Summer CE Week #2: “Can McCain Back in Again?”
July 28, 2008
By Robert Novak
WASHINGTON — In the contest for president, Barack Obama is a magnetic candidate supported by a disciplined, well-organized campaign. John McCain seems wooden, with a campaign that appears to be in shambles. Yet Obama’s lead in the polls over McCain is fragile because he so far has not won the support of a majority of American voters.
An effective and massively publicized foreign trip failed to push Obama to the 50 percent mark. Hopes of Democrats and fears of Republicans that he would get a major bounce in the polls when he clinched the nomination and then on his campaigning abroad have not been realized.
Overnight surveys by Gallup and Rasmussen for the past two weeks have shown Obama hovering around 46 percent, while McCain has declined from 45 percent to 41 percent after the wild acclaim for Obama in Berlin, for a 6-point deficit that is by no means insurmountable. These numbers have prompted speculation among Republican political practitioners that McCain can back into the presidency, just as he backed into his party’s nomination.
Not even Bob Dole’s dismal candidacy in 1996 generated less enthusiasm in GOP ranks than McCain’s current effort. However, in winning the nomination this year, when he had been counted out after the disintegration of his campaign structure, McCain showed more fortitude than skill. He was blessed by a weak field of Republican competitors, who eliminated each other and left McCain as the last man standing.
But Obama is no Huckabee, Giuliani or Romney. He is the most spectacular campaigner of his generation, with appeal well beyond Democratic ranks. That he lingers below the 50 percent mark is a mystery among politicians of both parties. It is particularly troubling to Democrats who recall past Democratic candidates taking a huge lead over the summer before being overtaken or nearly overtaken by a surging Republican opponent. In 1976, Jimmy Carter took a 33-point summer lead over President Gerald Ford and won in a photo finish. In 1988, Michael Dukakis led George H.W. Bush by 17 points after being nominated in Atlanta before he lost the election. Al Gore and John Kerry were ahead of George W. Bush in the summer.
One candid Republican consultant says that the massive Carter and Dukakis summer leads were illusory, based on large generic Democratic leads. But their generic lead is back at 15 points after 12 years of a Republican Congress and eight years of George W. Bush.
Clearly, Obama has not yet closed the deal with the people to accept a young, inexperienced African-American as their president. Obama had virtually clinched the nomination when white working men in Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia poured out to vote and carried their states comfortably for Hillary Clinton. It was not because of unalterable affection for her.
Obama’s difficulty in reaching the 50 percent mark reflects an overwhelmingly white undecided vote at 10 to 15 percent.
These were target voters for Obama when he ventured into the war zones to demonstrate his mettle as a future commander in chief. He looked good, sounded good and committed no serious gaffes. But sitting by the popular Gen. David Petraeus and disagreeing with his military judgment may not have been the way to win over undecided white working men.
The toughest interrogation of Obama was CBS anchor Katie Couric’s in Jordan last Tuesday. She asked four different times whether the troop surge he had opposed was instrumental in reducing violence in Iraq. Each time, Obama answered straight from talking points by citing “the great effort of our young men and women in uniform.” That sounded like the old politics. He would have sounded more like a new politician if he had simply said, “Yes, the strategy did work.” That would have infuriated anti-war activists, but not enough for them to drop Obama.
Several Democrats I have talked to noted that recent Democratic presidents got elected with a minority of the vote and also that McCain is further below the 50 percent standard than Obama. But McCain, running a flawed campaign in a big Democratic year, is dangerously close. He still could back in unless Obama closes the deal.
I for one am disgusted by the amount of people who are undecided, simply over the issue of race. As the article eludes to many white working men voted for Hilary just to keep Obama from office. I think that the two candidates put forward by the Democratic party should have been different. They were forcing the racists and sexists to decide between candidates, and I am sure that they lost many votes simply because Americans could not come to vote for a black man or a white woman. That these are even factors in a decision that will influence our country for the next four years infuriates me. That these candidates are being judged upon anything other than their competence, in every field that is dealt with in the presidency, should make America be ashamed. We are the ones who fled from other countries to a new land to escape oppression or discrimination, and yet we are the ones who are discriminating in our voting. The Democrats chose the wrong candidates for our day and age, these issues are still to rampant in America for them to have put forth these candidates. While they may have won sympathy votes from women and African Americans, they have not been enough to win them the presidency.
