and they are all wrong. Who’s to say that this stimulus package won’t work? Who’s to say that it will? No one can predict the future, and it seems like this economic situation isn’t all that similar to anything our nation has experienced in the past. There are so many sources contributing to this crisis- oil, housing market, banks, stock market, credit, consumer attitudes- and it’ really difficult/impossible to control and fix all, or even one, of these sources.
Also, this economic failure is just painfully real. Local and corporate businesses are closing everywhere. I can think of 15 adults, with established careers, that have lost their jobs. The U.S. government, mostly the democrats, feels obligated to act somehow, help in whatever possible. And this, 2.5 trillion, is what they are doing. It may seem drastic, that’s only because it is. This may seem scary, that’s only because it is. But what are we, what are our politicians to do, but whatever they can? And I truly believe that our government is doing everything it can. There are no absolutes, everything is at risk, and support is essential. So, my main point, even though it’s a really difficult one, is faith. Everyone is nervous and fearful…the worst thing we can do is let those emotions consume us. Have faith that things will eventually be okay.
In response to Kellie: I agree. I think that this stimulus plan thing is all very confusing and it seems like no matter what if there is a stimulus plan passed it will just be a matter of luck if it works or not. I completely understand the fear and rational that since President Bush’s stimulus plan did not work it is very possible that this one is not going to work either. The part about this whole economic crisis that always gets me is that although everyone is always freaking out about the lack of money, there is no actual physical money at stake. It is all just numbers in computers and stuff. You would think that since there isn’t really any real hard money anyways, the government and banks could just wait this thing out until the economy picks up again. It is just all very confusing. I wonder what the world would be like if everyone could only use the money that they actually possessed instead of living their lives on credit. People wouldn’t be able to live so extravagantly, they would have to only spend as much money as they made, but I bet you there would not be a crisis this bad because no one would be in debt, and no one would be having their house foreclosed upon because they wouldn’t be living outside of their means. That is the real reason for this crisis, and it should be up to the people who caused it, that is, the American public, to fix it by stop being irresponsible with their finances instead of waiting around for the government to do it for them.