Winter Break WK #2: “Leading in dangerous times”

David S. Broder
Washington Post
December 30, 2007

Once again, the cold, cruel outside world has intruded on the quiet of a holiday season. The assassination of former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto two days after Christmas brought a shocking end to a time of peaceful celebration and shattered any sense of easy optimism for the new year.

Had it been only 24 hours since Mike Huckabee could joke with reporters in Iowa that when he was out hunting pheasant, he thought of the first three birds he brought down as bearing the names of his opponents in the presidential race? That joke died with Bhutto.

 

And suddenly, the real stakes in this protracted election contest seemed much larger, with the recognition that the choice the American people are about to make will have consequences far beyond those precinct caucuses in Iowa and the polling places in New Hampshire.

It is a dangerous world out there, especially for those who embody the hopes of their people and freedom’s friends in the places where extremism and repression are far too familiar.

American foreign policy has been preoccupied with Iraq for almost five years now, and the situation in Pakistan has deteriorated during that time. Pervez Musharraf, the strongman the United States has relied upon to keep order in the country, has become – like Vladimir Putin – as much of a problem as a prop.

In such places as Pakistan, the next president of the United States is likely to confront the most difficult challenges of the time, and the lives of many Americans will rest on those judgments.

There are many such places in this world. From Darfur to North Korea and from the Gaza Strip to the Kremlin, the will and the wisdom of the United States and its leadership are being tested every day. Osama bin Laden has escaped every trap the United States has set for him, and terrorists remain a menace to all Western nations.

In the Pakistan crisis, no one can be certain what experience or what temperament best equips a president to deal with the uncertainties of a Muslim society with a fragile democracy living under a form of martial law and now riven by controversy over the murder of a returned claimant to power – a person with her own controversial history.

But I have found myself thinking about something I was told many years ago by Bill Bradley, the former senator from New Jersey, before he ran for the Democratic presidential nomination against Al Gore in 2000. Bradley was explaining one day in his office why he had taken himself out of consideration as a running mate for Michael Dukakis in 1988. You shouldn’t run for vice president, he said, unless you thought you were ready to be president, and he didn’t consider himself ready.

Why not? He said he thought a president of the United States needed to know several other major countries “from the inside,” not just at a briefing-book level but from first-hand observation, so you understand the pressures on their leaders when you sit down to negotiate with them. Bradley had begun such studies in the Soviet Union, Japan, Germany and Mexico, he said, but had more to do in all four places, and China beckoned.

Then, he said, a president should know the leadership elites in this country – not just in politics, but in business, the professions, academia, labor – well enough that he would know where to go to staff his administration. And, he said, you needed to know the policy community well enough to be able to navigate for useful advice.

I thought then – and I still believe – that was as insightful a description of the desirable background for a president as I had ever heard. Bradley turned out to have his shortcomings as a campaigner, but his prescription for a president still seems right.

When all the fun and games are finished, Americans will be choosing a president for a dangerous time in a world that has more shocks to administer. I hope some of the folks in Iowa and New Hampshire are thinking about that.

Published in: on December 30, 2007 at 12:11 pm Comments (4)

Winter Break WK #2: “Bhutto’s death could change voters’ thinking on Clinton”

DeWayne Wickham
Gannett News Service
December 30, 2007

B y the time the plane carrying U.S. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton broke through an early morning fog to land in Lawton, Iowa, on Thursday, she’d already learned of the event half a world away that could have a big impact on her campaign to win the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination.

“I am just profoundly saddened and outraged by the assassination” of former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, Clinton, D-N.Y., told me moments after her plane touched down. “I viewed her as a leader of tremendous political and personal courage.”

 

The death of Bhutto, killed while campaigning to become her country’s president, Clinton said, “is a terrible reminder of the work that remains to be done to try to bring peace and stability to regions of the globe, like Pakistan, that are too often beset by fear, hatred and violence.”

What she didn’t say is that Bhutto’s killing reinforces a point she has been trying to drive home to Democratic voters in Iowa in these final days before the Jan. 3 Iowa Caucus: In a world full of danger, the United States needs a president who can hit the ground running — not one who’ll have a big learning curve.

That’s the message Clinton has tried mightily to get across in what her campaign is calling her “time to pick a president” swing around the state. And it’s an argument she reinforced in her telephone interview with me.

“The next president will find waiting on the desk in the Oval Office two wars; one to end, one to try to salvage,” she said, referring the war in Iraq that Democrats want to end and the war on terror that they think should be pursued more aggressively.

“Violence and instability from Africa to Pakistan, a much-emboldened position by Russia and China vis-a-vis the United States, a deteriorating situation in the Gulf region and the Middle East, a turning away from democracy in Latin America,” are all problems the next president will have to confront, Clinton said.

Until now, her efforts to market herself as the most experienced contender for the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination have been mired in a debate over what voters are looking for in the next chief executive. Recent polls have shown them divided between a candidate who represents change and a candidate with significant experience.

Bhutto’s death may change that. Her assassination threatens to plunge Pakistan into a spiral of violence — and possibly civil war — that could have grave consequences for this country. Pakistan is a wobbly Third World nation with a nuclear arsenal. It’s also believed to be the hiding place of Osama bin Laden and a breeding ground for Islamic terrorists.

In the wake of Bhutto’s assassination, Pakistan looms as a far more dangerous place — a nation that could unleash a wave of violence reaching the streets of this country.

While Clinton didn’t draw a direct link between her argument that voters should embrace her experience and the shock waves Bhutto’s death has produced, she made a subtle connection between the two.

“Voters, starting in Iowa, are going to be picking a president, and this is a time for deliberative analysis about who would be the best president, from day one,” she told me. “And I am doing everything I can to make that case based on my 35 years of work” in various positions of government.

Before Bhutto’s death, that kind of talk sounded like just another debating point in the verbal sparring among Democratic presidential rivals.

Whether voters give it any more weight in the aftermath of Bhutto’s murder and Pakistan’s threatened implosion we’ll find out soon enough.

Published in: on at 12:10 pm Comments (2)

Winter Break WK #2: “Iowans counting down to caucuses”

Candidates running against expectations

Related stories

Elections – Presidential

Todd Spangler
Detroit Free Press
December 30, 2007

DES MOINES, Iowa – For America’s next president, it’s game time.

The television campaign ads come one after another. First Joe Biden, then Chris Dodd, then maybe Barack Obama.

Huge signs touting Ron Paul, Mitt Romney and others dot the rural landscape.

Campaign schedules read like train times, and candidates’ buses crisscross the state as if on military maneuvers trying to outflank the enemy.

Mike Huckabee lands in Ottumwa; John Edwards moves east to Clinton (Iowa, not Hillary).

Like it or not, a few hundred thousand voters are going to caucus in Iowa on Thursday.

Between now and then, all nine Republican and eight Democratic candidates have the same challenge: meet or beat expectations, and don’t screw up months or years of volunteer effort, expensive campaigning and plans.

Failure in Iowa can be devastating.

Romney, a Michigan native and former Massachusetts governor, has more to lose than some.

Locked in a tight race with the come-from-behind candidacy of former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, Romney is fighting to regain or keep the lead in Iowa and New Hampshire. His strategy dictates he do well in early states before Michigan votes Jan. 15.

 

Lose in Iowa to Huckabee, and the threat posed by Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., in New Hampshire looms larger.

Lose both, and, many experts say, forget the White House.

“Then the Republican race is completely wide open,” said Mark Blumenthal, who runs pollster.com, a polling data Web site. “Anything is possible.”

It’s Iowa’s first-in-the-nation caucuses that get it started Thursday, kicking off a campaign calendar that runs at hyper-speed from then through Feb. 5, when 22 states – including California and New York – have primaries or caucuses.

Consider:

For Democratic candidate Edwards, Iowa likely is a make-or-break state. The former North Carolina senator has staked his campaign on winning there – or at least finishing second. He came in second to Sen. John Kerry in Iowa four years ago, and to do worse than that could hobble his run permanently. For now, polls show him a virtual dead heat with Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., and Sen. Obama, D-Ill.

For Obama, winning in Iowa isn’t essential – he’s got plenty of money to hang on, and he never adopted a win-early-at-all-costs strategy. But a win here would go a long way toward making Clinton, who has been considered the presumptive front-runner nationally, appear vulnerable. Meanwhile, expect Democrats who staked even more here – like Delaware Sen. Biden and Connecticut Sen. Dodd – to abandon the race soon if they finish worse than fourth.

On the GOP side, Huckabee only has to win to make good on what has been a growing national reputation. Lose in Iowa, and his chances may be dashed in a flash. As for the other candidates, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani is waiting out the early contests for now – a strategy which could cede headlines and momentum to others – and McCain would consider third or better in Iowa a boost going into New Hampshire and Michigan. McCain “won New Hampshire and Michigan in 2000, and he has to win both to have a realistic chance of being the nominee,” said Larry Sabato, head of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. “Even if he wins both, McCain could still end up in the loser’s circle, just like he did eight years ago. Should Rudy or someone else score well in the primary in Michigan, it could obviously help with their prospects.”

What’s clear for now is that the race remains muddy.

No front-runner is obvious or invulnerable.

“I would not in the least bit want to predict how it will turn out,” said Dennis Goldford, a professor of politics and international relations at Iowa’s Drake University.

As for those friendly faces sitting out there at the rallies at lodges and high schools?

They may be wearing a candidate’s button, but they’re still ready for a last-minute slip.

“Anything may change my way of thinking,” said 69-year-old Nancy Ladehoff, of Marshalltown, Iowa, as she waited for Obama to speak at a high school auditorium.

“We pretty much know” who we’re caucusing for, “but we’re still watching,” she said.

She wouldn’t even say if Obama was her likely choice.

“I think there’s an independent spirit here,” said Ellie Gosselink, a 72-year-old resident of Pella, Iowa, and registered Republican.

Last week, Gosselink decided to support Clinton.

Still, she could change her mind again.

Angel Cartwright, a 38-year-old physical therapist from Ottumwa, left Huckabee’s speech there pretty much convinced that he’s her candidate, saying he “set the record straight” about issues being raised against him, such as Romney’s criticisms that he’s soft on crime.

“I felt he was telling truth,” Cartwright said of Huckabee.

But she didn’t rule out changing her mind, either.

Seeing the candidates is key, said Mariannette Miller-Meeks, an ophthalmologist from Ottumwa and a Republican candidate for Congress next year.

“You get a sense of their energy and their commitment and their passion on the issues,” she said.

So, what could tip the races in the last few days?

A well-placed ad, a last-minute gaffe or campaign disorganization in getting supporters to the caucuses – where neighbors come together in high schools and church basements to pick their candidates.

Maybe even a snowstorm.

“It doesn’t take a big rock to make a big splash in a small pond,” said Goldford, who got his bachelor’s degree in political science from the University of Michigan.

Even the polls are difficult to trust.

Blumenthal, with pollster.com, said it always is difficult to survey people around the holidays when many – particularly younger people – often are traveling.

“It’s an awful time to poll,” he said.

Added to that problem is that some people may lie to pollsters.

Ladehoff says she knows people who got so many poll calls they started rotating the names of who they would support.

So who’s going to win?

“You’re not going to know until they count them,” she said.

Edwards, Romney on rise before caucuses

Related stories

Elections – Presidential

Steven Thomma
McClatchy
December 30, 2007

DES MOINES, Iowa – John Edwards has clawed his way into contention to win Iowa’s caucuses on Thursday in the first vote for the Democratic presidential nomination, gaining strength even as rivals Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama have lost ground, according to a new McClatchy-MSNBC poll.

At the same time, Mitt Romney has regained the lead among Iowa Republicans as Mike Huckabee has lost momentum and support, even among the evangelical Christians who had propelled him into the top spot just weeks ago.

Taken together, this first poll in Iowa since campaigning resumed after a Christmas break showed a dead-heat contest between the three leading Democratic candidates and a volatile clash between the top Republican rivals here.

“On the Democratic side, the race is about as close as it can get, but keep an eye on Edwards,” said Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, which conducted the survey. “Edwards has really moved up since our last poll.”

The new survey, taken Dec. 26-28, came three weeks after the initial Dec. 3-6 poll.

 

Among Democrats:

•Former Sen. Edwards of North Carolina has the support of 24 percent;

•Sen. Clinton of New York has 23 percent;

•Sen. Obama of Illinois has 22 percent;

•Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico has 12 percent;

•Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware has 8 percent;

•Sen. Chris Dodd of Connecticut has 2 percent;

•Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio has 1 percent.

•Undecided: 8 percent.

One in five Iowa Democrats say they could still change their minds. The poll’s margin of error was plus or minus five percentage points.

Among Republicans:

•Former Massachusetts Gov. Romney has 27 percent;

•Former Arkansas Gov. Huckabee has 23 percent;

•Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson has 14 percent;

•Sen. John McCain of Arizona has 13 percent;

•Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani has 5 percent;

•Rep. Ron Paul of Texas has 5 percent;

•Rep. Duncan Hunter of California has 1 percent.

•Undecided: 12 percent.

Winter Break WK #2: “The Closing of the American Mind”

 

Partisan warriors may love our polarized political culture. Everyone else is turned off, and tuning out.

By Evan Thomas

NEWSWEEK

Updated: 1:11 PM ET Dec 22, 2007

There are, as they say, two Americas. There is the America of the rich and the America of the poor, as Democratic presidential candidate John Edwards likes to point out. There is the America of Red States and Blue States, populated, as columnist Dave Barry likes to joke, by “ignorant racist fascist knuckle-dragging NASCAR-obsessed cousin-marrying road-kill-eating tobacco-juice-dribbling gun-fondling religious fanatic rednecks” and “godless unpatriotic pierced-nose Volvo-driving France-loving leftwing Communist latte-sucking tofu-chomping holistic-wacko neurotic vegan weenie perverts.”

These divisions seem to grow, and to grow more antagonistic, by the year. But the real divide, the separation that may matter more to the future of American democracy, is between the political junkies and everyone else. The junkies watch endless cable-TV news shows and listen to angry talk radio and feel passionate about their political views. They number roughly 20 percent of the population, according to Princeton professor Markus Prior, who tracks political preferences and the media. Then there’s all the rest: the people who prefer ESPN or old movies or videogames or Facebook or almost anything on the air or online to politics. Once upon a time, these people tended to be political moderates; now they are turned off or tuned out. Aside from an uptick in the 2004 presidential election, voter turnout has drifted downward since its modern peak in 1960 (from 63 percent to the low 50s), despite much easier rules on voter registration and expensive efforts to get out voters, writes Thomas Patterson, a professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government and the author of “The Vanishing Voter.” For all the press hoopla over the coming presidential primaries, turnout rates are likely to dip way below 30 percent, he predicts.

It’s axiomatic that democracies need an informed and engaged citizenry. But America’s is indifferent or angry. Washington has entered an age of what Ken Mehlman, President Bush’s campaign manager in 2004, calls “hyperpartisanship.” Partisanship is nothing new, or necessarily bad—after all, it can offer voters clear choices. But it has become poisonous. In “How Divided Are We?,” a 2006 essay in the journal Commentary, conservative thinker James Q. Wilson writes about candidates who regard their competitors “not simply as wrong but as corrupt and wicked.” There is in modern political polarization a strong whiff of the old paranoid style of American politics: the left imagines big corporations plotting with neocons to protect Big Oil, while the right imagines a conspiracy of big media, Hollywood and academe to subvert traditional values.

What happened to the “vital center,” the necessary glue to getting anything done in a system that is premised on checks and balances? It’s hard to imagine the leaders of the two parties sitting down at the end of the day to share a drink and a joke, as President Reagan was able to do with Democratic House Speaker Thomas P. (Tip) O’Neill in the 1980s or President Johnson was able to do with Republican Senate Minority Leader Everett Dirksen in the 1960s. Recently, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has referred to President Bush as a “liar” and a “loser.” The popular debate is no more civilized: just read the comments posted by ordinary citizens on the Web sites of the mainstream media (much less partisan blogs). They often run along the lines of “Hillary is the Devil” and “Bush is a baby killer.”

The causes of this divide—between the angry and the indifferent, the news junkies and the politically disaffected—are varied, deep-seated and, unfortunately, hard to cure. The evolution of the two parties has hardened ideological divisions and driven away moderates.

The historically minded tend to dismiss, or at least downplay, such observations about the present, arguing that it has been ever thus. Jefferson and Adams fought over religion; Aaron Burr killed Alexander Hamilton; on the floor of Congress members occasionally struck each other with fists and canes. All true, but just because the past had its dismal chapters does not mean the division of the moment is any less important, and it is the case that we are in a particularly bleak phase of partisanship.

And the middle of the 20th century was a bit better on the question of cooperation. Back then the political parties tried to be big tents. The Democrats numbered conservative Southerners as well as liberal Northerners. The Republicans had some big-city liberals as well as rural conservatives. But then, starting in the 1960s, when Presidents Kennedy and Johnson bravely embraced civil rights, Southern conservatives deserted the Democrats. By the ’80s, Democratic strength was centered in the big cities and along the coasts, and liberal interest groups had taken over the party. Neither party tried as hard to reach out to the ideologically diverse.

Partly in response to the impression of liberal bias in the mainstream media, the Republican right has made a highly successful industry out of talk radio and Fox News Channel, the network created by Roger Ailes, a former Nixon-Reagan political operative who cut his teeth peeling conservative ethnics away from the Democratic Party in the 1970s and ’80s.

It is a mistake, however, to think that Fox News turns viewers into partisan conservatives. “They came that way,” says Prior, the Princeton political scientist whose book, “Post-Broadcast Democracy,” offers the clearest and most insightful explanation of why American politics has become more polarized. Fox was responding to a shift in the political landscape brought on largely by technological changes that drove media habits, says Prior. In his book, Prior shows that developments in broadcasting lie at the heart of some disheartening trends in American political life.

The old order—a larger, more politically moderate voting public—was a matter of choice, writes Prior, or rather a lack thereof. In 1970, at about 6:30 p.m. at least two or three nights a week, about half the country could be found watching the evening news on one of the three major networks. The broadcasts tended to be fairly sober-minded, on-the-one-hand, on-the-other-hand presentations by trusted anchormen like Walter Cronkite. The network news shows had to be evenhanded because they appealed to such large and politically diverse audiences, and because the networks had to mind a “Fairness Doctrine,” imposed by Congress in return for granting precious broadcast licenses on the narrow bandwidth of VHF TV. The huge audiences watched them because, with only four or five channels to watch on most TVs, there wasn’t much else on.

But then, in the 1980s and ’90s, came cable TV and the Internet. Before long, viewers had scores of channels to choose from, or they could abandon TV altogether and entertain themselves online. Prior estimates that about half the viewers of the evening news wandered away to watch entertainment—sports, movies, reality TV, whatever. Today, the evening news shows draw about 10 percent of the viewing audience. For the political junkies, the offerings are much more bounteous than in 1970: not only 24-hour news channels but an infinitely expanding blogosphere. Some commentators and political figures—notably Al Gore, in his latest book, “The Assault on Reason”—see the Internet as democracy’s last, best hope, a way of opening the world to free-flowing ideas. But others note that the Web tends to be long on opinion (which is cheap to produce) and short on actual reporting (which is expensive and strains the capacities of old-line news organizations shorn of viewers, listeners and readers).

Political junkies can find anything on the Internet, but what they look for tends to reinforce their prejudices. It is now possible to design a 24/7 “Daily Me” on the Web to replace that bulky, soggy but multifaceted newspaper that once landed in the driveway each morning. “We are creating enclaves of like-minded people,” writes University of Chicago law professor Cass Sunstein, author of “Republic.com 2.0,” an article in The Chronicle of Higher Education. Historically, notes Sunstein, narrow-interest groups have fueled social progress, like the civil-rights movement—but also cults and Nazism. “There is a general risk that those who flock together, on the Internet or elsewhere, will end up both confident and wrong,” writes Sunstein.

Congress is a mirror of this narrow-casting. It seems improbable that Congress could make the sort of compromises necessary to pass meaningful legislation to reduce dependence on foreign energy sources, say, or to significantly lower greenhouse-gas emissions.

There is a faint clamor for leaders who will transcend “business as usual” and unite, rather than divide, the country. With about three out of four Americans saying the nation is headed in the wrong direction, and both Congress and the president drawing historically low approval ratings, this might be a good time to find common ground to look for far-reaching solutions. The presidential candidates by and large at least give lip service to “coming together,” though at the same time their cynical operatives are usually maneuvering to drive voters further apart with “wedge issues” and negative advertising. Americans could, of course, reject this hypocrisy and demand the sort of leadership that reaches across the political aisle to accomplish hard tasks. But first they will have to switch off the Xbox or click away from the Home Shopping Network or “Girls Gone Wild” and go out and vote.

URL: http://www.newsweek.com/id/81599

Winter Break WK #2: “The Rise of a Fierce Yet Fragile Superpower”

 

The much-heralded advent of China as a global power is no longer a forecast but a reality. Now we, and they, must manage its triumph.

By Fareed Zakaria

NEWSWEEK

Updated: 1:12 PM ET Dec 22, 2007

For Americans, 2008 is an important election year. But for much of the world, it is likely to be seen as the year that China moved to center stage, with the Olympics serving as the country’s long-awaited coming-out party. The much-heralded advent of China as a global power is no longer a forecast but a reality. On issue after issue, China has become the second most important country on the planet. Consider what’s happened already this past year. In 2007 China contributed more to global growth than the United States, the first time another country had done so since at least the 1930s. It also became the world’s largest consumer, eclipsing the United States in four of the five basic food, energy and industrial commodities. And a few months ago China surpassed the United States to become the world’s leading emitter of CO2. Whether it’s trade, global warming, Darfur or North Korea, China has become the new x factor, without which no durable solution is possible.

And yet the Chinese do not quite see themselves this way. Susan Shirk, the author of a recent book about the country, “The Fragile Superpower,” tells a revealing tale. Whenever she mentions her title in America, people say to her, “Fragile? China doesn’t seem fragile.” But in China people say, “Superpower? China isn’t a superpower.”

In fact it’s both, and China’s fragility is directly related to its extraordinary rise. Lawrence Summers has recently pointed out that during the Industrial Revolution the average European’s living standards rose about 50 percent over the course of his lifetime (then about 40 years). In Asia, principally China, he calculates, the average person’s living standards are set to rise by 10,000 percent in one lifetime! The scale and pace of growth in China has been staggering, utterly unprecedented in history—and it has produced equally staggering change. In two decades China has experienced the same degree of industrialization, urbanization and social transformation as Europe did in two centuries.

Recall what China looked like only 30 years ago. It was a devastated country, one of the world’s poorest, with a totalitarian state. It was just emerging from Mao Zedong’s Cultural Revolution, which had destroyed universities, schools and factories, all to revitalize the revolution. Since then 400 million people have been lifted out of poverty in China—about 75 percent of the world’s total poverty reduction over the last century. The country has built new cities and towns, roads and ports, and is planning for the future in impressive detail.

So far Beijing has managed to balance economic growth and social stability in a highly fluid environment. Given their challenges, China’s political leaders stand out for their governing skills. The regime remains a dictatorship, with a monopoly on power. But it has expanded personal liberty in ways that would be recognizable to John Locke or Thomas Jefferson. People in China can now work, travel, own property and increasingly worship as they please. This is not enough, but it is not insignificant, either.

But whether this forward movement—economic and political—will continue has become the crucial question for China. It is a question that is being asked not just in the West but in China, and for practical reasons. The regime’s main problem is not that it’s incurably evil but that it is losing control over its own country. Growth has empowered localities and regions to the point that decentralization is now the defining reality of Chinese life. Central tax collection is lower than in most countries, a key indicator of Beijing’s weakness. On almost every issue—slowing down lending, curbing greenhouse-gas emissions—the central government issues edicts that are ignored by the provinces. As China moves up the value chain, so the gap between rich and poor grows dramatically. Large sectors of the economy and society are simply outside the grip of the Communist Party, which has become an elite technocracy, sitting above the 1.3 billion people it leads.

Political reform is part of the solution to this problem. China needs a more open, accountable and responsive form of government, one that can exercise control in what has become a more chaotic and empowered society. What such reform would look like remains an open question, but one that is being debated within the seniormost levels of the regime. In the current issue of Foreign Affairs, John Thornton, an investment banker turned China expert, traces how Beijing is taking hesitant but clear steps toward greater rule of law and accountability.

China’s sense of its own weakness casts a shadow over its foreign policy. It is unique as a world power, the first in modern history to be at once rich (in aggregate terms) and poor (in per capita terms). It still sees itself as a developing country, with hundreds of millions of peasants to worry about. It views many of the issues on which it is pressed—global warming, human rights—as rich-country problems. (When it comes to pushing regimes to open up, Beijing also worries about the implications for its own undemocratic structure.) But this is changing. From North Korea to Darfur to Iran, China has been slowly showing that it wants to be a responsible “stakeholder” in the international system.

Some scholars and policy intellectuals (and a few generals in the Pentagon) look at the rise of China and see the seeds of inevitable great-power conflict and perhaps even war. Look at history, they say. When a new power rises it inevitably disturbs the balance of power, unsettles the international order and seeks a place in the sun. This makes it bump up against the established great power of the day (that would be us). So, Sino-U.S. conflict is inevitable.

But some great powers have been like Nazi Germany and others like modern-day Germany and Japan. The United States moved up the global totem pole and replaced Britain as the No. 1 country without a war between the two nations. Conflict and competition—particularly in the economic realm—between China and the United States is inevitable. But whether this turns ugly depends largely on policy choices that will be made in Washington and Beijing over the next decade.

In another Foreign Affairs essay, Princeton’s John Ikenberry makes the crucially important point that the current world order is extremely conducive to China’s peaceful rise. That order, he argues, is integrated, rule-based, with wide and deep foundations—and there are massive economic benefits for China to work within this system. Meanwhile, nuclear weapons make it suicidal to risk a great-power war. “Today’s Western order, in short, is hard to overturn and easy to join,” writes Ikenberry.

The Chinese show many signs of understanding these conditions. Their chief strategist, Zheng Bijian, coined the term “peaceful rise” to describe just such an effort on Beijing’s part to enter into the existing order rather than overturn it. The Chinese government has tried to educate its public on these issues, releasing a 12-part documentary last year, “The Rise of Great Nations,” whose central lesson is that markets and not empire determine the long-run success of a great global power.

But while the conditions exist for peace and cooperation, there are also many factors pointing in the other direction. As China grows in strength, it grows in pride and nationalist feeling—which will be on full display at the Summer Olympic Games. Beijing’s mandarin class is convinced that the United States wishes it ill. Washington, meanwhile—sitting atop a unipolar order—is unused to the idea of sharing power or accommodating another great power’s interests. Flashpoints like human rights, Taiwan or some unforeseen incident could spiral badly in an atmosphere of mistrust and with domestic constituencies—on both sides—eager to sound tough. Two thousand eight is the year of China. It should also be the year we craft a serious long-term China policy.

URL: http://www.newsweek.com/id/81588

Published in: on at 12:33 pm Comments (6)

Winter Break WK #2: “Obama is not ready, neither are his foes”

Chuck Raasch
Gannett News Service
December 29, 2007

D ES MOINES – When it comes right down to it is anyone experienced enough to be president?

Over the past 30 years alone, the job has been widely perceived and described. It was supposed to be too much for one man during Jimmy Carter’s presidency. It was revived under a skilled political actor, Ronald Reagan, who brought innate American characteristics like optimism back to the Oval Office. The presidency was questioned as irrelevant during the early years of Bill Clinton. And now, there are those who think the job again is too much to bear (George W. Bush, post 9/11). All these men openly and often painfully aged in office. Political and media battering aside, just listening to the daily threat assessment from the intelligence services alone would age a person.

 

Can any human be fully prepared for the presidency’s darkest secrets or its most open expectations? Maybe that’s why God has been invoked so frequently in this marathon campaign that is suddenly turning into a sprint to Thursday’s Iowa caucuses.

By implication, the candidates are saying the challenges are beyond mortal beings.

Now, Hillary Clinton, John McCain, Bill Richardson, Rudy Giuliani, Joe Biden, Chris Dodd and others argue that their life and political experience make them uniquely qualified for the job. But that’s an unknown until they get there. It’s why Americans look to different things than length of a resume, especially at a time when respect for politicians and for the institutions of politics is so low.

This is what makes Hillary Clinton’s and her surrogates’ attacks on Illinois Sen. Barack Obama’s relative lack of experience — he was an Illinois state senator just three years ago — so risky. Especially when her husband, former President Bill Clinton, is the messenger.

Bill Clinton faced the same “he’s not ready” arguments when he first ran for president in 1992. The Clintons sagely turned the dissention around as the desperate acts of an establishment hell bent on holding onto power, and portrayed themselves as fresh voices of change.

The assassination Thursday of former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto could bolster Hillary Clinton’s claims that the times require an experienced president, and underscores the challenges facing whomever is elected president.

But if Obama can coherently make the Clintons’ case in ‘92 over the next five weeks, he could be his party’s 2008 presidential nominee.

About this time 16 years ago, then Sen. Bob Kerrey of Nebraska was warning fellow Democrats that Bill Clinton was unelectable, that the Arkansas governor’s lack of Vietnam service would invite Republicans to open Clinton up like a “soft peanut.” Now Kerrey has endorsed Hillary Clinton, in part because of her experience. But Kerry also undermined the Clintons’ case against Obama by declaring the Illinois senator “exceptionally qualified by experience and judgment to be President of the United States.”

Back in 1992, the Democrats were attracted by Bill Clinton’s potential, and the Republicans never knew what to make of him. They portrayed him as a mediocre governor of a small state. Pat Buchanan, whose “peasants with pitchforks” primary challenge was itself a challenge to the indifferent leadership of the first President Bush, declared that the sum total of Bill Clinton’s foreign policy experience came at the International House of Pancakes.

Along came Ross Perot, a giant of business who was going to fix the economy, but who came across like a crazy uncle once he stepped onto the political stage. Clinton looked smart, stable, and ready to go. And Clinton the unprepared became president for eight years.

Is Obama any less prepared than Bill Clinton was in 1992? In recent interviews, Clinton has argued that the answer is yes, that he was the “senior governor” in the United States with considerable chief executive experience. But elected at 46, Bill Clinton was one year younger than Obama will be at the Democratic National Convention in Denver in August. And in ‘92, Bill Clinton had been a government man, with no real experience in private business. Yet he ran a successful “it’s the economy, stupid,” campaign to confront a recession.

Even some of Clinton’s Cabinet members, including his Labor Secretary Robert Reich, have recently argued that Bill Clinton had virtually no experience beyond a small, rural state when he was elected in ‘92.

What is experience in the ‘08 context? Is it your age multiplied by five-point plans and action memos and the ability to out-negative your political opponents? Or is it the ability to articulate a believable vision, connectivity, optimism, and demonstrable judgment when it comes to things like going to war – as Obama often reminds voters?

Jerry Kellman, who in 1985 gave Obama his first post-college job as a community organizer in Chicago’s tough South Side, was asked whether the 46-year-old Obama was ready to be president.

No one is ever “ready” for the job, Kellman replied. But, he said, a younger Obama showed him something in a $10,000-a-year social services job that most people washed out of in three months.

‘”I think that Barack is much more reflective than the average person that runs for president,” Kellman said. “He has a more developed internal life, which makes him question some things that people take for granted.”

He said Obama arrived at his doorstep as an ideological and hopeful young man, but that he soon learned that “people were not always motivated by the best of motivations, and that they are not going to necessarily appreciate doing the right thing for its own sake.

“And that you have to deal with the realties of power and money if you expect to accomplish anything for yourself or other people,” Kellman added.

He said that Obama “is a quick learner, but he is being asked to learn at a very rapid pace. … Whether he learns fast enough to be elected president — we’ll find out.”

Winter Break WK #2: “A solid education goes beyond curriculum”

Robert Archer
Special to the Spokesman-Review
December 29, 2007

T oday, I had four students show up to class with neither pencil nor pen. Another nine had no paper.

Yesterday, I took up student journals to grade. This was no surprise, since it had been written on the board. Six students did not even have their journals with them, even though these are daily required materials in my class.

Last week, I handed out a packet on fragments and run-ons, a packet that was their homework to turn in the next day. At the end of class, I found three of them left behind on the floor of my classroom.

 

So, just for a quick summary: 15 weeks into the school year, I had 13 students who had either nothing with which to write or nothing on which to write it, six who didn’t have a homework assignment that was a graded daily requirement and three who couldn’t possibly complete the graded assignment for the next day. And all of these numbers come from a single class of 25 ninth-graders!

The numbers are remarkably similar in my other classes.

Yet my department head, my principal, my district, my state, my entire society is mandating that I teach all students assigned to me what parallel structure is, what a comma splice is, what the theme is in “To Kill a Mockingbird,” what the difference is between a simile and a metaphor, what a good thesis sentence looks like, what the typical five-paragraph essay should be, what context clues can be used to decipher unfamiliar vocabulary words. And much more of the same.

Don’t get me wrong. As an English major, I fervently relish these concepts; as an English teacher, I fully appreciate the social value of attaining such skills; and as a professional, I am altogether committed to doing my best to impart such knowledge to every child who passes through my door daily.

The state and the district refer to such skills as GLEs, for grade-level expectations, and they are subject-specific to each secondary core curriculum needed for graduation from a Washington public high school; they are non-negotiable.

However, I’m wondering – just wondering, mind you – if I really am, at the heart of it all, teaching these children what I truly should be teaching them.

Curriculum, curriculum, curriculum – it’s on what the GLEs focus; it’s what the Washington Assessment of Student Learning (WASL) tests; it’s what the PSAT and SAT test; it’s on what the federal No Child Left Behind Act was built.

Thus, it certainly seems that our entire society values curriculum above all. Yet nowhere built into that mandated curriculum is the purposeful instruction in ethical principles. Nowhere. You can even check the Washington Office of the Superintendent of Public Instruction Web site ( www.k12.wa.us) if you’d like to double-check my facts.

A solid work ethic? Timeliness? Preparedness? Organizational skills? Responsibility? Socially acceptable behavior? Integrity? Respect? Honor? Diligence? Nowhere to be found in any official curriculum guide; thus, not to be emphasized in the public school classroom.

But a comma splice must be both taught and tested. The same goes for the ability to comprehend a piece of text written by John Steinbeck or Harper Lee or Frederick Douglass. And the same for the definitions of the words “superfluous” and “pernicious.”

I am by no means suggesting that we begin to ignore the aforementioned curricular abilities; to me, they are still absolutely necessary in order for an individual to become a learned and productive member of the greater society. Rather, I desire that some perennial values be deliberately instilled in our children via an ethically comprehensive curriculum in our public schools.

Some may ask me why I don’t have pens, pencils and paper in my high school classroom for thoroughly unprepared students; or why I don’t allow for several days, or weeks even, for thoroughly neglectful students to turn in late work to me; or why I don’t run out and find thoroughly disorganized students in their next classes to get work to them they have left behind in my classroom.

The answer is pretty simple – I refuse to teach just curriculum. There are far more crucial issues that have been ignored in the education of our children for far too long. I want to remedy that deplorable fact. I want our state, our nation, our society to want the same.

Published in: on at 8:46 am Comments (10)

Winter Break WK #2: “Clinton, Obama Seize on Killing”

[Questions: Would this event qualify as a "Late December/Early January Surprise"? If so, who benefits most?]

By Anne E. Kornblut and Shailagh Murray
Washington Post Staff Writers
Friday, December 28, 2007; A01

DES MOINES, Dec. 27 — News of Benazir Bhutto’s assassination came just hours before Sen. Barack Obama delivered what his campaign had billed as the “closing argument” in his bid for the Democratic presidential nomination Thursday, forcing his campaign to scramble to incorporate the Pakistani opposition leader into his message of change.

For his chief rival, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.), Bhutto’s death helped underscore the line she has been driving home for months — about who is best suited to lead the nation at a time of international peril. In her comments Thursday, Clinton described Bhutto in terms Obama (D-Ill.) could not: as a fellow mother, a pioneering woman following in a man’s footsteps, and a longtime peer on the world stage.

The differing reactions of Clinton and Obama to the assassination crystallized the debate between the two just a week before Iowans will decide the first contest in the battle for the Democratic presidential nomination.

While aides said Clinton was anxious not to appear to be politicizing Bhutto’s death, they nonetheless saw it as a potential turning point in the race with Obama and former senator John Edwards (D-N.C.).

“I have known Benazir Bhutto for more than 12 years; she’s someone whom I was honored to visit as first lady when she was prime minister,” Clinton said at a campaign event in a firehouse in western Iowa. “Certainly on a personal level, for those of us who knew her, who were impressed by her commitment, her dedication, her willingness to pick up the mantle of her father, who was also assassinated, it is a terrible, terrible tragedy,” she said.

Three hours after news of Bhutto’s slaying broke, Obama delivered a withering rebuke of Clinton’s experience, depicting her lengthy political resume (Reminder: By the way, yours is due January 7th for 40 points.) as a hindrance to solving big problems, including crises abroad. In an especially charged moment, senior Obama adviser David Axelrod would later tie the killing to the Iraq war — and Clinton’s vote to approve it, which he argued diverted U.S resources from fighting terrorism in Afghanistan and Pakistan, both al-Qaeda hotbeds.

“You can’t at once argue that you’re the master of a broken system in Washington and offer yourself as the person to change it,” Obama said. “You can’t fall in line behind the conventional thinking on issues as profound as war and offer yourself as the leader who is best prepared to chart a new and better course for America.”

His remarks came as part of the unveiling of a new stump speech meant to reinforce his change agenda to Iowa voters before the Jan. 3 caucuses. But at every stop Thursday, he started with a few words about the Bhutto assassination. “She was a respected and resilient advocate for the democratic aspirations of the Pakistani people,” Obama said. “We join with them in mourning her loss, and stand with them in their quest for democracy and against the terrorists who threaten the common security of the world.”

Aides said the senator from Illinois made several Pakistan-related phone calls between events, including to Anne W. Patterson, U.S. ambassador to Pakistan, and to Donald Kerr, deputy director of national intelligence. Obama also talked to Mahmud Ali Durrani, Pakistan’s ambassador to the United States, and urged his country to proceed with democratic elections. But mainly the Bhutto assassination was an undercurrent. No one in Obama’s audiences asked him about it, although when a man in Nevada, Iowa, asked about Obama’s plan for ending the Iraq war, the senator used it as a segue to lambaste the war for detracting from other regional problems, namely defeating al-Qaeda in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

“I’ve been saying for some time that we’ve got a very big problem” in Pakistan, Obama said. “We were distracted from focusing on them.” The phone calls put him behind schedule, and Obama apologized to a Marshalltown audience for showing up half an hour late, explaining that he had to check with U.S. officials involved in the crisis “to make sure that we knew what was going on.”

Axelrod, a senior Obama strategist, was more direct, linking the Pakistani crisis to the different positions that Clinton and Obama took on the Iraq war in 2002, when Clinton voted to authorize it in the U.S. Senate, and Obama, then an Illinois state senator, spoke out against it.

“Obama opposed the war in Iraq explicitly because he feared it would divert our attention from al-Qaeda, Pakistan, the whole region,” Axelrod said. “It underscores the fact that you have to have a president who understands the world, who is going to analyze these events, and who will chart the right course, counter to the conventional thinking.”

“There’s an issue of judgment,” Axelrod said. Obama warned that the war could destabilize the region, “and that’s come to pass. Certainly we see evidence of that even today.”

Edwards said during an interview on Radio Iowa that he had spoken with Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf, encouraging him “to continue on the path to democratization, to allow international investigators to come in to determine what happened, what the facts were, so that there would be transparency and credibility about what actually occurred and also about the upcoming schedule of elections and that the important thing for America to do in this unstable environment is first of all focus on the tragedy that’s occurred.”

Obama has broadly built his foreign policy agenda around his opposition to invading Iraq — citing that position as evidence of better judgment than his rivals — and around the tone he promises to bring to international diplomacy.

Clinton has attempted to straddle a difficult foreign policy line throughout the race, voicing sharp opposition to an Iraq war she voted to authorize while taking a hard line toward other countries, including Iran.

Her campaign advisers pounced on Obama’s and Axelrod’s comments. “This is a time to be focused on the tragedy of the situation, its implications for the U.S. and the world, and to be concerned for the people of Pakistan and the country’s stability. No one should be politicizing this situation with baseless allegations,” Clinton spokesman Jay Carson said.

At her first event of the day, in Lawton, Clinton delivered straightforward comments on the events in Pakistan. Several hours later, she grew more personal, recalling Bhutto as an acquaintance. Then Clinton tied the political turmoil in Pakistan to the elections in the United States. “When you think about democracy, you’re reminded that, in our country, we are the longest-lasting democracy in the world,” she said. “One of the great events in our democracy happens a week from tonight, right here in Iowa. And if anything, the terrible events of today are a stark reminder of how important it is for as many Iowans as possible to be part of the journey.”