I suppose McCain could be back in the race again, it is a very real possibility. McCain is only behind Obama by five percent, and in the past, presidents have been known to make significant progress in the last home stretch. An example from the article is President Carter, who increased his campaign by 33 percent. Nobody suspected Carter to become president and was not highly thought of among the public. He had terrible times speaking to large numbers of people and couldn’t seem to grasp the nation. This could possibly happen again with McCain. A more recent example as well would be George W. Bush and his election. More people seemed to be in favor of Al Gore, and the Florida voting complications did not seem to hold anything promising for George W; and yet he somehow won the presidency anyways. Obama cannot consider his campaign a free ride or consider McCain to be down and out. Obama has a solid campaign and offers new beginnings for our country, but he must carry it out until the bitter end. However, if he continues to let his campaign slip, such as the incidents with Katie Couric and her interviews, McCain could find a way to steal the show or let Obama ruin himself.
I liked the part in this article about Obama’s interview with Katie Couric. I watched that interview, and i would go even farther than the author of this article did, and say that Obama was completely avoiding saying anything that would suggest that the Republican strategy worked to reduce violence.
This article brings up some good points about how Obama hasnt won the election yet, even though his campaigning is strong.
This Article also brings up that McCain isn’t a strong campaigner and he isnt even close to winning the election in the polls yet. So far this election seems like, based on this article, a tie between two not very strong candidates. One of them is a weak campaigner, and i guess the other one just isn’t what people want because he campaigns amazingly (go watch some of his speaches on youtube, and you will know what I’m talking about… i’m talking about Obama if you didn’t catch that).
The one thing that wasn’t addressed was why. I can guess that people dont like McCain because of a bunch of obvious reasons dealing with his age and conservatism, but i want to know about why Obama isn’t winning in the polls. The article said a couple of things about why he hasnt gained more support, but i’m still at a loss for why he isn’t leading McCain by more.
Has it ever come to mind how do “political” standings numbers arise. I have wondered for a long time. Is it those anoying phone calls that ask you to push a button on your phone. That some people are so annoyed by that they close their eyes and push a button. It always supprises me when they say that these are conservative standings. Does that mean you flipped a coin 1 hundred times and if it landed on heads 46 times Obama is leading by 46 percent. And for the undecided, how do they automatically assume that all of the 10-15 percent of undecided voters are white. I would like to know what percent of the population is undecided other than the white or black what about the Asain and Native American and other backrounds do they not matter enough to be included. Also, it seems as if Obama and McCain always are talking about what they crowd they are speaking to that day want. I want a hard list with bullet points of what they are going to do, so that I can cross things off as they go and then judge them. Politics seem to get wrapped up in I can do this and I can do that but going through with things seems to be some peoples week points. I don’t know what will happen, and I probably won’t get my list but I can always hope.
In response to Amanda, I’d like to quickly clarify something for her. As I understand it, Amanda believes that “all of the 10-15 percent of undecided voters are white.” I believe the author was trying to suggest that 10-15% of ALL WHITE VOTERS are undecided, which makes sense given that they still cannot decided whether to vote for an African-American candidate or not. I do agree, though, that it would be rather interesting to be acquainted with the current voting patterns of minorities in different areas of the United States. As for McCain’s chances of gaining back some respect (and important votes), these next few months will be extremely critical in terms of appearance, persuasion, and delivery.
this article speaks very little to me. all i’m getting out of it is that obama is wiinning the polls, but several times in the past the republican won the election with a huge comeback. i enjoyed that part of the article. also, jimmy carter won too, but whatever, he sucked anyways. hmm, i believe that obama’s incredible oratory skills are helping him a lot, but i also think that we might have another silent majority like back in the reagan days. we might see another comeback victory just becuase the middleclass americans tend to side with the conservatives more than the liberal weiners, or as Arnie calls them “economic girlymen”. I love the govenator.
besides, Mccain has a long, long history of serving this country, as navy pilot, arizona govenor and maybe some legislative stuff in between i dunno, but the point is, even though John Mccain is putting out a wimpy campaign right now, trying to win over a few “economic girlymen” i’m sure that once he sits down in the oval office he will get down to business and lead our nation undaunted into the perilous future. through thick and thin Mccain will lead us, not with our jaws flapping away in the wind, but with guns blazing and bombs ready to detonate enemies of our great nation.
one last comment, the racist people in Ohio, West Virginia and Pennsylvania should be blinded so they can’t tell what color peoples skin is. then they can’t be racist anymore!
