CE Week #3: “McCain will be tough to beat”
David S. Broder
The Washington Post
February 7, 2008
The continuing drama of the race for the Democratic presidential nomination should not diminish what John McCain has accomplished on the Republican side of this campaign.
The senator from Arizona still has to finish off the challenges from Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee, but after Tuesday’s victories in such key states as California, New York, Illinois, New Jersey and Missouri, and a commanding lead in delegates, the question is when, not if, he will secure the nomination.
Were it not for the suspense in the contest between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, the saga of McCain’s eight-month struggle from the brink of political bankruptcy last summer to his current supremacy would be the most riveting narrative of the year.
What is more, he has emerged – despite all the negatives of the George Bush legacy – as a serious possibility to win the presidency in November.
On Super Tuesday, I placed calls to a number of knowledgeable Republicans, Democrats and neutral observers to check their appraisals of McCain as a general-election candidate. I found him consolidating support within his own party and being treated with great respect by Democrats.
Arizona’s Democratic Gov. Janet Napolitano, who sees her home-state senator at close range, said, “He is not to be underestimated.” An Obama supporter, Napolitano said McCain is “a gifted campaigner with a great life story. When everything seemed to go wrong for him last year, I told people, ‘Never write John McCain off.’ ”
Former North Carolina Gov. Jim Hunt, neutral since John Edwards withdrew from the race, told me he thought McCain would be “very tough” competition. Don Fowler, the former Democratic National Committee chairman and a Clinton supporter, who saw McCain campaign successfully in his state of South Carolina, said, “He is the best possible candidate for the Republicans by any measure I can see.”
There were some dissents. Gail Kaufman, a savvy California Democrat, said that McCain’s policy positions, including his anti-abortion stance, would cripple him in that state.
But I was struck by the warming tone toward McCain from conservative Republicans I reached in Wisconsin, Ohio and Louisiana, despite the barrage of criticism from Rush Limbaugh and Co.
And Newt Gingrich told me, “We disagree on some issues, but I’d rather fight him in the White House than either of those Democrats. He has come back because of one thing: his courage. As a populist, I love it.”
That message is underlined by the recent Washington Post-ABC News poll. It showed McCain in a statistical tie with either Democrat, leading Clinton by 49 percent to 46 percent and trailing Obama by a similar margin.
In either scenario, women break for the Democratic candidate. McCain leads Clinton by 13 points among men, but only runs even with Obama. Party lines are sharp, and the battle for independents would be close. Currently, independents give McCain a 12-point lead over Clinton but favor Obama by 6 points over the Republican.
A fascinating dynamic appears when voters are asked to judge the candidates’ strength and experience versus their new ideas and potential for bringing change. McCain and Clinton match closely in both dimensions, while McCain leads Obama by 20 points on strength and experience, but Obama has a 31-point edge on representing a new direction.
Clearly, McCain’s age will be more of an issue in the general election than in the primaries. And so will his steadfast position on Iraq, symbolized by his support of the troop surge and his declaration that U.S. troops might have to remain there for 100 years. In the Post poll, McCain is competitive with Clinton and Obama on both the economy and health care, though trailing slightly, but he loses badly among voters for whom the war in Iraq is the top issue. Tim Hibbits, an independent pollster in Oregon, said, “People admire McCain’s principled stand against cutting and running, but it doesn’t answer the question why the hell we are there.”
Still, McCain is the only candidate in either party with a favorable personal rating by Republicans, Democrats, independents and evangelical voters. He will be formidable.
