CE Week #2: “GOP’s electoral lock picked”
It was not all that long ago that political reporters were writing about “the Republican lock” on the White House. From 1972 to 1988, from Richard Nixon’s re-election through George H.W. Bush’s victory over Michael Dukakis, 24 states supported the GOP nominee each time.
By the end of the run, those states could deliver 219 electoral votes, leaving only 51 others to make up a majority.
But now the Republican electoral lock has been replaced and surpassed by “the blue wall.” That’s the term Ronald Brownstein, the political director of the Atlantic Media Company, applies to the Democrats’ advantage.
In an important article in a recent National Journal, Brownstein notes that there are now 18 states and the District of Columbia that have voted Democratic at least five times in a row, supporting Democrats from Bill Clinton through Barack Obama. Those states – concentrated in the Northeast, the upper Midwest and on the Pacific Coast – provide 248 electoral votes, 29 more than the old Republican lock and more than 90 percent of the Electoral College majority.
Democrats also hold at least 33 of the 36 Senate seats from those states (with the Minnesota race still undecided), 12 of the 18 governorships and the vast majority of House and legislative seats. The wall appears to be solid.
But as one who is more impressed with the volatility of American politics, especially in this age of lightly held or nonexistent party loyalties, I am skeptical of terms like “electoral lock” or “blue wall.”
Still, if real-world confirmation of Brownstein’s thesis were needed, the Republican National Committee furnished it on Jan. 30 when it elected Michael Steele, the former lieutenant governor of Maryland, as the first African-American to hold that post.
It was the clearest possible signal that the GOP realizes it must escape the shackles of its ideologically binding Southern strategy and compete in a more diverse, pragmatic and intellectually challenging environment.
I have written before about the way the election losses of 2006 and 2008 left the House and Senate Republicans even more dependent on those elected from Southern states. The attrition in the Northeast, Midwest and West has been heavy, and ever since Trent Lott and Newt Gingrich started the trend back in 1994, the national party has spoken more and more with a Southern drawl.
Brownstein noted that several of the 18 states in the blue wall had been part of the earlier Republican lock. California, Illinois, New Jersey and Vermont switched sides, in part as a reaction against a Republican Party dominated by the South and defined by its conservative positions on abortion, immigration, stem-cell research and the teaching of evolution.
The states that are part of the blue wall have distinctive characteristics. As Brownstein wrote, they “combine large numbers of well-educated, affluent and less-religious whites with substantial numbers of racial and ethnic minorities, including sizable immigrant populations.”
They rank high in the proportion of college graduates and residents who are foreign-born, and their median income tops the national average. They lag in church attendance. Every one of those traits makes them less receptive to the message being offered by most Republicans.
Maryland, where Michael Steele built his political base, and the District of Columbia, where he has practiced law, are building blocks of the blue wall. After losing a Senate race in 2006, Steele understands how great a disadvantage the party label is in places like his home. He is pro-life, as are most Republicans. But his message to his party is to broaden its appeal and to raise its sights. When Steele defeated the former Republican chairman of Lee Atwater’s and Strom Thurmond’s South Carolina, the ancestral home of the Southern strategy, in the final round of voting for the RNC chairmanship, it sent a dramatic signal of change from the old ways and the old alignments.
It will obviously take much more than that to put the GOP into a position to challenge the blue wall – and the hard fights all lie ahead, in the primaries for candidates in 2010 and 2012, and in the policy debates within the Senate and House GOP caucuses.
Clearly, Republicans have to change if they are going to climb that wall.
David S. Broder is a columnist for the Washington Post. His e-mail address is davidbroder@washpost.com.
Republicans need to get their act together. It seems like the more old people there are (and there are more now than ever), there should be more Republicans, right? Just kidding, but Democrats are getting a hold on America while the Republican Party simply needs to rethink its strategies. Like this article states, the South can no longer be depended on to win races, particularly presidential races, as “The Blue Wall” grows stronger and stronger. This could either be because the views of the American people are actually changing, or the media just likes to make a good story by blaming everything on Former-President Bush. This “Blue Wall” may actually be here to stay – time will tell. But, the Republicans sure do have a wall to climb up. More and more people continue to find themselves identifying with the Democratic Party, for whatever reason, and this contributes to clear party identification in certain spots in the U.S. I don’t believe those that claim themselves to be independents are now Democrats, but rather just believe more in their views for this point in time. Whether that remains the same will largely be the result of President Obama’s and the Democratic Congress’s success.
Connection: Party identification and demographics. The northeast is particularly becoming more and more Democratic with their votes. As mentioned, California has also switched its party identification in the last 20 or so years. This may be an even “Newer Deal” Coalition, but it may just be a temporary stronghold (due to the media I think). We will see.