It is possible to come back and win the presidential election. McCain is behind Obama by five percent and history shows that it is possible to win the election in the last home stretch. But, it also depends on the way people will vote, because there are some people who are still undecided because they are not okay with Barack Obama’s race. I find it sad that today in America people are still judged because of the color of their skin or where they came from. We shouldn’t vote for people based on the color of their skin, and this shows how judgmental Americans can truly be. If McCain is going to win the presidential election, he needs to be more publicly active (interviews, speeches, etc.) rather than having interviews that no one wants to watch. This could be what makes or breaks McCain’s campaign. But if Obama is going to win the election he needs to gain the trust and votes of all Americans, rather than just blacks and women. If only blacks and women vote for Obama, McCain will win the election. Also, both candidates need to answer questions truthfully rather than avoiding answering the question, because this shows that they don’t have a stance on the issue or they don’t want that answer to affect the way people will vote. But if Obama keeps doing well and staying in the public’s eye, he very well could win the election. I also think that people will want to vote for someone newer, because they are tired of Bush policies, and McCain has a tendency to act just like Bush. If McCain is going to win, he needs to change some of his policies. But only time will tell because if they slip up, the other candidate could win. PEOPLE NEED TO VOTE BASED ON IDEAS, NOT ON THE COLOR OF THEIR SKIN OR HOW MUCH PUBLICITY THEY HAVE!!
In response to what Nicole has said, I agree wholeheartedly with her. I believe these statistics that we see from the article are the percentage of the popular vote that each candidate has. Now, as most of you know we have the electoral college which actually votes for the president. A candidate does not need a majority of the popular vote to win the presidency, simply a majority of the electoral vote. The college is supposed to vote as their state has voted, but they are not bound to do so. It is also my belief that the older generations have a bit more of a well rounded base of racism. As in more are racist, but not to the extremes that we see in some of the younger people of our generation. With that belief and the knowledge that most politicians are older white males, I believe that Obama will need quite a bit of an advantage over McCain to win the presidency.
The one factor that stumps me is the fact that if Obama is so well liked then he should honestly have no problem with the polls; there has to be a reason why America hasn’t already chosen its president for the 2008 election besides his race. Besides the fact that McCain is old and his campaigning may not always be completely promising I don’t understand the problem with him. Along with other reasons I don’t understand Obama when he says he will bring about the change in America that we need. Of course everyone wants change because what President Bush is doing is not the plan that America is comfortable with. McCain will always have a chance to come back and shock America with his hope for the country until election time. If McCain wasn’t a proper candidate for the job than Obama’s percentage for the election would be higher and then this article would never have been posted but something isn’t right with Obama. I do believe that when election time comes that race will not be the issue; I think people will look beyond the color of skin and will hopefully choose the right candidate for the job. The one problem with having an older generation is that some people will still carry their racial issues to the voting booth from concerns dating all the way back to the days of Martin Luther King Jr.
In response to Eric and Ashleys comments: Sure some people vote for different canidates based on race, but not as much as you are blowing it up to be. It doesn’t help that Obama is playing the race card – at one point people seemd to say “who are you going to vote for: Are you sexist or are you racist.” It’s seems an argument that when you are stuck you can just throw it out there. What about black people who are voteing for Barak Obama just because he is black and not for McCain? Why isn’t that racism, how come you never hear about that?
In the article the auther is probably a Democrat and one of Obama’s followers. He seems to be praising Obama evey stem of the way. The author is confued on why McCain is doing so well; what he is missing is that McCain is not a true consevative, he is on both sides of the fence. Because McCain is so close to the left yet close enought to the right any democrat who doesn’t want Obama will vote McCain and conservatives are basacally stuck with McCain.