Clinton then added her latest signature theme: “It’s time to pick a president.”

Obama predicted that the climate will get ugly in the days ahead, starting with a television ad scheduled to begin airing in Iowa on Friday attacking Obama’s health-care plan, paid for by the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, a Clinton labor ally.

“In seven days, what was improbable has the chance to beat what Washington said was inevitable,” Obama said. “And that’s why in these last weeks, Washington is fighting back with everything it has — with attack ads and insults; with distractions and dishonesty; with millions of dollars from outside groups and undisclosed donors to try and block our path.”

Published in: on December 28, 2007 at 9:38 am Comments (1)

Winter Break WK #2: “Can Anyone Win This Thing?”

By MICHAEL DUFFY

Republicans normally pour the same amount of uncertainty into picking a presidential nominee that Buckingham Palace puts into its Changing of the Guard. That is, as little as possible. Republicans prefer to find a brand-name, big-state Governor, surround him with the same right-thinking brains on taxes, foreign policy and the New Testament, back him with all the cash he will need to corner TV time in New Hampshire and then run the nominee through a quick gauntlet of primaries before anyone else has a chance at the prize. The whole thing makes for more of a ritual than a race, but there’s no doubting that the formula works. In the past seven presidential elections, GOP nominees have lost only twice.

But these are not normal times for Republican Party satraps, who can be best described these days as dispirited, confused and just plain tired. Their presidential nominating race has less clarity today than it did a year ago, less even than it did three months ago. Polls point to the political equivalent of a total solar eclipse, with three different Republicans leading in three of the initial primary and caucus states: Mike Huckabee in Iowa, Mitt Romney in New Hampshire and Rudy Giuliani in Michigan. None of these men, at present, would beat Hillary Clinton in a general-election matchup, and each would fare little better against Barack Obama. “If somebody could run as None of the Above,” says former McCain campaign chief John Weaver, “he would be the front runner.”

Watching the GOP search for a nominee has been a little like going to dinner at one of those mock medieval-jousting shows, where knight after knight appears in shining armor, only to be knocked rudely off his horse and into the dirt. Early White House favorites George Allen and Bill Frist quickly fell by the wayside in 2006. John McCain–too much of a maverick to ever be a GOP favorite, and yet a year ago the presumptive front runner–crash-landed his campaign this summer and is only now showing signs of an unlikely resurrection. His friend Fred Thompson materialized in midsummer to catch McCain’s crown, but he fizzled fast. Romney became the party’s default darling, spending his way to the top of several polls. But now he too has taken hits for being slippery, and what counts as momentum has passed to Huckabee, a former Baptist preacher from, of all places, Hope, Ark. The way the recurring nightmare has been going, Huckabee is likely to be unhorsed right about … now.

Even Giuliani, the national front runner–a title that normally means something in a GOP race but this year is the equivalent of “honorary chairman”–is slumping in polls. Republicans have no experience with chaos like this, except in history books. “It is without a doubt,” says GOP strategist Ralph Reed, “the most unpredictable roller-coaster ride we’ve seen in a Republican primary since the rise of the primary in the 1960s.” Party-history buff Newt Gingrich went further: he called the GOP contest the most wide-open race the party has held since 1940–the year Wendell Willkie needed six ballots to capture the nomination before losing to F.D.R. in a third-term landslide.

It’s improbable that someone named George Bush, the most visible beneficiary of the GOP’s longtime bias toward primogeniture, would be responsible for bringing its era to a halt. But he is chiefly to blame for leaving the party of his father and grandfather without a healthy male heir. Bush tapped Dick Cheney seven years ago to be his Veep in part because he did not want a Vice President whose loyalties were divided between the Oval Office and the Des Moines Register. Cheney ran once before and could have jumped in again (he will be only 67 in January) had things gone differently. But Cheney is even less popular than Bush, whose ratings move in a narrow band between the high 20s and mid-30s and have been dragging down fellow Republicans. Even if the war in Iraq continues to simmer down or the economy firms, Republicans aren’t likely to get much credit.

The disarray can’t be blamed on Bush entirely; he may even deserve credit for postponing it. Some students of the GOP have argued that the revolution that brought the party to power in Congress in 1994 was pretty much a spent force by 2000. Under this theory, Republicans should have lost that election but survived thanks to Bush’s qualities, the butterfly ballot and five Supreme Court Justices. Then 9/11 happened, which enabled Bush to win re-election, despite the fact that the GOP’s sell-by date had long since passed. The past seven years, in this view, were an anomaly that postponed the reckoning and made the GOP crash even more severe.

Still, it is hard to overestimate the moral and intellectual power outage that now darkens the GOP. Long out of step with a majority of voters on such secondary issues as outlawing abortion and narrowing stem-cell research, Republicans have more recently managed to get themselves on the wrong side of popular trends on what were once old reliables: foreign policy, economics, energy, even health care. Iraq is still somewhat taboo in Republican debates, so fearful are the candidates that the situation in Baghdad might again deteriorate. Thanks to Katrina and several war-contracting scandals, the party has squandered its bragging rights on running a more efficient government. “We’ve lost, clearly, some of the moral high ground on the larger issues of taxes and spending,” says South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford.

On one issue that might favor them next year–immigration–the leading Republicans have had to scramble to re-align themselves with voters in their base. Bush came into office in 2001 in favor of a pathway to citizenship for some illegals, only to discover that his party’s right flank opposed it. Giuliani, McCain and Romney, all of whom to varying degrees once backed that approach, have recalibrated their positions so that they share the public’s desire to secure the borders before granting aliens any legal rights to put down roots. The party’s nativist temptation is already having an impact: almost 6 out of every 10 Hispanic voters now call themselves Democrats or lean that way, according to a new Pew Center study–a shift of 13 points in party ID in the past year alone.

So what’s left to talk about? Peter Wehner, who worked for Bush in the White House on strategic initiatives for more than six years, wonders if the candidates’ repeated calls for an era of Reagan-like optimism aren’t anachronistic. “Some have lifted a script from the past,” he says, “without realizing the setting on the stage has changed.” The intellectual fatigue guarantees that the Republicans will fall back on the one issue that unites them: the Democrats. Giuliani has led the charge here, repeatedly naming Hillary Clinton in debates as the real threat facing the nation. But Sanford warns that there are limits to this approach. Sounding the alarm about Democrats may not work, he says, because the electorate is “fairly ticked off at Republicans.” But he adds that Republican self-doubt is so marked that if Jesus came back as a candidate, “people would say, ‘You know, I don’t like his beard.’”

That skepticism extends to nearly all the candidates as well. A Republican Governor put it this way: “If you took any one of these guys and held them up against the light and said, ‘Could this guy be President?’ you’d say, ‘I don’t think so.’” While they are, on paper, a distinguished group–a living hero and sitting U.S. Senator, a former Senator and popular actor, two former Governors and a prosecutor turned mayor of the nation’s most populous city–each has handicaps that are limiting.

McCain, already 71, would be the oldest President in history. Giuliani has so far tiptoed around the subjects of his ex-wives, his alienated children and questions about his business practices (see following story). Romney has been elected to office exactly once, has a record of changing his positions on an unusually wide range of issues, and just announced that he’s a Mormon to a nation that might not otherwise have known or even cared. Though as smooth as corn syrup on the outside, preacherman Huckabee is low on cash, light on organization and may not be able to fill the pews in New Hampshire the way he did in Iowa (see box). And then there’s Thompson, who has not found the transition from Hollywood’s low-lit soundstages to politics’ brighter lights as forgiving as many had hoped. Staffers have fled his campaign in horror throughout the fall, complaining that the candidate listens only to his wife. Thompson’s condition was summed up best by a New Hampshire woman who, when asked in a rival campaign’s focus group for her impressions of all the candidates, responded to a picture of the TV actor by saying, “Is he still running?”

Romney could be speaking for the entire field when he says, as he has done, “I’m not perfect.” But one longtime political operative explained that the flaws are grander and gaudier this time, and so the question for voters becomes not whom do you like, but who can win. That means, he says, that what the Republicans are mounting in 2008 is not a race of passion or principle but simply one of pragmatism. It may also explain why the party’s normally ferocious enthusiasm is so far absent in every poll.

And that problem brings up one other development in the race, something Republicans haven’t encountered since they locked arms with the Moral Majority in 1979: the party’s evangelical base has declared independence from its leaders. This fall, the Old Guard of the Christian right serially christened their preferred candidates. The Rev. Pat Robertson went for Giuliani; the National Right to Life Committee came out for Thompson; Bob Jones III and Paul Weyrich endorsed Romney. Few believed that Huckabee, the ordained Southern Baptist who actually seemed to be one of them, could win. And then, lo and behold, rank-and-file Evangelicals went off and lined up in unexpected numbers for the former Arkansas Governor. The falcons heard the falconers–and then flew off in a different direction. It’s another sign of a party whose power structure has uncoupled from the people who put it in power in the first place.

This predicament cannot last forever–but it can go on for a while yet. Normally the GOP comes to a decision quickly, and the Democrats stretch the process into the baseball season, bickering over delegates, platform planks, rules and speaking rights before everyone swears loyalty to the long-settled nominee. All that, and possibly more, could happen on the other side this time. But Republicans have at least one organic strength that will help them weather this confusion: they are tops in a knife fight. So uncomfortable is the party with anything that resembles an unsettled race after New Hampshire that its armies typically loose upon one another every nasty charge and attack ad they can afford, desperate to slice the field down to one or at the most two remaining contenders. This stage of the race is under way. It will be up to the lucky survivor to put the pieces of the party back together.

Who benefits, in the meantime, from all this upheaval? Every campaign has its constantly adjusting story line, how a win here by one guy or there by another benefits its man. McCain’s team thinks the party will come to its senses and rally around the veteran. Romney hopes to emerge as the least objectionable choice everywhere. Giuliani’s entire campaign is predicated on chaos lasting until late January, when he thinks he can clobber his rivals in Florida. And Huckabee is hoping for a miracle. Only one thing is guaranteed: some candidate, however bruised and battered, will survive this gauntlet. John Sears, the master GOP strategist who worked for Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan and is watching the demolition derby, calls the race “a record setter.” But he notes that someone will win it. “All politics is about,” says Sears, “is being a little better than the other guy.”

With reporting by With Reporting by James Carney, Karen Tumulty / Washington, NANCY GIBBS, Andrea Sachs / New York

Winter Break WK #2: “The Run of an Also Ran”

By Joel Stein

There is something noble about this. Driving hundreds of miles across Iowa, fueled by fast food and a few hours of sleep, Willie Lomaning to groups of 20, selling them on how to make our country better. You have to be real close, however, to see this nobility. Because from a distance, running for President as a second- or third-tier candidate looks like self-delusional narcissism.

There are 17 people left running for President from the two major parties, most of them powerful, important Senators and Representatives who, when they decided to run, seemed as viable as a black first-term Senator, a Mormon former Governor of Massachusetts or a much reviled former First Lady. Yet now, for various reasons, they can’t get anyone to pay attention.

Joe Biden, head of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, a man who has been in the Senate since he was elected 35 years ago at age 29, is sitting in the fluorescent-lit community center in Grundy Center, Iowa, facing 18 senior citizens, when his tiny wooden chair snaps in two. “Ruth,” he says, standing up and looking at the first name tag in front of him, “this is a dangerous job, running for President.” In a time of war, Biden is the candidate with the most foreign policy experience. He was talked up as a possible front runner when he ran for the 1988 Democratic nomination. This time, however, his candidacy has gotten nowhere.

Biden clearly knows a lot, rattling off practical liberal-policy solutions for all manner of domestic and international challenges, but he’s just all wrong for 2007. He refers to himself in the third person, calls the Russians “Soviets,” leans patronizingly into people’s faces and brags about passing legislation by saying “I did it with my own little paw, folks.” When a young girl from the Scholastic journalism program asks him when he’ll bring the troops home, he gives her a three-minute-long answer that’s not really an answer.

That night, he attends a Democratic presidential debate. This is not one of the ones nationally broadcast on CNN or even PBS. It’s held by a tiny Democratic group in Waterloo, Iowa, that got in its head that anyone can host a debate at the local high school. More absurd than this is the fact that Biden and Chris Dodd both show up. As the elderly moderator goes over the detailed, confusing rules about time limits–the breaking of which will result with loud beeps like a very unfun game of Taboo–the Senators stand quietly at their lecterns, having been rebuked for interrupting. Only 20% of the seats in the high school auditorium are filled, but the audience gets to witness the only political debate outside of China with 100% agreement on everything.

Chriss Dodd, the head of the Senate Banking Committee, pulls in 1 more percentage point in national polling numbers than you do. Instead of trying to get people to come see him, Dodd goes where the people are. On a Friday night he’s buying a buffet of Irish stew and soda bread at Jameson’s Bar in Waterloo and walking around like the perfect dad at his daughter’s wedding.

If you live in Iowa and you haven’t had your back slapped by Chris Dodd, you are not getting out enough. Steve Ferguson came to Jameson’s after work to meet some friends and talk about his baseball league. “I was just sitting there, and I got a slap on the back, and it’s Senator Dodd,” says Ferguson. And for those who don’t get out enough, Dodd has scheduled “kitchen table” events, in which he goes to your house and talks about the issues.

Sure, a quarter of the people at the packed bar are talking through his speech, with its perfectly calibrated shouting that doesn’t feel like shouting, exactly what Howard Dean was attempting when he derailed, the kind that makes you want to totally crush the other football team. But even the talkers like the bits they catch. “Buck, I tell you what we’re going to do,” Dodd yells from the stage to the bar’s owner. “I’m going to need a bartender in the White House.”

Dodd isn’t leading a campaign so much as a party at which the host is having too much fun to realize no guests have shown up.

Tom Tancredo, the far-right Republican Congressman with such an extreme stance against illegal immigration that, he says, he’s been barred from the White House, handles his dying campaign like a bombing stand-up comic. “I must admit, there was a debate I won hands down,” he tells a group of supporters he’s gathered for lunch. “The NAACP one. I was the only Republican that showed! But I got a standing ovation. It was because I showed up! But they gave me a standing ovation when I left. Maybe that’s because I left!” Tip your waitresses. But check their papers first.

Tancredo’s version of Dodd’s Irish bar is anywhere there are guns. In two days in Iowa, he hits up two shooting ranges. His speech is riddled with self-interruption, his anti-immigration venom prefaced by endless apologia about how this isn’t about race, guys, seriously. He simply cannot match the intensity of his base; in fact, when he took an online test to see which candidate he would support, Tom Tancredo was only 89% in alignment on the issues with Tom Tancredo. And he’s not sure how long he can keep this up–these delayed connecting flights causing him to miss votes in the House and his grandkids’ football games.

With just over $100,000 cash on hand, and having decided not to run for re-election in Congress, Tancredo is down to just a few aides, one of whom, not seeing the irony, signs off her campaign e-mails for “Tank” Tancredo with “Keep on Tankin’.” The Colorado Congressman says he was never running to win; he just wanted to move his anti-amnesty, pro-assimilation agenda to the forefront of the party’s agenda. But now it seems as if he’s wondering if he’s the wrong messenger. And if he’ll be glad when it’s over.

Each of these candidates harbors a Rocky-like hope. But they’re also in deep–financially to donors and emotionally to volunteers who have quit jobs or taken a semester off from school–so they need a reason to stop other than pride or exhaustion.

In mid-October, a few days before he will drop out of the race, Republican Senator Sam Brownback is lost and late, being driven around Iowa by a college intern in the Brownback family’s Chrysler minivan. He is looking at a map, pumping his own gas, paying with his own credit card and then running into McDonald’s. “$7.15? For a yogurt parfait and a small cheeseburger?” Brownback asks the cashier, who explains that the college kid got a Big Mac. “Oh,” he says, and drags a $20 bill and a quarter from his pocket.

The Kansas Senator cannot figure out why his conservative message isn’t connecting, and is confounded when Republicans bemoan the lack of a real conservative in the race. “Whenever I hear it, I’m over in the corner raising my hand: ‘Hello? Hello?’”

Now, at Loras College, a tiny Catholic school in Iowa, Brownback is speaking to a pro-life group. Five minutes into his talk, standing in front of a statue of Jesus on the Cross, he mentions his daughter. He has been talking to her on the phone all day as she boards flights to head home to Kansas. He hasn’t seen her since she joined Teach for America months ago. It will be days before he’s home. And he starts to cry.

Published in: on at 9:25 am Comments (0)

Winter Break WK #2: “Trudging Through Iowa”

By Joe Klein

This is when running for President gets really hard. A bleak, windy Sunday morning in Fort Dodge, Iowa. The local roads are ice. As John Edwards enters the community-college cafeteria, his campaign workers are picking up rows of chairs–to make sure the media don’t shoot the empty seats. Edwards trudges through his stump speech–the least engaged I’ve ever seen him–and specifically asks the sparse gathering for questions about the issues he considers important: health care, global warming, poverty, the economy. There are none such. The questions are odd, off point. A Native American accuses Hillary Clinton of saying something outrageous about Native Americans; Edwards says he doesn’t think she could possibly have said that. A child asks if George W. Bush’s next job should be on Comedy Central. “I don’t think he’s very funny,” Edwards replies.

The next stop is better, but not much better, and there are several more stops after that. Edwards’ passionate, populist stump speech reminds you that his greatest strength as a trial lawyer used to be his closing argument. But this is Iowa, where all closing arguments are being delivered to hung juries. Even the people who support Edwards aren’t so sure.

I mention all this not to heap slag or prognostication–the journalistic equivalent of slag–upon the Edwards campaign but to give you a sense of what life is like for nearly every one of the candidates dragging themselves defiantly through Iowa in the final weeks of this campaign. No one knows what’s going to happen–and almost everyone appears to be losing ground, slipping on the Iowa ice, with the possible exceptions of Barack Obama and, on the Republican side, Mike Huckabee.

Obama’s appearance in Des Moines with Oprah Winfrey was startling, the largest crowd I’ve ever seen at a precaucus event. The Senator gave a riveting speech–and so did the TV celebrity, who riffed on a line from an old movie about a former slave, The Autobiography of Miss Jane Pittman, in which the protagonist would ask young people, “Are you the one?” Winfrey then proclaimed, “I’m here to tell you, he is the one.” That was probably too portentous for anything but daytime television. But the freshness of Obama’s personality, the easy elegance of his mind–and the fact that his fabulously American racial provenance has become an afterthought for so many winter-pale Iowans–have been the most memorable aspect of this primary season.

It has been an odd campaign for Democrats. The leading candidates are pretty much in agreement on what the big issues are–a new multilateralism overseas, a more comprehensive health-insurance system, the need to address global warming and the hope that the search for new energy sources will create new jobs–and on how to solve them. Edwards gets credit for laying out his dramatic plans first, especially for health care and global warming. Clinton gets credit for the smartest, most detailed plans. Senator Joe Biden gets credit for the unadorned, and short-winded, wit and intelligence of his debate performances.

Given the similarity of their positions and that presidential campaigns inevitably turn on character, it seems likely that this Iowa caucus will be decided personally, viscerally, for reasons that the voters themselves can’t always explain. In Algona, Iowa, I spoke with Chris and Martin Peterson, two former Republicans turned off by the Bush Administration, who seemed stumped by their own preferences this year. Chris was thinking about voting for Obama. “I just like him,” she said. Her husband Martin was leaning toward Bill Richardson, citing the New Mexico Governor’s humorous ads. This may dismay wonks, who want voters to choose the candidate with the best carbon-pollution-auction plan, but it is how elections are usually decided.

Journalists talk about the importance of the “ground game” in Iowa, which is shorthand for an organization’s ability to schlep voters to the polls on caucus night. Journalists make scholarly pronouncements about which candidates have the best ground game, but here’s a secret: journalists have no idea. In Algona, I spoke to Bill Farnham, a stockbroker, who praised the local Obama organizer, a young man named Nate Hundt, for really ingratiating himself with the community. But Clinton may have the dynamite organizer in Pella; Edwards, in Greenfield. Ground games are unknowable.

In recent days, a slight breeze of sentiment seems to be helping Obama and hurting Clinton. That could shift three times between now and Jan. 3. But neither of them nor any of the other Democrats have anything to be embarrassed about if they lose. It has been a good, substantive, almost civil campaign.

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Winter Break WK #2: Assorted Political Things

House members spent $20 million on mailings

Dennis Conrad
Associated Press
December 28, 2007

WASHINGTON – U.S. House members spent $20.3 million in tax money last year to send constituents what’s often the government equivalent of junk mail – meeting announcements, tips on car care and job interviews, surveys on public policy and just plain bragging.

They sent nearly 116 million pieces of mail in all, many of them glossy productions filled with flattering photos and lists of the latest roads and bridges the lawmaker has brought home to the district, a review of public records shows.

 

A dozen House members spent more than $133,000 each to send 9.8 million pieces of mass mailings. Total cost? $1.8 million.

Of the 64 House members with at least $100,000 in taxpayer-funded mailing expenses – and overwhelmingly for mass mailings – 42 were Republicans and 22 were Democrats, the review found.

Rep. Dave Reichert, R-Wash., ranked 16th among House members, spending $143,843.03. Rep. Rick Larsen, D-Wash., ranked 56th at $105,082.98.

In sharp contrast, 59 lawmakers in the 435-member House – 35 Republicans and 24 Democrats – spent nothing on mass mailings. They tended to be the more experienced House members, often with 14 or more years of service.

Rep. Doc Hastings, R-Wash., and Rep. Jim McDermott, D-Wash., were among that group.

Mass mailings cannot be blatantly political, but they still can have political benefits, said Pete Sepp, a spokesman for the National Taxpayers’ Union, which has condemned mass mailings.

“A taxpayer-financed mailing doesn’t have to say ‘re-elect me’ to have an impact on voters,” Sepp said. “A glossy newsletter splashed with the incumbent’s achievements in Congress can build useful credentials a lawmaker can take with him to the ballot box. The franking privilege is one of the main cogs in Congress’ PR machine.”

Franking, practiced since the early days of the republic, lets members of Congress send mail with just a signature where the postage would normally be affixed. The mailings are regulated by a congressional commission to guard against overt political appeals and cannot go out within 90 days of an election.

Nation in brief: No licenses for illegal immigants

December 28, 2007

Illegal immigrants are ineligible for driver’s licenses, Michigan’s attorney general said Thursday in an opinion that affects one of the few states that have been granting licenses to undocumented residents.

Attorney General Mike Cox’s opinion is legally binding on state agencies and officers unless reversed by the courts. It was not immediately known how soon any changes would take place or what the opinion means for illegal immigrants with currently valid licenses.

Michigan law prohibits the secretary of state from issuing a driver’s license to a nonresident. Cox, a Republican, said it would be inconsistent with federal law to regard an illegal immigrant as a permanent resident in Michigan.

 

Whether illegal immigrants should get licenses has become a major political issue. Earlier this year, New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer proposed to give driver’s licenses to illegal immigrants, but he ended up withdrawing that plan after intense opposition.

Winter Break WK #2: “Death brings terrorism back to the fore of U.S. presidential race”

Associated Press
December 27, 2007

WASHINGTON — One week before the Iowa caucuses, the assassination of former Pakistani leader Benazir Bhutto pushed terrorism to the forefront in voters’ minds and highlighted the candidacies of presidential hopefuls with long records on national security.

Bhutto’s assassination today rippled through the presidential race as candidates scrambled to respond and adjusted campaign plans on a day overshadowed by the terrorist attack in Rawalpindi.

The deadly incident at an election rally in Pakistan could help presidential candidates such as Republican Rudy Giuliani, who was in charge of New York City when terrorists struck on Sept. 11, 2001, and Vietnam War veteran John McCain, a longtime member of the Senate Armed Services Committee.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Rodham Clinton has argued that her experience makes her prepared to lead the nation in troubled times. Rival Barack Obama has pushed a hard line in dealing with Pakistan and the search for Osama bin Laden.

Clinton said she had come to know Bhutto during the former prime minister’s years in office and her time in exile and was “profoundly saddened and outraged” by the assassination.

“She returned to Pakistan to fight for democracy despite threats and previous attempts on her life, and now she has made the ultimate sacrifice. Her death is a tragedy for her country and a terrible reminder of the work that remains to bring peace, stability and hope to regions of the globe too often paralyzed by fear, hatred, and violence,” Clinton said in a statement.

Giuliani said the assassination underscored a need for the U.S. to increase its efforts to combat terrorism.

“Her murderers must be brought to justice, and Pakistan must continue the path back to democracy and the rule of law,” Giuliani said in a statement. “Her death is a reminder that terrorism anywhere — whether in New York, London, Tel-Aviv or Rawalpindi — is an enemy of freedom. We must redouble our efforts to win the terrorists’ war on us.”

McCain, in a statement, said the death of Bhutto “underscores yet again the grave dangers we face in the world today and particularly in countries like Pakistan, where the forces of moderation are arrayed in a fierce battle against those who embrace violent Islamic extremism.

“Given Pakistan’s strategic location, the international terrorist groups that operate from its soil, and its nuclear arsenal, the future of that country has deep implications for the security of the United States and its allies. America must stand on the right side of this ongoing struggle,” he said, noting that he has made numerous visits to Pakistan.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney focused on the threat of “global, violent radical jihadism.”

“This type of loss of life points out again the need for our nation and other civilized nations of the West and Muslim world to come together to support moderate Islamic leaders and moderate Islamic people to help them in their effort to reject the violence and the extreme,” Romney told reporters after his first campaign event at Norton’s Classic Cafe, in Hudson, N.H. “The world is very much at risk by virtue of these radical, violent extremists and we must come together, in great haste and great earnestness, to help overcome the threat of the spread of radical, violent jihad.”

On Wednesday night, Romney had criticized Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf for imposing martial law. Romney was asked if he had more sympathy for such action given the attack on Bhutto.

“I believe it was a mistake. I believe as well that martial law was principally imposed by him to protect himself from political challenge, a challenge from the Supreme Court and others, and believe that it was not a productive course for his nation,” Romney said.

Obama said he was shocked and saddened by Bhutto’s death.

“She was a respected and resilient advocate for the democratic aspirations of the Pakistani people. We join with them in mourning her loss, and stand with them in their quest for democracy and against the terrorists who threaten the common security of the world,” he said.

Republican candidate Mike Huckabee said the assassination was “devastating news for the people of Pakistan, and my prayers go out to them.”

“The terrible violence surrounding Pakistan’s upcoming election stands in stark contrast to the peaceful transition of power that we embrace in our country through our Constitution,” Huckabee said in a statement.

Democratic New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, a former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, called on President Bush to force Musharraf to step down. Until then, Richardson said the U.S. must suspend military aid to the Pakistani government.

“A leader has died, but democracy must live. The United States government cannot stand by and allow Pakistan’s return to democracy to be derailed or delayed by violence,” Richardson said.

The Bush administration has pushed hard for peaceful elections in Pakistan, a nuclear-armed nation led by Musharraf, a U.S. ally in the anti-terror war.

Bhutto was killed in an attack on an election rally in Rawalpindi. Many others were killed in a blast that took place as Bhutto left the rally where she had addressed thousands of supporters in her campaign for Jan. 8 parliamentary elections.

Bhutto served twice as Pakistan’s prime minister between 1988 and 1996. She had returned to Pakistan from an eight-year exile Oct. 18. Her homecoming parade in Karachi was also targeted by a suicide attacker, and more than 140 people were killed. On that occasion she narrowly escaped injury.

Winter Break WK #2: “Internet intensifies campaign frenzies”

Jonathan Tilove
Newhouse News Service
December 27, 2007

Come the New Year, America plunges headlong into a whirlwind presidential primary and caucus calendar with wide-open races in both parties.

It may be the most exciting and volatile presidential election season in generations, all the more so given a new media landscape in which scandalous rumor can strike like lightning out of cyberspace, even skewing outcomes before charges are vetted or rebutted.

“It’s ‘Feeding Frenzy’ to the tenth power,” said Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political scientist, referring to his influential 1991 book, which was subtitled “How Attack Journalism Has Transformed American Politics.”

 

When it comes to scandal-mongering, Sabato said, the Internet is viral in every sense of the word. “It’s just taken what was a serious problem and turned it into the bubonic plague,” he said.

Salacious e-mails accusing candidates of every manner of misdeed arrive every day, Sabato said. The blogosphere is a perpetual wellspring of innuendo, and the mainstream press, desperate not to be left behind, finds itself ready to rationalize reporting on rumor.

“If it’s ‘out there,’ that’s enough excuse,” he said. ” ‘It’s affecting people’s votes,’ they say, and so it’s OK to go with it.”

Dhavan Shah, a professor of journalism and political science at the University of Wisconsin, sees the makings of a “perfect storm” that could play havoc with the nominating process. “It’s happening at such a pace that some of this information doesn’t have the normal filters of political journalism,” he said.

And Matthew Hindman, professor of information technology and politics at Arizona State University, said he “would bet large sums of money that there is going to be a scandal emerging in this election that would be discovered or disseminated first on a blog.” Hindman has written a book, tentatively titled “The Myth of Digital Democracy,” due out next fall.

In the long run, said Brown University political scientist Darrell West, the truth will out.

But the Iowa caucuses are Jan. 3; the New Hampshire primary is five days later. By Super Tuesday, Feb. 5, more than half the states will have voted.

“The trouble is in the short run, and we now have a very compressed nomination schedule where the short run is everything,” said West, author of “The Rise and Fall of the Media Establishment.”

In 2003, West, playing off Sabato’s coinage, wrote about “responsibility frenzies in news coverage” — occasions when the mainstream press refrained from covering the “salacious and tawdry.” But he thinks that kind of restraint is less likely now.

“Over the last decade we have seen the flourishing of the Internet and the rise of bloggers and nobody’s policing discourse anymore,” West said. “You can basically say anything you want.”

To many, of course, this freedom is not a problem but a great virtue.

“I think this kind of uh-oh-what-bad-could-happen story has been done a thousand times … and the world has not collapsed,” said Jeff Jarvis, who blogs about the media at Buzzmachine.com and is director of the interactive journalism program at the City University of New York’s Graduate School of Journalism.

“We’re not a nation of idiots. There are lot of gatekeepers and filters, among them the minds of the voters (if you don’t trust that, then hang up the Constitution).”

What’s more, Jarvis said, “You could talk about the rumors that get debunked quickly — more quickly than some media outlets print corrections.”

Indeed, Mickey Kaus, whose blog, Kausfiles, is on Slate.com, views the wild ride ahead as the surest path to the truth.

“Good investigative journalism depends on a little bit of mania,” Kaus said. “Sources have to be panicked to come forward.”

Kaus has been criticized for mentioning the specifics of scandal rumors on his site, but, as he said in a December exchange on Bloggingheads.TV with Robert Wright, only by posting one rumor did he learn to his satisfaction that it was unfounded. “You get feedback from your readers. The truth is found faster that way.”

And in a Nov. 1 post, Kaus relished rumors that a “potentially devastating sex scandal involving a leading presidential candidate” was in the offing, rumors he hoped would serve as a kind of “depth charge,” blowing every latent scandal public.

“Let all the scandals that lurk in the mud hatch out,” he continued. “I assume depth-charging will become a permanent feature of electoral politics.

“They tell me the Internet has changed things! Is there a problem? The true rumors will be confirmed and the phony rumors won’t be confirmed. But it will be harder to suppress the former. Isn’t the purpose of the primary campaigns to find out everything about the candidates before they are nominated?”

But political scientist Michael Cornfield believes the campaign schedule is the enemy of truth.

“In the short run, the rapid-response teams and journalistic fact-check operations can push back and be heard by the electorate,” Cornfield, author of “Politics Moves Online: Campaigning and the Internet,” wrote in an e-mail. “But I think the `short-run’ requires a week at least.”

Who knows? Everything is new. The campaign timetable. The fluid field, which includes groundbreaking candidates certain to engender fierce passions and resistance.

“We have a woman, a black, a Mormon and a Christian fundamentalist who are leading candidates,” said West. “There’s something to upset nearly everyone in America.”

Winter Break WK #2: “Democrats need to get real”

David S. Broder
Washington Post
December 27, 2007

After one year of Democratic majorities in the House and Senate, public approval ratings for Congress have sunk below their level when Republicans were still in control. A Washington Post poll earlier this month put the approval score at 32 percent, the disapproval at 60.

In the last such survey during Republican control, congressional approval was 36 percent. So what are the Democrats to make of that? They could be using this interregnum before the start of their second year to evaluate their strategy and improve their standing. But if Nancy Pelosi, the speaker of the House and leader of their new majority, is to be believed, they are, instead, going to brag about their achievements.

 

In a year-end “fact sheet,” her office proclaimed that “the Democratic-led House is listening to the American people and providing the New Direction the people voted for in November. The House has passed a wide range of measures to make America safer, restore the American dream and restore accountability. We are proud of the progress made this session and recognize that more needs to be done.”

While surveys by the Washington Post and other news organizations show the public believes little or nothing of value has been accomplished in a year of bitter partisan wrangling on Capitol Hill, Pelosi claims that “the House has had a remarkable level of achievement over the first year, passing 130 key measures – with nearly 70 percent passing with significant bipartisan support.”

That figure is achieved by setting the bar conveniently low – measuring as bipartisan any issue in which even 50 House Republicans broke ranks to vote with the Democrats. Thus, a party-line vote in which Democrats supported but most Republicans opposed criminal penalties for price-gouging on gasoline was converted, in Pelosi’s accounting, into a “bipartisan” vote because it was backed by 56 Republicans.

There is more sleight of hand in her figures. Among the “key measures” counted in the press release are voice votes to protect infants from unsafe cribs and high chairs, and to require drain covers on pools and spas. Such wins bulk up the statistics. Many other “victories” credited to the House were later undone by the Senate, including all the restrictions voted on the deployment of troops in Iraq. And on 46 of the measures passed by the House, more than one-third of the total, the notation is added, “The president has threatened to veto,” or has already vetoed the bill.

One would think that high level of institutional warfare would be of concern to the Democrats. But there is no suggestion in this recital that any adjustment to the nation’s priorities may be required. If Pelosi is to be believed, the Democrats will keep challenging the Bush veto strategy for the remaining 12 months of his term – and leave it up to him to make any compromises.

An honest assessment of the year would credit the Democrats with some achievements. They passed an overdue increase in the minimum wage, and wrote some useful ethics legislation. They finally took the first steps to increase the pressure on Detroit to improve auto mileage efficiency.

But much of the year’s political energy was squandered on futile efforts to micromanage the strategy in Iraq, and in the end, the Democrats yielded every point to the president. That left their presidential candidates arguing for measures in Iraq that have limited relevance to events on the ground – a potential weak point in the coming election.

The major Democratic presidential hopefuls all have their political careers rooted in Congress, and the vulnerabilities of that Congress will in time come home to roost with them. Today, Democrats take some comfort from the fact that their approval ratings in Congress look marginally better than the Republicans’. In the most recent Post poll, Democrats are at 40 percent approval; Republicans, at 32 percent. But more disapprove than approve of both parties.

That is another reason it behooves the Democrats to get real about their own record on Capitol Hill. It needs improvement. And in less than a year, the voters will deliver their own verdict.

Winter Break WK #2: “Alaska governor bucks party, tradition”

State’s first female leader has raised oil taxes and posed for Vogue

Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, a Sandpoint, Idaho, native, listens to questions during an interview in her office earlier this month in Juneau. Associated Press (Associated Press)

Steve Quinn
Associated Press
December 27, 2007

JUNEAU, Alaska – In her first year as governor of Alaska, Sarah Palin has plunged ahead with the fearlessness of a polar explorer.

The populist Republican, who was born in Sandpoint, Idaho, has raised taxes on the powerful oil industry. She has pushed through ethics legislation amid a burgeoning corruption investigation of Alaska lawmakers.

She has bucked her party’s old guard. And she has ordered her administration to seek fewer congressional earmarks after Alaska’s “Bridge to Nowhere” became a national symbol of piggish pork-barrel spending.

The 43-year-old University of Idaho graduate has emerged as a national figure and media darling, posing recently for Vogue magazine.

Alaska’s first female governor, a former Miss Wasilla with upswept light-brown hair, says it is her responsibility to be available even to fashion magazines if it can help change the state’s reputation for graft and gluttony at the public trough.

“We’ve got to make sure the rest of the United States doesn’t believe the only thing going on in Alaska is FBI probes and corruption trials,” Palin said.

Palin was just three months old when her family moved from Sandpoint to Alaska, her father, Chuck Heath, told The Spokesman-Review in 2006. She returned to Idaho to attend UI, graduating in 1987 with a degree in journalism.

 

Heath grew up in Hope, Idaho, and taught in Sandpoint schools in the early 1960s.

Palin has dismissed speculation she might leave Juneau for higher office before her term expires in 2010, saying, “My role as governor is where I can be most helpful right now unless something drastic happens, and I don’t anticipate that right now.”

Nevertheless, John J. Pitney Jr., a political scientist with Claremont McKenna College in California and former analyst for congressional Republicans, said Palin could be an ideal presidential running mate next year.

“What separates her from others is that at a time when Republicans have suffered from the taint of corruption, she represents clean politics,” Pitney said.

“The public stereotype of Republican is a wrinkled old guy taking cash under the table,” he said. “One way for Republicans to break the stereotype is with a female reformer.”

Party labels seem to mean very little to Palin. Her revenue commissioner is a Democrat. Her husband, Todd, a blue-collar worker on Alaska’s oil-rich North Slope, is an independent.

The mother of four is often seen bounding down the Capitol stairwell, holding a pink backpack and rushing to get her 6-year-old daughter, Piper, off to school on time – something that Pitney said could make Palin more appealing to a national audience.

The former mayor of the Anchorage suburb of Wasilla ran on ethics reform in trouncing Gov. Frank Murkowski in the GOP primary. In the general election, she handily beat former Gov. Tony Knowles, a Democrat.

She immediately took on the state’s most lucrative industry, questioning whether Alaska – which gets about 85 percent of its revenue from big oil – is getting its fair share of the oil companies’ billions of dollars in quarterly profits.

She got what she wanted from the GOP-controlled Legislature. Relying heavily on Democratic votes, she won approval last month to boost taxes on oil company profits from 22.5 percent to 25 percent. That could bring in an additional $1.6 billion annually for the state, depending on oil prices.

The state has also accepted bids for the right to build a multibillion-dollar pipeline to deliver Alaska’s natural gas to the rest of the nation.

On the same day a former Alaska lawmaker was convicted on federal bribery charges, Palin signed an ethics reform bill into law.

Since then, two more former lawmakers have been found guilty of bribery related to VECO Corp., an oil field contractor. Another former lawmaker awaits trial, and Sen. Ted Stevens and Rep. Don Young, both Republicans, are under investigation.

Palin’s climb is being done without the backing of the state Republican Party, led by Randy Ruedrich. In 2004, as chairwoman of the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission, Palin exposed Ruedrich for ethics violations when he was a fellow commissioner.

She has also made trouble for the party’s establishment by calling on Stevens to give the public an explanation of why the feds have raided Stevens’ Alaska home in the investigation of his ties to VECO’s founder.

“I don’t sweat it at all that the partisanship isn’t playing a big part of my agenda,” Palin said. “What that tells me is this: that I’m on the right track, and that it hasn’t stopped us.”

Winter Break WK #2: “The Résumé Factor: Those 8 Years as First Lady”

By PATRICK HEALY

As first lady, Hillary Rodham Clinton jaw-boned the authoritarian president of Uzbekistan to leave his car and shake hands with people. She argued with the Czech prime minister about democracy. She cajoled Roman Catholic and Protestant women to talk to one another in Northern Ireland. She traveled to 79 countries in total, little of it leisure; one meeting with mutilated Rwandan refugees so unsettled her that she threw up afterward.

But during those two terms in the White House, Mrs. Clinton did not hold a security clearance. She did not attend National Security Council meetings. She was not given a copy of the president’s daily intelligence briefing. She did not assert herself on the crises in Somalia, Haiti and Rwanda.

And during one of President Bill Clinton’s major tests on terrorism, whether to bomb Afghanistan and Sudan in 1998, Mrs. Clinton was barely speaking to her husband, let alone advising him, as the Lewinsky scandal sizzled.

In seeking the Democratic presidential nomination, Mrs. Clinton lays claim to two traits nearly every day: strength and experience. But as the junior senator from New York, she has few significant legislative accomplishments to her name. She has cast herself, instead, as a first lady like no other: a full partner to her husband in his administration, and, she says, all the stronger and more experienced for her “eight years with a front-row seat on history.”

Her rivals scoff at the idea that her background gives her any special qualifications for the presidency. Senator Barack Obama has especially questioned “what experiences she’s claiming” as first lady, noting that the job is not the same as being a cabinet member, much less president.