Here is my chance to correct myself from one of my earlier comments: we now know that Mitt Romney “suspended” his campaign, basically dropping out. And after Super Tuesday, it is also clear that McCain will more than likely be the candidate. And I think that I am beginning to see just why people like him (not that I agree with it, but I am seeing it all the same). It is his appeal to the liberals as well as conservatives. John McCain is not and has never been “more conservative” as some of the former candidates, and that exactly why he is garnering support from democratic leaders as well, such as Arizona’s Governor Janet Napolitano (D) as mentioned in the article. His ideas clearly appeal to a wider range of the United States population, whether it is independents or republicans, though certainly not many democrats (he still is conservative, after all). But speaking in terms of popularity, he is running a pretty even race with the democratic candidates, while Mike Huckabee is nowhere to be seen in the statistics. I will stand by what I said in my other post – Huckabee is going nowhere and is soon likely to drop out. And when he does, the remaining man left to the republicans will be…John McCain.
~Liz
In response to Liz, as I put in my name box, I have a couple questions and a few comments.
What if Huckabee DOESN’T drop out? Ron Paul still hasn’t (though heaven knows WHY he hasn’t dropped out). So if he does not leave the race, does he even stand a chance against McCain? He seems to have many supporters. What is the ratio of this chance, if there even IS one?
Personally, I know that I don’t lean in John McCain’s direction mainly because of his position on the war. As Liz said, he is indeed “running a pretty even race with the democratic candidates”, and I’m just a little surprised that his position on the war has not detered voters from going for him. From what I’ve read, heard, seen, etc… most people want this to be done with. I was a little confused as to why so many people are voting for him, but my dad cleared it up for me.
“It’s not like a line item veto. You have to take the whole package. You can’t just pick something you don’t like about them and say ‘We don’t want that in our presidency. You’ll have to change your mind.’ If you are taking a candidate, you are taking the WHOLE candidate, not just the things you like.”
And he’s right.
Now Liz, you stated this: “We now know that Mitt Romney “suspended” his campaign, basically dropping out.”
We discussed this in class, I do believe…again, is there a slim chance that we could see Romney back in action here sometime? I don’t know…did he just run out of money? I don’t think he is finished yet, to be honest.
This is all just speculation though, pardon me if any of my statements offended.
Speculation can get people in trouble though, especially if it deals with politics…maybe I should stop now. X-p
Re: Mizz Vogt
Do you know what drives me nutty-bananas? Well, what drives me bonkers –up-the-wall three shades of purple is when people say McCain isn’t very conservative. Who told you that and why do you believe them. He is as or more conservative than president Bush (except for the gaybashing thing). President W. is stark-eyed liberal (actually did inhale) on exactly one issue, the one McCain is liberal on—immigration. (You’ll recall Bush’s amnesty+ plan; he might as well have been wearing a blue tie, for the jese sake.) McCain has this issue he is liberal on, and is willing to accept, when forced, the conservative view (the AZ state policy is strictly no-tolerance). McCain is an enormous conservative. He opposes Row V. Wade, gun control, and funding for the (liberal devil) PBS. He supports the death penalty and defense buildups and constitutional amendments outlawing flagburning, and even throws his weight behind teacher-led school prayer (don’t let living in Spokane blind you to how batbleep insane that makes one look to the rest of the nation). He voted to convict at Clintons impeachment trial… twice. He’s pro war-on-drugs, pro tax-cuts-for-the-rich (let’s build the top-floor first, folks), pro-big business, and pro the-rights-of-logging-companies-to-clearcut-if they-wanna. He is Bush with a speaking voice. He stands behind the man when he makes speeches about the surges startling success, and when pressed on his stance on the war, his cited reason for being better than the rest is, “we shoulda done the surge earlier.”
Why’s he winning? Whale, as we learned in semester one campaigns aren’t about issues. Not anymore they’re not; they’re about what tie you wear on Good Morning America, and who endorses your charming smile, and your charming smile. Less than 10% of Obama voters at any given primary could name one policy he’d sponsored or cosponsored in the Senate, but they voted for him because he’s for change (changing what?— shucks I dunno—and could you name one?), he’s young, vibrant, speaks well, and has two cutie-pie daughters. It’s ephemeral. It’s ephemeral all. And the reason that you believe he’s not conservative is ephemera—he’s mega-for campaign finance reform, which everyone else “is” too, but he actually is, and so when these establishment hacks have to up-onto-feet and clap for appearances they get a little angry, they like the status quo—it’s how they’re millionaires. And so those establishment hacks go to the other establishment beneficiaries (TALK radio) and they over-eye wool tons of constituents and electors and voters alike.