So while the author is stuck in his awe of Obamas charisma he is missing a vital point. He is also underestimating McCain saying that Giuliani and Romney are waek opponents is far from the truth – media simply likes the left more they can tollerate McCain so they creat a bad image of the conservatives.
First, I must comment on Roy’s response AKA Zach. Wilkes. I loved how violent your idea of McCain leading our nation was, but i feel it might be a little irresponsible to just nuke away our fears. I mean, i suppose we are supposed to face them, but just blowing them up so we never have to see them again, not so good. Hmm, but then again, how great would the world be if it was all American! (Oh dear, i just had a Hitler realization…) We would have no enemies, except the “liberal weinies” that try to promote gay-dom (completely WRONG!) in our country. Anyways, back to Zach’s er, Roy’s comment. And i agree with the blinding of southern people. Racism is bad.
“Clearly, Obama has not yet closed the deal with the people to accept a young, inexperienced African-American as their president.” There could honestly be no truer statement with Obama’s situation. As my dad says, “I don’t care if 90% of America says they are going to vote for Obama, McCain will win because people of America don’t want a black president.” They aren’t ready for one, and don’t want to have to deal with the issues of the minorities instead of the majorities. Obama seems to be a fantastic leader, because McCain seems to be following him. (You know, the whole situation with Obama going to Middle East, and McCain leaving to go to South America I believe it was.) Obama has great “oratory skills” as Zach put it, and that is one aspect a president needs to have. Because in times of fear, we will need someone there to comfort us from our fears, and inspire us to crush our enemies. Well, actually, the latter part is not so true, because Obama is a liberal weenie, and would never send our troops to war… Anways, Obama is, afterall, in the lead right now over McCain. But you wait and see, that 10-15% of undecided whites will vote for their white leader, and McCain will win. It’s just as I said before, people aren’t ready for a black leader. Maybe some other day, Obama.
This article caught my attention because it stated that McCain’s campaign is disorganized compared to Obama’s. It is interesting that we don’t hear as much about McCain as we do about Obama, but the reason for that, I think, is that Obama is trying much harder than McCain is. I also was unaware that Obama is in fact doing better in the pols than McCain is, so, at the moment, I am pleased at that. As previous articles have pointed out, McCain could easily turn out to be another Bush, and I think America is ready for a change. I did notice the other day that gas prices dropped 6 cents and as off topic as this may seem, I am hoping for the best. In “Hardball” Chris Matthews states that before a presidential election, the economy does go in to a recession, and then is boosted right back up after the election to make the new president look good. Or at least that is how it should be. I hope that our economy does recover and that gas does drop. I noticed that someone responded to one of my other responses where I was saying that my vote for the next president will be based on who will make gas prices lower. The person who responded to me made a good point of saying that America does have it good, and in Europe, gas is far more expensive than ours is. I fully understand that, but still, I think that gas is ridiculous and that our government needs to find alternative sources of energy.
I am also wondering where do these numbers come from?
This is getting to be pretty sad if that “10%-15%” is undecided because they are torn whether to choose an old war hero who seems as to continue what Bush is doing or a young black man wanting change all because they arent sure whether they want another 4 years of a Bush style government or whether that should vote for someone who is black. I figured this country would have gotten better about racial stuff after the race riots but I guess not. Personally I think it would be good for this country to see more than the change that has been talked about and see the first African American president. It would make for a complete 180 degree flip for America.
If people are voting just based on whats on the outside such as looks, how they dress or color of their skin then they shouldnt be voting. People should be voting based on how well this candidate would benefit the country.
This isnt good if people are actually voting and willing to give up what they agree with just so they dont have to see either candidate in office. What is this nation coming to? 10%-15% is a large amount to be undecided. This election could go either way. I just hope that those 10-15% are voting on who they think would do better not voting based of physical charachteristics.