And late last week, Mr. Obama suggested that more foreign policy experts from the Clinton administration were supporting his candidacy than hers; his campaign released a list naming about 45 of them, and said that others were not ready to go public. Mrs. Clinton quickly put out a list of 80 who were supporting her, and plans to release another 75 names on Wednesday.

Mrs. Clinton’s role in her most high-profile assignment as first lady, the failed health care initiative of the early 1990s, has been well documented. Yet little has been made public about her involvement in foreign policy and national security as first lady. Documents about her work remain classified at the National Archives. Mrs. Clinton has declined to divulge the private advice she gave her husband.

An interview with Mrs. Clinton, conversations with 35 Clinton administration officials and a review of books about her White House years suggest that she was more of a sounding board than a policy maker, who learned through osmosis rather than decision-making, and who grew gradually more comfortable with the use of military power.

Her time in the White House was a period of transition in foreign policy and national security, with the cold war over and the threat of Islamic terrorism still emerging. As a result, while in the White House, she was never fully a part of either the old school that had been focused on the Soviet Union and the possibility of nuclear war or the more recent strain of national security thinking defined by issues like nonstate threats and the proliferation of nuclear technology.

Associates from that time said that she was aware of Al Qaeda and Osama bin Laden and what her husband has in recent years characterized as his intense focus on them, but that she made no aggressive independent effort to shape policy or gather information about the threat of terrorism.

She did not wrestle directly with many of the other challenges the next president will face, including managing a large-scale deployment — or withdrawal — of troops abroad, an overhaul of the intelligence agencies or the effort to halt the spread of nuclear weapons technology. Most of her exposure to the military has come since she left the White House through her seat on the Senate Armed Services Committee.

When it came to the regional conflicts in the Balkans, she, along with many officials, was cautious at first about supporting American military intervention, though she later backed air strikes against the Serbs and the NATO-led peacekeeping mission in Kosovo.

Her role mostly involved what diplomats call “soft power” — converting cold war foes into friends, supporting nonprofit work and good-will endeavors, and pressing her agenda on women’s rights, human trafficking and the expanded use of microcredits, tiny loans to help individuals in poor countries start small businesses.

Asked to name three major foreign policy decisions where she played a decisive role as first lady, Mrs. Clinton responded in generalities more than specifics, describing her strategic roles on trips to Bosnia, Kosovo, Northern Ireland, India, Africa and Latin America.

Asked to cite a significant foreign policy object lesson from the 1990s, Mrs. Clinton also replied with broad observations. “There are a lot of them,” she said. “The whole unfortunate experience we’ve had with the Bush administration, where they haven’t done what we’ve needed to do to reach out to the rest of the world, reinforces my experience in the 1990s that public diplomacy, showing respect and understanding of people’s different perspectives — it’s more likely to at least create the conditions where we can exercise our values and pursue our interests.”

Crisis at Home and Terror Afar

There were times, though, when Mrs. Clinton did not appear deeply involved in some of Mr. Clinton’s hardest moments on national security. He faced a major one in 1998 — the bombings of the United States Embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, and subsequently whether to bomb Afghanistan and Sudan. Just days after he acknowledged to his wife, the public and a grand jury that he had had a relationship with Monica Lewinsky, Mr. Clinton ordered cruise missile strikes on targets suspected to be a terrorist training camp in Afghanistan and a chemical weapons factory in Sudan.

“It was the height of Monica, and they were barely talking to each other, if at all,” said one senior national security official who spoke with both Clintons during that time.

Asked if she talked to the president about the military choices or advised him, regardless of their personal problems, Mrs. Clinton was elliptical.

“I was very proud of him, he did what he thought he was supposed to do as president based on the best intelligence he had,” she said. “And he was well aware that there would be those that would certainly criticize him for it.”

Friends of Mrs. Clinton say that she acted as adviser, analyst, devil’s advocate, problem-solver and gut check for her husband, and that she has an intuitive sense of how brutal the job can be. What is clear, she and others say, is that Mr. Clinton often consulted her, and that Mrs. Clinton gained experience that Mr. Obama, John Edwards and every other candidate lack — indeed, that most incoming presidents did not have.

“In the end, she was the last court of appeal for him when he was making a decision,” said Mickey Kantor, a close Clinton friend who served as trade representative and commerce secretary. “I would be surprised if there was any major decision he made that she didn’t weigh in on.” (Mr. Clinton declined an interview request.)

But other administration officials, as well as opponents of Mrs. Clinton, are skeptical that the couple’s conversations and her 79 trips add up to unique experience that voters should reward. She was not independently judging intelligence, for the most part, or mediating the data, egos and agendas of a national security team. And, in the end, she did not feel or process the weight of responsibility.

Susan Rice, a National Security Council senior aide and State Department official under Mr. Clinton who now advises Mr. Obama, said Mrs. Clinton was not involved in “the heavy lifting of foreign policy.” Ms. Rice also took issue with a recent comment by a Clinton campaign official that Mrs. Clinton was “the face of the administration in foreign affairs.”

“Making tough decisions, responding to crises, making the bureaucracy implement decisions that they may not want to implement — that’s the hard part of foreign policy,” Ms. Rice said. “That’s not what Mrs. Clinton was asked or expected to do as first lady.”

Not Overstepping Her Bounds

Mrs. Clinton said in the interview that she was careful not to overstep her bounds on national security, relying instead on informal access. During the preinaugural transition, for instance, she sat in on some meetings about presidential appointments at the invitation of Warren Christopher, who directed the transition and became secretary of state in the first Clinton term. Participants recalled that she would mostly speak when Mr. Christopher called on her, and tended to make points about placing more women, minority members and allies in key jobs.

She said she did not attend National Security Council meetings, nor did she have a security clearance — though she was briefed on classified intelligence before going on some important diplomatic trips.

“I don’t recall attending anything formal like the National Security Council,” she said, “because I had direct access to all of the principals. I spent a lot of time with the national security adviser, the secretary of state, other officials on the security team for the president. I thought that was both more appropriate, but also more efficient.”

Mrs. Clinton declined to say if she ever read the President’s Daily Brief, a rundown of the latest intelligence and threats to national security provided to the president each day. “I would put that in the category of I-never-talk-about-what-I-talk-to-my-husband-about,” she said. But she indicated, and other administration officials confirmed, that Mr. Clinton would sometimes talk to her about contents of the briefing.

“Let me say generally, I’m very aware of and familiar with what the P.D.B.’s actually are, how they work, what they include,” she said. “And it wasn’t always through the Clinton administration — when I went to Bosnia, for example, I had a full briefing from the military commanders there about what the situation was like.”

Mrs. Clinton said she was “only tangentially involved” in Mr. Clinton’s first major overseas test, whether to send American soldiers after the Somali warlord Mohammed Farah Aidid and his forces, a raid that ended in 18 American deaths. Asked if she had pressed for an invasion, she said she had acted “more as a sounding board” for Mr. Clinton.

The same was true during the military confrontation in Haiti in 1994, over restoring the exiled president, Jean-Bertrand Aristide, which she favored and drew lessons from about joint command of American armed forces.

Asked about her role in Somalia and Haiti, Mr. Christopher said in an interview, “She wasn’t at any of the meetings in the Oval Office or cabinet room, and didn’t take any formal role that I saw.” Mr. Christopher is supporting Mrs. Clinton for president.

Nor was Mrs. Clinton a memorable player on Rwanda. Former White House officials say that no one — not the national security team, not the president, not the first lady — was seriously pushing for American military intervention to stop or slow the unfolding genocide there; the administration’s focus was on confronting the ethnic bloodshed in the Balkans. Mrs. Clinton declined to comment on Rwanda.

A Stand for Women’s Rights

The foreign policy achievement most often credited to Mrs. Clinton came in 1995, with her speech to the United Nations conference on women in Beijing, where she declared that “human rights are women’s rights, and women’s rights are human rights.” She also tangled with Chinese officials, she said, and refused to bow to pressure to soften her remarks.

“She had a good balance of being firm on these issues, even if they clearly covered Chinese sins, but also understanding the need for good relations with China,” said Winston Lord, then the assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, who briefed and accompanied her on the trip.

In visits to Bosnia and Kosovo after the American-led bombing of Serbia, she entered war zones before officials believed it was safe for her husband to go and acted as a spokeswoman for American interests rather than as a negotiator. Mrs. Clinton had become a champion of the bombing campaign, and many officials — including Madeleine K. Albright and Richard Holbrooke in the administration and Tony Blair, then Britain’s prime minister — turned to her at times to stiffen Mr. Clinton’s resolve to take on Serbia.

“Bill, you’re the president,” was a refrain that several administration officials said she used when Mr. Clinton was torn between his advisers.

Mrs. Clinton has disagreed with Mr. Obama’s support for presidential-level talks with leaders of nations like Iran and North Korea, but she said that the Balkans had taught her another lesson: know your enemy. She praised Gen. Wesley K. Clark, then the NATO commander, and Mr. Holbrooke, the administration’s envoy on the Balkans, for socializing and drinking with Serbia’s leader, Slobodan Milosevic, as a means of gauging his strengths.

“He’s there — you don’t learn something about him by pointing at him across the ocean,” she said. “If you do have to engage in a bombing campaign, you’re going to have a much better idea of how much pressure it’s going to take to finally break him.”

Her personal interests also drew her to Northern Ireland, where she believed she could help foster peace as a female leader bringing together women split by the sectarian divide. She played host to a memorable meeting, one of the first of its kind, of Catholic and Protestant women in Belfast. “It gave everybody a safe place to come together and start talking about what they had in common,” Mrs. Clinton said.

As she prepared to run for the Senate, Mrs. Clinton took increasing interest in Israel and Middle East peace, touchstones for Jewish voters, among others, in New York. She was not at the Camp David talks in the summer of 2000, but she did pepper the Middle East peace envoy, Dennis Ross, with questions, like whether the Palestinian leader Yasir Arafat was too much the revolutionary to ever make peace, Mr. Ross recalled.

The Middle East situation led to Mrs. Clinton’s first big foreign policy-related problem as a candidate. In 1999, she sat silently, but with apparent discomfort, through an event on the West Bank as Suha Arafat, the wife of Mr. Arafat, accused Israel of poisoning Palestinian women and children with toxic gases.

Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani of New York, who at that point seemed likely to be her Republican opponent in the 2000 Senate race, sharply criticized Mrs. Clinton for not confronting Mrs. Arafat over her remarks and for kissing her goodbye afterward; the incident also led some Jewish groups to be critical of the first lady.

Mrs. Clinton has often said that she learned from the experience and would not make the same mistake again.

Published in: on December 26, 2007 at 4:10 pm Comments (2)

Winter Break WK #1: “McCain has ‘Joementum’”

Jim Shea
Hartford Courant
December 26, 2007

Turn out the lights, the party’s over.

The Republicans have a presidential candidate.

John McCain has broken loose from the pack and become the man to beat. Just you wait and see.

What has turned things around for old “Walnuts”?

A key endorsement.

No, not the one from the Boston Globe or Des Moines Register. Except for the candidate who receives it, no one pays any attention to a newspaper endorsement.

What we’re talking about here is much more significant. What we are talking about here is the official stamp of approval from Sen. Joe Lieberman.

 

Wow!

Joe traveled up to the American Legion hall in Hillsborough, N.H., on Dec. 17 to tell the country that the next president is going to be the long-shot senator from Arizona, a Republican.

What makes this endorsement especially newsworthy is that – as of this writing – Lieberman is not a Republican. He is still a registered Democrat, although he now calls himself an independent Democrat, which, as a far as anyone can tell, is kind of like being a modern-day Mugwump.

Anyway, all the 200 or so Democratic and Republican presidential candidates have been secretly lusting after Lieberman’s support for months.

Chuck Norris may bring muscle to a campaign, Oprah her star power. But Lieberman offers something other celebrity endorsers can only hope to match: Joementum.

Once you get Joementum working for you, it is all over but ordering the balloons.

Following last week’s endorsement, the political pundits were explaining that Joementum gives McCain a much needed boost among New Hampshire’s independent voters.

See, this is why political pundits get the big money.

A lot of people look at Joe’s record in New Hampshire and conclude that he has about as much influence as Theodore Cleaver.

In 2000, when Joe was Al Gore’s vice presidential running mate, New Hampshire was the only New England state to go for George W. Bush.

And when Joe ran for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2004 – remember when he moved to Manchester? – he came in fifth, with 9 percent of the vote.

Yeah, Joementum sometimes works in mysterious ways.

In his speech endorsing McCain, Joe said:

“You know, political parties are important in our country. But they’re not more important than what’s best for our country. They’re not more important than friendship.”

Of course, this is something Chris Dodd doesn’t get. He backed Joe in the Democratic senatorial primary in 2006, but after Joe lost to Ned Lamont, Dodd backed the party nominee. Joe couldn’t get his head around that.

This is probably why Joe hasn’t gotten behind Dodd’s current bid for the Democratic nomination. (Although you can’t discount Dodd’s Iowa haircut as also being a factor.)

Besides friendship, the other major litmus test for Joe is going to war. This is why it is surprising that Joe didn’t throw his mo to Rudy Giuliani. Giuliani has seemed much more irrational on the subject of attacking other countries than McCain.

I’m sorry, President McCain.

Published in: on at 11:47 am Comments (18)

Winter Break WK #1: “Sharpton’s renaissance”

Rush of candidates seeking activist’s backing reaffirms relevance

Presidential hopeful Barack Obama, left, and the Rev. Al Sharpton make the rounds before a fundraiser in Harlem on Nov. 29. Associated Press (File Associated Press)

Keith B. Richburg
Washington Post
December 26, 2007

NEW YORK – Even by his own frenetic standards, the Rev. Al Sharpton has had a busy 12 months. Late last year was the police shooting in Queens of Sean Bell, an unarmed black man leaving a bachelor party, and Sharpton organized the protests. There was the spring controversy over racially insensitive remarks by Don Imus, with Sharpton leading the calls for Imus’ firing.

Sharpton put together a march in Jena, La., in support of six black teenagers jailed in the beating of a white student, and he held a protest rally outside the Justice Department in Washington to demand more prosecution of hate crimes.

He found time to take on the hip-hop industry for denigrating women and using racial epithets in lyrics. He was in Chicago recently threatening to boycott that city’s bid for the 2016 Summer Olympics unless more is done to stop police brutality.

And now he is being wooed by the leading Democratic presidential candidates, all of whom seek his endorsement. “I think this has been a banner year, to say the least,” said Sharpton. “This year proved the real revival of civil rights activism.”

For Sharpton, the pace of his past year and the pleas for support from presidential aspirants provide the answer to the question some are posing: How does Al Sharpton remain relevant in a Barack Obama world?

 

Obama, a Democratic senator from Illinois, has emerged as the first black politician with a serious chance of capturing his party’s presidential nomination and the White House. And there have been other notable, if quiet, political successes, such as Deval Patrick becoming the first African-American governor of Massachusetts, and David Paterson being elected New York’s first black lieutenant governor.

Those successes have led some to suggest that the country is ready to embrace, in the post-civil rights era, a new kind of black leader, one who transcends race and appeals to as many white voters as black.

Sharpton has “been eclipsed, because Obama puts guys like Sharpton in the shadow,” said Fred Siegel, a historian of New York City at the Cooper Union college in Manhattan. “Suppose Obama is elected president. He’s terrible for Sharpton, because that takes away Sharpton’s job. He’s a kind of racial ambulance chaser. It’s hard to engage in that game if there’s another powerful African-American politician.”

But Sharpton has thrived this year with his high-decibel activism, even in the face of a federal investigation of his 2004 campaign finances. In an interview punctuated by interruptions from his cell phone, he scoffed at the notion that he is being overshadowed or is any less relevant.

“It borders on insulting to say that because some blacks are doing well in politics, we don’t need organizations to protect civil rights,” he said. “The role I play in American life and the role that Deval Patrick and Barack play are two different roles.”

He also calls that view of his diminishing importance a misreading of modern black history. “We’ve always had blacks on the inside and blacks on the outside,” he said. “You always had blacks so-called in the system and blacks outside.”

In New York, his home base, Sharpton remains a polarizing figure for many, best remembered for championing the cause of Tawana Brawley, a black teenager who said she was abducted and raped by six white law enforcement officials but whose claims were later discredited.

In May, Sharpton again showed his penchant for inflammatory statements when he said of Republican presidential hopeful Mitt Romney, “As for the one Mormon running for office, those who really believe in God will defeat him anyways, so don’t worry about that.”

The statement prompted Romney to reply in a television interview: “I can only, hearing that statement, wonder whether there’s not bigotry that still remains in America.”

But Sharpton has survived to become a political power broker of sorts. Once shunned for his street antics, jogging suits and bling, he is now courted by local and state politicians who dutifully troop to the Harlem headquarters of his National Action Network every January for his celebration of the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr.’s birthday.

“He seems to have evolved into a new respectability, at least in the city,” said Norman Siegel, a lawyer and former director of the New York Civil Liberties Union, who has known Sharpton for 20 years. Regarding the King celebrations, Siegel said, “Every single elected official, no matter what they said about him in the past, they’ll show up.”

But Siegel said Sharpton still has a negative reputation among many white New Yorkers; Siegel has acquaintances who ask him, somewhat derisively, whether he is still friends with Al Sharpton.

Nonetheless, Sharpton has managed to maintain his clout even while continuing to face controversy, most recently an FBI and IRS investigation into financial records from Sharpton’s 2004 presidential campaign. Earlier this month, federal agents served early-morning subpoenas on eight of Sharpton’s aides, ordering them to produce records and documents for a Brooklyn grand jury.

Sharpton dismissed this latest probe as government harassment resulting from the protest he led last month outside the Justice Department.As evidence of his continued relevance on the political scene, Sharpton pointed to the presidential candidates chasing his endorsement. He planned to fly to South Carolina earlier this month to meet former President Bill Clinton until his flight was canceled. Last month, he shared a meal with Obama at Sylvia’s, a Harlem soul food restaurant.

“On the one level, they say we don’t matter. On the other level, they want to know who we’re endorsing,” Sharpton said.

Sharpton said he is going to decide among Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York, Obama and former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina. And like much of the black community, he is torn about which way to go.

“I really haven’t decided,” he said.

Published in: on at 11:42 am Comments (3)

Winter Break WK #1: “Campaign threatening GOP solidarity”

Party failing to unify around champion

Michael D. Shear and David S. Broder
Washington Post
December 26, 2007

DES MOINES, Iowa – For three decades, the Republican presidential nominating contest has served to unify the national party’s coalition of social, economic and foreign policy conservatives in advance of a general election fight with Democrats.

This year, it is ripping that coalition apart.

Is the GOP grounded in the social issues embodied by Baptist preacher Mike Huckabee or the foreign policy experience of former POW John McCain? Do Republicans see their futures in a former CEO such as Mitt Romney, who promises to tackle Washington incompetence, or in a leader such as Rudy Giuliani, who talks tough on terrorism and crime? Should the party embrace anger about immigration or optimism about America’s potential?

 

Among members of Congress, the lobbying shops on K Street and the local GOP committees in Iowa and New Hampshire, Republicans are divided, confused and sometimes demoralized about their choices for president. With less than two weeks left before voting begins, the party’s rank and file are being asked to ratify a new direction for the GOP amid the clash of a chaotic and wide-open campaign.

And the party’s soul-searching is unfolding in a sour environment: two states where the GOP was walloped by Democrats in 2006, leaving the surviving Republicans in Iowa and New Hampshire grappling with an identity crisis of their own. In dozens of interviews last week, many Republicans said they are frustrated.

Scott Weiser, who lobbies the Iowa statehouse for the Iowa Motor Truck Association, said he attended a Republican fundraiser recently where all but one of the lobbyists and business executives were still undecided about who they will support in the presidential contest.

“We walked around the room, and there was just one guy who was committed to someone,” said Weiser, who joked that he might go to one of Iowa’s top steakhouses rather than attend the Jan. 3 caucuses. “I have never, ever seen anything like this where at least the pros didn’t know who they were with.”

In New Hampshire, where Republicans took a hit in 2006, GOP state Rep. Fran Wendelboe said she is still looking for someone to support. She is devoting her energy to a local organization – dubbed the “Reagan Network” – meant to be an alternative to the state Republican Party, which she and her allies argue has let the party’s grass roots wither.

“One day, I’m going to vote for one person, and the next day, I’m going to vote for another person,” she explained. “And if that’s what it’s like for a Republican like me – who’s met all these guys, who’s done all the research on these guys – imagine what the average person is going through.

“Republicans,” Wendelboe said, “are all over the place. They’re looking for the perfect candidate but just don’t have it.”

Soul-searching during a presidential campaign is typical for the Democratic Party, which seems to engage in philosophical rethinking every four years. But it is a rarer instance for Republicans, who typically rally around an establishment candidate, a consensus “next-in-line” who would be a shoo-in for the nomination.

That kind of party discipline helped George H.W. Bush win the nomination in 1988, gave a boost to former Kansas Sen. Robert Dole in 1996 and was crucial to George W. Bush’s victory in 2000. But finding a successor to President Bush, and a new direction for the party, is proving to be a more difficult.

“I’m homeless,” said Jack Kemp, a former congressman and housing secretary in President George H.W. Bush’s administration and the party’s vice presidential nominee in 1996. “There isn’t that Reagan sense of optimism, of an inclusionary Republican Party.”

“It’s about as clear as mud,” said Rep. Patrick McHenry, R-N.C., who has talked to Giuliani and has met with Romney and former Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee but remains undecided.

For conservatives, the flaws in each major candidate are just too glaring, GOP lawmakers say.

Giuliani tends to win them on economic issues, but they cannot get by his stand on social issues. They like Huckabee on the social agenda, but do not trust his economic stands. They like the Romney they see now, but they cannot forget the positions he once embraced in Massachusetts. And they dislike McCain’s opposition to Bush’s first-term tax cuts and his crusade to overhaul campaign finance laws.

“Everybody’s looking for Ronald Reagan, and believe me, I knew Ronald Reagan, and he’s not here,” said Rep. Tom Tancredo, R-Colo., who dropped out of the race for the White House on Thursday and gave his support to Romney. “We’re seeing the manifestation of frustrations that have been in the Republican ranks for years. Frustration with the president, frustration with Congress, and nobody sees in us a way out.”

Published in: on at 11:40 am Comments (4)

Winter Break WK #1: “Groups prepare attack ads”

Unions, PACs file spending plans

Matthew Mosk
Washington Post
December 26, 2007

WASHINGTON – The upbeat pre-Christmas tone of the 2008 presidential campaign is about to shift.

While a frenzy of campaign activity in Iowa by labor unions and other special interest groups began earlier this month, with advertising carrying more or less positive messages about the candidates, federal election reports show that several groups not officially affiliated with the contenders are ready to launch attack ads and mailers across the state.

Over the weekend, the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees filed documents with the Federal Election Commission reporting that it will spend $40,755 on a mailing opposing Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill. The AFSCME is one of three major groups that have been active in Iowa promoting the candidacy of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y.

 

Another group, a political action committee called Democratic Courage, run by a supporter of former Sen. John Edwards, D-N.C., has reported that it will spend about $20,000 on a television ad opposing Clinton. Earlier this year, the group announced plans to run “hard-hitting, creative ads in key primary states highlighting why Sen. Clinton should not be the first choice of voters who want to end the war in Iraq, fight global warming, win universal health care – or beat the Republicans.”

The group has also placed a video critical of Obama on its Web site. In that ad, “Santa Barack Obama” is shown delivering lumps of coal to Iowa voters in the form of votes he cast that were opposed by the PAC.

Two conservative groups also got into the act this week, announcing that they will be financing advertising campaigns in the week before the Jan. 3 caucuses.

A political action committee affiliated with Republican Alan Keyes declared its intention to spend $39,000 on phone banks and mailers opposing Clinton. And a PAC called RightMarch.com, which describes itself on its Web site as a conservative group that targets liberal Republicans and Democrats for defeat, reported yesterday that it will spend $16,465 on mail opposing Clinton.

Within 20 days of an election, the FEC requires independent groups to file reports anytime they spend more than $1,000 to either support or oppose a specific candidate.

The only other papers filed with the FEC over the weekend were for mailers promoting Democrat Bill Richardson, the governor of New Mexico. Whether they help Richardson’s campaign, though, will depend on what the Democrats who receive them think of the group that footed the bill: the National Rifle Association.

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Winter Break WK #1: “Striving Valiantly”

By Joe Klein

“It is not the critic who counts: not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood, who strives valiantly, who errs and comes up short again and again … who spends himself in a worthy cause; who, at the best, knows, in the end, the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least he fails while daring greatly.”

Another year gone. Time again for this column–which was inspired by the Theodore Roosevelt quotation cited above–to take note of some of the people who performed honorably as winners and losers in the public arena. A presidential campaign usually isn’t conducive to courage, but, happily, there are honorees on both sides of the aisle this year. Given the lacerating politics of the times, it takes a certain amount of courage to call for sacrifice–a euphemism for higher taxes–but each of the leading Democratic candidates took that risk during the campaign. Hillary Clinton took the additional risk of revisiting the scene of her signal disaster, health-insurance reform, and producing what I thought was the best plan for universal care of any of the candidates.

But there isn’t that much short-term risk in calling for higher taxes (on the wealthy, inevitably) in a Democratic primary. Far riskier–and worthy of a Teddy Award–is telling party loyalists things they don’t want to hear. Two candidates met that test this year. At a moment when other Democrats, like Clinton and Barack Obama, were voting against funding the war in Iraq for political reasons, Joe Biden voted for the funding for the best of all possible reasons: because money was included for bomb-resistant vehicles that will save lives in Iraq. Biden is a long shot, and long shots are expected to be courageous. Obama has been a top-tier candidate from the start, and he wins a Teddy this year for an act of courage that really shouldn’t be: in the mildest possible manner, he told the teachers’ unions, arguably the most powerful Democratic special-interest group, that he disagreed with them on one of their biggest issues–merit pay. He’s for it; they aren’t. As a result, he lost the endorsements of most teachers’ unions, and the army of workers that goes with them.

It isn’t news that John McCain is courageous. It was news last year when he wasn’t courageous, when he tried to be a standard-issue, all-purpose political panderer, nuzzling up to the likes of Jerry Falwell and changing his position on George W. Bush’s irresponsible tax cuts. That didn’t work, in large part because McCain couldn’t bring himself to change his position on an issue that most likely killed his campaign: his support for comprehensive immigration reform, including a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants. That’s wildly unpopular in his party. His opposition to the use of torture, including waterboarding, also dismayed hard-core Republicans at a focus group I attended during one of the debates. McCain gets a Teddy Award with oak-leaf cluster for failing “while daring greatly.” Mike Huckabee gets an honorable mention for standing by his position in favor of scholarships to public colleges for illegal immigrants who do well in high school. “We never should grind our heel in the face of a child” is a sentiment that should go without saying, but needed to be said to his Republican colleagues.

Speaking of Republicans, GOP Senator Charles Grassley of Iowa gets a Teddy this year for crossing over to the House side and lobbying Republican Congressmen to override President Bush’s tawdry veto of a bill to provide health insurance to the children of the working poor. “The House Republican caucus vilified him for that,” said Iowa Democrat Bruce Braley, who tells audiences back home about Grassley’s courage. “But I was proud he came from Iowa.”

Secretary of Defense Robert Gates rates a Teddy for the speed with which his rational professionalism restored morale at the Pentagon after the arrogant, witless reign of Donald Rumsfeld. In a series of smart, consequential speeches, Gates has separated himself from the ill-considered ideological hawkery of the neoconservatives–in one speech, he actually called for an increase in the State Department’s budget, which is the first time I’ve ever heard a SecDef asking for money for diplomats instead of bullets. And finally, I’d like to thank the men and women Gates leads, the members of the U.S. military, especially those I was privileged to meet in places like Baqubah, Yusufia and Baghdad this year. We are honored by your courage, your determination–your all-American informality and good humor–in the ultimate bloody, dust-blasted arena. Please be safe over there, and in Afghanistan, too.

Published in: on December 25, 2007 at 1:25 pm Comments (4)

Winter Break WK #1: “Still waiting for Gore debate”

Cal Thomas
Tribune Media Services
December 25, 2007

You don’t have to be religious to qualify as a fundamentalist. You can be Al Gore, the messiah figure for the global warming cult, whose followers truly believe their gospel of imminent extermination in a Noah-like flood, if we don’t immediately change our carbon polluting ways.

One of the traits of a cult is its refusal to consider any evidence that might disprove the faith. And so it is doubtful the global warming cultists will be moved by 400 scientists, many of whom, according to the Washington Times, “are current or former members of the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that shares the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize with Mr. Gore for publicizing a climate crisis.” In a report by Republican staff of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, these scientists cast doubt on a “scientific consensus” that global warming caused by humans endangers the planet.

Like most cultists, the true believers struck back, not by debating science, but by charging that a small number of the scientists mentioned in the report have taken money from the petroleum industry. A spokeswoman for Al Gore said 25 or 30 of the scientists may have received funding from Exxon Mobile Corp. Exxon Mobile spokesman Gantt H. Walton dismissed the accusation, saying, “the company is concerned about climate-change issues and does not pay scientists to bash global-warming theories.”

The pro-global warming cultists enjoy a huge money advantage. Paleoclimate scientist Bob Carter, who has testified before the Senate Environment and Public Works committee, noted in an EPW report how much money has been spent researching and promoting climate fears and so-called solutions: “In one of the more expensive ironies of history, the expenditure of more than $50 billion (U.S.) on research into global warming since 1990 has failed to demonstrate any human-caused climate trend, let alone a dangerous one,” he wrote on June 18, 2007. The $19 million spent on research that debunks the global warming faith pales in comparison.

Also included in the Republican report are comments by Dutch atmospheric scientist Hendrik Tennekes: “I find the Doomsday picture Al Gore is painting – a 6-meter sea level rise, 15 times the IPCC number — entirely without merit. I protest vigorously the idea that the climate reacts like a home heating system to a changed setting of the thermostat: just turn the dial, and the desired temperature will soon be reached.”

Oklahoma Sen. James M. Inhofe, ranking Republican on the Environment and Public Works Committee, said the report debunks Mr. Gore’s claim that the “debate is over.” In fact, the debate hasn’t even begun because the global warming cultists won’t debate.

Despite numerous challenges, Al Gore has refused to debate the issue with any credible scientist who is a skeptic. Shouldn’t the winner of the Nobel Peace Prize be willing to debate such an important issue? What does he have to fear?

If his theory cannot stand up to scientific inquiry and skepticism, it needs to be exposed as a false religion and himself as a false prophet before he and his followers force us to change the way we live and alter the prosperous society that generations of Americans have built.

Gore and his disciples will still be living in their big houses, driving gas-guzzling cars and flying in private jets that leave carbon footprints as large as Bigfoot’s, while most of us will be forced to drive tiny automobiles and live in huts resembling the Third World. But hypocrisy is just one of many traits displayed by secular fundamentalists like Gore.

Before adopting any faith, the agendas of the people attempting to impose it, along with the beliefs held by them and their disciples, should be considered. Gore and company are big government liberals who think government is the answer to all of our problems, including problems they create. In fact, as Ronald Reagan often said, in too many cases government is the problem.

The secular fundamentalists who believe in Al Gore as a prophet and global warming as a religious doctrine are being challenged by scientists and others who disbelieve and who think we ought to be spending more time on developing new technology and energy sources for the future and not preaching gloom, doom and retreat. Let them debate the issue. If they won’t, we can only conclude that all they are spewing is hot air.

Published in: on at 12:36 pm Comments (12)

Winter Break WK #1: “Time’s choice of Putin prescient”

James Klurfeld
Newsday
December 25, 2007

Listening to Time magazine’s interview with its Person of the Year, Russian President Vladimir Putin, reminds me, in a way, of the old Groucho Marx quip that he wouldn’t want to be in any club that would have him as a member.

Putin was responding to a question about whether Russia would one day want to join the North Atlantic Treaty Alliance. But rather than the self-deprecating humor of the great humorist Marx, Putin’s comments reflected the bitterness and hurt pride that has come to characterize much of Russia’s attitude toward the United States since the fall of communism.

Time’s decision to make Putin its Person of the Year is fascinating. The magazine’s editors make clear that the bestowal of the title is not an honor, just a statement of their judgment of who has had the greatest impact on events in the past year. And the re-emergence of Russia as a major player – and not always a welcome one – on the world stage is a major development, even if its rise hasn’t dominated headlines in the same manner as the war in Iraq or the presidential campaign. In the longer term, Russia’s rise from the shambles of communism could have greater impact on world affairs than even President George W. Bush’s misadventure in Iraq. For better or worse.

Like many people who’ve watched Russia throw off the shackles of the inept and, yes, evil communist system only to return to an authoritarian mode under Putin, I’ve been concerned about the direction of this huge, nuclear-armed country.

The crackdown on freedoms, including press freedom, the dominance of Putin’s party, the widespread corruption – all smack of an earlier time in Russia. No, we are not going back to the Cold War, but the short period of real cooperation with Russia that marked the early 1990s is well in the past.

More than anything, Putin wants Russia to be a strong, independent force in world affairs. He clearly resents the way the West, notably the United States, has treated Russia, especially with the expansion of NATO to its borders.

Just coincidentally, I had dinner this week with a businessman friend who has traveled in Russia frequently over the years. I expressed my concern at Putin’s authoritarian ways and his determination to hold on to power, as prime minister, once he leaves the presidency. My friend was less concerned. He believes, first of all, it’s important that Russia be a stable country. Putin’s authoritarian ways and the skyrocketing price of oil – Russia is the world’s second largest supplier after Saudi Arabia – have helped Russia stabilize from the disastrous years following the collapse of communism. The suffering then was real and widespread and potentially dangerous.

“You could just see that they were doing it wrong – the idea of some Western economists that if you just let the market work by itself, everything would be taken care of,” said my friend. “It just isn’t that simple. The Russians have to find their own way of building a market economy and governing themselves. It is going to take a long time.”

Even Mikhail Gorbachev, the seminal figure in bringing the old system down with his policies of glasnost (openness) and perestroika (restructuring), acknowledges that Putin had to bring a sense of order to the country or there was a possibility of total chaos. In the Time interview, Putin gives Gorbachev credit for facing the reality that the communist system didn’t work.

There’s plenty of reason to be worried about Putin’s authoritarian ways and his plan to hold on to power. Is he the new czar, as Time says on its cover? When Boris Yeltsin followed the Russian constitution to give up power and stepped off the stage, it was hoped that would represent a new tradition in Russian political history. Putin seems to be following an older model.

But, as my friend suggests, we’re watching a long and difficult process in Russia. Our presidential candidates have all but ignored that country so far, but how to deal with it intelligently needs to be a topic in our national debate.

Published in: on at 12:35 pm Comments (2)

Winter Break WK #1: “Politics – An Assortment of Things”

By Jay Newton-Small

ELECTORAL EXPLAINER

Frigid temperatures, college-football bowl games, post-New Year’s Eve lethargy–the Iowa caucuses have a lot going against them this election cycle. Still, despite months of electoral-calendar one-upmanship, the Hawkeye State held onto its status as the nation’s first presidential matchup by moving its caucuses from Jan. 14 to Jan. 3. The Iowa contests first achieved national prominence in 1972 and ‘76. Since then, they have provided momentum to many a trailing candidate while halting the progress of more than a few presumed front runners.

 How They Work – The Iowa Caucuses

Despite the state’s reputation as a hotbed of local political participation, only about 200,000 Iowans (6-7% of the state’s population) normally participate in the caucuses. They gather in school auditoriums, churches and homes to publicly hash out their picks.

The Republican caucuses are straightforward: the candidate who receives the majority vote in each precinct wins all of that precinct’s delegates.

The Democratic process is more complicated. Caucus attendees gather in separate parts of the room in candidate “preference groups.” Any group with less than 15% of the total participants is deemed “nonviable.”

A “realignment” process follows, during which those in “nonviable” groups abandon their candidate for another or try to cajole others to join them (thereby bringing them to 15%).

Once each remaining group has 15% or more of the participants, a complicated formula is used to determine how many delegates each candidate receives.

1972 Despite coming in second to Ed Muskie, Senator George McGovern used a solid Iowa showing to eventually win the Democratic nomination.

1976 “Uncommitted” beat Jimmy Carter by 10 points. Nonetheless, intense campaigning in Iowa put the former unknown on the road to the White House.

1992 Democrats declined to campaign against Iowa Senator Tom Harkin, who handily won his state but later became one of the first candidates to drop out.

2004 Front runner Howard Dean entered Iowa with an aura of inevitability. Then came third place, the “Dean Scream” and, well … you remember the rest.

Campaign Insider. From Coach K and Green Bay to the Obama campaign

The love who spends each day by Barack Obama’s side, attending to his every need, isn’t his wife Michelle. It’s Reggie Love, a 6-ft. 4-in. former Duke basketball and pro-football player who has worked with Obama for the past two years, first as a staff assistant and now as his personal aide.

Love, 25, starts most days at 6 a.m., working out in the gym with the Illinois Senator. He shadows Obama through a grueling schedule of campaign events, fund raisers and policy meetings, keeping the candidate fueled and on time. “Anything that comes up, you’ve just got to deal with,” says Love. “There isn’t a real good job description.”

He played football and basketball at Duke and graduated with degrees in political science and public policy after a brief stint as a wide receiver for the Green Bay Packers. While waiting to start a training program for Goldman Sachs, Love looked around Washington for an unpaid internship and ended up with the job as Obama’s assistant.

Out on the campaign trail, Obama and Love sometimes challenge local police or fire departments to pickup games. In a game they played in early July, the two were on opposing teams, and Obama’s team won. “For two weeks,” says Love, “they were all like, ‘I thought you played at Duke. I thought you had game.’” At their next game, in Sioux City, Iowa, Love stopped holding back, vowing “Never again.”

GOD-O-METER

X-mas (Air) Time

‘Tis the season for religious political ads. Conservative Evangelicals are a house divided when it comes to supporting a GOP candidate, but Mike Huckabee continues his efforts to win them over. In a new TV spot, the pastor candidate claims to put politics aside in the spirit of the holiday, announcing “What really matters is the celebration of the birth of Christ.” His campaign insists X-mas isn’t an event to spin, but with a tree in the background–and a cross, formed by the intersection of shelves–Huckabee is positioning himself as the friendly, faithful candidate, vs. Mitt Romney and his attack ads.

For daily God-o-Meter readings covering all the presidential candidates, visit beliefnet.com

[SECULARIST=1]

[THEOCRAT=10]

Huckabee’s Score:   9

Winter Break WK #1: “Obama speech electrifies”

David S. Broder
The Washington Post
December 23, 2007

MANCHESTER, N.H. – Barack Obama has become a one-trick pony. But what a trick it is!

The stump speech he has developed in the closing stages of the pre-Christmas campaign is a thing of beauty, a 40-minute oration delivered without notes that is powering his gains in the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 3 and the first primary here in New Hampshire five days later.

Hillary Clinton has nothing to match it. John Edwards has periodic bursts of eloquence. But Obama has reached the point of being able to deliver the speech on demand, and to reach audiences with assured effect.

It has become his security blanket.

The speech was introduced at the Jefferson-Jackson dinner in Des Moines more than a month ago, when Obama was still struggling for leverage against Clinton and Edwards in Iowa. It drew rave reviews from that big audience and from Des Moines Register columnist David Yepsen, and Obama knew he had a winner.

He gave it again to the Democratic National Committee at its candidate forum in northern Virginia, and won accolades. So he gave it four more times, when he toured with Oprah Winfrey through Des Moines, Cedar Rapids, Manchester and Columbia, S.C., thrilling about 60,000 people at the four venues.

He has now delivered it in small towns all over Iowa, and here in New Hampshire, he did it six more times in two days last week.

It is a helluva speech. Like some Beethoven symphonies, it starts on a rather calm and even lighthearted note. He hits an early applause line by reminding audiences that next year, “George Bush’s name will not be on the ballot.” Democrats cheer the prospective departure of the man they despise.

And then Obama jokes, “Neither will my cousin, Dick Cheney. What an embarrassment to discover he was part of the family.”

He segues to a standard riff about the importance of the coming election, quickly converting it into a pointed attack on Hillary Clinton, although he does not name her. Given the stakes, he says, it is not enough just to change parties or presidents in this election. “We have to change politics. The same old games won’t do; triangulating and trimming won’t do.”

Then Obama pays his respect to Edwards-style populism, ragging on a Washington where health care and energy legislation have been stymied for years by corporate lobbyists – none of whom, he promises, will get the time of day from an Obama administration.

