Winter Break WK #2: “Iowans counting down to caucuses”
Candidates running against expectations
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Todd Spangler
Detroit Free Press
December 30, 2007
DES MOINES, Iowa – For America’s next president, it’s game time.
The television campaign ads come one after another. First Joe Biden, then Chris Dodd, then maybe Barack Obama.
Huge signs touting Ron Paul, Mitt Romney and others dot the rural landscape.
Campaign schedules read like train times, and candidates’ buses crisscross the state as if on military maneuvers trying to outflank the enemy.
Mike Huckabee lands in Ottumwa; John Edwards moves east to Clinton (Iowa, not Hillary).
Like it or not, a few hundred thousand voters are going to caucus in Iowa on Thursday.
Between now and then, all nine Republican and eight Democratic candidates have the same challenge: meet or beat expectations, and don’t screw up months or years of volunteer effort, expensive campaigning and plans.
Failure in Iowa can be devastating.
Romney, a Michigan native and former Massachusetts governor, has more to lose than some.
Locked in a tight race with the come-from-behind candidacy of former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, Romney is fighting to regain or keep the lead in Iowa and New Hampshire. His strategy dictates he do well in early states before Michigan votes Jan. 15.
Lose in Iowa to Huckabee, and the threat posed by Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., in New Hampshire looms larger.
Lose both, and, many experts say, forget the White House.
“Then the Republican race is completely wide open,” said Mark Blumenthal, who runs pollster.com, a polling data Web site. “Anything is possible.”
It’s Iowa’s first-in-the-nation caucuses that get it started Thursday, kicking off a campaign calendar that runs at hyper-speed from then through Feb. 5, when 22 states – including California and New York – have primaries or caucuses.
Consider:
For Democratic candidate Edwards, Iowa likely is a make-or-break state. The former North Carolina senator has staked his campaign on winning there – or at least finishing second. He came in second to Sen. John Kerry in Iowa four years ago, and to do worse than that could hobble his run permanently. For now, polls show him a virtual dead heat with Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., and Sen. Obama, D-Ill.
For Obama, winning in Iowa isn’t essential – he’s got plenty of money to hang on, and he never adopted a win-early-at-all-costs strategy. But a win here would go a long way toward making Clinton, who has been considered the presumptive front-runner nationally, appear vulnerable. Meanwhile, expect Democrats who staked even more here – like Delaware Sen. Biden and Connecticut Sen. Dodd – to abandon the race soon if they finish worse than fourth.
On the GOP side, Huckabee only has to win to make good on what has been a growing national reputation. Lose in Iowa, and his chances may be dashed in a flash. As for the other candidates, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani is waiting out the early contests for now – a strategy which could cede headlines and momentum to others – and McCain would consider third or better in Iowa a boost going into New Hampshire and Michigan. McCain “won New Hampshire and Michigan in 2000, and he has to win both to have a realistic chance of being the nominee,” said Larry Sabato, head of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. “Even if he wins both, McCain could still end up in the loser’s circle, just like he did eight years ago. Should Rudy or someone else score well in the primary in Michigan, it could obviously help with their prospects.”
What’s clear for now is that the race remains muddy.
No front-runner is obvious or invulnerable.
“I would not in the least bit want to predict how it will turn out,” said Dennis Goldford, a professor of politics and international relations at Iowa’s Drake University.
As for those friendly faces sitting out there at the rallies at lodges and high schools?
They may be wearing a candidate’s button, but they’re still ready for a last-minute slip.
“Anything may change my way of thinking,” said 69-year-old Nancy Ladehoff, of Marshalltown, Iowa, as she waited for Obama to speak at a high school auditorium.
“We pretty much know” who we’re caucusing for, “but we’re still watching,” she said.
She wouldn’t even say if Obama was her likely choice.
“I think there’s an independent spirit here,” said Ellie Gosselink, a 72-year-old resident of Pella, Iowa, and registered Republican.
Last week, Gosselink decided to support Clinton.
Still, she could change her mind again.