I’d rather participate in speculation then assumption.
It’s not just your dad’s “line-item veto” theory that McCain has working for him. Some people actually agree with his controversial policy stances. Some people believe in the moral, and even economical reasons for the war in Iraq. Many choose to support McCain concerning his Pro-Life policy, an argument which seems to becoming more non-partisan. There are pro-life Democrats, and there are Pro-Choice Republicans, titles that are far less contradictory then they were, say, a decade ago. This is what’s so interesting about the McCain Campaign. Doubtful moderates and Democrats criticise him for his aforementioned Conservative principals, and the hard-lining Conservatives heckle him as a Democratic Sympathizer for his moderate policies on immigration and granting amnesty to illegal immigrants from Mexico. The automatic assumption would be that both sides abandon him– yet the evidence is strong that McCain is actually *consolidating* both of these groups for the win.
I read in another article posted on the blog that, in comparing Obama, Clinton, and McCain, that McCain had more negatives then Obama, but Clinton had more negatives the McCain. Unless speaking of commonwealth negatives, characteristics that 100% of Americans agree have no place in the white house, statements like that have little/no merit, and should be dismissed by the end of this sentence. It’s easy to get caught up in. I have said many, many bad things about Ron Paul. But I was wrong about the amount of support he garnered, especially locally. Ron Paul earned 52% of the delegates in Spokane. It was wrong of me to say that the supporters of Ron Paul were on the extreme, and a fringe group. I went as far as to compare them to Trekkies. The support for Paul is comparable to how a third party works. While I do not support Paul, the level of support he has received in my area has lead me to the conclusion that those in my area find truth in what he says, and were I a politician, I would have to consider this if I were running for a local office.
This is a frightening prospect. While Bush struggles to bring revolution to Afghanistan, Ron Paul might have just succeeded in bringing rEVOLution to Spokanistan.
NC – Grammar
McCain really does have a good shot at this presidency. I am seriously surprised that canadates haven’t started to attack his age. With the ol’ ticker nearing its final stages as a productive organ, other canadates seem like they would have tons of room for negative ads poking away at the old guy. As far as him getting the republican nomination, it would take a miracle for anyone but McCain to get the nomination. He pretty much has the cat in the bag. All he has to wait for is Obama and Hillary to go for eachother’s throats and leave no one else on the democratic side but the little known Mike Gravel. Now that would be some election. All of the vegas betters that we have talked about in class im sure wouldn’t guess that happening. As we found out in AP GO PO, once canadates start to really to go negative with attacking the other canadates, it really doesn’t benefit either canadate that much. One of them gets their horrible actions unrevealed, while the other one gets targeted for not playing fair and trying to punch below the belt.
Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have been neck-in-neck competing for a win in each state. It’s hard to determine who will be the overall Democratic nominee. Yet, on the Republican side, regardless of the win here-and-there by Mike Huckabee and the attempts by Ron Paul, it’s clear that the Republicans already have their man – John McCain. It doesn’t matter the ideology of the voter, McCain has support all over the board. No matter the issue, a lot would side with McCain. Except for one issue. And that is the war. However, while Iraq is a hot topic for most, the fact that it is the only issue in which he would be trailing Obama and Clinton as far as support goes, it would seem that he is doing fairly well. To get not only the Republicans, but the Democrats, the Independents, and the evangelical voters (who apparently are a separate category), McCain looks really good on paper. Though, his age seems to concern just about everyone – having most wondering if we are going to put in play the twenty-fifth amendment (the filling of the presidential role by the vice-president if the president happens to resign, die, be removed from office, or debilitated in such a way where he cannot fulfill his duties). It seems to be such a concern that it even has Mike Huckabee still in the race – a candidate who likes to flaunt his age to show the contrast from McCain’s. Does Huckabee have a chance again McCain? I don’t think so. But if age does happen to get the best of McCain, Huckabee will swoop in and take control.