Then he touches the erogenous zones of various Democratic constituencies, promising labor to raise the minimum wage each and every year; promising teachers generous salaries; and promising college students new help in paying tuition.

And finally, comes the peroration, quoting Martin Luther King Jr. on the “fierce urgency of now,” in explaining why he can’t patiently wait his turn to run for president. It’s a bit of a reach because he wants to draw another contrast with Hillary. Unlike others, he says, he has not planned to run for years and he does not regard the presidency as his entitlement.

The closing anecdote is based on an incident at a rally in Greenwood, S.C., where, on a miserable morning, with a meager crowd, a single black woman in the audience first revived Obama’s spirit by shouting out encouragement, and then got everyone chanting, responsively, “Fired up!”

“Ready to go!”

As he tells the familiar story, Obama segues from a conversational tone to a shout, and explains that the chant has now become his trademark and slogan. So, he tells his listeners, “I’ve got one thing to ask you. Are you FIRED UP? Are you READY TO GO? FIRED UP! READY TO GO!”

And then, as the shouting becomes almost too loud to bear, he adds the five words that capsulize his whole message and sends the voters scrambling back into their winter coats and streaming out the door: “Let’s go change the world,” Obama says. And it sounds as if he means it.

In every audience I have seen, there is a jolt of pure electric energy at those closing words. Tears stain some cheeks – and some people look a little thunderstruck.

Published in: on December 23, 2007 at 10:58 am Comments (17)

Winter Break WK #1: “Next president needs to be science-savvy”

Lawrence Krauss and Chris Mooney
December 23, 2007

Whether the issue is global warming, embryonic stem-cell research, ballistic missile defense or the future of the world’s oceans, the same bass line thumps in the background: Sound political decision-making relies, more than ever before, on accurate scientific information.

As advances in science and technology continually transform our world, policymaking will inevitably depend more and more on accurate scientific and technical information. Which means that in order to be a successful world leader today, a politician must have an effective means of accessing and applying the latest science.

This fact – combined with the undisputed importance of scientific research and innovation to national prosperity and competitiveness – explains the recent emergence of a group called ScienceDebate2008. Under its auspices, scientists, university presidents, industry leaders, elected representatives and others have endorsed a call for the current U.S. presidential candidates to participate in a debate, or a series of debates, dedicated to issues in science and technology. More specifically, the candidates should answer questions about the environment, medicine and health, and science and technology policy.

Among those who have endorsed this appeal so far are 11 Nobel laureates (including former California Institute of Technology President David Baltimore and former National Institutes of Health Director Harold Varmus), former presidential science advisers John Gibbons and Neal Lane, Princeton University President Shirley Tilghman, retired Martin Marietta Chief Executive Norm Augustine, present and former presidents of the American Association for the Advancement of Science and more than 50 others.

When you think about it, the need for a debate on science is incontrovertible. It would reveal which candidates are best equipped to tackle contentious science-based issues and it would help raise the level of scientific literacy across the board in this country.

A recent National Academy of Sciences’ report, “Rising Above the Gathering Storm,” suggests that the United States may soon falter in the global economy without a concerted effort to ensure continuing technological innovation and competitiveness.

Today, South Korea, Singapore and China are producing a far higher percentage of science and engineering graduates than the United States. As Bill Gates has put it, “When I compare our high schools with what I see when I’m traveling abroad, I am terrified for our workforce of tomorrow.”

Test results released last week by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development reinforce the concern: U.S. students performed below the average of 30 countries in science and well below the average in math.

These dismaying facts present a fundamental challenge to our nation’s future, one that our next president must have a plan for overcoming.

In fact, it’s not going too far to say that science in its broadest sense – by which we mean “scientific thinking” – is crucial in every area of policymaking. Science requires a willingness to reject conclusions once they’re shown to be in error and it demands that all the data be considered, not just that which agrees with a priori opinions. A president capable of assessing scientific issues by weighing competing positions and evaluating the evidence supporting them could be expected to carry the same mode of reasoning into other policy arenas where it’s equally crucial.

That’s why we need to hear from all of the candidates about where they stand on specific science-related issues, on U.S. competitiveness and, finally, on the broad role of science in the policymaking process.

Our next president needn’t be a memorizer of facts, but he or she most definitely should understand how to critically analyze data and should embrace a broad empiricism in national and world affairs.

We’ve seen science form the basis of some of the thorniest public policy issues in recent history, from the fate of Terri Schiavo to the fate of evolution in schools and the fate of the Earth. A presidential debate on science would help voters determine who among the candidates is up to the task of dealing with whatever comes next.

Published in: on at 10:56 am Comments (16)

Winter Break WK #1: “First Tuesday of Huh?”

 

Every four years Americans select a president. Given our crazy system, it’s a miracle that we manage to seal the deal.

By Anna Quindlen

NEWSWEEK

Updated: 2:13 PM ET Dec 15, 2007

Every once in a while you see a Frankenstein monster of a house on a suburban street. The original structure might have a bumped-out second story too heavy for its foundation, an addition that looks tacked on, a sunroom around back meant for a different place entirely. And that’s before you even get to the gazebo. From a commonsense standpoint, the whole thing is a mess.

That’s the equivalent of the American election system, at least if you added a couple of cars on cinder blocks in the side yard. Piecemail, arbitrary, even downright wacky, turning the nation’s most important task into a jerry-built mess. The first time Mao met Nixon, the Chinese leader said he’d voted for him. The way we pick a president is so random the big guy might almost have been believed.

The official season kicks off with a rite so arcane that even many of those participating don’t understand it. The Iowa caucuses are like evening coffee klatsches with a serving of trigonometry. Those who show up at one of the state’s 1,784 precincts huddle in various corners of the room depending on whom they’re supporting. Then the folks in each “preference group” are counted and the math begins: multiplying that number by the number of delegates allotted to a precinct, then dividing by the number attending the caucus. Or at least I think that’s right. Even veterans admit confusion, and tutorials are routinely offered. Keep that in mind when you hear the deceptively straightforward news that a candidate won in Iowa.

Caucus participants like to talk about how it’s participatory democracy at its grittiest, but they represent a very small sliver of voters, since lots of people don’t have the time, the patience or perhaps the computational skills to participate. In 2004 about 125,000 Iowans took part, and naysayers complained that that wasn’t representative of Iowa, and Iowa wasn’t representative of America. Ditto New Hampshire, whose primary follows and which, like Iowa, is not particularly representative of a new, more polyglot America. A former speechwriter for Dick Gephardt, whose presidential ambitions once turned to dust in these early contests, wrote of the aftermath, “One-half of one per cent of the nation’s Democrats will have decisively shaped the race.”

That speechwriter, Matthew Dallek, proposed a national primary or a series of regional primaries instead. It’s a notion that dovetails nicely with the hobbyhorse of a professor of political science at NYU, Steven Brams, who has long promoted a method called approval voting. This might be his year, since on both sides of the political spectrum many voters seem to be persuaded—or unpersuaded—by more than one candidate. Approval voting would let them reflect that on their ballots, choosing any and all of those they would find acceptable. Torn between Huckabee and Romney, Clinton and Obama? Approval voting would allow you to put a check next to both names. Brams argues that this would elect the candidate most acceptable to the largest number of voters, instead of the one beloved by one segment and despised by another. It would also allow special-interest voters to have it both ways, since they could cast a statement vote for a third-party candidate as well as a strategic vote for a front runner. So far, approval voting is used mainly to elect the officers of such organizations as the Mathematical Association of America, and Brams admits he has an uphill slog: “Politicians are risk-averse.”

How else to explain their continued allegiance—or inertia—in the face of our quaint 19th-century election customs? Oregon and Washington were free-thinking enough to institute voting by mail, and Texas and Georgia allow ballots to be cast in advance of Election Day at polling places. But most other states still require voters to show up in person on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November. Why? The fall harvest, silly. The beginning of November was when the crops were in but roads were still passable, and Tuesday gave those coming in buggies from outlying towns plenty of time to attend church on Sunday before their departure. Which means that today Tuesday voting makes even less sense than Daylight Saving Time.

And, of course, in the non-sense department there is the Electoral College, which provided a handy civics lesson in 2000 about how little an individual vote really matters in our winner-take-all system. Once you make it past Iowa and New Hampshire, you can win and still lose, as Al Gore did when he carried the popular vote but fewer states overall than his opponent. Opposition to the Electoral College is not new—Jefferson once called it “the most dangerous blot on our Constitution”—and it’s one area in which real change is percolating. A new legislative plan in some states that would throw their electoral votes to whoever wins the popular vote would essentially negate it.

That would make perfect sense. So would an overhaul of much of the rest of the system. There could be regional or state primaries that would allow voters to choose as many candidates as they wish. Two or three contenders from each party would prevail and go on to the conventions, which would be real conventions again, not four-day commercials for family values and balloon manufacturers. And finally there would be a president, chosen by voters mailing in their ballots in a timely fashion. The house would be all of a piece. As the playwright Tom Stoppard once wrote, “It’s not the voting that’s democracy, it’s the counting.”

Published in: on December 22, 2007 at 10:01 pm Comments (1)

Winter Break WK #1: “Media making campaign silly”

Kathleen Parker
The Orlando Sentinel
December 22, 2007

Floating crosses, love babies and hag photos. We’re all tabloid now.

Two weeks before the Iowa caucuses, politics has gotten not just ugly but unseemly and cruel. If the human appetite for scandal and schadenfreude is satiable, the media haven’t gotten the word.

Besides, in a dangerous world of war and terrorism, it’s far easier to speculate on sex lives and sensationalize religious belief than it is to evaluate whether jihad is coming to El Paso.

This isn’t to blame American voters, but rather the media. Human beings will always look at a roadside accident, but that doesn’t mean they want the accident to occur. We’re a curious lot and most will look at what’s in front of us (the proof is in the porn stats).

 

Thus, who puts the thing up for observation is the proper target of our attentions. Calling Katie Couric.

Wednesday night, “CBS Evening News” anchor Couric asked the leading 2008 presidential candidates whether voters should trust an adulterer. Why not just ask for a show of hands: How many of you have messed around on your spouse?

Couric’s inquisition closely shadowed the tabloid gossip item that John Edwards has a “love baby” with a former campaign worker. Edwards has denied the accusation, as has the mother-to-be, who has named the person she says is the real father. But no matter.

Splash! It’s out there. The suggestion, the innuendo, the lingering question. Just as “someone” hoped, no doubt.

Not so long ago, no reputable news organization would touch a tabloid headline. Now, thanks to the Internet, what’s out is out and the source seems not to matter. Mainstream media now feel compelled to report what’s being reported. (Response to pot-kettle monitors: Cultural commentary requires cultural commentary.)

A few days before Edwards made news, Mike Huckabee’s “floating cross” was all the talk.

One of Huckabee’s ads shows him in front of a bookcase. The intersection of two shelves creates four contiguous right angles, suggestive of a cross, as intersecting shelves are wont to do.

Whether the positioning was intentional or just a divine coincidence is anyone’s guess. But the debate, far longer than warranted, was the stuff of alien-seeking tabloids. Is it just me, or was that the Virgin Mary’s face imprinted in the wood grain?

Gratuitously cruel was a photograph of a tired-looking Hillary Clinton posted on the Drudge Report and elaborated on by Rush Limbaugh. The photograph was apropos of nothing – no story was linked – and merely ran with the caption: “The Toll of a Campaign.”

Hillary, who is 60, showed a few wrinkles, which is not unusual among men and women of that age. Apparently, both Drudge and Limbaugh were gleefully surprised to discover that Hillary is showing signs of maturity that would be characterized as character on a man’s face.

Limbaugh framed his remarks as anthropological observation: “Will this country want to actually watch a woman get older before their eyes on a daily basis?”

Can a woman ever get it right? Too much cleavage one day, too many wrinkles the next. A male friend forwarded the picture to me and I replied:

“This picture makes me like her more.” My bet is thousands of others felt the same way.

Why? Because we’re all aging women, that’s why. We’re all at war with time. And with calories, one can’t help noticing. The seven deadly sins are alive and well in America’s garden, for both women and men.

At the risk of sounding like a Christian panderer, we are all fallen.

Perhaps that is why the candidates, when asked about adultery, unanimously said that while important, carnal imperfection doesn’t necessarily disqualify someone from being president.

As Barack Obama noted: “Some of our greatest presidents haven’t always been terrific husbands.”

The indignity of the question should embarrass the interviewer, though nothing seems to embarrass anyone anymore. The uglier the stories, the stronger the backlash – and the mudslide has just begun.

If private lives are no longer private – and a woman can’t frown in the winter wind – then we can give up on leadership. Only the perfect need apply and the perfect, having made no mistakes, haven’t learned anything.

Our jihadist observers – who, incidentally, kill adulterers, take religious belief very seriously, and think women shouldn’t vote – have learned much.

Such silly people, Americans. Such simple targets.

Such serious business, this election.

Published in: on at 9:52 am Comments (2)

Winter Break WK #1: “So many reasons to vote”

 

Jim Shea
December 22, 2007

I’m voting for Barack Obama because Oprah is supporting Barack Obama and if Oprah thinks Barack Obama will make a good president, well, that’s good enough for me. Outside of James Frey, Oprah never steers you wrong. Plus, Oprah seems like a real nice person, and is very generous, and she has a good sense of humor. Another thing I like about Oprah is that she is really good at dieting.

I’m voting for Hillary Clinton because Babs (Barbara Streisand) is supporting Hillary Clinton, and I agree that “People who need people are the luckiest people in the world.” The other reason I am influenced by Babs is that she still has her original nose, which in a place like Hollywood says something about you.

 

I’m voting for Mitt Romney because JFK is supporting Mitt Romney (in spirit). Mitt Romney (a Mormon) and JFK (a Catholic) both had to talk about their religious views while seeking the presidency. JFK had to convince religious extremists that religion had no place in government, while Romney had to convince religious extremists that he was a religious extremist just like them.

I’m voting for Mike Huckabee because Chuck Norris is supporting Mike Huckabee. Chuck Norris says Mike Huckabee is Chuck Norris approved. Mike Huckabee says Chuck Norris doesn’t endorse, he tells America how it’s going to be. That’s good enough for me.

I am voting for John McCain because Curt Schilling is supporting John McCain. Normally, I don’t pay any attention to anything Curt Schilling says away from baseball because he is basically an idiot. But because the Red Sox just won the World Series and I’m a huge Red Sox fan, I’m voting for John McCain because Curt Schilling is a big-game pitcher.

I’m voting for Fred Thompson because Arthur Branch is supporting Fred Thompson. Arthur Branch is not as big a celebrity as Chuck Norris or Babs, but he is one of the most well-respected district attorneys in the country. Arthur Branch is also very smart and a good political infighter, which is what this country needs to break the partisan deadlock in Washington.

I am voting for Rudy Giuliani because Pat Robertson is supporting Rudy Giuliani, and Pat Robertson claims he can leg press 2,000 pounds. To put that in perspective, Robertson was 76 when he says he leg pressed a ton; the leg-press record at Florida State University is 1,335 pounds, and to get 2,000 pounds on a leg-press machine you have to stack 22 45-pound plates and one 10-pounder on each side.

I am voting for John Edwards because James Denton, the actor who plays Mike Delfino, is supporting John Edwards. Mike Delfino is the plumber on “Desperate Housewives,” and I have always found plumbers to be good judges of people, especially when they are figuring out what to charge you.

I am voting for Dennis Kucinich because Sean Penn is supporting Dennis Kucinich. I would be more enthusiastic about Kucinich if Captain Kirk was supporting him because of the UFO stuff, but Penn is pretty far out there himself.

I am voting for Chris Dodd because Paul Simon is supporting Chris Dodd. If Paul Simon were not supporting Chris Dodd, then I would not be supporting him because he has abandoned Connecticut for Iowa and gotten this brutal haircut that makes him look like he’s running for president of the Des Moines Chamber of Commerce.

Published in: on at 9:48 am Comments (3)

Winter Break WK #1: “$20 million ferry to nowhere among 11,000 earmarks in bill”

‘Bipartisan affliction’

Some earmarks in the spending bill approved by Congress:

• $100,000 for streetscaping, signage in L. A. Fashion District.

• At least six earmarks totaling $10.4 million for ProLogic, a West Virginia company under federal investigation.

• $126,000 for National First Ladies’ Library in Canton, Ohio.

• $250,000 for construction at the Walter Clore Wine and Culinary Center in Prosser, Wash.

SOURCE: Taxpayers for Common Sense

Elizabeth Williamson
Washington Post
December 21, 2007

WASHINGTON – Twice in the past two years, Alaska lawmakers lost congressional earmarks to build two “bridges to nowhere” costing hundreds of millions of dollars after Congress was embarrassed by public complaints over the pet projects hidden in annual spending bills.

This year, Alaska Republicans Rep. Don Young and Sen. Ted Stevens found another way to move cash to their state: Stevens secured more than $20 million for an “expeditionary craft” that will connect Anchorage with the windblown rural peninsula of Matanuska-Susitna Borough.

Now what Alaska has, budget watchdogs contend, is a ferry to nowhere.

“Earmarks are a bipartisan affliction,” said Steve Ellis, vice president of Taxpayers for Common Sense, a nonpartisan budget watchdog that tracks the projects. “It would take leadership in both parties – and a lot more shame – to ever rein them in.”

The $555 billion annual omnibus spending bill approved by Congress this week and the $459 billion defense bill passed last month collectively contain more than 11,000 earmarks, despite Democrats’ vow to use their first year in the majority to slash the number of such pet projects.

The earmark tally did come down, budget watchdogs said, but the audacity of the requests is little reduced. Among routine requests for roads and dams, Taxpayers for Common Sense found $100,000 for signage in Los Angeles’ fashion district, $9 million for “rural domestic preparedness” in Kentucky and $250,000 for a wine and culinary center in Prosser, Wash.

President Bush on Thursday threatened to cancel thousands of the special projects, saying he has ordered White House budget director Jim Nussle to determine the extent of the president’s authority to respond to what he called “wasteful spending” in the mammoth appropriations bill. Aides said that could include simply disregarding earmarks that were not included in binding legislative language.

Earmarks are a crucial way that lawmakers channel money back home for projects from community centers to water-treatment plants. Most members of Congress boast to constituents of their success in winning funding and say they know better than federal agencies what their districts need. A spokesman for Young said the Alaska ferry, for example, would drastically shorten the commute from the borough to Anchorage.

But over decades, earmarks have become a magnet for some questionable spending requests, and the sheer number has given them a bad name.

The practice reached a high-water mark in 2005, the year of the first “bridge to nowhere” project, which would have linked Ketchikan, on a southeastern Alaska island, to its airport on a nearby island.

Nussle, a former representative from Iowa who chaired the House Budget Committee, said the earmark explosion badly dented Republicans’ and Bush’s reputations among fiscal conservatives.

“When I was budget chairman … we always held the top line. But what got us in trouble, I feel, are the earmarks,” Nussle said in an interview. “People would come up to me at a town meeting, (and) they all want to know: `How did you have money for this bridge or this rain forest or this cowgirl museum?’ ”

All told, this year’s spending bills contain about 25 percent fewer earmarks than the 2006 appropriations, according to a tally by Citizens Against Government Waste. But this year, lawmakers generally did not count earmarks in bills composed almost solely of regional projects, such as the annual military construction bill.

Trimming earmarks by changing their definition “is like saying you’re meeting your weight-loss goal by not counting your backside,” Ellis said. “They’ve taken a step in the right direction, but if all we did was recalibrate the baseline and earmarks start their growth again, we haven’t accomplished much.”

The House required lawmakers for the first time to sign their names to earmarks, identify the beneficiaries and locations, and certify that neither they nor their immediate families had a financial stake in the spending. But Democrats’ good intentions came undone in the Senate, which failed to trim earmarks as severely and tinkered with the language of the rules, limiting disclosure to only their authors’ names, Ellis said.

There are few signs so far that disclosure rules dissuade lawmakers from sponsoring earmarks, watchdogs said. They have only made them easier to trace.

The Taxpayers for Common Sense audit turned up, for example, that a handful of lawmakers continued this year to sponsor earmarks worth more than $10 million for ProLogic Inc., a West Virginia company under federal investigation for its role in receiving earmarked money.

The omnibus provides $126,000 for the National First Ladies’ Library in Canton, Ohio, a favorite cause of the earmark’s sponsor, Republican Rep. Ralph Regula, whose wife founded the museum and whose daughter runs it. Regula has requested hundreds of thousands of federal dollars for the museum since 1991, when he persuaded the National Park Service to pay $1.1 million for its headquarters – the girlhood home of Ida Saxton McKinley, the 25th first lady.

“Both Republicans and Democrats in Congress have teamed up to waste taxpayer dollars on silly pork projects and egotistical projects named after themselves,” said Brian Riedl, senior budget analyst at the conservative Heritage Foundation think tank.

The Alaska ferry project is one of the more expensive earmarks. Billed in Stevens’ version of the legislation as an “expeditionary craft” to be used by the military, it is considered a passenger ferry by Young, according to his spokeswoman Stevens put the earmark that funded the ferry into the defense appropriations bill, which Bush signed last month.

Young’s son-in-law owns land in Matanuska-Susitna Borough, a remote region two hours by car from Anchorage. A ferry would shorten that commute to 15 minutes, making the borough valuable for housing development.

Spokesman Meredith Kenny confirmed the Young family connection to the land. “Many Alaskans own land there,” she said.

“They’ve been working on this since the mid-1990s,” she said of the ferry project. “It’s bipartisan, well-wanted and needed.”

Published in: on December 21, 2007 at 9:07 pm Comments (2)

CE Week #16: “Iowa Poll Spotlights Importance Of Turnout”


Obama and Clinton Lead the Democrats
By Dan Balz and Jon Cohen
Washington Post Staff Writers
Wednesday, December 19, 2007; A01

Sens. Barack Obama of Illinois and Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York remain deadlocked in Iowa, with former senator John Edwards of North Carolina trailing, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll that underscores the importance of the massive efforts the Democratic candidates have set in motion to turn out supporters on Jan. 3.

In a race that could hinge on a campaign’s ability to motivate voters to brave wintry conditions and spend hours attending caucuses, each of the leading contenders appears to enjoy distinct advantages. More of Obama’s backers said they are certain to participate than did those who have gotten behind Clinton. But Clinton’s supporters are the most committed and enthusiastic, and Edwards counts among his supporters experienced caucus attendees who are more likely to turn out again.

Enthusiasm for a candidate and familiarity with the process are critical components in the caucuses, in which voting takes place in public after speeches on behalf of each of the candidates, and complex rules dictate the allocation of delegates.

The three front-runners are pouring resources into the state, viewing the caucuses as potentially decisive in the battle for the Democratic nomination.

Obama has gained ground on Clinton on the question of which Democrat is seen as most electable in November 2008, which had been one of her early calling cards in wooing voters. Clinton retains a significant advantage as the candidate with the best experience to be president.

Overall, 33 percent of likely caucusgoers support Obama, 29 percent Clinton and 20 percent Edwards. A month ago, four percentage points also separated Obama and Clinton at the top (30 percent to 26 percent).

The other Democrats campaigning actively in Iowa remain far behind. New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson registered 8 percent in the new poll, Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware 4 percent and Sen. Christopher J. Dodd of Connecticut 1 percent.

Iowa’s caucuses put a premium on organization, and all the campaigns are engaged in unprecedented efforts to identify supporters and get them to one of the 1,781 precinct caucuses.

Here the poll offers good news for each of the leading candidates. More than seven in 10 of Obama’s supporters said they are certain to participate in the caucuses, compared with 59 percent of Clinton’s backers.

Clinton’s supporters, however, are the most firmly behind her. Seventy percent said they will definitely caucus for her in two weeks, while Edwards’s and Obama’s supporters were more apt to say there is a good chance they might change their minds. Moreover, 59 percent of Clinton’s backers said they are very enthusiastic about supporting her, compared with 49 percent of Obama’s supporters.

Solid support for both Clinton and Edwards rose over the past month, while Obama’s remained stable. The level of excitement among Clinton’s and Edwards’s supporters also increased in that time, but did not change among Obama’s.

Adding to the challenge for Clinton and Obama is that they are relying more heavily than Edwards on potential first-time caucus participants. More than half the supporters of Clinton and Obama have never caucused, while two-thirds of Edwards’s backers have done so. Edwards is hoping to draw on the network he built in Iowa four years ago when he finished second to Sen. John F. Kerry, the eventual Democratic nominee.

Considering other turnout factors brings no additional clarity. Age and education are two key predictors of caucus participation, with older and more highly educated people disproportionately showing up to vote. While Clinton outpaces Obama among older voters, particularly those aged 65 and up, Obama outperforms her nearly 3 to 1 among those with an education of a college degree or more.

Obama nearly doubles up his competitors among those under age 40 and has made a sizable effort to recruit college students and even some high school students. But they have been far less reliable caucus attendees in the past.

Men favor Obama over Clinton and Edwards in the new poll by double-digit margins, while women divide about evenly between Clinton (36 percent) and Obama (32 percent). In the latest Post-ABC national poll, Clinton had a 39-point advantage among women, and she had a 12-point edge with women in the recent Post-ABC New Hampshire survey.

The most important fault line in the electorate continues to be between those who prize fresh ideas and a change in direction, versus those who say strength and experience are more important factors.

By a margin of 56 percent to 33 percent, caucusgoers give a higher priority to new ideas and a new direction. In that group, Obama has a clear advantage — with 50 percent supporting him to 23 percent for Edwards and 15 percent for Clinton.

By contrast, Clinton has a wide lead among those more concerned about experience. Forty-nine percent of these voters favor her candidacy, to 15 percent for Edwards, 13 percent for Richardson and 8 percent for Obama. Clinton’s support in this group jumped 11 points over the past month.

On the question of who is most electable in 2008’s general election, the gap between Clinton and Obama largely disappeared over the past month. In November, Clinton had a 14-point advantage on electability; the two top candidates now run about even.

Clinton does have a whopping lead on experience; 45 percent cited her as the one with the best r¿sum¿. Edwards, Richardson, Biden and Obama are well back. On a separate question, 61 percent of those surveyed said Obama has the experience to serve effectively as president. But potentially worrisome for him is that voters 55 and older are evenly split, with 48 percent saying he has the requisite experience and 47 percent saying he does not.

Clinton also leads on the question of which candidate is the strongest leader, although not by the overwhelming margin she enjoys on the measure in national polling.

Obama’s biggest advantage over the other candidates came on the question of who is the most honest. But Clinton has made gains on trustworthiness: Fifty-nine percent of those surveyed said she is willing enough to speak her mind on the issues, up nine points from a month ago. Obama has a narrow lead as the candidate who “best understands the problems of people like you.”

The poll showed a slight shift in the priorities of Iowa voters. Health care topped Iraq as the most important issue, although the two remain voters’ central concerns in the election.

Clinton is seen as best able to deal with health care by almost 2 to 1 over Obama and Edwards. She enjoys a smaller advantage on who can best deal with the economy. On Iraq, she and Obama were essentially even; on this issue, Obama has improved 11 percentage points from the summer.

Because of the rules for Iowa’s Democratic caucuses, voters’ second choices can affect the results in many precincts. When the votes for other candidates were reallocated on the basis of second choices, Obama led with 37 percent to Clinton’s 31 percent and Edwards’s 26 percent. But Iowa Democratic Party officials cautioned against assuming there would be a consistent pattern in how second choices would translate to individual precinct results.

The poll was conducted by telephone Dec. 13 to 17, among a random sample of 652 Iowa adults likely to participate in the Democratic caucuses. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus four percentage points.

Polling began after the Democratic candidates squared off in their final debate of the year and ended the day after Clinton received the endorsement of the Des Moines Register, Iowa’s largest newspaper. The endorsement did not have an immediate impact: Her support before and after the endorsement were similar in this poll.

Polling analyst Jennifer Agiesta contributed to this report.

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Published in: on December 19, 2007 at 11:46 am Comments (0)

CE Week #16: “Justice Clinton?”

President Taft went on to the Supreme Court. Maybe Mrs. Clinton will park her husband there.

BY DOUGLAS W. KMIEC
Sunday, December 16, 2007 12:01 a.m. ESTHillary Clinton’s commanding lead in the polls has diminished, and with Oprah Winfrey stumping for Barack Obama, she’s called increasingly on the “star power” of husband Bill. But the ubiquitous presence of the former president on the campaign prompts a question: What will Hillary do with Bill if she is elected?

Of course, one might say Hillary has been wondering what to do with Bill for quite some time. But Mr. Clinton’s prominent role in his wife’s campaign–whether going head to head with Oprah for airtime or defending Hillary from “swift-boat-like attacks” from rival Democrats–has renewed the question: What exactly will he be doing on Jan. 21, 2009?

Several job ideas have already been floated. He might be appointed by Gov. Eliot Spitzer of New York to serve the remainder of Mrs. Clinton’s U.S. Senate term. While there is precedent for former presidents–even a former impeached president (Andrew Johnson) returning to the national legislative body–few close to former President Clinton think being one of 100 would satisfy his boundless persona.

In any event, Gov. Spitzer is already under some considerable pressure to appoint a minority to Sen. Clinton’s seat, and even though Mr. Clinton was described by writer Toni Morrison as “the first black president,” that won’t cut it with the practitioners of identity politics.

Mr. Clinton has also been contemplated for something dubbed “ambassador to the world.” But the federal government’s anti-nepotism law would likely preclude her naming Bill to her cabinet.

The issue of Mr. Clinton’s potential role has a serious side for Democrats already concerned about her persistently high negatives. The notion that Mr. Clinton will be a “shadow president,” effectively circumventing the constitutional limitations on presidential service, presents a campaign opportunity for the GOP.So if neither a Senate nor executive position will do, what does work? While it’s probably not something the Hillary campaign would want us to contemplate, we should remember that there are three branches of government, and that it is widely anticipated that there will be one or more vacancies on the Supreme Court during the next presidential term.

Before dismissing the possibility of Justice William Jefferson Clinton, it is worth recalling a bit of history–most notably, the history of another former president who landed on the Supreme Court, William Howard Taft. Taft would come to love his fellow justices and the court so much that he later described them as his ideals “that typify on earth what we shall meet hereafter in heaven under a just God.”

That seems a little strong for Bill Clinton, but Taft and Mr. Clinton are not without their similarities. For example, both started out in life as law professors–Taft at the University of Cincinnati and Mr. Clinton at the University of Arkansas. Mr. Clinton also shares with Taft a warm, gregarious personality that is well received at home and abroad.

There are also differences. Taft never had his law license suspended (Mr. Clinton’s suspension for “serious misconduct” formally ended in 2006), and Taft had extensive judicial service on lower courts before the presidency. Indeed, Taft always preferred the judiciary over the executive office, assessing his own presidential term as “a very humdrum, uninteresting administration” that failed to “attract the attention or enthusiasm of anybody.” President Clinton’s service, by no one’s calculus, was uninteresting.

The attractiveness of the high bench to Bill Clinton might well increase once he familiarized himself with the details. The former president could not help but admire how Taft personally mapped out a Machiavellian strategy for appointment.Among other things, Taft as president deliberately chose appointees of advanced age. This was especially true of Edward Douglass White. Taft named him chief justice at the age of 65, passing over Charles Evans Hughes, a far more logical choice and a vibrant 48.

It’s too much of a stretch to see either of Mr. Clinton’s appointments in the same light, though when Hillary would be in the oval office, both Stephen Breyer and Ruth Bader Ginsburg will be in their 70s and John Paul Stevens pushing 90. It would be untrue and insulting to the integrity of all three to think of them as just biding their time, but back in 1920, it was reasonably clear that Justice White was, in the words of the historians, “keeping the seat warm for Taft.”

While Taft did manage to angle the center seat, mercifully that would not appear to be in the cards for Mr. Clinton. Notwithstanding a curious and worrisome summer seizure, Chief Justice John Roberts seems young, vigorous and at the start of a long tenure. So why would Bill Clinton take the lesser job of associate justice?

Well, instead of being one of a 100 he would be one of nine. And like the late Associate Justice William Brennan, he would have the personality to influence outcomes on the court–especially given its currently teetering 5-to-4 composition–disproportionately to his single vote. Moreover, his influence on the bench could extend well beyond “the marble palace.” Taft, for instance, reshaped the entire federal judiciary for decades to follow.

Would anyone doubt a Justice Clinton’s ability and inclination to remake a federal bench in a manner calculated to erase its current edge of Reagan and Bush appointees? Or that his influence would be limited to chatting up whomever Hillary is thinking of naming as attorney general?

In short, a seat on the Supreme Court solves Sen. Clinton’s dilemma of what to do with her husband if she becomes president. It keeps Bill formally out of the White House and structurally out of the executive branch. And lest that dampen Mr. Clinton’s interest, he might be reassured by Taft’s practice of continuing to advise the president on the substance of legislation and to lobby to sustain various presidential vetoes.

True, some of this activity would be seen as well beyond the precepts of modern judicial ethics, but even if Justice Clinton stayed solely within his judicial role, his impact need hardly be minimal. During Taft’s service, the court called the shots in government getting its own building and for the first time winning virtually complete control of its own docket.

How much more opportunity would be knocking for a Justice Clinton with an Iraq-induced, Democrat-controlled Congress? There’s no need to take this comparison further at this point. Former President Clinton will no doubt guffaw at the possibility of judicial service, but then, hasn’t he already stated, “I will serve in whatever capacity she deems most appropriate”?

William Howard Taft’s biographer, Jeffrey B. Morris, writes that no Supreme Court justice “has proven as audacious in conceiving his role, for Taft had treated his job as an American Lord Chancellor–managing a system, framing legislation and putting it through, selecting judges, as well as presiding over a court and deciding cases.” No justice that is until perhaps Justice William Jefferson Clinton? Only time will tell.

Mr. Kmiec, assistant attorney general and head of the Office of Legal Counsel to Presidents Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush, is a professor of constitutional law at Pepperdine University and a volunteer legal adviser to Gov. Mitt Romney.

Published in: on December 18, 2007 at 10:05 pm Comments (4)

CE Week #16: “’Twas the Month Before Iowa …”

 

Clinton and Edwards have got only a week or two before holiday cheer makes their attacks look Grinchy.

By Jonathan Alter

NEWSWEEK

Updated: 4:28 PM ET Dec 8, 2007

It was an “October Surprise”—an unexpected, transforming political event—in December, and a happy one. What a relief to know the U.S. government believes definitively that Iran poses no immediate nuclear threat. President Bush’s scare talk about “World War III” (at a time when he was being briefed on early indications that Iran’s nuclear program was dismantled in 2003) has proved to be just more jive. That means we no longer have to lose sleep wondering if Dick Cheney and Norman Podhoretz will convince Bush to take care of business by bombing Iran before he leaves office. We can fret about something else.

So can the Democratic candidates in Iowa. The news offered Barack Obama some vindication on foreign policy. His plummet in the polls grew out of his unorthodox performance in an early debate, where Hillary Clinton scored by calling him “naive and irresponsible” for wanting to talk to Iran’s whack-job president. At the time, this made her seem presidential. But instead of backing off, Obama began quoting JFK (”We must never negotiate out of fear, nor fear to negotiate”) and made an issue, in his too-wordy way, of Clinton’s saber-rattling support for Bush on Iran. Now he’s on the move in Iowa and New Hampshire.

For GOP candidates, the demise of Iran-war fever is highly inconvenient; it undercuts their debate machofests. For Democrats, the inconvenient news comes out of Iraq, not Iran. They can accurately claim that the surge is not a success because it hasn’t achieved its objective—a political settlement in Iraq. But General Petraeus has saved lives, which makes that “General Betray Us” nonsense peddled by MoveOn.org look awfully stupid. So the Democratic candidates are talking a lot less about Iraq and a lot more about other issues on the minds of voters, like the precarious state of the economy, which two former Treasury secretaries said last week is likely headed for a recession.

Clinton is increasingly pointing to the economic success of her husband’s presidency. But when she says “we created” millions of new jobs, it raises the question of what role she played (as well as the role of, say, the tech revolution). In truth, jobs were not in the First Lady’s job description. Her health-care initiative gives her more to work with in the battle over “experience,” but bashing Obama’s plan doesn’t seem to be playing for her any better than her dozen other fusillades against him. And charging that Obama has wanted to be president since he was in kindergarten was the most boneheaded gibe in memory. Her hard-boiled New York handlers have no feel for cornfield caucus-goers, who prefer their politics “Iowa Nice.” The geniuses who designed the attack-dog strategy are hurting Clinton’s reputation for competence and conjuring images of Howard Dean’s arrogant, out-of-state, orange-hatted foot soldiers in 2004. Clinton’s best—maybe only—hope is the formidable network built by former governor Tom Vilsack and his popular wife, Christie.

Obama’s challenge is managing expectations—of his chances and of himself. If he sustains his momentum and wins Iowa, it won’t be because of Oprah, though she’ll probably get the credit (in the same way that Dean’s scream was blamed for his defeat, even though it happened after he lost). The caucuses are devilishly hard to poll. Obama’s young voters are notorious caucus no-shows who can always claim they had to skip the caucuses to watch the Orange Bowl, featuring nearby Kansas. And thousands of Iowa college students will be home for Christmas vacation out-of-state. On the substance front, Obama helped himself last week by finally unveiling an ambitious national-service plan, which doubles the Peace Corps, greatly expands AmeriCorps and offers more college scholarships in exchange for service. With his foresight in opposing the Iraq war sounding repetitive, this puts some programmatic meat on the inspirational bones of his message.

Iraq and Iran were never much part of Edwards’s message, so their diminishing resonance could help him. With anxiety over the economy growing, voters are looking for scapegoats. Cue his attacks on corporate America and Clinton’s relationship with it. Stopping Obama is trickier, though in the end, Edwards’s harsh rhetoric might fit the mood of Democrats better than Obama’s talk of bipartisanship. And the 32 percent Edwards won in Iowa in 2004 makes for a terrific base. If he can keep their loyalty (and he’s been working madly to do so for four years), he wins. Caucus night is Jan. 3, which means he and Clinton have got only a week or two to stop Obama before the holiday cheer makes their attacks look Grinchy. Funny how this campaign went from too long to too short almost overnight.

As the first campaign since 1952 that boasts no incumbent president or vice president, this election is a Rubik’s Cube of candidates and issues. Iran is receding. Stem-cell research, once thought to be a potent issue for Democrats, has been neutralized politically by a medical breakthrough. Iraq is receding, but certain to reassert itself, probably in the form of Bush’s withdrawing some troops to protect the prospects of Republicans. Immigration will remain an ugly evergreen. And, of course, there’s always the chance of another October Surprise of some kind to scramble the race—in March or May or whenever we least expect it.

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CE Week #16: “Starting From Scratch”

 

There’s much wrong with how America trades on its status in the world, says Ron Paul. He’s got fixes.

By Howard Fineman

NEWSWEEK

Updated: 4:25 PM ET Dec 8, 2007

Attention must be paid to Dr. Ron Paul, the 110-proof libertarian in the Republican race. He’s had a surprisingly strong online fund-raising push and now has at least $10 million in the bank. In Iowa, according to the new NEWSWEEK Poll, he’s got 8 percent support among likely GOP caucusgoers, and he’s a legit wild card in more-independent New Hampshire. After taping “The View,” of all things, he met last week with NEWSWEEK’S Howard Fineman to defend his controversial views:

Fineman: Why are you such a hit on the Internet?
Paul:
It’s the message. It’s the fact that people aren’t very comfortable with their economic future. They don’t like the intrusion of their privacy, don’t like what the war’s doing, and they hear a little bit about me and they’ll go to a Web site or my congressional Web site and find out how I voted, what I stand for, and say, “Wow, that’s what I believe in.” Then they get enthusiastic and spontaneously start organizing for the campaign … And I take a very strong stand against taxation and regulation on the Internet, and it sort of fits the libertarian spirit of communication.

You don’t criticize tax resisters. Why?
Civil disobedience is a legitimate tool in a free society, but you have to suffer the consequences. I don’t go and preach that that is what we should be doing … If they are defending [their interpretation of] the Constitution, they know what they’re doing. This money is supporting evil in the world, through pre-emptive war [in Iraq]. I mean, that’s pretty evil as far as I’m concerned: so much waste in a system of government that has just overrun our liberties. In many ways it’s heroic that people are willing to risk their freedom to defend what they think is freedom. It’s just, I do not promote it and do not participate in it.

Do you support any limit on private ownership of guns or weapons?
Sure. The Second Amendment means the federal government can’t interfere with your right to have a weapon to defend yourself. The type of weapons weren’t defined, of course, in the Constitution, but if you live next door to me and I thought you were working on a 500-ton bomb, I would say there’s a clear and present danger. So there’s a limit. I might ask the officials to get a proper search warrant to find out if you are, because this could be very dangerous.