I think it would have been fine for Obama to say the troop surge worked, but he should have also said this: The troop surge has worked to reduce violence. It makes sense if you throw thousands of additional soldiers on the streets it will lead to a dicline in violence because there are more soldiers to prevent that violence. However, when you take those troops away the violence will reappear. By no means is the troop surge an exit strategy honestly Bush insulted American intelligence. He put over 20,000 additional troops into Iraq and promised to remove those 20,000 troops by 2010. What a positive step towards ending the war, putting us right back where we started; good job there George. Obama should be dominating the polls you can’t deny the fact that he is running a brilliant campaign. The reason has to be race. As stated in the article, it is the 10 to 15% male white vote. You can’t deny racism is a factor because it so blatantly is. Frankly some people just aren’t comfortable with blacks. My Grandmother is a perfect example. She has been active in the Democratic party her whole life; she was also an avid Hilary Clinton supporter. She is telling our family she will not vote for Obama for his immigration policy because that is the only thing that she cares about. Obama and Clinton had the same immigration policy. My Grandma is racist whether she will admit it or not. The only reason Obama is not dominating the polls is because some Americans just are not ready for the first black president. Obama 08′
Why do these people care about who is winning in the summer? I don’t know how they figure these statistics out, but it doesn’t seem to work very well because George W. Bush was losing to Al Gore and John Kerry but still ended up winning the election.
It says that Obama has had difficulties reaching the 50 percent mark because of a 10 to 15 percent undecided white vote. Why then would he do something stupid like disagreeing with an army general? That is a great way to lose those undecided votes. A man as distinguished as general should be listened to in a wartime situation. (obviously) “He ventured into the war zones to demonstrate his mettle as a future commander in chief. But sitting by the popular General David Petraeus and disagreeing with his military judgment” Obama does not have the experience, nor the power to talk like this to his own countries generals.
When Katie Couric asked Obama whether the troop surge he had opposed was instrumental, Obama avoided answering the question directly because it did work. It reduced violence in Iraq. If a troop surge reduced violence then why wouldn’t Obama pledge to keep our troops in, to maybe put an end to the violence?
Response to Roy Wilkes
First of all I agree that liberals are indeed wieners. And that McCain will lead us successfully when he is voted president. He has proven himself strong enough to do anything, surviving a Vietnam POW camp. I would like nothing more that for a leader who takes more strong actions with guns than with speeches. Might makes right if I may steal your quote.
I talked with an Iraq veteran a couple of days ago who spoke about his disgust with democratic leaders. “They care more about the environment and the economy, even if it means milking the military funds.” He talked about Bill Clinton sending the National Guard into Iraq, when the National Guard was make to protect in the homeland for fighting fires, etc.
John McCain could very well come back into the campaign. Everyone thought his campaign was over during the Republican primary. Yet here he stands as the Republican presidential nominee. However, as the author stated, he was up against Huckabee, Romney, and Giuliani, conservatives in an America where, at this point, conservatism is not looked upon favorable after the policies of the current administration. McCain does have a chance to come back, but with the current issues that America faces, it would have to be only if Obama does not close the deal.
However, Obama lagging in the polls does not make sense, until you consider the race factor. While some claim that immediately jumping to play the race card is unfair, it is ultimately true. In the West Virginia primary, several voters were interviewed stated they voted for Clinton over Obama because Obama was black. Another issue in the undecided factor is the claims that Obama is, or was, a Muslim. While he did indeed go to a mosque, it was when he was in elementary school, and it was where his parents took him. He didn’t have a choice to go there. Besides, what difference does his religion make in politics, particularly in a country where there is separation of church and state?
This article was enlightening. First off, it showed me that the Presidential race has the potential to be very close. Although hopefully the race doesn’t turn out to be as close as the 2000 election was, with a billion recounts in Florida. It make me wonder what is going to happen come November. Will change be at the forefront and win the election or will Americans stick with an old guy who very closely resembles Bush?
The second thing that was enlightening in this article was the fact that so many people are making race a bigger issue then it should be. “White undecided at 10 to 15 percent.” I think that this is ridiculous. Race should not be bigger then the ideas a person has or the campaign he is running. People need to understand that race will not be the major issue in the election and that they should be paying attention to what the candidates are saying not what they look like.
Will McCain be able to get back in the election and give Obama a run for his money? I think he has his work cut out for him. He is going to have to fix his campaign and pick a good candidate as his VP. I think the election is going to get interesting.