“Clearly, Republicans have to change if they are going to climb that wall.” This statement basically sums up what the Republicans have to do if they are going to present any challenges in 2010 or 2012. The Republicans Party has been “dominated by the South and defined by its conservative positions on abortion, immigration, stem-cell research and the teaching of evolution.” It has gotten a Southern drawl and it needs to get rid of it because the Democrats have built a “wall” in the Electoral College. “These states – concentrated in the Northeast, the upper Midwest and on the Pacific Coast – provide 248 electoral votes, 29 more than the old Republican lock and more than 90 percent of the Electoral College majority.” The Democrats have also persuaded former Republican sates to join its party leaving the Republicans scratching their heads. However, with the appointment of Michael Steele, the former lieutenant Governor of Maryland, as the RNC chairman, it seems that the Republicans have realized they have to change if they are going to survive.
I found it interesting that the “blue wall” has distinctive characteristics. “As Brownstein wrote, they ‘combine large numbers of well-educated, affluent and less-religious whites with substantial numbers of racial and ethnic minorities, including sizable immigrant populations.’” This shows that the Democrats know what they have to do to get the votes and that if they keep sending the right message they will hold a strong Electoral majority for quite some time.
Connection: Coalitions. There have been many coalitions throughout our political history. FDR’s New Deal Coalition is the best example. This article talks about the Democrats new Coalition and the Republicans old one.
It may be hard for Republican to change to reach out to a broader spectrum of voters. Republican values are Republican values and it is hard to stretch a position such as pro-life or anti-homosexuality. How do you stretch across that line and bring in unlikely voters? It is obviously not easily done. It is a reasonable concern though, to be losing support for your party. The Republicans lost, lost, lost in the last election. Democrats are on top and Republicans are fuming. Politics are often annoying to me because of the whole partisanship thing. It really irritates me when people vote against or for a bill just to be partisan. Politicians get so wrapped up in the “politics” that they sometimes forget the common good.
It is interesting that 18 states have voted Democratic five times in a row. Have the Republicans stopped to think that maybe their candidates are just weak in terms of representing Republican values? There are always going to be states that are more Democrat than Republican and vica versa. I’m not sure that can be changed except with a generation. I wonder if the Democrats were complaining or still are about the solid south? Doesn’t the “blue wall” offer some kind of contrast?
Connection: We talked in class about how John McCain wasn’t necessarily a strong “republican” candidate. This may be direct evidence too support these 18 states going democratic. Strong party candidates are classified as having strong party values. The key is to make one moderate enough to appeal to different types of voters without losing the support one already has.
I agree that the Republican Party needs to rethink its strategies, and overall it needs to broaden their thinking. But from looking at Micheal Steele, the author takes on the attitude that Republicans should be more like Democrats. There are many things that each party can learn from one another, but they should not be exact proto-types just to gain votes. It’s good that our parties aren’t the same! If they were, there wouldn’t be any choices for the American people, and remember that most changes are influenced by the times. The Republicans will have their time again and will regain votes, but for right now the Democrats are in a position of power with a ton of mistakes to fix. Thus, the Republicans can regain their votes in one of two ways; 1. They can wait to see if the Democrats fail and then steal away all of their votes for the next election, or 2. They can revise their strategies into making government sound like a network, where parties will take obvious positions but come together in the direst of times. At this point, trying to go for a “sympathy” vote or a co -operational vote could not hurt.
Connection: Nature of the Times
Although I am a democrat, i will admit that the previous administration faced some very difficult and unexpected choices. Because of this, they will pay the price, and it obviously did not help the Republicans to keep their seats in the 2008 elections. Because of these “nature of the Times”, what has been called the worse economic downturn since the depression, the Democrats received credit for being the “saviors”. Thus, depending on how these “Times” go, the Republicans may or may not win back their votes. This will be something for the future to decide.
If the republicans want a chance in the primaries of 2010 and 2012 they will have to change their tactics. And this last election has revealed that Republicans can not rely upon on “those elected from Southern states”. The GOP has already taken steps in changing its strategy in how it will “compete in a more diverse, pragmatic and intellectually challenging environment” with the election of Michael Steele. And though it won’t be easy, I think Republicans need to start reaching out to some of the groups less responsive to them to gain more of a foot hold for these coming primaries.
The democrats have lured a few republican states to their side enabling them to build this blue wall with “large numbers of well-educated, affluent and less-religious whites with substantial numbers of racial and ethnic minorities, including sizable immigrant populations.” Democrats now have “more than 90 percent of the Electoral College majority”, and they have the media working for them as well with people still blaming bush and the republican for the current economic situation. Democrats are sitting very well in government today, and they could keep this position for a good while if Obama has a successful term.
Connection: Party Identification. I think that because people no longer have strong party ties that the majority of people now independent are easily being swayed to following the democrats because they think that Republican put them into the economic situation we are in.