Other than Afghanistan, where you supported military action, is there any other place in the world where we need to reserve the right to take military action?
No—no place in the world today. We are so powerful and so capable that we spend more money than everybody else put together. Nobody is threatening this country militarily and nobody can threaten our liberties. I have a greater concern for our civil liberties under attack here at home by the executive branch, judicial branch and legislative branch.

If you don’t win, will you support the GOP nominee and promise not to run on the Libertarian or any other ticket?
I’m not promising any of those things. If we have a Republican nominee that has convinced me they have come around on foreign policy … I would consider it. As far as running on a third-party ticket, or [as an] independent, or Libertarian, I have no plans to do that.

Well, “no plans” doesn’t mean you won’t.
The best way I can state it is: I have no plans. I can’t conceive of it. But I guess in life there aren’t that many absolutes.

You say that our sovereignty is under assault at home. By whom?
The philosophic group who likes governmental globalism—the people who would support, say, the U.N., the World Bank, the IMF [International Monetary Fund], the WTO [World Trade Organization].

Who are the people supporting that “group”?
I would say most leaders in both the Republican and Democratic parties. I mean, I would have trouble finding someone who doesn’t support that.

If most of Congress and successive presidents support those organizations, aren’t they synonymous with the American people?
I’d like to think that they are truly representing people. But you know what the statistics were before we went into Iraq? Probably 70 or 80 percent of the American people said “absolutely not,” they didn’t want to go. The war propaganda changed their mind. There was just a small group of people in the administration who pumped up the nation to go to war, but that didn’t make it right.

Who were those people?
The neoconservatives, the [Paul] Wolfowitzes, the [David] Wurmsers, the Dick Cheneys—the various people that saw this as a moral equivalent of spreading democracy.

It’s long been law that if you are born here, you are a citizen, even if your parents are here illegally. You want to change that. Why?
I’d argue that the conditions are different, that we have to decrease the incentives to come. If they come, and are put into the welfare system, and [their kids] are born here—and I’ve delivered some of these babies—[the kids] are immediately put on benefits. They can get housing allowances, food allowances, and Americans resent it because our economy is so weak. Whether it’s amnesty or birthright citizenship or special benefits, I want to change that. I want a healthy economy. Then we will be able to have a much more generous immigration policy, which would fit my personal philosophy and our Constitution.

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CE Week #16: “A New American Holy War”

 

By Jon Meacham

NEWSWEEK

Updated: 4:59 PM ET Dec 8, 2007

The speech was written, the stagecraft set. Last Wednesday evening, about 12 hours before he was to speak on faith and public life as the guest of George H.W. Bush in College Station, Texas, Mitt Romney was musing aloud about the task before him. The former Massachusetts governor was happy with the text, which had taken him nearly a week to write and polish: it was rife with allusions to the Founding Fathers and to what Romney called “our grand tradition of religious tolerance and liberty.” He was thrilled, too, that the 41st president was going to introduce him; Romney would not have chosen the Bush library as the venue if the senior President Bush had declined to be there. (Bush 41 offered no endorsement, but tacit benediction—and, before the morning speech, cold cereal, which Romney declined, leaving the former president to have a bowl by himself while the governor drank a caffeine-free Diet Coke.) “My view is that when a person of faith is running for office—particularly a person of a faith you may not be familiar with—there are some questions that are legitimate,” Romney said from the road in Houston. Would the authorities of a president’s church exert influence on White House decisions? Would a president of a given faith put his country’s traditions and laws above those of his church’s? “Those are real issues, and people have a right to hear a candidate address them,” Romney said. But there had to be a line drawn somewhere: “There are some particular doctrines, some theological concepts, that we don’t need to go into, no matter what faith it is.”

Or so Romney hopes—and, given the poll numbers in Iowa, which votes in three weeks, perhaps prays. At almost exactly the same hour on Wednesday, Mike Huckabee was spending a rare night at home in Little Rock, packing for a campaign trip to South Carolina. In a telephone interview with NEWSWEEK’S Holly Bailey, Huckabee, an ordained Southern Baptist minister, declined to say whether he agreed with evangelical Christians who believe Mormonism is a heretical cult. “First of all, I don’t think it’s appropriate for me to start evaluating other religions,” Huckabee said. “The more I answer these questions, the more people want to say, ‘Ah, you describe yourself as a theologian,’ or ‘Oh, you’re the one who is setting yourself up as a judge of religions.’ I am damned if I do; I am damned if I don’t.”

Then he did. Asked if he thought Scriptural revelations from God ended when the Bible was completed, Huckabee said: “I don’t have any evidence or indication that he’s handed us a new book to add to the ones, the 66, that were canonized in 325 A.D. … It was a careful process that adopted those books. That was something I did study in college and seminary … the process by which we ended up with those books. I don’t know that there’s any other books.”

Which no doubt comes as a surprise to the world’s nearly 13 million members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, who, like Romney, believe that God did indeed reveal another text in 19th-century America, the Book of Mormon. For Huckabee, such a disagreement in a matter of faith can be no small thing. In an ad, he is styled as a “Christian leader” and says, “Faith doesn’t just influence me; it really defines me.”

So it has come to this: the 2008 Republican Iowa caucuses have descended into a kind of holy war. The clash centers on issues that are, in Saint Augustine’s phrase, ever ancient, ever new: the nature of God, the disposition of power and the sanctity of conscience. The skirmish pits Huckabee against Romney in a story of hardball politics and high-minded history, of shadowy slurs and noble principles.

Fights about faith and politics have been with us always. In 1800, there were advertisements saying voters could have “Adams and God, or Jefferson and no God.” Andrew Jackson resisted the formation of a “Christian Party in Politics.” Abraham Lincoln buried a proposed constitutional amendment designed to declare the nation’s dependence on, and allegiance to, Jesus. A century ago, in the 1908 campaign, William Howard Taft, a Unitarian, was attacked as an apostate by supporters of William Jennings Bryan, an evangelical Christian. “Think of the United States with a President who does not believe that Jesus Christ was the Son of God, but looks upon our immaculate Savior as a … low, cunning imposter!” The Pentecostal Herald said in July 1908.

Three weeks away from the Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses, it seems clear that we have not moved very far beyond where we were in the Taft-Bryan race. In November, voters in Iowa and in New Hampshire received mysterious calls known as push polls, in which the questioner “pushes” an often hostile point about a candidate in the guise of asking a polling question. According to The Boston Globe, Ralph Watts, a state representative in Iowa who backs Romney, got just such a call. The voice on the other end of the line said: “Some people say the Mormon Church is a cult; would that make you more or less likely to vote for Mitt Romney?” Then came favorable questions about John McCain. (The calls stopped once they were reported in the press; they have been traced to a Utah-based company. The McCain, Huckabee and Giuliani campaigns deny any involvement, and the New Hampshire attorney general is investigating.)

The calls are the most egregious manifestations of a larger anti-Mormon bias. Romney had long resisted making a big speech on religion; he and his advisers believed it would only attract attention to a complicated and distracting issue. The new NEWSWEEK Poll of Iowa voters shows why he had to change his mind: Huckabee is now leading Romney among likely caucus-goers, 39 percent to 17 percent. Among evangelicals—who are likely to make up roughly 40 percent of the vote on Jan. 3—Huckabee is ahead 47 percent to 14 percent. Among non-evangelicals, the two are tied at 24 percent each. Half of evangelical voters say they do not consider Mormons to be Christians, and a third say Romney’s faith makes them less likely to support him.

In College Station, Romney avoided explaining the particulars of the Mormon Church, focusing instead on the broader history of faith and politics in America. “Any believer in religious freedom, any person who has knelt in prayer to the Almighty, has a friend and ally in me,” he said. “And so it is for hundreds of millions of our countrymen: we do not insist on a single strain of religion—rather, we welcome our nation’s symphony of faith.” In articulating the Gospel According to Mitt, though, he never explicitly endorsed a critical element of the American tradition: the right of any person not to believe.

In a telephone interview with Romney on Friday evening, I asked him why he had, to many ears, seemed to fail to reach out to those of no religious belief: “I was struck that you did not explicitly extend the definition of religious liberty to those who believe nothing at all …”

“I don’t think I defined religious liberty,” Romney replied. “I think it spoke for itself … but of course it includes all, all forms of personal conviction.”

“Or the lack thereof?”

“Yeah, the lack …” He paused. “But—well, the people who don’t have a particular faith have a personal conviction. I said all forms of personal conviction. And personal conviction includes a sense of right and wrong and any host of beliefs someone might have. Obviously in this nation our religious liberty includes the ability to believe or not believe.”

So, in the end, there it was, but it took a while. Not surprisingly, the politics of the primary season probably kept him from making himself clear from the start: to offer a hand to atheists and agnostics, while presidential, would do him little good, and possibly much harm, with the Iowa voters he needs.

Romney also conflated religion and morality, quoting John Adams, who said, “We have no government armed with power capable of contending with human passions unbridled by morality and religion … Our constitution was made for a moral and religious people.” True—but note that Adams spoke of morality and religion as separate things. Acts of charity and grace need not be religiously inspired; many are and many are not. Religious people can be intolerant, cruel and exclusionary; they can also be broad-minded, kind and welcoming. The same can be said of people who adhere to no religious faith.

After citing Adams, Romney said: “Freedom requires religion just as religion requires freedom.” The second part is an ancient theological tradition: without free will faith is not faith but coercion. The first point, however, is arguable, for societies can be secular, free and successful. I asked Romney to explain his thinking. In sum, he believes a republic is dependent on the virtue of the people, the virtue of the people is dependent on morality, and that morality is dependent on religion. To support his case he (wisely) alluded to Washington’s Farewell Address, which says, “of all the dispositions and habits which lead to political prosperity, religion and morality are indispensable supports … let us with caution indulge the supposition that morality can be maintained without religion.” But Washington was simply raising a “caution,” and it is a mistake to think that one need be religious to be moral.

Romney would have been on safer ground had he said that America has always been largely religious and largely free, and that America’s religious traditions should fight for the freedom of all, if only out of self-interest. Without freedom of conscience, today’s tyrant could be tomorrow’s tyrannized, and the other way round. With freedom of conscience, we come closer to living out the promise Washington made in his 1790 letter to the Hebrew Congregation at Newport, R.I., in which he said that the government of the United States was “to give to bigotry no sanction … and to persecution no assistance.”

Romney’s failure to make a noble public stand for the rights of atheists and skeptics is tactically understandable if intellectually disappointing. The man he is now trailing in Iowa is smooth on the campaign circuit, appealing to conservative Christians without alienating other kinds of voters. How long this will last is an open question. Huckabee the front runner is only now beginning to face new scrutiny. A speech he gave in 1998 is likely to come up again. Addressing Southern Baptist pastors gathered at the Salt Palace Convention Center, Huckabee, then governor of Arkansas, said that he “got into politics because I knew government didn’t have the real answers, that real answers lie in accepting Jesus Christ into our lives … I hope we answer the alarm clock and take this nation back for Christ.”

Take this nation back for Christ: the phrase echoes the language of Jerry Falwell, who was against ministers’ mixing in politics when the subject was civil rights but changed his mind after the Roe decision in 1973. In a Moral Majority report, Falwell’s organization urged “an old-fashioned, God-honoring, Christ-exalting revival to turn America back to God.” Such talk was precisely what the Founders had hoped to avoid.

In truth, the separation of church and state—including a constitutional prohibition against a religious test for federal office—was essential to them, but they also understood that religion and politics were always going to be mixed up together. The critical thing was to manage this human reality, to minimize its ill effects and make the most of the possible good it could do. Led by Madison, the Founders were determined to make religion one of the many contending forces in the republican arena—forces that would check and balance one another.

The alternatives were—and are—bleak. To try to banish faith altogether would fail, for the religious would become martyrs, and religious belief is a perennial force in human affairs. (”All men,” said Homer, “need the gods.”) And to give faith a dominant role risked repeating the gloomy experience of the Old World and the worst parts of our Colonial history, a history checkered by theocracy and persecution from Jamestown to Massachusetts Bay.

Taken all in all, religion, like commerce and nationalism and so much else in history, has had its bright and dark hours. In 1808, Jacob Henry, a Jewish-American, was elected to the state legislature of North Carolina, which refused to seat him unless he was (a) a Protestant and (b) conceded the divine authority of the Old and New Testaments. Here is what Henry said to them: “Governments only concern the actions and conduct of man, and not his speculative notions. Who among us feels himself so exalted above his fellows as to have a right to dictate to them any mode of belief?”

Too many people do feel so exalted, which is why religious believers, who far outnumber those who do not believe, have a special obligation to be humble and gracious and respectful. John Jay, the chief justice and a warden of Trinity Church Wall Street in New York, was a devout Anglican, but he firmly understood what America was to be about: “Real Christians,” he said, “will abstain from violating the rights of others.” Or better yet, real Americans will abstain from violating those rights.

Last Thursday morning, his speech done, Romney and his family had a short visit with the Bushes, and then took their leave. The governor had closed his remarks with the image of the Continental Congress at prayer in Carpenters’ Hall in Philadelphia amid what John Adams called “the horrible rumor of the cannonade of Boston.” The delegates had argued over whether those of different denominations could pray together, but they were brought together when Sam Adams announced that he was “no bigot, and could hear a prayer from a gentleman of piety and virtue who was at the same time a friend to his country.” An Episcopal priest was summoned, and read the psalm assigned for the day: “Plead my cause, O Lord, with them that strive with me; fight against them that fight against me.” Back in Iowa, at war, one suspects it is a prayer that resonates with Romney.

Disparate Doctrines: Two Faiths in Conflict

The tension between evangelicals and Mormons is as old as the Mormon Church itself. While the two religions share similarly conservative social values, their beliefs clash when it comes to some of the most fundamental aspects of Christianity. The critical differences:

NEWSWEEK

Updated: 4:59 PM ET Dec 8, 2007

SCRIPTURE
Evangelical The New and Old Testaments of the Bible are the complete revelation of God’s holy word. Evangelicals regard the Bible as the ultimate and absolute religious authority.
Mormon Believe the Bible to be the word of God “as far as it is translated correctly.” They also consider “The Book of Mormon: Another Testament of Jesus Christ” and newer revelations to Joseph Smith and other prophets as Scripture.

HOLY TRINITY
Evangelical The Father, his Son (Jesus Christ) and the Holy Spirit are a single entity. Each has distinct attributes, but the three are undivided in essence or being. This is the traditional Christian conception of the Holy Trinity.
Mormon Heavenly Father, Jesus Christ and the Holy Ghost are physically separate and distinct entities with distinct roles, but act with a single purpose. Mormons typically refer to the Holy Trinity as the Godhead.

GOD
Evangelical God is a spirit without a human form. While Scripture may use humanlike characteristics to describe God, He is not human and does not have a physical body.
Mormon Like Jesus Christ, God has a humanlike body that is immortal and perfected. Mormons believe in eternal progression and that they may someday become gods.

SALVATION
Evangelical Comes when the individual develops a heartfelt faith in Jesus Christ. Salvation is not dependent on how one acted on Earth but rather on a relationship with Christ.
Mormon Comes through Jesus Christ for all people. After being resurrected, all will be judged, and according to the Plan of Salvation, their level of reward in the afterlife depends on how they lived their earthly life.

MORALITY
Evangelical Prohibits (or discourages) premarital sex and drunkenness. Moderate consumption of alcohol and tobacco is typically accepted by the evangelical churches. Strong emphasis on family values and community.
Mormon Expects complete abstinence from alcohol, tobacco, coffee and tea. The church also prohibits members from having sexual relations outside of marriage. Strong emphasis on family values and community.

SIZE OF CHURCH
Evangelical About 100 million Americans— a third of the population— are evangelical Protestants. (Evangelical population estimates vary by survey.)
Mormon Six million Americans belong to the Mormon Church, comprising about 2 percent of the population. Roughly a quarter of U.S. Mormons live in Utah; more than half live outside the U.S.

CE Week #16: “How America Decides”

By Mark Halperin, Amy Sullivan

Most Americans are just starting to tune in to the 2008 presidential campaign–and with headlines focused on security expenses for Rudy Giuliani’s liaisons with his then mistress (now wife) and on Hillary Clinton’s attacks on Barack Obama’s kindergarten assignments, they may very well tune back out until after the holidays.

The citizens of Iowa and New Hampshire don’t have that luxury. Campaign flyers and phone solicitations have been inundating them for months, and anyone looking to fuel up the family sedan risks running into a glad-handing candidate at the gas station. But that just makes them the perfect subjects for the first installment of our TIME election-year survey of the American electorate.

Political polls usually function as Ouija boards that campaigns and pundits can use to try to predict the outcome of an election. We’re more interested in figuring out how voters make the decisions that lead to that outcome. Is it a gut reaction, an emotional response to a candidate who makes them feel proud or angry? Are voters more interested in character traits like leadership and sincerity or in policy positions that match their own?

Democratic and Republican voters in Iowa and New Hampshire are much like their counterparts around the country–no more liberal or conservative than the national average. But they have responded to the presidential candidates in ways that differ dramatically from the results reflected in national polls. Those vibrant variations give us insight into how the electorate might respond when given more exposure to and information about the candidates.

For Hillary Clinton, engagement with voters in Iowa–as well as her opponents’ stepped-up attacks on her there–has come at a cost. She remains the clear front runner nationally but looks much more vulnerable in the Hawkeye State, where the Democratic race has tightened to a three-way tie. Strikingly, the very advantages that Clinton enjoys elsewhere–being seen as a strong leader with the most electability–dissipate in Iowa. And she trails far behind Obama and John Edwards in perceptions that she has strong moral character, is inspiring and says what she believes. Voters also express emotional reactions to candidates, and on that front, Clinton’s numbers in Iowa look different as well. She generates less hope and pride in Iowa than in New Hampshire–or the nation as a whole–and those Iowans who say she makes them feel afraid are far less likely to support her than are their counterparts at the national level.

Obama, who spent much of the fall batting back attacks on his experience, seems to have benefited from quality time with Iowa voters. Nationally, his perceived lack of experience shows up in significantly less support among Democrats most concerned about national security. But this gap virtually disappears in Iowa, where voters have heard him talk about his childhood in Indonesia and field foreign policy questions at length. As for New Hampshire, the same pattern holds: voters have warmed to Obama and cooled to Clinton.

Iowans are particularly moved by Edwards and his populist message: 79% of Iowa Democrats say they find him inspiring, compared with 66% of Democrats nationally. That excitement is reflected in the high level of overall satisfaction that Iowa Democrats have with their field of candidates. They are much more likely than Republican voters are to give high ratings to candidates who are not their first choice–which party leaders hope will lead to an enthusiasm advantage they can count on in November 2008.

Both Democrats and Republicans in Iowa place more importance on character issues than on leadership and experience, which explains why Obama and Edwards have been able to challenge Clinton in the state. And those priorities have hurt the other national front runner, Rudy Giuliani. Like Clinton, the former New York City mayor is seen as the most electable candidate in his party by voters nationally. But in Iowa, where the Republican base is dominated by social conservatives and where national-security fears come second to social and moral concerns, Giuliani suffers for the low evaluation of his character. Just 46% of Iowa Republicans say Giuliani has a strong moral character, a number that is barely half that of every other GOP candidate. Not surprisingly, the candidate who scores best on that front, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee (95% give him high moral marks), has been moving up in the polls and now shares the lead in Iowa with Mitt Romney.

Fortunately for Giuliani, Republicans nationally and in New Hampshire are divided on the question of whether strong leadership or moral character is the most important quality in a President. Giuliani draws high levels of support among GOP voters who are most concerned about national-security issues, and that describes almost half of Republicans nationally. For those voters, the New Yorker’s experience during 9/11 and his foreign policy rhetoric trump any concerns about his character and background.

The news may be bleakest for those who hoped the country might tire of division and acrimony and be ready to come together behind common concerns. Voters in the two parties remain deeply divided over the qualities they seek in a President and the concerns that most worry them. Many more Republicans than Democrats are looking for a candidate with strong moral character, while Democrats are much more likely to seek someone with good judgment who cares about people like them. National security is set solidly at the front of GOP minds, while Democrats continue to focus on economic issues. There is one topic they care about equally: social and moral issues. But that’s because they each oppose the other’s views. Those gulfs between the two camps competing for the White House will persist well beyond the election, which is why how America decides is just as significant as whom it chooses.

[This article contains charts and tables. Please see hardcopy or pdf.]

CE Week #16: “Keep Up the Pressure”

By Charles Krauthammer

For Democrats, good news in Iraq is bad news. For me, good news is good news, whether from Iraq or now from Iran. Facts are facts. And if the conclusions of the most recent National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) about Iran’s nuclear program are true, they are moderately encouraging. Moderately only, because the NIE itself expressed only “moderate confidence” in its most sensational conclusion–that Iran had not restarted its previously suspended covert nuclear-weaponization program.

First, the good news. To go nuclear, you need three things: a) the raw material, b) the ability to turn the raw material into a weapon and c) the missiles with which to deliver the weapon. Regarding a and c, Iran is proceeding with alacrity and determination on uranium enrichment (with 2,000 to 3,000 centrifuges running) and on the development and testing of long-range missiles. It is the intermediate step–weaponizing the uranium into a bomb–that the intelligence estimate tells us has been suspended.

Now the caveats. First, weaponization is the most opaque of the three elements. Iran has never declared it or admitted it. Accurate information about it would be hardest to come by. Second, the logic is odd. We now believe weaponization was suspended in fall 2003, at the same time uranium enrichment was suspended. However, when uranium enrichment was resumed a few months after Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s accession to power, the weaponization program (we are now told) was not.

This does not make a lot of sense. Uranium enrichment is more public and therefore more likely to bring sanctions–which, of course, it did. Why reactivate that and not the covert weaponization program–inherently a less open provocation? And why invest enormous resources on the centrifuges for enrichment and on the missiles for delivery if you’re not going to eventually weaponize?

Nonetheless, we learned from the Iraq WMD debacle that logic has a limited place in assessing the behavior of radical regimes. Saddam Hussein bluffed his way into a war that cost him his regime and his life, when he could easily have come clean regarding a WMD program he no longer had. So we must be prepared to grant that bluff and pretense may be part of the Iranian nuclear game as well.

Third, we seem to be relying on one giant and juicy piece of information that came to the U.S. this summer. President George W. Bush said it then took time to determine whether it was disinformation. One can never be sure how these double- and triple-agent mirror games are played, which might be why the NIE is only “moderately confident” it has gotten this one right.

Assuming it has, the conclusion drawn by some–that this means Iran has abandoned its nuclear ambitions–is not just wrong but also contradicted by the NIE itself. Suspension does not mean abandonment. The program can be restarted at any time. The fact that huge amounts are still being spent on uranium enrichment and missile development–the other essentials for a nuclear-weapons program–while the weaponization part remains dormant is overwhelming evidence of a country that wants to go nuclear but is being restrained by international pressure.

Which is why the critics’ claim that this NIE report is a mandate for a new and soft Iranian policy is wrong. John Edwards immediately said the report justified his vote against designating the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organization and imposing sanctions on it. But the NIE’s major conclusion is that Iran calibrates its nuclear efforts–including the suspension of the weaponization part–in a real-world cost-benefit reaction to outside pressure. It makes the case precisely for sanctions.

Moreover, the critics seem not to have noticed when uranium enrichment and weaponization were halted: fall 2003–before the rise of the Iraqi insurgency and while the shock and awe of the U.S.’s three-week conquest of Baghdad was still reverberating throughout the Middle East, scaring WMD pursuers, like Gaddafi’s Libya, into giving up their nuclear programs altogether. Timing suggests that the American military option exercised in Iraq contributed to Iran’s suspension of weaponization.

The military option may not be necessary right now. If weaponization has been suspended, the window for sanctions has been widened. But there is no reasonable argument for taking military action off the table. If the Iranians refuse to negotiate seriously–their new negotiator says all previous negotiations are void and talks now return to square one–the military option needs to be on the table and in plain view.

Published in: on at 10:57 am Comments (0)

CE Week #16: “Kidding Ourselves About Immigration”

By Michael Kinsley

What you are supposed to say about immigration–what most of the presidential candidates say, what the radio talk jocks say–is that you are not against immigration. Not at all. You salute the hard work and noble aspirations of those who are lining up at American consulates around the world. But that is legal immigration. What you oppose is illegal immigration.

This formula is not very helpful. We all oppose breaking the law, or we ought to. Saying that you oppose illegal immigration is like saying you oppose illegal drug use or illegal speeding. Of course you do, or should. The question is whether you think the law draws the line in the right place. Should using marijuana be illegal? Should the speed limit be raised–or lowered? The fact that you believe in obeying the law reveals nothing about what you think the law ought to be, or why.

Another question: Why are you so upset about this particular form of lawbreaking? After all, there are lots of laws, not all of them enforced with vigor. The suspicion naturally arises that the illegality is not what bothers you. What bothers you is the immigration. There is an easy way to test this. Reducing illegal immigration is hard, but increasing legal immigration would be easy. If your view is that legal immigration is good and illegal immigration is bad, how about increasing legal immigration? How about doubling it? Any takers? So in the end, this is not really a debate about illegal immigration. This is a debate about immigration.

And it’s barely a debate at all. On the Democratic side, the arcane issue of whether illegals should be able to get a driver’s license has bitten both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. On the Republican side, the candidates take turns accusing one another of committing some act of human decency toward illegals, and indignantly denying that they did any such thing. Immigration has long divided both parties, with advocates and opponents in each. Among Republicans, support for immigration was economic (corporations), while opposition was cultural (nativists). Among Democrats, it was the reverse: support for immigration was cultural (ethnic groups), while opposition was economic (unions). Now, for whatever reason, support for immigration is limited to an eccentric alliance of high-minded Council on Foreign Relations types, the mainstream media, high-tech entrepreneurs, Latinos, the Wall Street Journal editorial page and President George W. Bush. Everyone else, it seems, is agin.

Maybe the aginners are right, and immigration is now damaging our country, stealing jobs and opportunity, ripping off taxpayers, fragmenting our culture. I doubt it, but maybe so. Certainly, it’s true that we can’t let in everyone who wants to come. There is some number of immigrants that is too many. I don’t believe we’re past that point, but maybe we are. In any event, a democracy has the right to decide that it has reached such a point. There is no obligation to be fair to foreigners.

But let’s not kid ourselves that all we care about is obeying the law and all we are asking illegals to do is go home and get in line like everybody else. We know perfectly well that the line is too long, and we are basically telling people to go home and not come back.

Let’s not kid ourselves, either, about who we are telling this to. To characterize illegal immigrants as queue-jumping, lawbreaking scum is seriously unjust. The motives of illegal immigrants–which can be summarized as “a better life”–are identical to those of legal immigrants. In fact, they are largely identical to the motives of our own parents, grandparents and great-grandparents when they immigrated. And not just that. Ask yourself, of these three groups–today’s legal and illegal immigrants and the immigrants of generations ago–which one has proven most dramatically its appreciation of our country? Which one has shown the most gumption, the most willingness to risk all to get to the U.S. and the most willingness to work hard once here? Well, everyone’s story is unique. But who loves the U.S. most? On average, probably, the winners of this American-values contest would be the illegals, doing our dirty work under constant fear of eviction, getting thrown out and returning again and again.

And how about those of us lucky enough to have been born here? How would we do against the typical illegal alien in a “prove how much you love America” reality TV show?

CE Week #16: “Polls can’t predict presidential primaries”

December 15, 2007

Have you been reading the latest polls on the 2008 presidential contest?

Are you confused?

That’s understandable.

One day, a Newsweek poll shows Barack Obama leading the Democratic race in Iowa by six points over Hillary Clinton. A day later, MSNBC and McClatchy produce a poll that has Clinton up by two.

On the Republican side, in just a few days, Mitt Romney’s longtime lead collapses and a hitherto little-known former Arkansas governor, Mike Huckabee, soars to the top.

And while that’s happening, Clinton and Rudy Giuliani continue to lead the national polls as they have for a year, although Huckabee is breathing down the former New York mayor’s neck on the GOP side.

So what’s a political junkie — or even a more casual observer — to do?

Here are some guidelines:

Disregard national polls.

In February 1984, Walter Mondale led Gary Hart by 57 percent to 7 percent in a CBS-New York Times poll published the day before Hart routed the former vice president in the New Hampshire primary.

History shows that national surveys initially reflect name recognition and are a lagging indicator strongly influenced by results in the early voting states.

Take Iowa polls with a grain of salt.

Caucus turnout is notoriously hard to figure, given the relatively small number of participants. And organization still plays a major role, despite increased stress on television ads; voters don’t spend 30 seconds in a voting booth, they need to spend several hours attending a meeting on a cold winter evening midweek.

In the GOP race, for example, Romney has a far more substantial organization that might neutralize some or all of Huckabee’s momentum from his fellow Christian conservatives.

Among Democrats, Clinton has more support among older voters, who are more likely to vote. Obama does better with younger voters, whose turnout rate traditionally lags. And every Democratic poll for months has shown leads within the margin of error, meaning it’s basically a three-way tie among those two and former Sen. John Edwards.

Take polls in New Hampshire and elsewhere with even more skepticism.

They’ll change when Iowa’s results become known.

In 2004, Howard Dean had a 2-to-1 lead over John Kerry in New Hampshire a month before the Iowa caucuses. Three days after Kerry won in Iowa, he pulled ahead in the New Hampshire polls and beat Dean by 13 points.

And while Giuliani today touts the number of states where polls show him leading, most are places where the surveys are even less meaningful because the primaries are weeks after Iowa. One South Carolina GOP poll shows five candidates between 10 and 20 percent, meaning any could win.

Watch the trends.

Both national front-runners, Clinton and Giuliani, are losing support. Romney has lost his lead in Iowa. Obama and Huckabee are gaining. But three weeks is plenty of time to reverse those trends.

Watch what the candidates do.

This may be the single best indicator.

For months, Clinton stayed positive and chided those who attacked her. Now she’s striking back, a sure sign that her polling shows that the attacks have damaged her. Now she’s the one in trouble.

Obama, by contrast, is staying positive, a sign he believes his strategy is working — and that he’s winning. And Edwards eased his pointed criticism of his rivals, a sign it wasn’t working.

Among the Republicans, Romney hadn’t planned to give a speech on his Mormon faith until later in the campaign but moved it up to last week. The reason: He was losing the support of Christian conservatives in Iowa, in part because of concerns about his religion.

Another clue: Who is under attack?

Romney and Giuliani spent weeks assailing one another, a sign that each saw the other as his major rival. Now Romney has turned his fire toward Huckabee, after polls showed the latter surging ahead in Iowa and South Carolina.

The good news: It’s only three weeks until Iowa. Then, we’ll finally be able to report the results of what voters do, not what they say they’ll do.

And we’ll be able to figure out who’s really winning.

Published in: on December 15, 2007 at 8:24 am Comments (6)

CE Week #16: “Blame media for the slingfests”

Susan Estrich
Creators Syndicate
December 15, 2007

Bill Shaheen was clearly wrong. The Hillary Clinton supporter and husband of New Hampshire’s former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen ignited a firestorm by suggesting that Barack Obama’s open admission of drug use in his youth could be ammunition for the Republicans in a general election.

In case you missed it, what he said was that Obama’s candor “could open the door” to further questions from those mean old Republicans. “It’ll be, ‘When was the last time? Did you ever give drugs to anyone? Did you sell them to anyone?’ … It’s hard to overcome.”

The short answer is: No, it’s not. See George W. Bush. When he was young and crazy, he’s said enough times to make it a mantra, he was young and crazy. More than that he would not say, lest he serve as a bad role model for kids, and more than that no one ever demanded.

The problem with Shaheen’s comments, though, is not simply that they were wrong or unauthorized, or that they forced Hillary herself to repudiate him and them. He hurt the candidate he was trying to help. He helped the candidate he was trying to hurt. He made Hillary look desperate. He made Barack into her victim. He commanded attention he didn’t deserve, hadn’t earned and that his comments didn’t merit.

Why?

Why does anyone really care what a volunteer who is best known for being somebody’s husband has to say about what the Republicans would do in a general election?

It’s a reflection of what politics has come to that nothing either candidate said or did in the last two days commanded near the attention that Shaheen’s unauthorized comments did. What politics has come to is a slugfest, and if the candidates themselves aren’t throwing the punches, the press is willing to cover anybody who does, in whatever form they’re thrown. If Billy Shaheen had given a two-hour speech on all the things he likes about Hillary Clinton, no one would have written a word about it. Who cares, we would have said. But throwing a punch at Obama? Now that’s news.

Shame on us.

The press is desperate to turn this into an ugly war, even if they have to use sucker punches by nobodies to do it.

Of course, it’s true that Obama’s people seized on the remarks, seeing in them an opportunity to portray their opponent as desperate, and as acting in a way inconsistent with her own prior statements. Why wouldn’t they? This is how the game gets played. If politics has become a business in which the fact of an attack gets more coverage than its substance or merits, why not look for an opportunity to brand your opponent as an assailant?

Volunteers, including “officials of state campaigns,” are what we in politics call “loose cannons.” Many of them have titles, titles being a dime a dozen in politics. They say lots of things. But they don’t deserve the press’s attention, or the country’s.

When a loose cannon takes a bad shot, it shouldn’t be enough to start a war. It shouldn’t be the story of the day, with the apology becoming the story of the next day. This is why people hate politics. And they’re half right. It isn’t politics they should hate, but what those of us in the media have done to turn it into a combat sport in which only the punches get attention. If a nobody throws a punch and we all ignore it, it’s not a punch. It’s a tree falling in a forest that no one sees.

In a campaign that’s likely to go on as long as this one, we’ll all be stuck in the swamp by the time it’s over if we’re not careful. Billy who? Forget him.

CE Week #16: “Giving Huckabee a closer look”

Ellen Goodman
Boston Globe
December 15, 2007

Aren’t you beginning to feel just a little sympathy for Republicans? It’s less than a month to the first vote. The Democrats are suffering from an embarrassment of riches. The Republicans are suffering an embarrassment.

The only commitment problems Democrats are having are between appealing suitors. The Republicans, on the other hand, have the wedding date saved, the room picked and they’re still speed-dating.

The men keep coming, one after the next, making a pitch and missing.

Candidate No. 1: John McCain, the man who says what he thinks even if it isn’t popular. But it often isn’t popular. Next!

Candidate No. 2: Rudy Giuliani, the tough guy from New York. But the thrice-married former mayor can’t get beyond Ground Zero. Next!

Candidate No. 3: Fred Thompson, the actor and politician. But folksy Fred isn’t playing Ronald Reagan, he’s playing Sleepy, or is it Grumpy?

Next!

Candidate No. 4: Mitt Romney, the smoothie endorsed by the National Review as the “full-spectrum conservative.” Alas, Mitt’s covered the spectrum by flip-flopping his way across the rainbow. Next!

Now Mike Huckabee is jogging over to the table. The (second) man from Hope has risen in the polls as fast as a wedding cake in the oven. He’s this week’s front-runner for the uncharacteristically fickle GOP.

I confess to a certain weakness for Mike, the sort of weakness that women admit for a man who makes them laugh. The affable pastor, the “recovering foodaholic,” the bass guitarist for “Capitol Offense,” Huckabee once actually trademarked the name “Positive Alternatives.”

In his mocking ad with Chuck Norris, in his populist posture on poverty, in his green-ish talk of being a good steward of the Earth, he’s presented himself as the positive alternative. “I’m a conservative, but I’m not mad at everybody over it,” he told Jon Stewart.

That was after he dropped a good ol’ flatulence joke into the airwaves.

Huckabee’s books include a 12-stop (yes, stop) program for weight loss and a 12-stop program for a better nation. If Huckabee could morph the two and run on a platform that promised “Vote For Me and You’ll Lose Weight,” he’d be unstoppable.

But this man of the hour – or the minute – is selling himself as this year’s compassionate conservative. And even in the speed-dating world, there’s time for a second glance.

Huckabee may “drink a different kind of Jesus juice,” as he says. But that hasn’t stopped him from selling himself on TV as a “Christian leader” – compared to, say, a Mormon leader. In Wednesday’s Des Moines Register debate, he said the most important thing was to bridge the great divides in the country. But that’s the same man who once said we have to “take this nation back for Christ.”

His comments about educating illegal immigrants – “we’re a better country than to punish children for what their parents did” – brought him kudos. But he looked less kind and gentle accepting the endorsement of border vigilante Jim Gilchrist, founder of the Minuteman Project.

As for social issues? Huckabee’s tone has evolved a bit, which is notable since he doesn’t believe in evolution. He frames himself as a politician whose pro-life stance doesn’t begin at conception and end at birth. But he’s long been an anti-abortion absolutist.

Huckabee may now preach against intolerance toward gays. He told the Values Voter Summit: “I want us to be very careful that we don’t come across as having some animosity or hatred toward people.” But his own animosity dates back to a 1992 pitch against an “aberrant, unnatural, and sinful lifestyle” and in favor of quarantining AIDS patients.

As a presidential candidate, Huckabee frames his opposition to gay marriage and civil unions as a stand for “traditional marriage.” But since we’re speed-dating, let’s remember just how traditional a marriage. The pastor politician signed on to the 1998 Southern Baptist Convention statement that “a wife is to submit herself graciously to the servant leadership of her husband.” Prenup anyone?

All this may help him court the evangelical voters who make up 45 percent of Iowa’s Republican caucus voters, but are they ready to hitch up with the man who missed the intelligence report on Iran? The man who is a blank slate on foreign policy?

And what of the culturally valued but ethically challenged governor behind the guitar who took endless gifts from his supporters, including 50 percent off hamburgers at Wendy’s. The Huckabees even signed up for a gift registry when he left the governor’s house. Does he still make you laugh?

Huckabee said that Americans are “willing to forgive people for their ideology if they have optimism and vision.” He could be right. That’s what sold the last compassionate conservative? Remember him?

Next!

CE Week #16: “Justice Department, CIA deny inquiry on videotapes”

Officials: call would hurt internal audits

Related news
Interrogation bill blocked

» WASHINGTON – Senate Republicans blocked a bill Friday that would restrict the interrogation methods the CIA can use against terrorism suspects.

» The legislation, part of a measure authorizing the government’s intelligence activities for 2008, had been approved a day earlier by the House and sent to the Senate for what was supposed to be final action. The bill would require the CIA to adhere to the Army’s field manual on interrogation, which bans waterboarding, mock executions and other harsh interrogation methods.

» The Senate was prevented from voting on the intelligence bill because Sen. Lindsay Graham, R-S.C., placed a hold on it while a GOP procedural challenge goes forward.

» ”I think quite frankly applying the Army field manual to the CIA would be ill-advised and would destroy a program that I think is lawful and helps the country,” said Graham.

Associated Press

Dan Eggen and Joby Warrick
Washington Post
December 15, 2007

WASHINGTON – The Justice Department moved Friday to delay congressional inquiries into the CIA’s destruction of interrogation videotapes, saying the administration could not provide witnesses or documents sought by lawmakers without jeopardizing its own investigation of the CIA’s actions.

Congressional leaders from both parties alleged that Justice is trying to block their investigation and vowed to press ahead with hearings.

A pair of letters from Justice and CIA officials to leaders of the House and Senate intelligence committees intensified the conflict between the Bush administration and Congress, which is seeking to force current and former CIA leaders to testify as early as next week. The lawmakers want CIA officials to account for the decision to destroy tapes that depicted the use of harsh interrogation tactics on terrorism suspects.

The growing feud is the first major confrontation with Congress for new Attorney General Michael B. Mukasey, who was narrowly confirmed last month amid controversy over his refusal to describe waterboarding – a severe interrogation tactic that simulates drowning – as torture.

“We fully appreciate the committee’s oversight interest in this matter, but want to advise you of concerns that actions responsive to your request would represent significant risk to our preliminary inquiry,” Kenneth L. Wainstein, assistant attorney general for national security, and CIA Inspector General John L. Helgerson wrote in a letter to House intelligence committee leaders.

The top Democrat and Republican on the House intelligence committee issued a joint statement that labels Justice’s advice to the CIA witnesses an effort to obstruct the congressional probe.

“We are stunned that the Justice Department would move to block our investigation,” Reps. Silvestre Reyes, D-Texas, and Peter Hoekstra, R-Mich., said in the statement. “Parallel investigations occur all of the time, and there is no basis upon which the Attorney General can stand in the way of our work.”

They vowed to “use all the tools available to Congress, including subpoenas” to compel the CIA to produce documents and require key officials to testify about the tapes.

The CIA disclosed last week that it destroyed videotapes in 2005 depicting interrogation sessions for alleged al-Qaida operative Zayn al-Abidin Muhammed Hussein, commonly known as Abu Zubaida, and another suspect, later identified by officials as Abd al-Rahim al-Nashiri. Administration officials have said that lawyers at the Justice Department and the White House, including then-Counsel Harriet E. Miers, advised the CIA against destroying the tapes but that CIA lawyers ruled their preservation was not required.

