CE Week #12: “Oil outlook bleak”
Americans must act now to alleviate shortages
November 15, 2007
The following editorial appeared Monday in the Dallas Morning News.
“I am sorry to say this, but we are headed toward really bad days,” a prominent energy economist told Time magazine last week. “Lots of targets have been set, but very little has been done. There is a lot of talk and no action.”
That was no alarmist talking. It was Fatih Birol, the chief economist for the International Energy Agency, an oil industry organization whose annual World Energy Outlook report is widely considered a reliable indicator of petroleum supplies. Released as the price of oil neared $100 a barrel, the 2007 forecast sent an urgent message to world governments: The days of cheap oil are probably over.
It’s not hard to understand why. The current daily supply of oil can barely cover world demand. With China and India rapidly industrializing, the International Energy Agency expects that the planet will require 116 million barrels daily by 2030 – an increase of more than 50 percent from today’s output – to slake its petroleum thirst.
Can increased production meet the expected demand? Depends on whom you talk to. Dallas oil tycoon T. Boone Pickens is one of the petroleum experts who believes that world oil production has peaked. If peak-oilers are right, there’s nowhere for the oil supply to go but down and nowhere but prices to go but up. Others, including the International Energy Agency, believe that the current shortage is critical but manageable with necessary adjustments in both production and consumption, as well as investments in research and development.
The permanent end of cheap oil not only would hit American consumers at the gas pump, but in just about every other way. Our consumer economy, for example, depends on the foreign-made goods shipped inexpensively from overseas manufacturers. The points of potential pain are endless. Moreover, there looms the threat of resource wars over dwindling supplies of a substance that no modern country can do without.
Now is the time to quit talking and start acting. Thoughtful Americans know that we can’t keep living like this forever. Our nation must start investing heavily in public transportation, domestic drilling and research into renewable energy sources and clean-coal technology.
Whether the world supply of oil has absolutely peaked or is not rising to meet demand because of human folly, there’s going to be a lot less of the black stuff around in the near future. And that’s going to hurt.
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Ouch.
That really made me depressed. I wish that they are wrong and that the peak-oilers are right and the price of oil goes back down because the price it is right now is killing my personal mulah stash.
I just hope they are not right. I really want the price to go back down, hopefully the conversion to green will go faster and the shortage will be an actual abundance and we won’t have to worry about oil ever again plus everyone will own hybrids.
Oil is something I was never interested in before I got my license and had to pay for my own gas. Now it takes me in a 01 chevy cavalier at least 50 dollars a week in gas. Which is horrible and that’s driving conservatively.
So every time I fill up I go to the cheapest but closest spot. Scrounge for change to pay for gas when I run out before payday. The price of gas has become something that I like knowing and notice that I don’t get as much gas when price goes up. $20 dollars used to fill my tank 5/8ths full now maybe 1/2 full if I am lucky.
I would love to carpool or take the bus but because of where I live that isn’t possible. I live out in the country and my life revolves around being able to drive off the bluff and anywhere I need to go.
I just hope they are wrong, because it really wasn’t that long ago that gas was just under $2.
Forgive me for writing a response to the shortest article on the blog at this moment in time…
But obviously. The rarer something gets the more expensive it will get. It would be one thing if the rarity was something like oh say, a food item. Like bananas. No problem there though, since we have plenty of other fruit to choose from. Do you see where I’m going with this? Yeah, yeah, I’m making an elementary school analogy here, I know. But they’re the rules of economics.
We should be concentrating a lot less on the waning oil supply and go instead to new ways to fuel our cars and trucks. I know we’ve heard that a thousand times but we have to or this whole running-out-of-oil thing is going to hurt big time.
This is what we get for burning a non-renewable source.
Moreover, there looms the threat of resource wars over dwindling supplies of a substance that no modern country can do without.
What do they mean a threat? We are essentially fighting two resource wars going on three. The fact that we are in Iraq is 1/10th about 9/11 1/10th about WMD’s is 1/10th about links to Osama Bin laden and is 7/10th about the black stuff. The ironic part about the whole thing is if anything the war raises the price of oil. Pulling out of the war would significantly decrease the demand on oil.
Our nation must start investing heavily in public transportation, domestic drilling and research into renewable energy sources and clean-coal technology.
I agree with this statement to no end. I have never been a huge proponent either way on the global warming debate because I think it is pretty irrelevant. The fact is burning oil is bad for our environment. Want proof, California? The fact is oil doesn’t grow over night. The fact is being dependent on foreign oil is bad for our country and our economy. My question is why we are subsidizing oil companies at all, and to research alternative fuels. Because make no mistake, we are. Personally I believe the way our country works it is necessary to be able to drive. Which is why I think Oil production should be taken out of the private sector.