Angel Cartwright, a 38-year-old physical therapist from Ottumwa, left Huckabee’s speech there pretty much convinced that he’s her candidate, saying he “set the record straight” about issues being raised against him, such as Romney’s criticisms that he’s soft on crime.
“I felt he was telling truth,” Cartwright said of Huckabee.
But she didn’t rule out changing her mind, either.
Seeing the candidates is key, said Mariannette Miller-Meeks, an ophthalmologist from Ottumwa and a Republican candidate for Congress next year.
“You get a sense of their energy and their commitment and their passion on the issues,” she said.
So, what could tip the races in the last few days?
A well-placed ad, a last-minute gaffe or campaign disorganization in getting supporters to the caucuses – where neighbors come together in high schools and church basements to pick their candidates.
Maybe even a snowstorm.
“It doesn’t take a big rock to make a big splash in a small pond,” said Goldford, who got his bachelor’s degree in political science from the University of Michigan.
Even the polls are difficult to trust.
Blumenthal, with pollster.com, said it always is difficult to survey people around the holidays when many – particularly younger people – often are traveling.
“It’s an awful time to poll,” he said.
Added to that problem is that some people may lie to pollsters.
Ladehoff says she knows people who got so many poll calls they started rotating the names of who they would support.
So who’s going to win?
“You’re not going to know until they count them,” she said.
Edwards, Romney on rise before caucuses
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Steven Thomma
McClatchy
December 30, 2007
DES MOINES, Iowa – John Edwards has clawed his way into contention to win Iowa’s caucuses on Thursday in the first vote for the Democratic presidential nomination, gaining strength even as rivals Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama have lost ground, according to a new McClatchy-MSNBC poll.
At the same time, Mitt Romney has regained the lead among Iowa Republicans as Mike Huckabee has lost momentum and support, even among the evangelical Christians who had propelled him into the top spot just weeks ago.
Taken together, this first poll in Iowa since campaigning resumed after a Christmas break showed a dead-heat contest between the three leading Democratic candidates and a volatile clash between the top Republican rivals here.
“On the Democratic side, the race is about as close as it can get, but keep an eye on Edwards,” said Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, which conducted the survey. “Edwards has really moved up since our last poll.”
The new survey, taken Dec. 26-28, came three weeks after the initial Dec. 3-6 poll.
Among Democrats:
•Former Sen. Edwards of North Carolina has the support of 24 percent;
•Sen. Clinton of New York has 23 percent;
•Sen. Obama of Illinois has 22 percent;
•Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico has 12 percent;
•Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware has 8 percent;
•Sen. Chris Dodd of Connecticut has 2 percent;
•Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio has 1 percent.
•Undecided: 8 percent.
One in five Iowa Democrats say they could still change their minds. The poll’s margin of error was plus or minus five percentage points.
Among Republicans:
•Former Massachusetts Gov. Romney has 27 percent;
•Former Arkansas Gov. Huckabee has 23 percent;
•Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson has 14 percent;
•Sen. John McCain of Arizona has 13 percent;
•Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani has 5 percent;
•Rep. Ron Paul of Texas has 5 percent;
•Rep. Duncan Hunter of California has 1 percent.
•Undecided: 12 percent.
I am so excited to see the results from the Iowa caucuses being held this Thursday. I have always been pulling for John Edwards and it is good to see that he has made it a three horse race in Iowa. As the article said, a win there is pretty crucial for Edwards who has been campaigning there for a few years now. I also think he has a bit of an advantage in the sense that many Iowans are unsure about who they will support at crunch time, because the recent trend has been in his favor, meaning those unsure Iowans will probably trend towards him if that continues.
This article also makes me think about how strange our government is. About 100,000 Iowans who decide to go to caucus are effectively determining our candidates for the “Leader of the Free World”. It is also slightly humorous how shifty these caucus-goers are; they frequently change their minds and it seems as though they vote for whomever they saw in person last. Iowa’s favorites are decided by how those 100,000 Iowans feel on that particular day. While this is slightly disturbing, it is good to know that the Iowans take their decisions very seriously and are well-informed and educated on the candidates. In the end, I am sure that whatever candidates we have for President will be adequate leaders.