CE Week #16: “Huckabee pitches sales tax plan”

Presidential hopeful sees chance to save Social Security

Libby Quaid
Associated Press
December 15, 2007

BOSCAWEN, N.H. – Republican presidential hopeful Mike Huckabee said eliminating federal income taxes in favor of a national sales tax would help save Social Security – an odd pitch in a state where residents pay no state income or sales taxes.

“Instead of basing our national budget off of payroll taxes for Social Security … it means the base of funding is much broader,” said Huckabee, whose shoestring campaign has surged nationally and in Iowa, which holds caucuses five days before New Hampshire’s Jan. 8 primary.

“That’s important because we have a declining number of people who actually live by their wages,” the former Arkansas governor told workers at the Elektrisola plant in Boscawen, where workers make wires for electric guitars like those Huckabee plays, among other things.

The tax plan Huckabee has proposed, called the “FAIR tax,” would eliminate federal income and investment taxes and replace them with a 23 percent federal sales tax. The poor would pay no net sales tax up to the poverty level, and every household would receive a rebate equal to sales taxes paid on essential goods and services.

Even the backers of the tax admit it is unlikely to get through Congress, and other leading GOP candidates have been critical of the idea. And it’s a tough sell in New Hampshire, where residents do not pay state income taxes or general sales taxes. Scott Sweezey, a programmer at the plant who lives in Bristol, said he doesn’t know how to make a consumption tax treat people fairly.

“Low-income or retired would pay the same tax as somebody who has a million dollars,” said Sweezey, an independent. “I guess if you don’t buy anything, you don’t pay any sales tax, but if you do buy something, you pay sales tax.”

A grim future looms for Social Security, because as post-World War II baby boomers begin retiring, the system won’t collect enough taxes to pay for retirement benefits. The government likely will have to raise taxes or reduce benefits.

Neither solution is attractive, so presidential candidates in both parties avoid talking about them. An exception is Republican former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson, who proposes lower-than-promised benefits for future retirees as well as new private investment accounts.

Huckabee says replacing income taxes with a sales tax would also have the benefit of discouraging illegal immigration because people would be forced to pay taxes they’re not paying now.

Not everyone in New Hampshire dislikes the idea of a federal sales tax.

Ken Schuhle, a Navy veteran from Dover and a registered Republican, said it would eliminate loopholes that rich people exploit. “That way, everybody pays our share,” said Schuhle, who listened to Huckabee speak during lunch at the New Hampshire Veterans Home in Tilton.

Huckabee also named Republican political strategist Ed Rollins as his national campaign chairman. Rollins was national campaign director for Ronald Reagan in the 1984 presidential election, in which Reagan won 49 states except Minnesota, Walter Mondale’s home. At a news conference in Concord, Rollins promised his candidate would work just as hard in New Hampshire as in Iowa and South Carolina, states where large numbers of evangelical Christians are increasingly choosing Huckabee.

“I think we have an obligation, both to Mike Huckabee and his people and the voters of New Hampshire, to wage a full-scale campaign here and let people make up their minds on Election Day,” Rollins said.

Independents have not yet chosen a candidate, he noted: “We’re going to make a big attempt at getting those votes, and they’ll be the last voters to make up their minds.

CE Week #16: “Voting rights director quits after allegations”

Voting rights director quits after allegations

Greg Gordon
McClatchy
December 15, 2007

WASHINGTON – The Justice Department’s voting rights chief stepped down Friday amid allegations that he’d used the position to aid a Republican strategy to suppress black votes.

John Tanner became the latest of about a dozen senior department officials, including former Attorney General Alberto Gonzales, who’ve resigned in recent months in a scandal over the politicization of the Justice Department. Tanner has been enmeshed for months in congressional investigations over his stewardship of the Voting Rights Section, a unit of the Justice Department’s Civil Rights Division that was established to protect minority-voting rights.

He drew increased focus this fall after he told a Latino group: “African-Americans don’t become elderly the way white people do. They die.”

In addition, the Justice Department opened an internal investigation into allegations that Tanner unfairly had deprived two veteran black staffers of bonuses and that he and a deputy had misused tax dollars on official trips.

Department spokesman Peter Carr said in a statement that Tanner, of his own accord, “made the decision to pursue (an) opportunity” to work in the Office of Special Counsel for Immigration-Related Unfair Employment Practices. But his transfer to a lower-profile job appeared to continue a quiet housecleaning that began after retired judge Michael Mukasey took over as attorney general early last month with a vow to rid the agency of partisanship.

Chris Coates, a veteran lawyer in the Voting Rights Section, was named the acting chief.

The change drew a hopeful reaction from congressional Democrats.

Michigan Rep. John Con-yers, who chairs the House Judiciary Committee, assailed the department for “a remarkably poor record of protecting voting rights” and expressed hope that Tanner’s successor “will mark a departure from efforts to limit the participation of elderly and minority voters.”

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CE Week #16: “U.S. accepts plan for climate talks”

Framework aims to produce treaty on warming by 2009

Activists dressed as polar bears demonstrate at the conference center where the negotiation of a post-Kyoto protocol is taking place during the UN Climate Conference in Nusa Dua, Bali, Indonesia. Associated Press (Associated Press)

Joseph Coleman
Associated Press
December 15, 2007

BALI, Indonesia – A U.N. climate conference adopted a plan to negotiate a new global warming pact today, after the United States suddenly reversed its opposition to a call by developing nations for technological help to battle rising temperatures.

The adoption came after marathon negotiations overnight, which first settled a battle between Europe and the U.S. over whether the document should mention specific goals for rich countries’ obligations to cut greenhouse gas emissions.

Upcoming talks, to be completed in 2009, may help determine for years to come how well the world can control climate change, and how severe the consequences of global warming will be.

European and U.S. envoys dueled into the final hours of the two-week meeting over the European Union’s proposal that the Bali mandate suggest an ambitious goal for cutting industrial nations’ emissions – by 25 to 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2020.

That guideline’s specific numbers were eliminated from the text, but an indirect reference was inserted instead.

The negotiations snagged again early today over demands by developing nations that their need for technological help from rich nations and other issues receive greater recognition in the document launching the negotiations.

The United States initially rejected those demands, but backed down after delegates criticized the U.S. stand and urged a reconsideration.

“I think we have come a long way here,” said Paula Dobriansky, head of the U.S. delegation. “In this, the United States is very committed to this effort and just wants to really ensure we all act together. We will go forward and join consensus.”

The sudden reversal was met with rousing applause.

In a U.N. process requiring consensus, both sides won and lost.

The broadly worded “roadmap” doesn’t itself guarantee any level of emissions reductions or any international commitment by any country – only a commitment to negotiate.

As for developing countries, the final document instructs negotiators to consider incentives and other means to encourage poorer nations to curb, on a voluntary basis, growth in their emissions. The explosive growth of greenhouse emissions in China, India and other developing countries potentially could negate cutbacks in the developed world.

The Bali conference had been charged with launching negotiations for a regime of deeper emissions reductions to succeed the Kyoto Protocol, which requires 37 industrial nations to cut output of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases by 5 percent below 1990 levels by 2012.

The United States is the only major industrial nation to reject Kyoto. President Bush has complained that it would unduly damage the U.S. economy, and emission caps should have been imposed on China, India and other fast-growing developing countries.

The Bush administration instead favors a voluntary approach – each country deciding how it can contribute – in place of internationally negotiated and legally binding commitments.

Earlier today, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon had expressed frustration over the last-minute dispute concerning the Bali document and urged the more than 180 national delegations to swiftly adopt it.

The U.S. has come under intense criticism in Bali, including from former Vice President Al Gore, over the Bush administration’s opposition to mandatory emission cuts. But all parties acknowledged that negotiations cannot succeed without the involvement of the United States, the world’s leading emitter of greenhouse gases.

For years, the rest of the world has sought to bring the Americans into the framework of international mandates. At this point, however, many seem resigned to waiting for a change in White House leadership after next November’s election.

In a series of landmark reports this year, the U.N.’s network of climate scientists warned of severe consequences – from rising seas, droughts, severe weather, species extinction and other effects – without sharp cutbacks in emissions of the industrial, transportation and agricultural gases blamed for warming.

To avoid the worst, the Nobel Prize-winning panel said, emissions should be reduced by 25 percent to 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2020.

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CE Week #16: “Instead of Plum Appointments, Maybe a Lump of Coal”


By Al Kamen
Friday, December 14, 2007; A37

Christmas is usually a time when controversial nominees for top federal jobs wait for Santa, in the form of the president of the United States, to come down the chimney with their recess appointments.

Maybe not this year. Word is Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.), in order to prevent President Bush from handing out those goodies, is now thinking about keeping the Senate in session during the Christmas-New Year’s break, which starts at the end of next week and continues until the Senate returns in mid- to late January.

The unusual maneuver, which Reid first used during the recent Thanksgiving vacation, would block Bush from using his constitutional power — derived from the days when the Senate could be out of session for months — to fill vacancies. Such appointments made now would be valid through the end of Bush’s presidency.

As a practical matter, if Reid decides to keep the Senate in session, such folks as Sen. Jim Webb (D-Va.), who came in from across the river to wield the gavel during the Thanksgiving break, would once again briefly open and close the Senate twice a week, in what are called pro forma sessions.

Senate Democrats have been particularly upset over several of Bush’s recess appointees, including Charles Pickering to an appeals court seat and, more recently, Republican donor and Swift Boat ad-campaign contributor Sam Fox as ambassador to Belgium.

A Christmas Protest
Speaking of Christmas, Rep. Jim McDermott (D-Wash.) says he’s not really against the holiday, even though he voted this week against a resolution “recognizing the importance of Christmas and the Christian faith.”

McDermott said his vote Tuesday night was a protest against Bush’s anticipated veto of a children’s health insurance bill — which Bush vetoed Wednesday.

“While the Republicans are passing a resolution celebrating Christmas, the president was vetoing health care for children. There’s a little bit of irony going on around here,” McDermott said yesterday.

The Christmas measure was approved 372 to 9, according to the Associated Press, with Democrats casting all the no votes. Besides McDermott, the dissenting votes came from Reps. Gary Ackerman and Yvette Clarke of New York; Barbara Lee, Pete Stark and Lynn Woolsey of California; Diana DeGette (Colo.); Alcee Hastings (Fla.); and Bobby Scott (Va.). Ten lawmakers, including Republican Mike Pence (Ind.), voted “present.” Forty members were absent.

Going Away, Again
Bush, apparently with a bit of time on his hands, couldn’t stay away from a little surprise drop-in at public diplomacy czar Karen Hughes’s going-away party Wednesday afternoon at the State Department.

This is Hughes’s second departure from the administration. She went back to Texas midway through Bush’s first term and then returned for the diplomacy job. White House Chief of Staff Josh Bolten also stopped by, as did national security adviser Stephen Hadley and former White House counsel and, we recall, Supreme Court nominee Harriet Miers. The Supreme Court honor isn’t in her bio at Locke Lord Bissell & Liddell in Dallas, but we checked the clips.

“I wouldn’t be standing here without Karen Hughes,” Bush told the group, referring to her invaluable political skills. He stood there from 4:17 to 4:39 p.m. Not one to linger.

Our Glassman Goof
Speaking of the State Department, they called to say that Wednesday’s column incorrectly said her nominated successor, Broadcasting Board of Governors Chairman James Glassman, will be acting diplomacy czar pending confirmation. Not so.

Cannoli vs. Apple Pie
Bush seemed to some to be dissing American cuisine during his photo op Tuesday with Italian President Giorgio Napolitano.

“It will be my honor to feed you lunch,” Bush said. “I doubt it is going to be — the food is going to be as good as the food I had when I visited your beautiful country.”

Hey. Our burgers can match theirs anytime, any place. What about Texas barbecue?

FEMA: No. 1 in PR Blunders
All in all, a pretty good week for FEMA. First, acting Deputy Administrator Harvey Johnson did well enough at his confirmation hearing Wednesday before the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee that, barring holds or other delays, his confirmation seems a good bet.

A day earlier, FEMA received an especially coveted honor. It was No. 1 on the 13th Annual Top Ten PR Blunders List for 2007, compiled for many years by Fineman PR, a San Francisco firm.

Fineman said FEMA “truly fumbled” when it had staffers play reporters at a phony news conference to hail the agency’s efforts during the recent California wildfires.

FEMA bested a particularly stellar list of contenders this year, according to PR Newswire, including the spectacular disaster by the Cartoon Network when it “covertly” placed blinking devices on bridges, bus depots and subway stations in Boston to promote a TV program.

Boston officials, naturally concerned that these were bombs, shut down sections of the city as a result of what one ad expert called “the most significant blunder in the world of guerrilla advertising.”

The competition was so fierce that California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger ranked only ninth on the list. He told the annual convention of the National Association of Hispanic Journalists that people “have got to turn off the Spanish television set” and stay away from Spanish-language TV, books and newspapers in order to “learn English quickly.” CBS News reported that this advice didn’t go over well with the audience, many of whom were from Spanish-language media.

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CE Week #16: “Rove, Bolten Found in Contempt of Congress”

Senate Committee Cites Top Bush Advisers in Probe of U.S. Attorney Firings
By Paul Kane
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, December 14, 2007; A08

A Senate panel found former presidential adviser Karl Rove and current White House Chief of Staff Joshua B. Bolten in contempt of Congress yesterday for refusing to testify and to turn over documents in the investigation of the firings of nine U.S. attorneys last year.

The Senate Judiciary Committee approved contempt citations against Rove and Bolten on a 12 to 7 vote, rejecting the White House position that the work of two of President Bush’s closest advisers is covered by executive privilege.

Earlier this year, the House Judiciary Committee cited Bolten and former White House counsel Harriet E. Miers for contempt. But action by either chamber of Congress is still weeks or months away. Lawmakers and aides said neither house will take up the issue until late January at the earliest.

More than six months ago, the Senate Judiciary Committee requested Rove’s public testimony on the firings of the prosecutors and issued subpoenas for internal White House e-mails, memos and other related documents. As custodian of White House documents, Bolten was cited for his refusal to turn them over.

“White House stonewalling is unilateralism at its worst, and it thwarts accountability. Executive privilege should not be invoked to prevent investigations into wrongdoing,” said Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Patrick J. Leahy (D-Vt.).

Two senior Republicans, Sens. Arlen Specter (Pa.) and Charles E. Grassley (Iowa), supported the contempt charges.

The White House yesterday repeated its offer to allow Rove and other current and former senior aides to testify about the firings behind closed doors, not under oath and with no transcript. White House press secretary Dana Perino said the Justice Department would refuse to convene a grand jury if either the full House or the full Senate approved the contempt citations; that would leave Democrats unable to force the question of the limits of executive privilege into the federal courts.

“The constitutional prerogatives of the president would make it a futile effort for Congress to refer contempt citations,” Perino said.

The contempt vote came a year after seven of the prosecutors were removed on one day. The firings provoked a furor on Capitol Hill and led to the resignation of former attorney general Alberto R. Gonzales.

The Justice Department’s inspector general and its Office of Professional Responsibility are conducting an internal investigation of the firings and whether Gonzales obstructed congressional probes of the matter.

Despite the likely need for 60 votes to cut off a GOP filibuster in the Senate, Majority Leader Harry M. Reid (Nev.) said he would “look very favorably” on forcing a roll call vote on the issue. “We’ll take a look at that when we come back in January,” Reid said.

CE Week #16: “Muscle Flexing in Senate: G.O.P. Defends Strategy”

December 12, 2007

Congressional Memo

WASHINGTON —Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the Republican leader, operates with near-robotic efficiency when it comes to negotiating budget figures in public, consistently refusing to answer questions that would ever commit him to a specific number at the bargaining table.

So it was more than a little telling when Mr. McConnell laid down his mark in the current budget fight on Tuesday, informing the Capitol Hill press corps that he was ready to offer Democrats a deal, $70 billion in war financing with no strings attached and a total budget identical to President Bush’s proposal.

In other words, the Republicans should get virtually everything they want. And he was not kidding.

With the president warning repeatedly that he will veto any budget package he dislikes and the Democrats short of the 60 votes they need in the Senate, the Republican minority is in an unusually strong bargaining position — and not just in the budget negotiations that are the top priority in Congress these days.

Mr. McConnell and his fellow Republicans are playing such tight defense, blocking nearly every bill proposed by the slim Democratic majority that they are increasingly able to dictate what they want, much to the dismay of the majority leader, Senator Harry Reid of Nevada, and frustrated Democrats in the House.

In fact, the Senate Republicans are so accustomed to blocking measures that when the Democrats finally agreed last week to their demands on a bill to repair the alternative minimum tax, the Republicans still objected, briefly blocking the version of the bill that they wanted before scrambling to approve it later.

For the Democrats, it was a perfect example of why they have taken to calling the G.O.P. the “grand obstructionist party.” The Democrats send out daily tallies of the number of Republican filibusters, which the Democrats say will set a record.

It also explains why so little is getting done in Congress right now. With a crush of legislation pending ahead of the Christmas holiday recess, it should be one of the busiest times of the year.

In addition to holding up a spending deal and setting the terms on the alternative minimum tax, Senate Republicans blocked a major energy bill on Friday. Mr. Reid said Tuesday that he planned to remove a major component that the Republicans opposed in hopes of getting the bill approved.

The Republicans are not shy about their strategy, which they say is merely exercising the minority’s right to filibuster, which has existed since the earliest days of the Senate. Nor are they shy about standing with Mr. Bush, who now threatens almost daily to use his veto to back up the strategy.

But there are also risks. The latest New York Times/CBS News poll found that the stagnation in Congress has made an impression. Just 21 percent of Americans say they have a favorable view of Congress and 64 percent disapprove. And the two parties have been unyielding, calculating that voters will blame the other side.

For some lawmakers, especially those facing re-election, the danger is palpable.

“I am not seeing much common ground, meeting in the center,” said Senator Gordon H. Smith of Oregon, a Republican who is seeking a third term. “And if we don’t find that, the Senate will fail in its governing responsibilities.

“The thing that’s important to remember is that the Senate was structured to govern from the center, to find the common sense. There is little sense about this place right now.”

Democrats say the Republican stance, especially on spending, is reckless and aimed at shutting down the government.

Senator Charles E. Schumer of New York, who leads the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, insists that the more Republicans block Democrats in Congress, the more seats Democrats will win next year.

Republicans have to defend 23 Senate seats next year, nearly twice as many as Democrats, who have 12 to defend.

The Republicans, however, say their strategy will win.

“I think we are being consistent here against higher taxes, consistently against greater regulation, consistently against creating new causes of action in bill after bill after bill,” Mr. McConnell said. “It’s a positive message of our vision of America.

“We have a pretty good sense that the public has figured out they are not too happy with this new Congress.”

By the calculation of Mr. McConnell and other Republicans, voters will reward them for stopping the Democrats from doing all sorts of things that the Republicans view as foolish.

Aides to the Republican leadership said they hoped to supplement that message with an agenda that they plan to lay out early next year and that they said would show clear differences with the Democrats.

In the meantime, Mr. McConnell and the Republicans, with Mr. Bush’s support, effectively have a stranglehold on the Senate. That has in turn created bitterness between Democrats in the Senate and House, where Democrats have a larger majority and more leverage.

Mr. Reid met Tuesday afternoon with Speaker Nancy Pelosi of California as the Democrats continued to struggle to formulate an “omnibus” spending package that would bundle 11 appropriations bills and avoid a shutdown of government agencies.

Democrats last week pushed to add $11 billion for domestic spending, above what Mr. Bush had proposed, in exchange for money for the war effort, with no strings attached. But Republicans objected, and Mr. Bush threatened a veto.

Democrats then suggested cutting home-state projects, typically called earmarks, sought by lawmakers in both parties, but on Tuesday Mr. Reid seemed to back away from that idea.

Mr. McConnell, of course, said it was up to the Democrats to work things out, whether on spending or any other measure, in a way that Republicans would accept.

“They are in the majority,” he said. “But in the Senate, to do most things, it requires 60. That has been the case for a long time, and it will require working out our differences. So we’re prepared to work with them to finish up the session. But the bills will not be written exclusively by Democrats.”

CE Week #16: “New angles to political coverage”

James Klurfeld
December 11, 2007

I noticed with amusement recently that some colleagues who are out on the presidential campaign trail are voicing a complaint that echoed some of my own sentiments when I was on a similar assignment: They are hardly getting any opportunity to ask the candidates questions, let alone spend any quality time with them.

If anything, the reporters are saying, campaign organizations have become more controlling than ever. This complaint is especially true for the front-running candidates such as Sen. Hillary Clinton and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani. Reporters are lucky to get a press conference once a week, some said.

 

From a candidate’s point of view, this is how it should be. To the politicians, there is paid media – their television and radio commercials – and free media, the coverage they get from journalists. Paid media, they can totally control. Free media, they do their very best to manipulate. And limiting access to a candidate is part of that effort. This is especially true of the traveling press, as opposed to the local press, at least in part because those who are regularly following a candidate are quicker to see contradictions or changes in position and tend to be more critical.

But there is a new – changing is a more accurate word – element to political coverage these days that offers voters, and reporters, more and maybe better ways to find out who these people who want to run our country are and what they have done in the past. And it might mean that traveling with the candidate is not necessarily the best or only way to cover a campaign.

I’m talking about the explosion of Internet sites that are looking at every aspect of the campaign and the candidates.

At the most basic level, you can watch a debate or interview you missed by going online to a site such as YouTube or a television network’s site. You can also visit a candidate’s Web site and review his or her position papers or, of course, contribute your dollars to the campaign.

But what has really caught my interest this campaign cycle are the nonpartisan journalism sites that are quickly and thoroughly evaluating what the candidates say compared to what the facts or the historical record really are.

For instance, there is a site called PolitiFact.com, sponsored by the St. Petersburg Times and Congressional Quarterly, that runs a “Truth-O-Meter” that evaluates what candidates say on a true, mostly true, half true, barely true or false scale.

When Sen. Barack Obama says, “I do provide universal health care,” the meter says barely true, and you can click on to a spot that explains the difference between his health care plan and Clinton’s in some detail. Or when Sen. John McCain says that Giuliani never took part in the Iraq Study Group and was either fired or asked to leave, the meter says “True” and goes on to explain that the mayor missed the group’s first two meetings and never participated in its work.

At FactCheck.org, there’s a multimedia piece on “how to spot political ads powered only by hot air.” The story contains one commercial from Republican Mitt Romney and one from Democrat John Edwards and explains how each uses positive words and images that are largely devoid of substance. “Voters should beware,” it says.

There are many other sites illuminating the campaign in different ways, including Politico.com, RealClearPolitics.com and mainstream media Web sites such as those of Newsday, the New York Times or the Washington Post.

My point isn’t that it is not important for reporters to be following a campaign on a regular basis. Of course, it is. They have to keep pressing for more access to candidates. But 20 years ago, we were limited to what we knew about candidates by our local newspaper or the television networks.

The Internet represents a revolution in communications, for better or worse. For the news consumer, with a little bit of effort, it is definitely better.

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CE Week #15: “Poll Finds G.O.P. Field Isn’t Touching Voters”

By ADAM NAGOURNEY and MEGAN THEE

Three weeks before the Iowa caucuses, Republican voters across the country appear uninspired by their field of presidential candidates, with a vast majority saying they have not made a final decision about whom to support, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll.

Not one of the Republican candidates is viewed favorably by even half the Republican electorate, the poll found. And in a sign of the fluidity of the race, former Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas, who barely registered in early polls several months ago, is now locked in a tight contest nationally with Rudolph W. Giuliani and Mitt Romney.

By contrast, Democrats are happier with their field and more settled in their decisions. For all the problems Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton appears to be having holding off her rivals in Iowa and New Hampshire, she remains strong nationally, the poll found. Even after what her aides acknowledge have been two of the roughest months of her candidacy, she is viewed by Democrats as a far more electable presidential nominee than either Senator Barack Obama or John Edwards.

Not only do substantially more Democratic voters judge her to be ready for the presidency than believe Mr. Obama is prepared for the job, the poll found, but more Democrats also see Mrs. Clinton rather than Mr. Obama as someone who can unite the country.

The Republican and Democratic nominating contests, which begin with the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 3, are approaching at a time of anxiety and uncertainty. Americans, the poll found, think the economy is bad and getting worse. A vast majority think the country is heading in the wrong direction. More people cite the Iraq war as the most important issue facing the country than cite any other matter, and though 38 percent say the dispatch of extra troops to Iraq this year is working, a majority continue to say that undertaking the war was a mistake.

The candidates are running against a backdrop of a decidedly negative view of Washington. At 21 percent, the approval rating for this Democratic-led Congress is at a new low, reflecting the defection of independent voters, a potentially worrisome development for Democrats going into next year’s Congressional elections. President Bush’s approval rating is at 28 percent, one point above the lowest of his tenure.

The poll confirmed that former President Bill Clinton was an effective campaign weapon for his wife. Forty-four percent of Democratic voters say Mr. Clinton’s involvement will make them more likely to support her. In fact, about as many of Mrs. Clinton’s backers say they are supporting her because of her husband as say they are supporting her because of her own experience.

The poll found that just 1 percent said they might be swayed by the involvement of Oprah Winfrey, who has been campaigning for Mr. Obama in Iowa, South Carolina and New Hampshire the last three days, drawing huge crowds and allowing his campaign to identify new supporters.

The nationwide telephone poll, of 1,028 voters, was taken from last Wednesday through Sunday and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points. Within that group, 266 respondents identified themselves as likely Republican voters, and 417 as likely Democratic voters; the margin of sampling error among the Democrats is five percentage points, and among the Republicans six percentage points.

More than anything else, the poll underlines sharp differences between the Republican and Democratic electorate in how each views its candidates. Democratic voters, on the whole, see their candidates considerably more favorably than Republicans see theirs.

Mrs. Clinton is viewed favorably by 68 percent of Democrats, followed by Mr. Obama, viewed favorably by 54 percent. Mr. Edwards is viewed favorably by 36 percent.

On the Republican side, in contrast, Mr. Giuliani is viewed favorably most frequently, and that is by only 41 percent. Senator John McCain is viewed favorably by 37 percent, and Mr. Romney by 36 percent. Mr. Huckabee is viewed favorably by 30 percent, and 60 percent say they do not know enough about him to offer an opinion, suggesting that he may be vulnerable to the kind of attacks that his opponents have already been mounting against him.

Seventy-six percent of Republican respondents say they could still change their minds about whom to support, compared with 23 percent who say their decision is firm. Among Democrats, 59 percent say they may change their minds, as against 40 percent who say they have made their decision.

Libby Bass, 67, a Republican respondent from Woodbine, Ga., said in a follow-up interview that she was weary of hearing the Republicans argue with one another and that she was not ready to make a decision.

“They’re not telling us what their plans or goals are, they’re just mimicking each other,” Ms. Bass said. “I’m waiting to see if someone comes up with something that will change my mind.”

And there is no clear leader in the Republican race: Mr. Giuliani was the choice of 22 percent of respondents, Mr. Huckabee of 21 percent, and Mr. Romney of 16 percent. Mr. McCain and Fred D. Thompson each had 7 percent.

On the Democratic side, the leader, Mrs. Clinton, had the support of 44 percent of respondents, compared with 27 percent for Mr. Obama and just 11 percent for Mr. Edwards. Each of the other Democratic candidates drew 2 percent or lower.

A CBS News poll conducted in mid-October — which offered voters a choice of only Mrs. Clinton, Mr. Obama and Mr. Edwards — found Mrs. Clinton with 51 percent, Mr. Obama with 23 percent and Mr. Edwards with 13 percent.

At this point, national polls have little predictive value about what will occur in Iowa or New Hampshire, much less what will happen in a general election.

Recent polls in Iowa suggest that Mrs. Clinton, Mr. Obama and Mr. Edwards are in a tight race there. And in New Hampshire, whose voters cast their ballots only five days after the Iowa caucuses, polls indicate that Mrs. Clinton’s lead over Mr. Obama has dwindled.

In the national poll by The Times and CBS News, Republican voters said by 61 percent to 27 percent that they were looking for a presidential candidate who had the right experience rather than one with new ideas. Democrats were far more evenly divided on which of those two qualities was more important.

Mrs. Clinton has often spoken of a sharp contrast between her experience and Mr. Obama’s, while Mr. Obama has presented himself as a candidate who would bring change to Washington. By 56 percent to 34 percent, Mrs. Clinton’s backers said experience was more important than new ideas; Mr. Obama’s supporters, by 74 percent to 18 percent, said new ideas were more important.

On the Republican side, 36 percent of Republican voters said Mr. Giuliani, who in the past has supported gay rights and abortion rights, did not share their values, compared with 52 percent who said he did. In a Times/CBS News poll last month in Iowa — where Mr. Giuliani appears to be struggling, and where voters are clearly more focused on a contest that is fully engaged — 52 percent said he did not share their values.

The latest poll found that nationally, Mrs. Clinton continued to enjoy many advantages. By a large margin, she is viewed as most electable: 63 percent of Democratic voters said that of all the Democrats in the race, she would have the best chance in the general election, compared with 14 percent who named Mr. Obama and 10 percent for Mr. Edwards.

Mr. Obama’s argument that Mrs. Clinton would be a divisive figure who could not accomplish anything as president does not appear to be breaking through nationally: 65 percent of Democratic voters said she would be able to bring the country together; 54 percent said the same of Mr. Obama.

And in a reflection of what has been Mrs. Clinton’s central argument against Mr. Obama, 83 percent of Democratic respondents said she had the experience to serve as president, compared with 41 percent who said the same of Mr. Obama and 36 percent for Mr. Edwards.

Among Republicans, 43 percent viewed Mr. Giuliani as their most electable candidate, compared with 18 percent for Mr. Romney and 13 percent for Mr. Huckabee. Mr. Giuliani was also viewed more than any of his rivals as a candidate who will say what he believes rather than what he thinks audiences want to hear.

In a week when Mr. Romney delivered a speech intended to deal with concerns about his religion — he would be the nation’s first Mormon president — the poll found that little more than half of Republican respondents thought the United States was prepared to elect a Mormon to the Oval Office. That said, it also found that 45 percent were unable to say what Mr. Romney’s religion was.

Marjorie Connelly, Marina Stefan and Dalia Sussman contributed reporting.

Published in: on December 12, 2007 at 4:24 pm Comments (14)

CE Week #15: “A season for acceptance”

Leonard Pitts Jr.
Miami Herald
December 10, 2007

A few words before I go.

First off: Happy holidays. Merry Christmas, happy Kwanzaa, happy Hanukkah. Barring something unforeseen, we won’t talk again until the new year. Your humble correspondent is taking a few mental health days.

It probably isn’t your idea of an ideal holiday spot, but I plan to spend one of those days at the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum in Washington. It’s something I do most years around this time, though I find it difficult to explain why.

I guess if trees strung with light, malls crowded with shoppers and Christmas music filling the air impart a sense of festivity and rightness with the world, the shadowed halls of this monument to human hatred, human hubris and human resilience impart something I find equally valuable this time of year.

Call it a centeredness. Call it a somberness. Call it a sacredness.

If the holidays are about deliverance, those hours spent among the shoes of dead Jews and manifestoes of mass murder are a stark reminder of what we need deliverance from. Our own meanness. Our own smallness. The petty cruelties whispered into us by the worst angels of our nature.

Some of you will know that I had a very interesting spring and early summer. I wrote a column some people disliked and it led to harassment and death threats from self-styled neo-Nazis under the tired delusion that paleness of skin equals mental, moral or physical superiority. It was a striking, stinking reminder of the seemingly bottomless potential for sheer stupidity that lives within each of us. And by that I mean, each of us.

As Sly and the Family Stone once memorably sang: “There is a yellow one that won’t accept the black one that won’t accept the red one that won’t accept the white one.” That’s as succinct an encapsulation of the human condition as you’ll ever hear.

To walk in the Holocaust Museum is to be reminded of the logical, inevitable result of that refusal to accept, that insistence upon declaring that some racial, sexual, religious or cultural fraction of us must live outside the circle of human compassion. After all, there was nothing terribly new about what the Nazis did. Their sole innovation was to institutionalize hatred and mechanize murder so that 11 million people – 6 million of them Jews – could be most efficiently put to death.

But this idea that some of us are less than the rest of us, that some of us are roaches, vermin, viruses, parasites, infestations, beasts or subhumans to whom one owes no duty of human decency or commiseration, didn’t start with the Nazis. It is as old as Cain. As widespread as the common cold.

Yet we don’t learn, never learn. Dead Jews become dead Rwandans become dead Serbs become dead Darfurians, yet still some of us mouth pious hatreds with a smug certitude and offhand arrogance accessible only to the deeply, profoundly and utterly wrong.

I’m reminded of an older white lady who called me once to thank me for a column decrying some racial insult. She had a grandmother voice, a voice that sounded like cookies in the oven smell and she wanted me to know she admired black people, supported black people. Then she added in a conspiratorial whisper, “It’s the Jew boys I can’t stand.” Because everybody is sure their own hatreds are just.

We’ve got to live together.

Sly Stone sang that, too, in his song. If that seems, almost 40 years later, a faded hope, it is, nevertheless, a hope, and one you clutch instinctively as shrunken Jews stare out from photos on a wall, across a gulf of 60 years. A reminder. A warning. A testimony.

And meantime, somewhere far away, the trees are filled with light, the air is laced with hymns of joy.

Published in: on December 10, 2007 at 5:16 pm Comments (35)

CE Week #15: “The new face of Guantanamo”

David Sarasohn
Portland Oregonian
December 10, 2007

This is what passes, these days, for good news in the massive constitutional and international public relations fiasco that is the U.S. prison camp at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.

Shane Kadidal, of the Guantanamo project at the Center for Constitutional Rights, representing prisoners, recently told the Financial Times: “The medieval physical brutality has more or less been cleared up in the wake of the Abu Ghraib scandal.”

On that reassuring note, last week the Supreme Court heard arguments on the legal morass of Guantanamo and the position of the Bush administration and the previous Congress that it is none of the business of the U.S. court system. The government maintains that the current system for resolving the cases of the inmates – a military tribunal structure that was invented on the spot and regularly breaks down like a ‘56 Studebaker – works just fine and that it shouldn’t matter to the Supreme Court if it doesn’t.

Currently, there are 305 prisoners at Guantanamo, with 15 defined as “high-value detainees.” Former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld famously defined all the prisoners as “the worst of the worst,” but we keep releasing them by the dozen and the population is now about half what it once was.

Originally, the administration maintained that no judicial processes were required, that it could hold prisoners for as long as it wanted. In 2004, the Supreme Court ruled that it didn’t work that way, that the prisoners had to have some legal recourse.

In response, the administration set up the military commissions, and Congress passed the Military Commissions Act, seeking to bar U.S. courts from the cases. So far, the Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia has agreed, but nobody bars the Supreme Court when it doesn’t want to be barred. So the court, or at least five members of it, could consider the workings of the system set up in the court’s place. In the government’s brief, U.S. Solicitor General Paul Clement assured the justices: “The detainees now enjoy greater procedural protections and statutory rights to challenge their wartime detentions than any other captured enemy combatants in the history of war.”

But even without the “medieval physical brutality,” prisoners can have limited or no access to the charges, evidence or witnesses against them; evidence gathered from torture is admitted; and military authorities have been known to make it clear what verdict they expect. Besides, as Rumsfeld once explained, “Even in a case where an enemy combatant might be acquitted, the United States would be irresponsible not to continue to detain them until the conflict is over.”

Aside from all that, it’s a model system.

“I have one client who was held down there on the basis of an allegation that, two years after he went to Guantanamo, an alias of his name appeared on a computer’s hard drive of somebody who might have been associated with al-Qaida,” Tom Wilner, a partner at a Wall Street law firm, told National Public Radio.

“He asked, ‘Well, I don’t have any aliases. What’s the alias?’ They said, ‘We can’t tell you. It’s classified.’ He said, ‘Where was the computer, whose was it?’ ‘Can’t tell you. It’s classified.’ ‘When was this?’ ‘Can’t tell you. It’s classified.’ ”

Navy Lt. Cmdr. Charles D. Swift, assigned as a defense attorney, told the Senate Judiciary Committee last year, “The few rules that did exist to govern commission proceedings were subject to constant revision.” Swift quoted a prosecutor, Air Force Capt. John Carr, as saying the system was “a half-hearted and disorganized effort by a skeleton group of relatively inexperienced attorneys to prosecute fairly low-level accused in a process that appears to be rigged.”

Still, the government maintains, this is no concern of the Supreme Court because Guantanamo is not on U.S. territory. It’s under Cuban sovereignty – although if Fidel Castro showed up one day and asked for the keys, we’d have to tell him he misunderstood.

Still, Seth Waxman, attorney for the prisoners, told the justices, “the United States exercises – quote – ‘complete jurisdiction and control over this base.’ No other law applies. If our law doesn’t apply, it’s a law-free zone.”

Attempting to recover its considerable lost ground in the world’s opinion, the United States might be looking for a new public image.

The one it wants probably isn’t “law-free zone.”

CE Week #15: “Attention Women of Iowa: Oprah!!!”

By Jay Newton-Small/Des Moines

The first person to arrive outside Des Moines’ HyVee Center on Saturday morning — a mere seven hours before Oprah Winfrey would take the stage — was Heather Spurlin. Dressed for a long wait in snowy 12-degree weather, Spurlin, 37, is exactly the kind of person Barack Obama hoped Oprah would draw: a woman voter who knows what she’s doing everyday at 4pm, but isn’t sure who she’ll support on Jan. 3. “Oprah’s so personable and funny,” said Spurlin, who’s never caucused before but participated in an Obama campaign training session in order to get her ticket. “I hope to caucus this time. Right now I’m torn between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, though today may help me make up my mind.”

Obama’s Oprah offensive was calibrated not just to get women’s support — though of course, that would be nice — but to get Iowa’s women to pay attention to the race full stop. In 2004, just 66,690 of 340,241 female registered Democrats in Iowa caucused. Even a few thousand more could make a difference; sure enough, with Oprah as a sweetener, 1,385 people (no gender statistics were available) worked four-hour volunteer shifts for Obama in order to qualify for a ticket to Winfrey’s appearance. (The campaign distributed a total of 12,000 tickets to supporters with another 11,000 given away online.)

Obama was making gains with Iowa women even before Oprah’s arrival — a November Des Moines Register poll showed Obama topping Hillary Clinton with Iowa women for the first time, with her 31% to Clinton’s 26% — and Winfrey’s appearance certainly kept up the momentum. When she took the stage in a purple velvet suit, the mostly-female crowd exploded in joy. Many women were moved to tears. “Iowa — Hellloo! Hellloo!” yelled Winfrey. “Oh my goodness. At last, I’m here!”

Other than a bit of campaign sniping between America’s two most influential women — Clinton, in Des Moines on Friday: “Change is just a word if you don’t have the experience to back it up.” Winfrey, defending Obama Saturday: “We recognize that the amount of time you spend in Washington means nothing unless your accountable for the judgments you made at the time you had them.” — the weekend was gentle and apolitical. Winfrey tried to motivate the HyVee crowd, but she didn’t talk policy so much as treat Obama like a favorite book; she raved about how much he moved her, and told her friends to check him out. Obama stood by in a black suit and white shirt with no tie, soaking it all in before giving a version of his standard 30-minute stump speech.

The real affect of Oprah on Iowa won’t be known until the caucus, but in the short term her cameo appeared to achieve what the Obama campaign hoped it would. “Obama’s got some really good ideas,” said Spurlin at the end of the rally. “But then so does Hillary, and I liked her husband a lot.” Sure enough, Bill Clinton will be in Des Moines on Monday, and Spurlin may go see him as well. If nothing else, Des Moines is drawing the A-List.

Published in: on December 9, 2007 at 2:56 pm Comments (23)

CE Week #15: “Immigration Boils Over”

By Joe Klein

A few days after Thanksgiving, I asked Mike Huckabee what had surprised him about voters over the past six months of campaigning. “The intensity of the immigration issue,” he said immediately, and then added, “I honestly don’t know why it’s gotten so hot.” Huckabee gets points for candor: most of the presidential candidates I’ve spoken with in recent months feel the same way but aren’t about to say so. It is difficult to spend a day on the trail and not see the anger explode.

This is especially true in the Republican Party. John McCain, the sponsor of immigration-reform legislation, has been a target. During a recent town-hall meeting in Hopkinton, N.H., a heavily muscled young man with closely cropped hair began to shout about “open borders” as the issue “that will destroy this country … You can’t imagine the amount of anger your average European Christian American feels about the multicultural tower of babble.” He raised the possibility of “civil war.” McCain usually turns warrior when confronted with such blatant racism, but sensing the heat in the room, he held his fire this time, calmly saying “I will do everything in my power to secure our borders … But on the larger issue you raise, I believe that people who have come here [legally] from other countries … are our greatest strength.”