NC – Proof Read
This article is so flawed in many ways and I strongly disagree with it. I might be that I lean a little more left than most moderates, but that said he might be the strongest candidate they have in the race right now because Mike Huckabee just got his rise to power in the resent weeks not giving him enough time to catch the so wanted John McCain. Not only did he almost run out of money this summer, but Rudy Giuliani was the front runner in this race and didn’t get off to a good start leave McCain the second best to try and win. And if he such the wanted candidate then why is Mike Huckabee even having a chance with him and all these die hard republicans are making comment about how they will go campaign for Hillary if McCain wins the nomination. Of course Newt Gingrich would rather have his party member I n the white house over a democrat, even if he is a little left.
This article to me seems to be a promotion for McCain making it seem like he is the candidate that will win votes from both party’s, which could be true, but irrelevant, he does have some liberal ideas. I doubt how loyal these democrats are saying thing like they would support McCain. Only republicans do that and Joe Lieberman (a democratic superdelgate who supported McCain).
Basically, I think this article is completely biased toward McCain in the election. The old geezer hardly has anyone else running…and even if he did, it wouldn’t compare to the race going on the Democratic side between Hillary and Obama. However, I find several flaws [at least to me they’re flaws] within this article. First off, it says that McCain needs to now “finish off the challenges from Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee”. This, to me, makes no sense, because I didn’t think that Romney was a challenge anymore. Kautzman said that Romney suspended his campaign, but that almost nothing will bring him out. Romney is now only waiting for the next election to try and validate his running then; so why exactly is he a threat to McCain? Next, the article says that McCain’s age is going to be more of an issue now…and why shouldn’t it be? Seriously, this guy is old! He could die at anytime; I hate to sound so frigid, but it’s true. If we are going to elect McCain, then we ought to think about the 25th amendment we learned about, and focus more so on who is going to be Vice President because whoever that is will be first in line to take ol’ McCain’s spot. I think it’s really cool that McCain has found such successful from all ideological based people, however, I think too think it’s far too late for him to run our country.
I’d like to write this in response to a few people’s comments.
I agree with Liz completely in her statement about Huckabee. I honestly don’t think he has much of a chance now. It’s a lost cause in my point of view because how can he possible catch up to McCain now after his winning streak. It just seems unrealistic. Same goes for Ron Paul, I don’t quite understand why he would still want to run seeing how he is worst off than Huckabee but what do I know.
I’d also like to comment on regards to Brynna and her opinion on Mitt Romney. It’s not the fact that he doesn’t have enough money, because he is practically a millionaire, not to over exaggerate but he does have a lot of money. So him and his money is no reason why he “suspended” himself. I never exactly understood why he did but that’s beside the point. I just wanted to point out that it wasn’t because of money. My guess is he is just going to run in the next election like we talked about in class, because he is still pretty young so he has a few more chances unlike McCain.
One last thing I think most people here think that McCain is doing such a good job is because his overall support by the different ideologies. I also think that is true. How he managed to have such a comeback is beyond me but because of the overall support that he has I believe he is going to be our Republican candidate because I don’t see Mitt Romney coming back anytime soon because I think that would be a waste of money on his part.
~Ryan Brannan
Response to Brynna:
When I was first reading this response there was only one question running through my mind for more than half of it: Is she serious? Although at first I was a little wary when I noticed that the comment was made quite some time ago and that , perhaps I shouldn’t be too hard because I know more information now than she did at the time of writing the response, but then I noticed that Liz and Brynna referred to the suspension of Romney’s campaign and I know the information I had came to me around this time so I knew that she was both serious and probably clinically insane. Obviously Huckabee still hasn’t dropped out, but that hasn’t made him a viable candidate running against McCain, he is just sort of “the other guy.”