I was falling asleep to some program on the TV the other night about the advances in alternative cars we have recently made. Towards the end of the show, there was a car that that was solar powered and another one that could run on air and be driven up to sixty miles an hour. I wasn’t listening all that well, but of course it was the free gas that found a way to seep into my sleep. I’m not sure, however, if this is something that has already been invented or just something that has been thought about and worked on. Either way, it gives me hope for the future of our oil issues that are clearly becoming far more serious. Since we cannot control the amount of supply, we have to lower the demand. People who can invest in these “dream cars” that use free fuel that is available to all, will help lower the cost of gas for everyone else who either cannot afford another car or maybe just won’t buy one out of their own laziness.
I personally think that this oil running out business is a load of crap. Yes it is probably starting to run out but not nearly like everybody says there is. The people who say it is running out are the people who run the oil companies who are making billions of dollars and its just ridiculous. Im sick of all the crap of production. Well maybe we should make some oil refineries or something. To say that Katrina is still affecting that is a joke. I don’t know, I’m just annoyed at all this crap because even as little as 5 or 6 years ago there was no worry about oil running out but now 5-6 years later it seems that were aren’t going to have any oil tomorrow. It also doubly sucks for me because I get 13 miles to gallon haha..whatever because I just saw a commercial for the new fuel cell honda and I think that would be a pretty solid investment
I agree with Nathan…partially. Oil may be running out, but it’s not nearly as bad as it sounds. The people that say it is a major problem are the people that control the oil business. If they say it’s bad the price will go up, then the oil companies will make more money. Katrina is probably still affecting this, but not to the level of severity that has been stated. Personally, I think that we should become less dependent on oil. It will eventually run out and we need to prepare for that so when it does we will be fine. Besides that, oil is bad for the environment. Alternate energy sources are great. Oil costs our country way too much, and ultimately causes a lot of problems. We are dependent on other countries to make ours run. Other countries can up the prices on oil, and if they are mad at us they could practially shut us down simply due to our dependence on their oil. Oil companies have made the price of oil riducoulsy high and it’s hurting the people. If we used alternate energy sources we would rid ourselves of the problem of depending on foreign oil, bad impacts on the economy, and environmental problems.
Public transportation. Hmm, sounds like a good idea in theory, but quite frankly, the last time that I saw a STA bus running by my house or just public transportation of any kind for that matter was ……. Oh wait, never! Carpooling, yeah, that sounds like a good idea in theory too, but people have so many activities and events packed into their schedule these days that it’s often times difficult to find a ride. And I’m not exactly keen on the idea of walking. Because last time I checked, it’s a long walk from my house to anywhere “public”. This is what we get for trying to industrialize. We pay the price, literally. Who knows if we really will be seeing as high of prices as they say we will. I guess we will just have to wait and see.
That oil is our number one concern is ridiculous. The media and big businesses have teamed up to portray any minor concern to our security or even personal lives as devastating and irreversible. In reality, the modern world, with its dangerous weaponry, extreme and diverse opinions, interconnected communications, porous borders, and elaborate transportation systems lends itself to a myriad of issues that can be naturally expected. The threat of oil depletion, in my opinion, actually ranks rather low on the list and while all may be important to address periodically, devoting the necessary attention and legislation to eliminating any of these concerns would be next to impossible and likely result in some sort of trade-off. As Mandy pointed out, Americans are logistically dependent on their personal automobiles and our nation is not likely to make a smooth transition to the proposed wide scale public transportation system or carpooling like Germany or other European countries exhibit. In fact, America’s dependence on the personal transportation system supersedes their dependence on oil. The reality of water or fat powered engines lingers in the wings so long as gas companies can profit from the dwindling, non-refundable resources. As soon as the public demands an alternative or the oil exploitation truly exhausts all of its sources, these new innovations shall come from the woodwork and the world will have only suffered a painful rise in prices while the last of the resources dissipated. In the long run, I think the faster we push through these shortages with increasing demand, the sooner we can move on and progress to recognizing the greater energy alternatives that large companies presently try to deny. As for the resource wars, they certainly pose the most supreme threat to the world as a result of the oil “crisis” but without such loaded media reports and hysteric hype over some natural shortages, maybe the barbaric struggles to hoard oil would start to ebb. It is like a bunch of kids fighting over shells in sandbox- can we please grow up and learn to share?