There are signs of festering intolerance even among Democratic audiences, noticeably in Iowa, which has seen a surge of Latino immigration in recent years. The Democratic candidates are uniformly in favor of comprehensive immigration reform, including a path to citizenship for those who have entered the country illegally. But they receive sharp–pointed–applause when they say illegals should “have to speak English” before becoming citizens. When I asked Hillary Clinton about that, she said she’d noticed it too and added, “During the 1990s, I cannot remember being asked about immigration … Why? Because the economy was working … And average Americans didn’t have to go around looking for someone to blame.”

Huckabee, who is making gains among working-class conservatives, came to the same conclusion. “There’s a lot of underlying [economic] anxiety,” he told me. “People are working harder and not getting ahead. There is a disconnect between the insider establishment in the country–and in my party–and the middle class about this. There’s a greater divide between the top and bottom than ever before. And worse, people on the bottom are not sure they can get out of the bottom. That’s a recipe for real trouble. That’s the stuff out of which revolutions are born.”

Huckabee is likely to suffer for refusing to demagogue immigration. He is already in trouble for offering college scholarships to deserving children of illegal immigrants in Arkansas. “We never should grind our heel in the face of a child,” he has said. But if a nativist revolt is brewing, his fellow Republicans are handing out the pitchforks. Peripheral candidates like Tom Tancredo and Duncan Hunter set the slime flowing in the presidential campaign. The theme was soon picked up by Mitt Romney, who seems incapable of finding an issue where integrity trumps expediency. Romney has made illegal immigration the target of recent campaign ads. He has used the issue as a cudgel against Rudy Giuliani (a passionately pro-immigrant mayor trying to sound like a tough guy now), even though Romney reportedly employed illegal workers to do his gardening and didn’t seem concerned about the issue when he was Governor of Massachusetts–until he decided to run for President.

Earlier in the year, I asked Romney if he thought illegal immigration was a net plus for the economy. He said, “I’m not sure.” To which one can only say, Ha ha ha. A recent study of Arkansas, conducted by the nonpartisan Urban Institute, estimated that immigrants there pay more in Social Security and sales taxes than they cost in social services like health care and education. That doesn’t begin to take into account the economic impact of the hard work and entrepreneurial energy that illegal immigrants bring to the society. To be sure, there is a need for greater border security in a time of terrorism. But any candidate who claims to be able to shut down the border simply isn’t telling the truth. And any candidate who would run for the presidency by cynically exploiting fears born of economic anxiety, ignorance or plain old “European American” racism doesn’t deserve to be elected.

Correction: I was wrong to write last week that the House Democratic version of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) would require a court approval of individual foreign surveillance targets. The bill does not explicitly say that. Republicans believe it can be interpreted that way, but Democrats don’t. To read the disputed section of the bill, go to time.com/fisa

time.com/swampland

CE Week #15: “Highway To Hell?”

 

Ron Paul’s worked up about U.S. sovereignty.

By Gretel C. Kovach

NEWSWEEK

Updated: 3:37 PM ET Dec 1, 2007

Ron Paul wants you to be scared. There’s a conspiracy in the land—what he calls a “conspiracy of ideas”—to give up America’s sovereignty. It’s a shadowy scheme that begins with the NAFTA “superhighway,” a road as wide as several football fields that will link Mexico, the United States and Canada. “They don’t talk about it and they might not admit it,” Paul said at the CNN-YouTube presidential debate last week. He didn’t say exactly who “they” are, but perhaps one can guess. “They’re planning on [taking] millions of acres … by eminent domain,” warned the prickly libertarian. But elected government officials aren’t acting alone. There’s “an unholy alliance of foreign consortiums and officials from several governments” pushing the idea, Paul wrote in October 2006. “The ultimate goal is not simply a superhighway, but an integrated North American Union—complete with a currency, a cross-national bureaucracy, and virtually borderless travel within the Union.”

Only it’s not true. The main purveyor of this broad conspiracy theory is Jerome Corsi, coauthor of “Unfit for Command,” the book that helped Swift Boat John Kerry’s presidential ambitions. His latest offering is “The Late Great U.S.A.: The Coming Merger With Mexico and Canada,” which became a best seller on The New York Times’s business list this summer. Corsi plays on growing nationalist fears. He sees a scenario in which a North American Union is born and shares a currency, the “amero.” Even some right-wing standard-bearers regard the fears as over-blown. Jed Babbin, editor of the conservative newspaper Human Events, says: “I guess there are people who believe in [the plan for a North American Union]. But there are people who believe in Bigfoot.” “The evidence is out there,” says Corsi.

Like all good conspiracies, the NAFTA superhighway is a strange stew of fact and fiction, fired by paranoia. There is a big road planned. It’s called the Trans-Texas Corridor. The idea was unveiled in 2002 by GOP Gov. Rick Perry. And it’s true the corridor was originally designed to be 1,200 feet wide, including a highway for vehicles, railway lines, petroleum pipes, electricity and water lines and broadband fiber optics. (It’s since been scaled back slightly.) A considerable swath of Texas land, perhaps as much as a half-million acres, will be taken by eminent domain.

It’s also true that more than one organization wants to improve commerce between North American countries. The “unholy alliance” Paul speaks of is the Security and Prosperity Partnership of North America (SPP). It was launched in 2005 by the heads of state of the United States, Mexico and Canada. Part of the SPP mandate is to increase security cooperation against terror threats. It also aims to improve trade. But much of the home page of the SPP Web site is devoted to “Myth vs. Fact.” It dispels tales about a “secret plan” to build a superhighway.

Texas officials are still trying to convince locals their $180 billion idea was not hatched to undermine American sovereignty. Controversy stalled the project for several years, but now construction could begin in 2009. Perry has had to explain repeatedly that no federal funds will be used to build the project, and that Texas turned to private firms to finance the road because they could build it quickly without taxpayer money. (The contractor, Cintra-Zachry, is a Spanish-Texan consortium that expects to earn a profit by collecting tolls. Critics, even those who don’t see a conspiracy, say the state is mortgaging its infrastructure to foreign investors.) Texas Transportation Commissioner Ric Williamson says he’s startled by superhighway fears. He tells NEWSWEEK he had never heard of a North American Union until people started badgering him about it. “They say, ‘Is this part of the NAU and the amero?’ … And I say, ‘What the hell are you talking about?’ ”

National politicians are facing similar questions. According to press reports, campaign aides have said that anxieties about the supposed scheme are the second most popular topic Mitt Romney is asked about in New Hampshire. Rudy Giuliani, whose law firm represents Cintra, has also taken questions about it. Ordinary people may be taking the conspiracy seriously because mainstream news organizations—and countless blogs—have. CNN newscaster Lou Dobbs, a trade protectionist, has featured the superhighway on his show as if it were a fact.

Corsi is only too happy to stir things up. When the Eagle Forum, a conservative association, presented him with an award in September for “courage and leadership in protecting America’s sovereignty,” Corsi offered a warning: President Bush’s supposed determination to force North American integration, he told the audience, could cost the GOP the 2008 presidential election. Corsi may have a conspiratorial bent. But he sure knows how to spin stories that shake up an election—and at least one candidate seems happy to help him.

URL: http://www.newsweek.com/id/73372

Published in: on at 2:43 pm Comments (3)

CE Week #15: “Dubuque’s Got the ‘Joe Mo’!”

Dubuque’s Got the ‘Joe Mo’!

Should Clinton lose Iowa, the door might open for second-tier candidates to start getting competitive.

By Jonathan Alter

NEWSWEEK

Updated: 3:40 PM ET Dec 1, 2007

“America is still ready for a white male!” an overcaffeinated, white female Iowan shouted at me after a Joe Biden event in Mason City, Iowa, last week. There was nothing racist or sexist in her tone, merely zealous support for her man and the firm conviction that a pale male is still the Democrats’ best bet to recapture the White House. For months, the strongest white boy in the campaign has been John Edwards, who started organizing in Iowa in 2003 and never stopped. Edwards may yet prevail; Iowa is once again as fluid as ethanol. But if he doesn’t win the Jan. 3 caucuses—he’s been steadily losing altitude since early summer—he says he’ll drop out. That might leave a two-person race between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, but I doubt it.

Obama is dealing the hot hand in Iowa right now. Caucus-goers pay less attention to debates in far-off places than to events at home. The pivotal Nov. 10 Jefferson-Jackson Day Dinner (the same event where John Kerry got his mojo in 2004) brought 9,000 screaming Democrats to Des Moines in a test of organizational strength won handily by Obama. Then he salvaged the otherwise stupefying evening with an inspirational closing speech in which he addressed why he doesn’t want to wait a few years by invoking what Martin Luther King Jr. called “the fierce urgency of now.”

If Clinton wasn’t worried about Obama in Iowa, she wouldn’t be bashing him every chance she gets. Should she lose there, the door might open for a second-tier candidate to get competitive. You think I’m crazy? That’s what they said when I wrote about Mike Huckabee in August.

If Clinton and Obama were arguing about anything other than experience, it wouldn’t be possible for Biden, Chris Dodd or Bill Richardson to get the slightest traction, even with a better-than-expected finish. But by staking her claim on her preparation for the White House, Clinton has kicked off a fuller discussion on what constitutes real qualifications. Experience usually counts for nothing in presidential politics (remember graybeards like Scoop Jackson, Richard Lugar and Dick Gephardt going nowhere?), but this time a “double E” candidate—experience and electability—could at least become a factor.

After Iowa, the surviving white guy in a shrunken field will get a chance to stress his record, especially when the usual “buyers’ remorse” sets in about the front runner. On foreign policy, Biden persuaded a reluctant President Clinton to intervene militarily in Bosnia, which saved thousands of lives at little cost. Dodd authored the Central American peace plan in the 1980s that won a Nobel Prize for Costa Rican President Oscar Arias. Richardson struck advantageous deals with dictators on behalf of the Clinton administration. By contrast, Hillary negotiated nothing and was present at no major meetings on foreign policy and national security after 1994. She reviewed some presidential speeches (including the one announcing the bombing of terrorist camps crafted in an awkward husband-and-wife session on Martha’s Vineyard just after President Clinton confessed to the Monica Lewinsky scandal in 1998), gave an important address at a Beijing conference on women and traveled to 80 countries as a good-will ambassador. But these contributions are more reminiscent of Eleanor Roosevelt than, say, Al Gore.

On domestic policy, Hillary was essentially sidelined after her disastrous 1994 health-care plan. The State Children’s Health Insurance Program she touts was actually something the Clinton administration stalled on until pressured by Ted Kennedy and Dodd, who also led the seven-year fight for the Family and Medical Leave Act. The Clinton crime bill that included 100,000 new cops was Biden’s legislation, and Bob Rubin, while now endorsing Hillary, grumbled about her judgment and never let her in on economic policy when he was Treasury secretary. Clinton was still the most influential First Lady in history, and she has a lot more familiarity with the upper reaches of government than Obama. But if her inevitability is destroyed in Iowa, her “experience” might not be much help.

Second-tier candidates often get a second wind. Jerry Brown beat Jimmy Carter in a slew of late primaries in 1976, and threw a little scare into Bill Clinton by winning Connecticut in 1992. The most plausible long shot this time is Biden, who has done well (and controlled his mouth) in recent debates and generated a trace of “Joe Mo” in Dubuque and a few other pockets in Iowa. His problem is organization. Dodd has twice as many paid staffers on the ground as Biden, though he hasn’t connected as well on the stump. Richardson’s recent TV ads didn’t light a fuse. But should one of them score in the Dec. 13 Des Moines Register debate (or, better yet, win the paper’s endorsement), he could break the 15 percent “viability” threshold in enough caucuses to stay in the race.

Voters usually prefer youth and energy to wisdom and experience. Every Democratic president since James Buchanan has taken office by 60, with all but two 55 or younger. Obama at 46 is closer to the norm than Biden at 65, Dodd at 63 or Richardson and Clinton at 60. The latter resemble seasoned senators Stuart Symington, Hubert Humphrey and Lyndon Johnson, who lost the 1960 primaries to a lightly regarded 42-year-old colleague named John F. Kennedy. But should Iowa yield a surging Obama and a wounded Clinton, voters will likely give a second look to someone else.

URL: http://www.newsweek.com/id/73370

Published in: on at 2:41 pm Comments (0)

CE Week #15: “Putting On Their Game Faces”

 

Democratic voters, stung by crushing defeats in 2000 and 2004, may just want a candidate who can win. How Obama and Clinton are each making the case.

By Richard Wolffe

NEWSWEEK

Updated: 3:31 PM ET Dec 1, 2007

One of the most common complaints about the too-long, too-petty race for the White House is that it’s all about personalities, not enough about issues. But what’s a candidate to do if the issues aren’t really an issue? That’s just the problem Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, locked in verbal combat these last few weeks, are now confronting in the time remaining before the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 3. Obama and Clinton have spent weeks trading off between first and second place in Iowa polls and are now putting nearly all of their efforts into exploiting each other’s vulnerabilities. Yet if the campaign for the Democratic nomination were really a contest of who had the best ideas for the country, voters would have a tough time choosing between the two front runners.

Clinton, for example, believes the United States should get its troops out of Iraq as soon as possible, but warns that leaving too quickly isn’t practical. So does Obama. Obama wants to roll back President Bush’s tax cuts for the wealthy. So does Clinton. Both Clinton and Obama would force automakers to build more-fuel-efficient cars. They do tussle over details: he would consider increasing the income cap on Social Security taxes; she won’t say what she’d do. She would use U.S. troops in Iraq to ward off Iran; he wouldn’t. But these differences are more quibbles than clashes. Troubled by a tightening in the polls, the Clinton camp spent last week trying to find insulting things to say about Obama’s health-care plan. Both campaigns say they want universal coverage, but can’t agree on what that means—or how you get there.

Instead, Clinton and Obama have tried to differentiate themselves by making the race about something else: which one of them can win. For Democrats still frustrated by presidential losses in 2000 and 2004, that’s no small thing. Many party activists fear that an unpopular war, worries about the economy and Bush fatigue alone won’t be enough for Democrats to regain the White House, especially if, like John Kerry, their candidate turns out to be no match for the GOP’s disciplined attack machine. In any election argument among Democrats, the elusive question of “electability” is sure to come up.

Clinton and Obama are ready with different answers. The senator from New York has made a great display of her intention to grind up any Republican who dares stand in her way. At last month’s Jefferson-Jackson Day dinner in Des Moines, the Democratic contenders delivered rousing speeches to an arena packed with party loyalists. To cheers, Clinton promised her campaign would be “turning up the heat on the Republicans.”

Clinton spokesman Jay Carson says she is the only Democrat who is tough enough to handle the nastiness of the coming campaign. “There’s no one in the party who has taken more heat and won more fights with Republicans,” he says. The Clinton camp continues to belittle Obama as inexperienced. But more recently, a new line of attack has emerged: that the Illinois senator, with his grand talk of reaching out to the other side, is too genteel to do what it takes to win. “Finding common ground is important,” Carson says, “but knowing how to stand your ground is vitally important because they’ll eat you alive.” A Clinton strategist, who declined to be named bad-mouthing another Democrat, is less diplomatic. “What would [the Republicans] do to Obama? Nobody has thought about that yet,” this operative says. “We have. He would be snack food.”

It’s an old campaign trick: take your opponent’s biggest strength—in Obama’s case, his politics of inclusion—and portray it as a weakness. Obama is doing the same to Clinton. His camp labels her “toughness” as so divisive that disenchanted Bush voters, and even many Democrats, will turn away from her. “When 50 percent of the people in the country say they won’t vote for her,” says Obama’s campaign manager David Plouffe, “her ability to attract independents and moderate Republicans is very limited.”

At the Jefferson-Jackson dinner, Obama brought many Clinton supporters to their feet by promising to end the warfare between Democrats and Republicans. “I don’t want to pit Red America against Blue America,” he said. “I want to be the president of the United States of America.” Even when Obama vowed to take Republicans “head-on” if they begin “fear-mongering,” he was quick to get beyond simple GOP-bashing and sound a broader theme appealing to voters fatigued with both parties. “I believe the American people are tired of fear and of distractions,” he said.

Obama has had modest success in winning over Republicans. The campaign boasts that 268 registered Republicans in Iowa and 68 in New Hampshire had broken with the party and were supporting Obama. His camp puts these crossover supporters in touch with each other through informal “Republicans for Obama” e-mail groups, in hopes that they will persuade family and friends to join them.

But what about the Clinton camp’s charge that Obama, for all his outreach, wouldn’t hold up to GOP attacks? Obama’s aides say he has already survived something more formidable: Clinton’s attacks. “They think they are the toughest campaign on the block,” says Plouffe. “And we seem to be handling them just fine.”

At the same time, Clinton, concerned about coming across as too tough, has begun to promote her softer side—trying to show that when she isn’t body-slamming Republicans, she, too, is trying to win them over. “The theory of Hillary is much more polarizing than the reality of Hillary,” says Bill Galston, a former Bill Clinton policy adviser now with the Brookings Institution. “She’s demonstrated that in the Senate.” When she first ran for the Senate, her aides advised her to avoid campaigning in conservative upstate New York, which they considered a waste of time. Instead, she ran hard and cleaned up in solid GOP districts. NEWSWEEK has learned that Bill Clinton has urged his wife to play up that appeal with TV ads quoting conservatives who voted for Hillary. Clinton’s aides have decided this isn’t the time for such an ad.

Voters still haven’t figured out whom they want to win. Polls paint a confusing picture. Among Democrats nationwide, Clinton holds a big lead over Obama and is still perceived as the candidate most likely to win in November. But that advantage evaporates when the two are matched up against leading Republicans. In surveys of voters from both parties, Clinton has a narrow, four-point lead over Rudy Giuliani in a recent NEWSWEEK POLL; Obama has a three-point lead. But against other Republicans, Obama comes out ahead, leading Mitt Romney by 16 and Fred Thompson by 13, compared with four points for Clinton in both scenarios.

One name rarely figures in the Obama and Clinton strategy: John Edwards. Both campaigns seem to believe his effort will fade. “I don’t spend a lot of time thinking about Edwards,” a Clinton adviser, who didn’t want to be named discussing strategy, says. That could be a mistake. Edwards, who came in second in Iowa in 2004, is polling a close third in the state. By focusing on each other, Obama and Clinton risk missing a late Edwards surge that could remake the conventional wisdom of who looks like a winner. After all, it’s tough to argue you’re “electable” if your name isn’t on the ballot in November.

URL: http://www.newsweek.com/id/73369

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CE Week #15: “Selective Memories”

 

Master spinners Bill Clinton and Karl Rove try to rewrite the roles they played in the run-up to war.

By Michael Isikoff

NEWSWEEK

Updated: 3:22 PM ET Dec 1, 2007

With the recent tapering off in U.S. casualties, the war in Iraq has receded—for now—as the dominant issue in Washington. But the battle over the war’s origins is as intense as ever. Just in the last few weeks, two of the master spinners in American politics—Bill Clinton and Karl Rove—have offered novel accounts of events leading up to the U.S. invasion in March 2003. The problem is that their new versions are hard to square with the historical record.

Clinton got the most attention last week when he claimed, while campaigning for his wife in Iowa, that he “opposed Iraq from the beginning.” That came as a surprise to Hillary Mann Leverett, a former National Security Council staffer who told The Washington Post that the former president had been briefed by the White House about war plans in early 2003; he was so supportive, according to Leverett, that one top aide, Elliott Abrams, came back “literally glowing and boasting that ‘we have Clinton’s support’.” Jay Carson, a Clinton spokesman, insisted the former president had merely listened to a “pro forma technical briefing.” But whatever he did or didn’t say in private, Clinton barely voiced a word of criticism in public. “I don’t think you can criticize the president for trying to act on the belief that they have a substantial amount of chemical and biological stock,” he said in an April 16, 2003, speech. One month later, at a college commencement speech in Mississippi, he said: “I supported the president when he asked for authority to stand up against weapons of mass destruction in Iraq.” (Carson says Clinton’s position was “always” to avoid military action before weapons inspectors had finished their job.)

Rove’s revisionism is, if anything, even more farfetched. In an hourlong Nov. 21 interview with Charlie Rose, the former presidential strategist (and now an occasional NEWSWEEK commentator) claimed that “one of the untold stories about the war” is that the White House wasn’t pushing Congress to pass a resolution authorizing military action before the 2002 midterm elections. “The administration was opposed to voting on it in the fall of 2002,” Rove said. “We didn’t think it belonged within the confines of the election. We thought it made it too political.”

Rove’s comments seem to fly in the face of White House statements demanding a quick vote to deal with what President Bush called a threat of “unique urgency.” Bush called congressional leaders to a meeting on Sept. 4 where, according to Tom Daschle, the then Senate majority leader, the president made clear he wanted Congress to vote before it adjourned. (Daschle says he even asked, “Why the rush?”) Rove “has either a very bad memory or he’s lying,” says Daschle. Two weeks later the White House sent a draft resolution to the Hill, and began pushing aggressively for a vote. “I appreciate the fact that the leadership recognizes we’ve got to move before the elections,” Bush said on Sept. 19.

All this was no accident: according to “Hubris: The Inside Story of Spin, Scandal and the Selling of the Iraq War” (cowritten by the author of this article and journalist David Corn), forcing a vote before the election was exactly the point. A top White House aide at the time, who asked not to be identified talking about internal strategy sessions, explained that the president’s advisers wanted to use the upcoming election to pressure skeptical Democrats to back the president—or face being portrayed as soft on national security. “The election was the anvil and the president was the hammer,” the aide said.

When Bush launched his lobbying campaign in early September, top Democrats like Daschle and the then House Minority Whip Nancy Pelosi expressed concerns that Congress was being stampeded into voting without having time to evaluate the intelligence about Iraqi WMD. “I know of no information that would suggest the threat is so imminent that we have to do it in October,” Pelosi was quoted as saying in a Sept. 11, 2002, Los Angeles Times story. In a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing, Democratic chairman Joe Biden urged Bush to follow the path taken by his father during the run-up to the 1991 Persian Gulf War and put off a vote until after the elections—a plea that Biden says got strong “pushback” from the White House. But it is also true that by late September, some Democratic leaders, notably the then House Minority Leader Dick Gephardt, supported a quick vote in order to make Iraq less of an issue in the fall campaign.

Rove’s comments were greeted with more than a little skepticism. “That is a complete fabrication,” says Nebraska GOP Sen. Chuck Hagel, who recalls urging White House officials to put off the vote. Former Bush counselor Dan Bartlett says, “This is the first time I’ve ever heard Karl say that.” Rove told NEWSWEEK he did not want to say any more on the record. At least for now. As he told Charlie Rose, he’s saving his version of events for his upcoming memoirs.

URL: http://www.newsweek.com/id/73346

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CE Week #15: “Pendulum swings to domestic issues”

James P. Pinkerton
Newsday
December 8, 2007

The latest National Intelligence Estimate on Iran – suggesting that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s government is not an imminent nuclear threat – will undercut some of the tough-talking foreign policy positions staked out by most of the Republican presidential candidates. Still, Democrats must beware, because the American people, inclined toward hawkishness since Sept. 11, will be suspicious of too-eager doves.

In the meantime, the seeming stand-down with Iran brings back memories of past presidential elections, won and lost.

I worked for George H.W. Bush in both his successful 1988 election campaign and his unsuccessful 1992 re-election campaign – and what a difference the passage of four years made.

In ‘88, the Cold War was obviously winding down, but plenty of voters still worried, rightly, about the Soviet Union. During that campaign I was proud to watch and listen as then-Vice President Bush answered national security questions from reporters and from citizens. His calmness and precision made me feel safe, and, more to the point, it made the voters feel safe. Bush could be trusted near “The Button.”

Over the next four years of the Bush presidency, the Berlin Wall came down and the USSR broke up. No more Red Menace. In addition, Bush brilliantly managed Desert Storm in 1990-91; he was skillful enough to assemble an international coalition to expel Saddam Hussein from Kuwait, but he was wise enough not to chase him all the way to Baghdad. The result: America was peacefully supreme by 1992.

Alas, the voters did not reward Bush in 1992, because they had moved over to domestic concerns, where Bush was considerably weaker. In that bread-and-butter election it didn’t matter that the challengers, Democrat Bill Clinton and independent Ross Perot, didn’t have any foreign policy-making experience, or that Perot was, frankly, eccentric. Cold War concerns about readiness and steadiness had evaporated.

So paradoxically, if Bush had been less successful in foreign policy – if the Cold War had continued, if the Kuwait crisis had somehow stretched out – the 41st president would have been better able to argue, “Re-elect me, because you need someone with experience to keep an eye on the Russian bear, and that nogoodnik Saddam Hussein.”

Instead, Bush suffered the same fate as Winston Churchill back in 1945: Win the war, lose the next election, as the voters look to the future, not the past.

And, of course, in the next two elections, 1996 and 2000, forei gn policy was barely an issue. Then came Sept. 11, and once again a Republican president named Bush held the national security high cards. The anti-terror hand worked well for him in his 2004 re-election, although not so well in the 2006 midterms.

But now, with Iraq in post-surge remission and Iran seemingly off the table – and assuming that nuclear-armed Pakistan doesn’t come completely unglued – the 2008 election is likely to share the same let’s-focus-on-the-home-front mind-set. Indeed, the next presidential election might be a lot like 1992. And that’s bad for the GOP.

Yet, at the same time, the Democrats are not immune from falling into losing patterns, either. The Democratic leadership in Congress, for example, seems heavily invested in the proposition that we have “lost” the war in Iraq. It would be foolish to say “mission accomplished,” and yet the American people don’t want to lose.

So the sense that the Democrats are defeatist could be toxic to donkeys next year. That was the bleak fate of the party’s Civil War-era nominee, George McClellan, back in the 1864 presidential election. And it happened also to George McGovern in the Vietnam election of 1972.

Oh, one last thing: Who really thinks, down deep, that Iran is not actively pursuing nuclear weapons? We don’t know exactly when the Iranians will get The Bomb, but then, of course, we never do. The Soviets took us by surprise when they tested their nuke in 1949.

Published in: on December 8, 2007 at 10:15 am Comments (0)

CE Week #15: “Romney showed us a mirror”

Kathleen Parker
Orlando Sentinel
December 8, 2007

Voters may not know any more about Mormonism than they did before Mitt Romney’s faith speech on Thursday, but they surely know more about what it means to be an American.

Romney’s much-anticipated address from the George H.W. Bush library at Texas A&M reminded Americans of some fundamental truths that often get lost in the guerrilla warfare of presidential politics.

He made two important points clear: Freedom and religious liberty are inextricably linked. And, though his religion informs his life, leaders of his church will not inform his decisions as president.

That second statement is essentially a reiteration of John F. Kennedy’s speech nearly 50 years ago when he had to assuage voters’ fears that he would be taking orders from the pope. Like Kennedy, Romney said his commitment is to the rule of law and the Constitution.

If Kennedy’s speech was an important landmark in American political history, Romney’s was surpassing. With heartfelt humility and poetic eloquence, he tracked the nation’s struggle with and for freedom.

He held up a mirror and, for the first time in a long while, Americans did not have to avert their gaze. They could see themselves reflected and be both proud and humbled by their country’s unique beauty.

That may be the most valuable result of Romney’s speech. He raised the bar by focusing on broad principles of religious freedom, rather than on the small details of doctrinal differences. In the process, he elevated everyone – even those not-so-deserving.

Disappointing many, no doubt, Romney steered clear of the details of Mormon belief and deprived the boxers-or-briefs crowd an answer to the Mormon undergarment question. This was smart for Romney, but it was also a gift to the American people – a gesture of mutual respect.

Where does one begin to defend one’s religious faith, anyway? And where does anyone draw the line? No religion can bear close scrutiny if we go literal. Who among Christians wants to explain the Immaculate Conception? A talking snake? The rather peculiar ritual of “grokking” Jesus by eating stale wafers and sipping cheap wine?

Romney effectively neutralized these questions with his recognition that all religions have their curiosities as well as their wonders. In a nod toward pluralism, Romney noted the things he loves about other religions – “the profound ceremony of the Catholic Mass, the approachability of God in the prayers of the evangelicals, the tenderness of spirit among the Pentecostals, the confident independence of the Lutherans, the ancient traditions of the Jews, unchanged through the ages, and the commitment to frequent prayer of the Muslims.”

Unapologetically, Romney said he wouldn’t disavow the faith of his fathers and if his campaign for president fails because of it, then “so be it.”

But why should he or anyone disavow his faith to run for president? How did that idea ever gain entry into the political arena of a country founded on the idea of religious liberty? Didn’t the earliest Americans die to secure that proposition and to codify it into law?

Romney’s clear attempt to assuage evangelical Christians that he and they are on the same page, if not always on the same scripture, may not satisfy some in the born-again camp. But those who resist Romney’s higher calling to true religious liberty might profit from a moment of introspection.

Who is to judge another’s faith? And by what standard has Romney’s religion failed in guiding what has clearly been an exemplary life?

The religious questions raised by Romney’s candidacy have intersected (by grace, some would say) with a time when Americans needed to review their nation’s founding principles and, in Romney’s words, appreciate “the profound implications of our tradition of religious liberty.”

As radical Islam seeks to impose theocratic tyranny – to convert by conquest – Americans can be grateful that, as Romney put it, reason and religion are allies in this country. But that relationship has always been a fragile marriage and this presidential election seems to be testing our resolve.

Perhaps it took someone more recently persecuted for his beliefs to remind us that “religious tolerance would be a shallow principle indeed if it were reserved only for faiths with which we agree.”

Indeed.

Or, as they say, amen.

CE Week #15: “Iraq war spending deal taking shape”

Democrats may yield on withdrawal deadlines

Jonathan Weisman and Paul Kane
Washington Post
December 8, 2007

WASHINGTON – House Democratic leaders could complete work as soon as Monday on a half-trillion-dollar spending package that will include billions of dollars for the war effort in Iraq without the timelines for the withdrawal of combat forces that President Bush has refused to accept, House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Md., said Friday.

In a complicated deal over the war funds, Democrats will include about $11 billion more in domestic spending than President Bush has requested, emergency drought relief for the Southeast and legislation to address the subprime mortgage crisis, Hoyer told a meeting of the Washington Post’s editorial board.

If the bargain ultimately becomes law, it would be the third time since Democrats took control of Congress that they would have failed to force Bush to change course in Iraq and would have continued to fund a war that they have repeatedly vowed to end. But it would also be the clearest instance yet of the president bowing to a Democratic demand for more money for domestic priorities, an increase that he had promised to reject.

“The way you pass appropriations bills is you get agreement among all the relevant players, among which the president with his veto pen is a very relevant player,” Hoyer said. “Everybody knows he has no intention of signing anything without money for Iraq, unfettered, without constraints. I think that’s ultimately going to be the result.”

The Democrats plan to take a two-step approach to completing the deal. House leaders are considering an initial allotment of about $30 billion, ostensibly for the war in Afghanistan and some other military needs, which all sides in the deal recognize could be shifted to fund the Iraq war.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., then would allow Republicans to increase that amount to avert a filibuster of the spending bill in the Senate. The goal of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., is $70 billion for the war, more than the $50 billion short-term funding that House Democrats initially proposed but far less than the $196 billion Bush has sought.

The Senate-passed bill would then go to the House for final approval.

McConnell was the first to suggest the outlines of the deal, which would allow Congress to pass the 11 remaining appropriations bills for fiscal 2008. Hoyer said Democrats are ready to accept that bargain.

But the deal has a long way to go before it can be enacted. Reid and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., vowed last month to oppose any additional money for the Iraq war that does not come with a timeline for the withdrawal of U.S. troops. In talks this week with White House Chief of Staff Joshua Bolten and White House budget chief Jim Nussle, Reid signaled that he could accept the McConnell deal, according to Senate Democratic aides. But Pelosi is uncommitted, spokesman Nadeam Elshami said.

Republican leaders are badly divided on the plan. At a White House meeting this week, McConnell presented the proposal to Bush, but House Minority Leader John Boehner, R-Ohio, and House Minority Whip Roy Blunt, R-Mo., urged the president to reject it.

Even as Bush’s approval ratings have slid to historic lows, House GOP leaders have stood by him, twisting the arms of rank-and-file Republicans to uphold his vetoes of popular legislation, such as an expansion of the State Children’s Health Insurance Program and funding increases for health care and education.

White House acquiescence now to increased domestic spending would be viewed as a betrayal by House Republicans who are trying to reestablish their credentials as small-government conservatives.

“I am adamantly opposed to it,” Boehner said Thursday. “I came here to hold the line on spending, not to raise it.”

CE Week #15: “Senate Waives Pledge, Approves Tax Bill”


Middle-Class Relief From Alternative Taxation’s Bite Passed With No Revenue or Spending Offsets
By Jonathan Weisman and Jeffrey H. Birnbaum
Washington Post Staff Writers
Friday, December 7, 2007; A03

Eleven months after adopting stringent new rules aimed at reining in the federal deficit, the Senate last night shrugged off its pledge of fiscal rectitude and overwhelmingly approved a measure to spare millions of families from the growing reach of the alternative minimum tax without providing an offsetting tax increase.

The Senate’s 88 to 5 vote blew a $50 billion hole in the Democrats’ promise not to pass any spending or tax measure that would add to the deficit. The outcome brought a furious response from conservative “Blue Dog” Democrats in the House, who assailed the Senate and vowed to block passage of any tax measure that would add a cent to the federal debt.

“We run for reelection every two years. They run every six years,” fumed Rep. Mike Ross (D-Ark.). “Don’t try to tell me the Senate can’t take a tough vote.”

Despite the heavy toll the AMT exacts on some middle-class taxpayers, Congress has been loath to repeal it outright because that would leave a trillion-dollar hole in the federal budget over 10 years. Instead, successive Congresses have opted for one-year “patches” that hide the long-term cost. The Senate-passed bill would spare the middle-class households touched by the AMT an average of $2,000-per-family increase on 2007 income taxes and would ensure that refunds of as much as $75 billion would be distributed without delay.

The AMT was designed in the 1960s to prevent the very rich from using deductions, credits and other shelters to avoid paying taxes, but its income thresholds did not rise with inflation. Taxpayers are not hit by the AMT based on income alone. The number and type of deductions and credits they take also help determine whether they will be forced into the alternative taxation system. Because of rising incomes, the tax’s bite is expected to expand to more than 30 million households in 2010. Last year, the AMT affected 3.8 million mostly well-off households.

Senate Democratic leaders said that they had done all they could to preserve their much-ballyhooed pay-as-you-go — or “paygo” — rule, which says that any new entitlement spending or tax cuts would have to be offset by tax increases or spending cuts.

Once a centerpiece of Democratic claims to the mantle of fiscal discipline, paygo was ultimately steamrollered by the AMT, which could hit 23 million families this year if Congress does not act.

“We want everyone to know we have tried every alternative possible,” Senate Majority Leader Harry M. Reid (D-Nev.) said with a sigh after a House-passed AMT bill, to be paid for largely with tax increases on wealthy Wall Street titans, fell to a Republican filibuster. Just 46 senators, all Democrats, voted to cut off debate on the measure, 14 short of the 60 needed.

For some Democrats, especially the Blue Dogs, the blow to paygo last night was particularly bitter. For years, Democrats tried and failed to force GOP leaders in Congress to adopt pay-as-you-go rules, in large part to limit wave after wave of tax cuts that they said were piling government debt onto future generations.

Republicans always resisted such strictures. And this year, as Democrats struggled to pay for priority measures on health care, student loans and agriculture with tax increases and spending cuts that opened them up to a barrage of Republican political attacks, they have seen why.

“The politics have been very bad,” said Rep. John Tanner (D-Tenn.). “But that’s the problem with politics: Politicians giving the voters everything they want without paying for it. That’s the easy way out. That’s how you become a Third World country.”

With paygo breached, Republicans were almost gleeful. “They had painted themselves into a corner,” said Sen. John Thune (S.D.). “That’s a huge concession on their part, completely repudiating one of their core principles.”

And both sides predicted that a breach this big could create a flood, as lawmakers argue that their pet legislation is just as deserving of a waiver from the strictures of paygo.

“If we waive paygo on this, it will open the door for more financial — bordering on criminal — irresponsibility,” Tanner said.

“Tax cuts may be back on the table,” said Grover Norquist, president of the anti-tax Americans for Tax Reform.

Some House Democrats are not ready to give up just yet. The House-passed AMT “patch” would have been paid for mainly by forcing managers of private equity “buyout” firms and hedge funds to pay ordinary income tax rates on the millions of dollars they earn each year. Currently, much of those earnings are counted as capital gains and taxed at 15 percent, rather than at the 35 percent income tax rate paid by the nation’s highest earners. Wall Street launched a major lobbying campaign to defeat that tax increase.

House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Charles B. Rangel (D-N.Y.) scrambled last night to come up with a new set of tax increases and loophole closures that could win Republican support. But Rep. Jim McCrery (La.), the tax-writing panel’s senior Republican, said Rangel need not bother. “It’s not going to happen. It’s not going anywhere,” he said.

That could leave the fate of paygo to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.). Blue Dog leaders said the speaker personally pledged to them on Wednesday that she will not bring any bill to the House floor that would add to the deficit. If she does, 31 Blue Dog Democrats have vowed to vote against the measure. Rep. Allen Boyd (D-Fla.), a leading Blue Dog, even said that he would rather see the alternative minimum tax balloon this year then see his party bend on its vow of fiscal discipline.

But if Pelosi bowed to pressure and brought an unpaid-for AMT bill to the floor, it would almost certainly pass over such opposition, House Democratic leaders conceded. Overwhelming support from Republicans, coupled with Democratic defections, would probably get the bill to President Bush’s desk for a promised signature.

“The House has been much firmer on this all year than the Senate, and it may still insist on offsets. But the end-of-the-session pressure is to going to be there to say Merry Christmas and get out of town without paying for anything,” lamented Robert L. Bixby, executive director of the Concord Coalition, a budget deficit watchdog. “It’s very disappointing.”

Staff writer Paul Kane contributed to this report.

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Published in: on December 7, 2007 at 7:27 pm Comments (0)

CE Week #15: “Gennifer Flowers may pick Clinton”

This one is not for credit, but feel free to comment; it falls under the category “Are you kidding me?” 

Associated Press
December 7, 2007

LAS VEGAS – The one-time other woman in Hillary Rodham Clinton’s life says she’s considering casting her vote for the former first lady.

“I can’t help but want to support my own gender, and she’s as experienced as any of the others – except maybe Joe Biden,” Gennifer Flowers said in a recent interview.

Flowers said she is still undecided, supports abortion rights and has long wanted to see a woman in the White House.

“I would love to see a woman president, I just didn’t think it would be her,” Flowers said.

 

In the 1992 presidential race, the former television reporter claimed to have had a 12-year affair with then-candidate and Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton. Clinton initially denied the allegation, but later, during his deposition in the Paula Jones sexual harassment case, acknowledged a single sexual encounter with Flowers.

The 57-year-old lounge singer says she plans to stay far away from presidential politics.

That’s not to say she isn’t watching the race closely.

Democratic Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware, she said, is “smart, sexy and experienced.” Mitt Romney is also on her short list.

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World offers chance for change

David S. Broder
Washington Post
December 6, 2007

The shape of the world has changed again, signaling the possibility of a new American foreign policy and national security strategy. The portents are hopeful if U.S. leaders have the imagination and courage to seize some of the opportunities.

Just consider the major international headlines of the past few weeks:

A Middle East conference including almost all the major players in that troubled region produced an agreement by leaders of Israel and the Palestinians to negotiate toward a peace agreement within the next year.

 

In Iraq, the level of violence has subsided and the first troop withdrawals are planned, while tribal leaders – without waiting for the central government – are negotiating among themselves and forming anti-al-Qaida militias.

In Iran, U.S. intelligence reported this week that work on a nuclear weapons program was suspended in 2003, apparently in response to U.S.-led and U.N.-sanctioned pressure. President Bush says this is no guarantee that the Iranian regime can be trusted to stay disarmed. But to others, at the very least, it opens a window for negotiations.

And in our own hemisphere, Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez, the most anti-American of all the elected leaders in Latin America, was given his comeuppance this week by his own people. A referendum he sponsored for constitutional changes, which would have strengthened his control of the government and permitted him to serve indefinitely, was rejected. Chavez said he took it as a signal of dissatisfaction.

Now, it was not all good news. In Russia, Vladimir Putin engineered a parliamentary election that solidified his control and moved that country, with its growing oil-fueled wealth, further away from a genuine democracy.

In Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf shed his uniform but kept his hold on the presidency, and his emergency controls have made it questionable whether the opposition will have a real opportunity in the coming elections.