As for Ron Paul (this is when my, are you serious question popped up) he is not even close to being a real candidate with real supporters. He gets about 5% in most polls and elections and of those probably 90% are drug users who wish to see drugs legalized by his campaign. When you talk about how “he seems to have a lot of supporters” I wonder what kind of crowd you have been hanging around… Spokane is one of the few cities that has given him more than 5% in the caucuses, but that’s because Spokane has one of the biggest drug problems of any city.
As for your comment about Romney’s suspension, I think you had to have known at this time that he was not coming back. When somebody suspends their campaign it’s like saying, “I’m dropping out, but if the leader has a heart attack or scandal develops and you want me instead I’ll still take the nomination. So there is not much of a chance of him coming back, and no I don’t think he ran out of money, he just realized that it would be worthless to spend more when he wasn’t getting the results he wanted.
Jordon makes some good points but I disagree with the statement she made about it being far too late for McCain to run this country. Sure he is old but I think that with the new endorsement of Romney and depending on who he chooses as a running mate to shore up the rest of the vote he doesn’t have like oh, I don’t know, Huckabee. With all this I think that McCain will be tough to beat. If you think about the two candidates we have a speech giver and a good politician, but are either of them leaders? I think that when it comes down to it people will realize this and then see that McCain has good leadership qualities. Not only this but he could have Huckabee to bring in the evangelical vote and he could even bring in Giuliani as a part of his cabinet for like homeland security. We still have a ways to go in the race even after the nominations are clear and then once people are focusing on just two candidates things that people have not thought about before will come up, and then I think it will be tough for McCain to loose. – Matt Powles
Response to Brynna (and Jordan) in response to me:
First Jordan: I never said that McCain was a flaming liberal. I was merely stating that he did (and still does) appeal to a wider range of voters than just the far right. And that is really a mute point now because he is the Republican candidate, beating out men that I still believe were more conservative than him.
Now Brynna: Huckabee dropped out, and we knew he would because there came a point where he could no longer gain the amount of delegates needed to win the candidacy. And about Mitt Romney suspending his campaign, we may have talked about it in class, but at the time some of us were out of school with the flu. But while at home and watching the news, it was clear at the time that Romney had indeed run out of money, as you even said in your comment. It seemed to me that he had effectively, without explicitly saying at the time, dropped out. I am still standing by what I said about McCain though. Even though he is the Republican nominee, I do not think that he really is the first choice of the Republican party. But he is the one that we are left with.
~Liz
Re: B-soth’s B-side B-me (if the third “b” were a “2”)
1.) Moot point, not mute point, although mute point is logical and that could be just a quiet witticism. If it is, I’m sorry.
2.) My point wasn’t that he doesn’t appeal to a wide spectrum of voters. I know he does; that is the assumption my point was based upon. Besides being so batbleep nutzo, as far to the right as T.K. (Ted Kennedy – when he get’s angry sometimes he becomes T.K.O. – when he gets drunk sometimes he becomes T.K.Go.) is to the left; besides being so nutty conservative the liberal voters love him. And my point is, this, here, coming up, is my point: no one knows or cares what he stands for or where he stands—just that he stands up. Campaigns don’t be’s ‘bout whatzza conservative an’ izzn’t, chylde. (Oh let’s not regress into that now.) And that (my child) is what makes me so crazy- drives me so nutty bananas. People think he’s liberal because they’ve been told that. Liberal voters think it’s O.K. to vote for him because they’ve been told that. But it won’t be until one-hundred and one days in that they’ll realize we’ve just begun BushIII, and by then it will be too late and we’ll all be looking around wondering, “no gun control? No free trade? Clear cut mountains? A FLAG BURNING AMMENDMENT??? What ever happended to liberal. And that, Miss B-Soth, is when the pale horseman comes galloping in.