CE Week #2: “McCain Beats Romney in Florida”
By Chris Cillizza
washingtonpost.com staff writer
Sen. John McCain won a crucial victory over former governor Mitt Romney today in Florida’s Republican primary, a second straight win that cements the Arizona senator as the front-runner for his party’s nomination.
With 80 percent of the vote on the Republican side counted, McCain led Romney, 36 percent to 31 percent. Former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani, who had staked his entire campaign on a strong showing in Florida, trailed with 15 percent. Former governor Mike Huckabee (Ark.) ran fourth with 13 percent.
“Our victory might not have reached landslide proportions, but it’s sweet nonetheless,” McCain told supporters in Miami tonight.
The results were a major disappointment for Giuliani, who had said he needed a strong showing in the state to build momentum for the nearly two dozen states set to vote on Feb. 5.
“You don’t always win but you can try to do it right,” Giuliani said in a speech to supporters in Orlando. He gave no indication about his plans, but a senior Giuliani aide said that it’s “very, very likely” the former mayor will drop out of the race tomorrow and endorse McCain.
On the Democratic side, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) won a largely symbolic primary victory.
The Democratic primary in Florida was effectively neutralized by the Democratic National Committee after the state resisted warnings not to move its presidential primary into January. When Florida Democrats did not comply, the national committee pledged not to seat the state’s delegates at the party’s national convention this summer, and none of the candidates actively campaigned there.
Despite the “beauty contest” nature of the race, Clinton made a stop in Florida this evening to thank her supporters. Clinton described her showing as a “resounding victory.”
The stakes were far higher on the Republican side. McCain picked up all 57 Florida delegates to the national convention in this winner-take-all contest. The victory proved that McCain could win a race in which only Republicans were allowed to vote.
In his two previous victories, in New Hampshire and South Carolina, McCain was buoyed by support from independent and Democratic voters. Those showings echoed his performance in the 2000 presidential race and stoked concerns that the base of the party had not yet accepted him.
In an exit poll, six in 10 Republican voters in Florida described themselves as “conservative.” Among those voters, Romney led with 40 percent of the vote to 27 percent for McCain.
The exit polling showed the economy as the breakaway issue, with nearly half of GOP voters calling it the nation’s top concern. In something of a surprise, McCain led among those voters despite Romney’s heavy focus on his experience as a businessman and investor in creating jobs in the private sector.
McCain, a decorated naval veteran and senior senator, beat Romney convincingly among voters who described the war in Iraq as the most pressing issue facing the country. Romney won by double digits among the group that chose illegal immigration as the central issue in the campaign. Romney criticized McCain’s immigration stand as favoring “amnesty” for illegal immigrants.
Roughly three in 10 of Republicans who voted today are military veterans, nearly four in 10 are seniors and about two in 10 describe themselves as independents, according to the exit polling. About one in eight is Hispanic; up somewhat from 2000.
McCain’s victory consolidated his front-runner status after wins in New Hampshire and South Carolina. Crucial to McCain’s victory was the last-minute endorsement of Florida Republican Gov. Charlie Crist, who stumped with the Arizona senator this morning. Throughout the day, McCain blasted Romney as a flip-flopper on matters of importance to the party base and a liberal masquerading as a conservative.
The two leading Republican candidates bashed one another repeatedly in the days leading up to the Florida vote.
On Monday, Romney hit McCain for allegedly backing liberal policies on energy and immigration policy as well as campaign finance reform. Ideas like that “aren’t conservative, those aren’t Republican, those are not the kind of leadership that we need as we go forward,” Romney said.
McCain, whose personal distaste for Romney is an open secret, was quick to respond. “Mitt Romney’s campaign is based on the wholesale deception of voters,” McCain said, alleging that the only thing on which the Massachusetts governor had been consistent was his inconsistency. During his victory celebration tonight, McCain had kind words for Romney and his other Republican opponents.
As in previous state races, Romney heavily outspent his main rivals on television. The former Massachusetts governor ran 4,475 commercials in Florida, compared to just 470 for McCain, according to figures released by the Nielson Co.
Florida represented a critical test for both men.
For McCain, it was a chance to prove that he can win over rank-and-file Republicans. Unlike New Hampshire and South Carolina, where McCain won primaries this month with heavy backing from independents, only registered Republicans were allowed to vote in Florida’s contest. In claiming victory tonight, McCain happily noted that “As I’ve been repeatedly reminded lately,” this was an all-Republican primary.
For Romney, Florida was an opportunity – lost — to prove that the fight for the Republican nomination is a two-man affair heading into Super Tuesday. To date, Romney has scored wins in two states that were lightly contested –Nevada and Wyoming — and Michigan, where his father served as governor and where he was born.
Many of the campaigns predicted a huge turnout today, and state elections officials said a large number of voters had already cast absentee ballots or early votes.
Some 972,982 early and absentee ballots had been cast by Saturday, according to state officials. Of those, 521,036 were by Republicans and 451,946 were by Democrats.
Although technically there were 210 Democratic delegates up for grabs today, none of those delegates will be awarded to candidates due to sanctions imposed by the Democratic National Committee for the Sunshine State’s decision to move its contest too early in the nominating calendar.
Over the last few days, the campaigns of Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) have feuded over the meaning (or meaninglessness) of the Florida vote. Clinton has voiced support for the seating of Florida’s delegates at the party’s national convention in Denver and rolled out endorsements from Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.) and former U.S. attorney general Janet Reno who ran for the Florida governor’s mansion in 2002.
Obama’s campaign has accused Clinton of seeking to change the rules of the game and insisted that no attention should be paid to the results from Florida tonight.
Washington Post staff writers Juliet Eilperin, Michael D. Shear and Perry Bacon Jr. and Polling Director Jon Cohen contributed to this report.
It looks like Sean Hannity endorsed McCain and bashed the idea of uncompromising conservatism. His listeners were not happy. I listened to the first six responses, one was positive, five sounded like this: “Your monologue gave me two or three ulcers in my stomach.”; “This should have been saves for April fools day.” EVEN A 12 YEAR OLD ASKED HIM IF HE BUMPED HIS HEAD THIS MORNING! Like the article said this proves that McCain can win more then just independents.
A huge surprise is that McCain actually won people who cited the economic issue as the number one concern, supposedly Romney’s strong suit!
The only thing that Romney really has going for him is immigration fears. He handily defeated McCain in that category. This could be big in all the southern states whose citizens really care about immigration.
As in previous state races, Romney heavily outspent his main rivals on television. The former Massachusetts governor ran 4,475 commercials in Florida, compared to just 470 for McCain, according to figures released by the Nielson Co.
Does this show that money isn’t everything…? I actually would say don’t be misled by this…money is really all that matters in a national campaign [we will see on super Tuesday how much money matters.]
Rudy is out. No surprises there. 15% OUCH! I would say his endorsement will help a little but, not a lot. The fact is the 15% of Floridian voters probably only went for him because he actually meant him. His endorsement will probably have about as much weight as he did in the other states that he didn’t campaign in (he lost to ron paul in four of them.)
“On the Democratic side, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) won a largely symbolic primary victory.” I guess now that Edwards is out I am a OBAMA GUY through and through. And I am getting so mad what do they mean “largely symbolic” IT IS SYMBOLIC!