And in Afghanistan, the Taliban, exploiting the security they now enjoy in the border area with Pakistan, have become more aggressive against U.S. and NATO forces.

All this suggests that this is a world full of challenges – but fortunately not facing a crisis or the likelihood of another major war.

Judging by his news conference remarks Tuesday, Bush intends to keep marching straight ahead. His view is that the improvement in Iraq results from his decision to raise the level of troops committed to that battle, and that Iran’s abandonment of nuclear ambitions would not have occurred without the pressure the U.S. and its allies applied.

He has shown more flexibility in his approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but still keeps the negotiations at arm’s length, rather than taking on a continuous personal role of mediator.

Bush’s stance is likely to be copied by most of the major Republican presidential candidates. They can take heart from the successes the administration is beginning to score with its foreign policy. Surely, their position is stronger than the one they were defending six months ago – when Iraq looked to be lost and the Middle East was in turmoil and the threat of war with Iran loomed.

But it is equally the case that the changed shape of the world raises hopes among Democrats for bigger foreign policy changes than anything Bush or the Republicans have contemplated.

It also strengthens the case for a major diplomatic overture to Tehran – a serious effort to test whether the elements in the Iranian government that were rational enough to abandon the nuclear weapons project are interested in other steps that would bring their nation into a working relationship with the West.

The testing ground would be Iran’s willingness to stop supplying arms to the insurgents in Iraq and instead help stabilize that neighboring country.

And that, in turn, would actually make it possible – and prudent – to reduce the American military force in Iraq, a step the Democrats have long advocated but never managed to achieve.

The opportunities in Latin America are at least as great, beginning with a trade agreement with Colombia and then, very possibly, reaching out to the people of Venezuela and Cuba, who are plainly not all that enamored of their current leftist rulers.

All this – and more – now becomes a matter for genuine discussion, because the shape of the world has changed.

CE Week #15: “In Speech on Faith, Romney Vows to Serve ‘No One Cause’”

By Dan Balz
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, December 7, 2007; A01

COLLEGE STATION, Tex., Dec. 6 — Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney, seeking to allay suspicions about his Mormon faith, pledged Thursday to serve the common good rather than a single religion if elected president.

“Let me assure you that no authorities of my church, or of any other church for that matter, will ever exert influence on presidential decisions,” Romney told an audience at George H.W. Bush’s presidential library. “Their authority is theirs, within the province of church affairs, and it ends where the affairs of the nation begin.”

The former Massachusetts governor, in a long-awaited speech that could be crucial to his hopes of winning the GOP nomination and the White House, went on to say that, as president, he would serve “no one religion, no one group, no one cause and no one interest.” He continued: “A president must serve only the common cause of the people of the United States.”

But Romney was equally emphatic in arguing that religion has a place in public life. Saying that the doctrine of separation of church and state has been carried too far, he said some people and institutions have pushed to remove “any acknowledgment of God” from the public domain. “It’s as if they’re intent on establishing a new religion in America — the religion of secularism,” he said. “They’re wrong.”

Romney’s address, which was widely compared to one that John F. Kennedy gave in Houston in 1960 as he was seeking to become the first Roman Catholic president, was the most important of his political career and came at a potential turning point in the wide-open Republican nomination battle. Romney has sought to cast himself as a committed conservative, but many polls have shown resistance, particularly among evangelical Christians, to a Mormon candidate.

Romney has counted on victories in Iowa and New Hampshire to launch a candidacy that has sometimes struggled for national recognition. But in Iowa he now faces growing competition for the votes of Christian conservatives from former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, an ordained Baptist minister who has made his religious faith central to his candidacy.

As a result, Romney’s challenge here Thursday was different from Kennedy’s in 1960, and so was his speech. Like Kennedy, he sought to neutralize concerns that his church would in some way dictate his decisions as president. But unlike Kennedy, he needed to assure Christian conservatives that he shares their fundamental convictions and a determination not to see religion’s role in political life reduced.

The setting, the Bush library on the campus of Texas A&M University, conveyed a presidential aura to an event that was long debated inside the Romney campaign. Signifying the speech’s significance, the candidate was accompanied by his wife, Ann, and four of their sons.

Former president George H.W. Bush introduced Romney, and while he said he was not endorsing any candidate in the GOP race, he spoke warmly about Romney and his family.

The audience included several prominent religious leaders, including Richard Land, president of the Southern Baptist Convention’s Ethics & Religious Liberty Commission; Jay Sekulow of the American Center for Law and Justice; and the Rev. Lou Sheldon of the Traditional Values Coalition. Their immediate reactions were positive, with Land, speaking on CNN, saying Romney had done “a magnificent job.”

“His delivery was passionate and his message was inspirational,” Focus on the Family founder James Dobson said in a statement. “Whether it will answer all the questions and concerns of Evangelical Christian voters is yet to be determined, but the governor is to be commended for articulating the importance of our religious heritage as it relates to today.”

Family Research Council President Tony Perkins said Romney’s remarks “were well-delivered and he offered many compelling thoughts,” but like Dobson he warned that it “would be an illusion to think that any single speech could assuage every concern or end the thriving discussions Americans have about these issues.”

Romney will not know whether he succeeded in addressing those concerns until the first results come in on Jan. 3 in Iowa, where religious conservatives play a substantial role in the GOP caucuses. A more critical test for Romney will come Jan. 19 in South Carolina’s GOP primary, as Southern evangelicals have been seen as most resistant to his Mormon beliefs.

To those Christians, Romney offered a statement of his beliefs: “I believe that Jesus Christ is the son of God and the savior of mankind.” But he declined to attempt to demystify the teachings of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, as some had suggested he might have to do.

“There are some who would have a presidential candidate describe and explain his church’s distinctive doctrines,” he said. “To do so would enable the very religious test the founders prohibited in the Constitution. No candidate should become the spokesman for his faith. For if he becomes president, he will need the prayers of the people of all faiths.”

Romney, like Kennedy, said there should be no religious test for the presidency. “A person should not be elected because of his faith, nor should he be rejected because of his faith,” he said.

But he also explicitly declined to distance himself from his church. “I believe in my Mormon faith, and I endeavor to live by it,” he said. Should he lose because of that, “so be it,” he said, adding that he believes the American people prefer politicians who are true to their faith rather than “believers of convenience.”

One GOP strategist called that an unfortunate choice of words, given the charges that Romney changed his views on abortion and some other issues, adopting more conservative positions in preparation for his presidential campaign. “It lies at the core of why some Republicans and conservatives have doubts about Romney,” said this strategist, speaking on the condition of anonymity to offer a candid assessment of the speech.

Romney underscored repeatedly the religious heritage that he said was at the heart of the Founding Fathers’ vision of the new country. He called for continued public acknowledgment of “the Creator” on currency and in the Pledge of Allegiance, and said nativity scenes and menorahs should be welcome in public places.

He said Americans should focus on their shared moral values rather than the denominational differences that sometimes divide the country. “Whether it was the cause of abolition, or civil rights, or the right to life itself,” Romney said, “no movement of conscience can succeed in America that cannot speak to the convictions of religious people.”

SEE RELATED MATERIALS:  Article VI of the U.S. Constitution 

Published in: on at 4:57 pm Comments (3)

CE Week #14/#15: OPEN FORUM

This thread of discussion is to allow interested students to introduce any topic or article concerning matters related to the class.

Feel free to bring up ideas for discussion, website links, or embed complete articles.

These posts and responses will be accepted for post and response grades just like a regular post or response.

Published in: on December 6, 2007 at 11:40 am Comments (14)

CE Week #14: “Fundamentalism the true threat”

Leonard Pitts Jr.
Miami Herald
December 5, 2007

Just to make sure I’ve got this straight: their God is threatened by a teddy bear?

As in a plush, cuddly doll in the shape of a bear? As in the glass-eyed figure children sleep with for security? We’re talking teddy bears as in teddy bears? A teddy bear has offended their God?

Lord, have mercy.

You’re familiar with the story that has me venting, right? If not, strap in. This one will have you reaching for your blood pressure pills.

It seems that last week in Sudan, Gillian Gibbons, a 54-year-old British teacher, was arrested. Her offense: she brought the aforementioned teddy bear in and asked her class of 7-year-olds to give it a name. The kids considered Abdullah and Hassan but finally settled, overwhelmingly, upon Muhammad. Muhammad is one of the most common names in that part of the world, so it was not unlike if American kids named a bear “Joe.”

 

Unfortunately, Muhammad is also the name of the man Muslims revere as a prophet of God. So when some parents heard about the bear, they called authorities. Next thing you know, Gibbons was hauled in. The charge: insulting Islam. The potential penalty: six months and 40 lashes.

Justice, if that’s what you want to call it, apparently moves fast in Sudan. Gibbons was arrested on a Sunday. She was indicted that Wednesday, convicted that Thursday and sentenced to 15 days. That Friday, hundreds of Sudanese took to the streets in protest – not, as you would hope, over the stupidity of the entire affair but, rather, at what they saw as the leniency of the sentence. See, they wanted the death penalty.

If it makes you feel any better: according to a published report, many of the protesters were government workers who had been ordered to take part in the demonstration. Anyway, on Monday of this week, the president of Crazyland – excuse me, Sudan – pardoned Gibbons and she flew home.

Throughout her ordeal, she has maintained that she respects Islam and has asked that people not think ill of the faith because of this. Which is exactly right. Islam is not the problem. Fundamentalism, however, is. And that, as we should know from our own experience, is a mindset that is not confined to one faith.

To the contrary, every faith has them, these rigid doctrinaires who would sacrifice their very humanity for the fool’s gold of theological purity, these people so eager to live the literal law of their holy books that they miss the point of those holy books, shedding compassion, kindness and plain common sense along the way. Worse, they are always literal about the wrong things, always literal about passages in holy writ that they feel empower them to punish, judge, ostracize and condemn. Never literal about the passages that require them to give, forgive, serve and stand humble.

As I said, it’s a failing common to fundamentalists, but that failing has seldom been more galling than here. We are, after all, talking about Sudan, a nation that was embroiled in civil war almost constantly from the time it gained independence in 1956 until a peace treaty was signed in 2005. More than 2 million people died in that war, more than 4 million were displaced.

And then there is Darfur, the western region where four years of government-backed genocide has left an estimated 200,000 people dead. Some might say they are the lucky ones. Luckier than the man whose eyes were gouged out with a bayonet. Luckier than the people burned alive inside their huts. Luckier than the women raped so brutally they can no longer walk, so brutally that urine trickles constantly down their legs.

What a pious, holy nation. Their God is offended by a teddy bear.

If anything, God is offended by them.

Published in: on December 5, 2007 at 9:21 pm Comments (12)

CE Week #14: “GOP candidates on the attack”

David Sarasohn
Portland Oregonian
December 5, 2007

Every evening, CNN gives an hour to Lou Dobbs, who explains that international trade and illegal immigrants are endangering national security, destroying the middle class and bringing back leprosy.

Last Wednesday on CNN, Dobbs’ hour was followed by two hours of Republicans running for president.

And for a while, you couldn’t tell where Dobbs stopped and the debate started.

Things began with a rousing alley fight between former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani over who was weaker on illegal immigrants. Romney took the first question on the subject and wheeled on Giuliani, charging him with running New York as a “sanctuary city.”

 

Giuliani responded by saying Romney had a “sanctuary mansion,” because the gardening company working at his house employed two illegal immigrants. (The Associated Press reported Tuesday that Romney had fired the company.) The New Yorker told Romney, “You have a special immigration problem that nobody else has, because you were employing illegal immigrants.”

Getting nasty with Giuliani, Romney gives away too much weight. Romney’s willing to do it – he is, it seems, willing to do just about anything – but he takes no particular joy in the attack; he’d rather beam and talk about the wonderfulness of family.

Giuliani, on the other hand, delights in the idea, with a New York politician’s fondness for calling opponents either dangerous or deranged. As a result, the GOP presidential debate began with an argument over what you should do if someone mowing your lawn seems to have an accent.

Rep. Tom Tancredo, R-Colo., running for president on a single-issue anti-immigrant platform – he wants to stop legal as well as illegal immigration – stood quivering with excitement, exulting, “All I’ve heard is people trying to out-Tancredo Tancredo.”

Romney then attacked former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, breathing down Romney’s neck in Iowa, for proposing to let illegal immigrants graduating from Arkansas high schools qualify for state college merit scholarships. Huckabee responded firmly, “In all due respect, we’re a better country than to punish children for what their parents did.”

The former Massachusetts governor declared incredulously, “It reminds me of what it’s like talking to liberals in Massachusetts” – which also reminded people that five years ago, he was one.

As noted, Romney’s willing to get nasty; he’s just not very good at it. When he can’t figure out what the audience wants to hear, he gets fuddled. Confronted by an earlier quote from him looking forward to a time that gays could serve in the armed forces, all he could think to say was, “This isn’t that time.” Asked what he’d do to preserve Social Security, he went off on “tough new competition from Asia,” “overuse of oil” and “Hillary Clinton.”

Huckabee probably gained most from the debate, with calmness and a supply of prepared zingers. He was also better at avoiding unwanted questions; asked whether Jesus would support capital punishment, Huckabee explained that Jesus was too smart ever to run for public office.

He was also better positioned for a black questioner who asked why minorities didn’t vote Republican. The question started with Giuliani, who pronounced, “We probably haven’t done a good enough job as a party in pointing out that our solutions, our philosophy, is really the philosophy that would be the most attractive to the overwhelming majority of people in the African-American and Hispanic community.”

One thing that would help, of course, would be if Hispanics hadn’t seen the beginning of the debate.

Still, it was a ringing statement from someone who, at one point during his time as mayor of New York, enjoyed the approval of 8 percent of African-Americans in New York.

The single number is not a misprint.

Huckabee was able to note that running for re-election as governor of Arkansas, he’d won 48 percent of the African-American vote.

If just about any other Republican had said that, it would be a misprint.

Huckabee has his own problems. He goes off into Great Pumpkin-like calls for abolishing the income tax. Awkwardly for a president overseeing billions in federal medical and scientific research, he doesn’t believe in evolution.

Then again, if you’d participated in multiple Republican presidential debates, you might not, either.

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CE Week #14: “Iowa polls shaking things up”

Michael Barone
Creators Syndicate
December 4, 2007

Every so often, I page through my copy of the Constitution, searching for the section that says Iowa and New Hampshire vote first. I’ve yet to find it. But Iowa and New Hampshire are set to lead off the presidential voting on Jan. 3 and Jan. 8. Right now, Iowa, where about 200,000 people – about 10 percent of registered voters – are expected to attend the party caucuses, is producing great ruction in both parties’ races.

The most startling news comes on the Republican side, where Mike Huckabee has pulled about even with Mitt Romney.

Huckabee, who finished second in the August straw poll in Ames, never topped 14 percent in polls taken before October. But a late November Rasmussen poll showed him leading Romney 28 percent to 24 percent, and in the four most recent polls, Romney has an average lead of 27 percent to 26 percent.

Huckabee is an ordained Baptist minister as well as a former governor of Arkansas, and he seems to draw most of his support from the roughly 40 percent of caucus-goers who are evangelical Protestants. They account for two-thirds of his support in the latest ABC-Washington Post poll.

A Huckabee victory in Iowa would seriously damage Romney, who has held leads, often wide leads, in Iowa polls since he started running TV ads there in the spring. It would hurt Fred Thompson, who needs the votes of religious conservatives in Iowa and elsewhere. It would help Rudy Giuliani, who has been running third in Iowa polls and second in New Hampshire to Romney, whose support there could evaporate if he fails to win in Iowa. It might help John McCain, who is banking on duplicating his 2000 win in New Hampshire.

Huckabee may have a hard time capitalizing on an Iowa win if he is unable to expand his appeal. New Hampshire is much more secular than Iowa and seems to have a distaste for Southerners. George W. Bush lost and Al Gore barely won there in 2000; Bill Clinton lost there in 1992; Jimmy Carter won in 1976, but with only 29 percent of the vote.

Huckabee’s considerable charm and wit may take the hard edge off for many who find his emphasis on religion unnerving – he fended off one hostile question in the CNN/YouTube debate by saying that Jesus was too smart to run for office. And there’s a large evangelical base in South Carolina and Florida, which vote Jan. 19 and Jan. 29.

But it’s not clear whether Republican voters in other states, eager for a nominee who can win in November, will embrace a candidate who will be portrayed by many in the media as an extremist on cultural issues and who has little experience relevant to protecting the nation – one issue on which Republicans have often held an advantage over Democrats.

Meanwhile, Iowa Democrats may shake up their party’s race. Iowa polls have long shown a close three-way race with Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards. In late November polls, ABC-Washington Post put Obama 4 percentage points ahead, ARG had him 2 points up, Rasmussen showed Clinton up by 2 points, and Strategic Vision had them tied.

Edwards trailed the leader in each poll by just 3 to 8 percentage points. He has been campaigning there for four years, and Obama has had more staff and has spent more money there than Clinton for most of the year.

It’s suddenly looking quite possible that Clinton could lose in Iowa, and her lead over Obama in New Hampshire has declined from an average of 19 percentage points in September and October polls to 13 points in November polls. It could decline further or disappear if Obama wins in Iowa, and a two-candidate race would ensue.

It’s less clear that Edwards could capitalize on an Iowa win in New Hampshire. He hasn’t polled above 15 percent there since May, and in 2004, after a solid second-place finish in Iowa, he finished fourth with a miserable 12 percent in New Hampshire.

Of course, the contests could turn out the way many Washington insiders have long expected – the methodical Clinton winning easily and quickly; the well-financed and well-organized Romney, propelled by Iowa and New Hampshire victories, fending off Giuliani, McCain and Thompson. But the 200,000 or so Iowans who have so much to say about who will be president for all 303 million of us may have other ideas.

Published in: on December 4, 2007 at 4:51 pm Comments (24)

CE Week #14: “U.S. Finds Iran Halted Its Nuclear Arms Effort in 2003″

By MARK MAZZETTI

WASHINGTON, Dec. 3 — A new assessment by American intelligence agencies released Monday concludes that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003 and that the program remains frozen, contradicting a judgment two years ago that Tehran was working relentlessly toward building a nuclear bomb.

The conclusions of the new assessment are likely to reshape the final year of the Bush administration, which has made halting Iran’s nuclear program a cornerstone of its foreign policy.

The assessment, a National Intelligence Estimate that represents the consensus view of all 16 American spy agencies, states that Tehran is likely to keep its options open with respect to building a weapon, but that intelligence agencies “do not know whether it currently intends to develop nuclear weapons.”

Iran is continuing to produce enriched uranium, a program that the Tehran government has said is intended for civilian purposes. The new estimate says that the enrichment program could still provide Iran with enough raw material to produce a nuclear weapon sometime by the middle of next decade, a timetable essentially unchanged from previous estimates.

But the new report essentially disavows a judgment that the intelligence agencies issued in 2005, which concluded that Iran had an active secret arms program intended to transform the raw material into a nuclear weapon. The new estimate declares instead with “high confidence” that the military-run program was shut in 2003, and it concludes with “moderate confidence” that the program remains frozen. The report judges that the halt was imposed by Iran “primarily in response to increasing international scrutiny and pressure.”

It was not clear what prompted the reversal. Administration officials said the new estimate reflected conclusions that the intelligence agencies had agreed on only in the past several weeks. The report’s agnosticism about Iran’s nuclear intentions represents a very different tone than had been struck by President Bush, and by Vice President Dick Cheney, who warned in a speech in October that if Iran “stays on its present course, the international community is prepared to impose serious consequences.”

The estimate does not say when intelligence agencies learned that the arms program had been halted, but officials said new information obtained from covert sources over the summer had led to a reassessment of the state of Iran’s nuclear program and a decision to delay preparation of the estimate, which had been scheduled to be delivered to Congress in the spring.

The new report came out just over five years after a 2002 intelligence estimate on Iraq concluded that it possessed chemical and biological weapons programs and was determined to restart its nuclear program. That estimate was instrumental in winning the Congressional authorization for a military invasion of Iraq, but it proved to be deeply flawed, and most of its conclusions turned out to be wrong.

Intelligence officials said the specter of the 2002 estimate on Iraq hung over their deliberations on Iran even more than it had in 2005, when the lessons from the intelligence failure on Iraq were just beginning to prompt spy agencies to adapt a more rigorous approach to their findings.

The 2007 report on Iran had been requested by members of Congress, underscoring that any conclusions could affect American policy toward Iran at a delicate time. The new estimate brought American assessments more in line with the judgments of international arms inspectors.

Last month, Mohamed ElBaradei, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, reported that Iran was operating 3,000 uranium-enriching centrifuges capable of producing fissile material for nuclear weapons, but he said inspectors had been unable to determine whether the Iranian program sought only to generate electricity or to also to build weapons.

Senator Harry Reid, Democrat of Nevada and the Senate majority leader, portrayed the assessment as “directly challenging some of this administration’s alarming rhetoric about the threat posed by Iran” and called for enhanced diplomatic efforts toward Tehran. Democratic presidential candidates mostly echoed Senator Reid, but also emphasized that Iran’s long-term ambitions were still a great concern to the United States.

In interviews on Monday, some administration officials expressed skepticism about the conclusions reached in the new report, saying they doubted that American intelligence agencies had a firm grasp of the Iranian government’s intentions.

The administration officials also said the intelligence findings would not lessen the White House’s concern about the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran. The fact that Iran continues to refine its abilities to enrich uranium, they said, means that any decision in the future to restart a nuclear weapons program could lead Iran to a bomb in relatively short order. While the new report does not contrast sharply with earlier assessments about Iran’s capabilities, it does make new judgments about the intentions of its government.

Rather than portraying Iran as a rogue, irrational country determined to join the club of nations that possess a nuclear bomb, the estimate says Iran’s “decisions are guided by a cost-benefit approach rather than a rush to a weapon irrespective of the political, economic and military costs.”

The administration called new attention to the threat posed by Iran this year when Mr. Bush suggested in October that a nuclear-armed Iran could lead to “World War III.” Mr. Cheney also said that month that as Iran continued to enrich uranium, “the end of that process will be the development of nuclear weapons.”

Yet even as Mr. Bush and Mr. Cheney were making those statements, analysts at the Central Intelligence Agency were well under way toward revising the earlier assessment about Iran’s nuclear arms program. Administration officials said the White House had known at the time that the conclusions about Iran were under review but had not been informed until more recently that intelligence agencies had reversed their 2005 conclusion.

In September, officials said, Gen. Michael V. Hayden, the C.I.A. director, and his deputy, Stephen R. Kappes, met with Iran analysts to take a hard look at past conclusions about Iran’s nuclear program in light of new information obtained since 2005.

“We felt that we needed to scrub all the assessments and sources to make sure we weren’t misleading ourselves,” said one senior intelligence official, speaking on condition of anonymity.

The estimate concludes that if Iran were to restart its arms program, it would still be at least two years before it would have enough highly enriched uranium to produce a nuclear bomb. But it says it is still “very unlikely” Iran could produce enough of the material by then.

Instead, the report released on Monday concludes that it is more likely that Iran could have a bomb by the early part to the middle of the next decade. The report states that the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research judges that Iran is unlikely to achieve this goal before 2013, “because of foreseeable technical and programmatic problems.”

The estimate concludes that it would be difficult to persuade Iran’s leaders to abandon all efforts to get nuclear weapons, given the importance of getting the bomb to Iran’s strategic goals in the Middle East.

Intelligence officials presented the outlines of the intelligence estimate two weeks ago to several cabinet members, along with Mr. Cheney. During the meeting, officials said, policy makers challenged and debated the conclusions. The final draft of the estimate was presented to Mr. Bush and Mr. Cheney last Wednesday.

Officials said they now planned to give extensive briefings to American allies like Israel, Britain and France. Israel intelligence officials for years have put forward more urgent warnings about Iran’s nuclear abilities than their American counterparts, positing that Iran could get a nuclear bomb this decade.

Intelligence officials had said just weeks ago they were ending the practice of declassifying parts of intelligence estimates, citing concerns that analysts might alter their judgments if they knew the reports would be widely publicized.

But in a statement on Monday, Donald M. Kerr, the principal deputy director of national intelligence, said that since the new estimate was at odds with the 2005 assessment — and thus at odds with public statements by top officials about Iran — “we felt it was important to release this information to ensure that an accurate presentation is available.”

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CE Week #14: “How No. 1s Pick No. 2s”

Seriously, now: Have you ever met anyone who voted for a presidential candidate because of his running mate?

By George F. Will

NEWSWEEK

Updated: 1:10 PM ET Nov 24, 2007

A high-priced lawyer, a low-priced lawyer and the tooth fairy are sitting at a table on which rests a $100 bill. The lights go out briefly, and when they come back on the bill is gone. Who took it? Obviously, the high-priced lawyer—the other two are figments of our imaginations.

Here is another such figment: People who vote for a presidential candidate because of that candidate’s running mate. There may be such people, but have you ever met one?

Still, it is neither pointless nor premature to wonder who each of the four most likely nominees—Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney—might choose to run with. The question illuminates the different challenges the candidates face in cobbling together 270 electoral votes.

A presidential nominee can try to do one or more of four things with the vice presidential selection. The nominee can try to heal a divided party by selecting the strongest loser in the nomination contest (e.g., Ronald Reagan’s selection of George H.W. Bush in 1980). The nominee can make a “Hippocratic oath” selection—one that does no harm. Such a running mate has done nothing embarrassing (when vetting potential running mates, the nominee’s agents hope for candor when they ask, “What is it that your wife does not know?”) and will not say something embarrassing in October.

The nominee can select someone who might attract a slice—ethnic, religious, ideological—of the national electorate. This assumes that lots of voters nationally will favor the top of the ticket because of the bottom of it. (See above: Imagination, figment of.) Most realistically, the nominee can select someone bland (”do no harm”) from a state where the running mate might give the ticket a small boost but one sufficient to capture electoral votes otherwise unattainable. Such calculations are risky: John Kerry chose North Carolina’s John Edwards, but lost that state, and the congressional district Edwards lives in, and even Edwards’s precinct.

If Clinton wins the nomination with Obama a strong second, it will make no sense for her to select him. She will receive at least 90 percent of the black vote without him and she should not need help in Illinois, which has not voted Republican since 1988. She is a cautious calculator, comfortable around people she knows well. Her Senate office is across the hall from that of Evan Bayh, the preternaturally cautious former two-term governor of Indiana. Winning that state’s 11 electoral votes—it has not voted Democratic since 1964—would seriously complicate any Republican’s path to 270. If she wants to reach for a bigger electoral-vote prize without removing a Democrat from the Senate, there is Ted Strickland, the popular governor of the Center of the Universe Every Fourth Year, a.k.a. Ohio (20 electoral votes).

As the Democrats’ nominee, Obama’s largest vulnerability would be his inexperience regarding foreign and military affairs. He could pick a former four-star Army general with diplomatic experience brokering peace in the Balkans—Wesley Clark. Or if Obama worried that such a choice might indicate insecurity, he could pick the governor of a Red—actually, an increasingly purple—state and turn it Blue: Tim Kaine of Virginia (13 electoral votes), which has not voted Democratic since 1964.

If Romney is the Republican nominee, that will indicate that he has assuaged social conservatives’ suspicions about his late conversions to their causes. If Giuliani is the nominee, that will be in spite of the fact that social conservatives remain wary. Many of them might stay home in November 2008 to ensure a “purposeful loss” that teaches the party not to choose pro-choice nominees.

Giuliani’s biggest weakness is his personal history and his weakest region is the South, where almost 40 percent of Republicans live. He could select the guitar-playing former governor of Arkansas Mike Huckabee, the Baptist minister who is as cuddly as Giuliani is abrasive. Giuliani would have to hope that Huckabee would stifle his impulse to say entertaining but idiotic things, such as: We can be energy independent in 10 years and then tell Saudi Arabia we “have about as much interest in their oil as we do their sand.”

Romney might be the most unconstrained of the four in selecting a running mate. A former business executive, he is partial to people who have run large entities, which would point him toward other governors. That would reinforce his theme that Washington cannot be improved by people acculturated to its milieu. Because the winner of the presidency usually wins a majority of the states in the Mississippi Valley, Romney might select Matt Blunt, 37, of Missouri, the bellwether state: It is the only state that has voted with every presidential winner since 1956. Or Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, who turns 47 this week. Minnesota (10 electoral votes) is the only state that has voted Democratic in eight consecutive presidential elections.

Few voters will vote for the running mate rather than the person who chose him. But many voters might vote for the person at the top of the ticket because of what the bottom of the ticket says about the person at the top. Actually, most of those at the top of tickets probably regret the 12th Amendment. Before it was ratified in 1804, presidential nominees did not have the nuisance of running mates.

URL: http://www.newsweek.com/id/72023

Published in: on December 3, 2007 at 5:20 pm Comments (14)

CE Week #14: “So skin cells can turn into stem cells. That doesn’t mean cures are in sight.”

Reality Check on an Embryonic Debate

By Sharon Begley

NEWSWEEK

Updated: 12:46 PM ET Nov 24, 2007

When President George W. Bush vetoed Congress’s latest stem-cell bill in June, he tried to soften the blow and minimize the political damage by arguing science, not politics. Sources of stem cells other than days-old human embryos, he said, offered just as much promise for understanding and treating disease. Bush, it turns out, was well briefed. Earlier this year scientists in Kyoto had announced a feat of biological legerdemain that promised to obviate the long and bitter stem-cell debate, which has pitted the moral status of days-old human embryos against the moral duty of biomedical researchers and society to seek cures for devastating diseases. The Kyoto University team had taken skin cells from adult mice and “reprogrammed” them, turning back the biological calendar so the adult cells could, like embryonic cells, turn into any kind of cell in the body. Bush knew from his advisers that labs were close to accomplishing that with human cells, too.

Now the Kyoto scientists and a team from the University of Wisconsin-Madison have in fact done it. The groups independently announced last week that they had taken a quartet of human genes, slipped them into adult skin cells, and thereby reprogrammed the cells to become stem cells. But although the feat is being hailed as eliminating the need to produce—let alone destroy—embryos as a source of stem cells, it doesn’t. And the attention the discovery is receiving obscures an important change in stem-cell science. While the research was once hailed as leading directly to cures—by turning stem cells into neuronal cells that could be implanted in patients with Parkinson’s disease, say—it now looks like something much more mundane: another laboratory tool to study different diseases, yielding insights that would launch the slow, years-long search for new therapies. “It’s likely that studying human disease is on a faster track than using stem cells for transplant therapy,” says Fred Gage of the Salk Institute. For that purpose, having the new method for creating stem cells is unlikely to lead to treatments and cures any sooner than having only the old one.

The magic of embryonic stem cells comes from the fact that, like a newborn baby, no life path has been closed to them. They can mature into a muscle cell or a liver cell or any other. Although adult cells contain the same genes as embryonic cells, most of their genes have been silenced. One way to make all the genes sing again is to inject them into an egg. Something in the goopy ovoid returns the genes to their embryonic state, allowing the egg to develop into a ball of stem cells. This approach has worked in mice and monkeys, but not humans. The Kyoto and Wisconsin scientists discovered another way to produce human stem cells: use a virus to ferry four human genes into an adult cell. The quartet reprograms the cell back to its embryonic state of unlimited potential.

If this recipe works reliably, notes the journal Science, which published the Wisconsin study, we “would not need human embryos or [eggs] to generate patient-specific stem cells—and therefore could bypass the ethical and political debates that have surrounded the field.” But that’s a big “if.” For one thing, the virus used to carry the four genes has a bad habit of plunking itself into spots on a cell’s chromosomes where it can trigger cancer. Also, one of the four genes is itself a cancer-causing gene. Malignant cells are unlikely to be very useful for either basic research or as transplants, says Konrad Hochedlinger of Massachusetts General Hospital.

But that’s not why Kyoto’s Shinya Yamanaka and colleagues call the claim that reprogrammed stem cells eliminate the need for embryonic stem cells “a serious mistake.” For one thing, it will be years before scientists understand reprogrammed stem cells—how to get them to mature into different tissues, for instance. Also, embryonic stem cells will be needed as a benchmark, something to compare to the power of reprogrammed stem cells to treat disease (which embryonic stem cells have done in lab animals). “Applications of stem-cell science would be indefensibly delayed if [research on reprogrammed stem cells] is pursued at the expense of further human embryonic stem-cell research,” Yamanaka and colleagues wrote last month.

To a public for whom stem cells equal cure, the real blow will be the realization that the simplistic picture—take a patient’s genes, slip them into an egg, let the egg grow and divide into stem cells that are perfect genetic matches for the patient and transplant those cells to treat diabetes, Parkinson’s, Alzheimer’s—is more fiction than fact. “Creating cell lines for transplant is unlikely to come down the pike any time soon,” Paul Nurse, president of Rockefeller University and a Nobelist in medicine, told the New York Stem Cell Foundation conference last month. “Opponents [of embryonic stem-cell research] recognized that this was an overselling of the technology.” Instead of yielding cures directly, stem cells— reprogrammed and embryonic alike—will take their place alongside other lab systems for studying disease. They will reveal hitherto-unknown causes and pathways of illness, even pointing the way to new drugs. The typical time between such a discovery and a new drug is at least 15 years.

URL: http://www.newsweek.com/id/72054

CE Week #14: “A New Shot At History”

The high court will soon examine D.C.’s handgun ban. In the meantime, life on the street carries on.

By Martha Brant and Stuart Taylor Jr.

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NEWSWEEK

Updated: 12:54 PM ET Nov 24, 2007

Washington, D.C., has the toughest gun-control laws in the country. For 31 years, it has been illegal in the nation’s capital to buy, sell or own a handgun. Residents may keep shotguns or rifles—but only if they are stored unloaded, and either disassembled or disabled with trigger locks. Even so, Damon Sams doesn’t spend much time worrying about restrictions on his right to bear arms. Now 19, the former drug dealer got his first gun, a .380 pistol, at 13, when he started selling marijuana and later crack on a street corner in Southeast Washington. “I wanted people to respect me and be scared of me,” he says. He also wanted protection. As a kid, he’d seen his father shot dead in the street. He’s been shot himself on two separate occasions. Now an aspiring rapper who works with Peaceoholics, a D.C. group that tries to get kids off the streets, Sams no longer has any guns, but he says it wouldn’t be much trouble to get them, ban or no ban. “I wasn’t tripping on D.C. laws,” he says with a smile.

The grand marble Supreme Court building is a few miles and a world away from the neighborhood where Sams grew up. But his life story might as well be exhibit A in a landmark gun-rights case the court will hear next spring. Dick Heller, a 65-year-old security guard who lives in a once drug-ridden D.C. neighborhood, challenged the city’s gun ban. With backing from a group of libertarian attorneys who had been searching for just the right gun case to bring before the Supreme Court, Heller argued the law violates his Second Amendment right to bear arms. It will be the first time the court has heard a Second Amendment case since 1939, when it upheld a federal ban on the interstate transportation of sawed-off shotguns.

Americans have argued for decades about gun-control laws—do they reduce violence or strip weapons from honest citizens while leaving them in the hands of criminals? But remarkably, the justices have never squarely answered the question at the heart of the gun debate: what does the Second Amendment mean? Its wording is maddeningly ambiguous: “A well regulated militia, being necessary to the security of a free state, the right of the people to keep and bear arms, shall not be infringed.” Did the Framers intend to protect an individual right to bear arms, or is the amendment a relic from another era, intended to provide for long-defunct state militias, and therefore meaningless today?

The justices will now likely confront that question. If they reject the argument that there is an individual right to bear arms, then the D.C. law and other federal, state and local gun-control measures will be safe from the courts. But if the justices adopt the individual-rights view and strike down the D.C. restrictions, it will set off a wave of new lawsuits challenging the constitutionality of gun-control laws in cities and states nationwide. That doesn’t mean all those laws would be struck from the books. Even if the justices decide there is an individual right to bear arms, they conceivably could still uphold the D.C. ban as a reasonable measure to protect public safety. (Though not likely, there is a possibility that the court will decide the case without getting into any of these details. On a technicality, the justices could rule the Second Amendment does not apply to Washington, a federal enclave ultimately controlled by Congress, and leave it at that.)

Viewed from the streets of D.C., the colloquy over the Second Amendment can seem out of touch. It’s hard to argue that what Washington needs is more guns. So far this year, 169 people have been murdered in the city—77 percent of them victims of shootings. Heller, the man who brought the case, says statistics like that only reinforce his point. One day, he awoke to find a window of his Capitol Hill home punctured by a stray bullet. Another time, someone shot a hole near his front door. To Heller, who is licensed to carry a weapon for his job guarding federal buildings, the law has it backward. “I can protect [federal workers], but at the end of the day they say, ‘Turn in your gun, you can’t protect your home’.”

Gun-control advocates argue the trouble is that most people aren’t nearly as well trained as Heller. Studies show that rates of gun accidents, suicide and murder of family members are far higher in homes with firearms. Linda Singer, D.C.’s attorney general, agrees the gun ban hasn’t done enough to keep down street shootings. But without it, she says, “We would have far more guns in the city.”

As it is, getting a gun is absurdly easy in D.C., which is sandwiched between Maryland and Virginia, where handgun ownership is legal. The gun ban was never a concern when Sams went looking for a new weapon. He’d just call up friends in Maryland who would get him anything he wanted. “I know people with a gun license,” he says casually. “You just throw them a couple hundreds.”

URL: http://www.newsweek.com/id/72034

CE Week #14: “The Case For Facing Facts”

Why we need to acknowledge that the news from Iraq has been getting better.

NEWSWEEK

Updated: 1:12 PM ET Nov 24, 2007

I have been troubled by the reluctance of my fellow liberals to acknowledge the progress made in Iraq in the last six months, a reluctance I am embarrassed to admit that I have shared.

Giving Gen. David Petraeus his due does not mean we have to start saying it was a great idea to invade Iraq. It remains the terrible idea it always was. And the occupation that followed has been until recently a continuing disaster, causing the death or maiming of far too many American soldiers and Iraqi civilians.

Still, the fact is that the situation in Iraq, though some violence persists, is much improved since the summer. Why do liberals not want to face this fact, let alone ponder its implications?

The problem is one that I have seen cripple our political life again and again and that seems to grow steadily worse. Liberals and conservatives are equally guilty. Neither side wants to face facts that don’t fit its case.

Consider abortion. Too many pro-lifers and pro-choicers seem determined to ignore the other fellows’ points as they cling to their own rigid positions. And abortion is just one example.

Conservatives refuse to face the fact that free markets need to be regulated to guard against chicanery and to protect the health and safety of consumers, workers and the public in general. Liberals are too prone to see government as the solution, which of course it can be, and not as part of the problem, a role in which it has also demonstrated impressive potential.

I have yet to find a conservative who acknowledges that our lowest unemployment rates since World War II have come in years when we had the highest income-tax rates, but it is a fact. And I have yet to hear a liberal express regret that it was not one of our own who had the courage and imagination to challenge Soviet leaders “to tear down this wall.”

Conservative and liberal rigidity joined to create a tragic end to the war in Vietnam. Liberals became so antiwar that they could not admit that every South Vietnamese was not a closet Viet Cong; in fact, a significant number of them did not want to live under the communist North. The Nixon administration could not admit that South Vietnamese leaders were too inept to prevail. This meant that neither the administration nor its liberal critics planned for our exit. In our chaotic departure, we abandoned hundreds of thousands of South Vietnamese who could only escape across the South China Sea in boats so rickety that many did not survive. Many of those who could not flee languished for years in North Vietnamese prisons and “reeducation camps.”

This sad story should inspire us to face similar facts in Iraq. General Petraeus has proved that many Iraqis will respond to the kind of empathetic approach with which he has replaced the previous strategy of banging down doors and shooting first. At the same time, we have seen Iraq’s politicians remain unwilling to get their act together. I agree with other war critics who believe these politicians will be motivated to reconcile their differences only when they know we are going to leave on a date certain and they will no longer be able to dither endlessly under our protection in the Green Zone.

Nonetheless General Petraeus’s success provides important lessons. By talking to enemies like the Sunni tribal leaders and by taking his troops out of isolated bases and putting them into Baghdad neighborhoods where they could learn to understand the people and the people could see them as human beings, he has taught us how to deal effectively with insurgencies. And liberals should be the first to point out to George W. Bush that talking to our enemies is a good idea.

Finally, the Iraqis who have responded to General Petraeus remind us of our obligation to all Iraqis who have helped us. Even believing as firmly as I do that we must leave, I recognize our duty to try to do so in a way that poses the least danger to our friends. Above all, we should never repeat the shame of Vietnam. We should make plans now so that if the worst happens we can extricate the Iraqis who have stuck their necks out for us.

URL: http://www.newsweek.com/id/72030

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