CE Week #11: “Looking for possible upsets ahead”
Carl Leubsdorf
Dallas Morning Herald
November 12, 2007
A year before Americans elect their next president, polls suggest that Hillary Rodham Clinton and Rudy Giuliani will be the nominees, the race will be close and Clinton starts with a modest advantage.
History says the unanticipated will disrupt that scenario.
In virtually every recent election, the outcome has not matched what seemed likely a year ahead of time. Many changes surprised the pundits and other self-styled experts (including columnists). And one of the few that came out the way that was forecast required a monthlong disputed recount and a Supreme Court decision, President Bush’s razor-thin triumph over Al Gore in 2000.
Some anointed front-runners quickly collapsed, from Democrat Edmund Muskie in 1972 to Democrat Howard Dean in 2004. Others barely known a year before the vote, like Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton, ended up as presidents.
Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton, whose re-elections had seemed in some doubt, won easily. Carter and George H.W. Bush lost re-election campaigns they started as favorites.
Inherent flaws undermined some candidates.
Howard Dean’s early 2004 lead stemmed from a weak field and his own success in Internet fundraising. But his lack of foreign policy experience and narrow liberal base helped doom him.
A generation earlier, Muskie misread how fervently Democrats wanted an anti-war candidate. Sen. George McGovern didn’t.
The first President Bush failed to grasp the country’s yearning to attend to its domestic agenda. Carter’s inability to cope with Iran’s capture of more than 60 U.S. diplomats underscored his weak leadership.
So what could upset the likely 2008 scenario? Here are some possibilities:
Democrats: No one has voted yet, and the primary results could undercut what most pundits forecast as a virtually inevitable Clinton nomination, starting with an upset in the Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses. As last week’s debate indicated, she faces two increasingly desperate rivals, Sen. Barack Obama and former Sen. John Edwards. It took only a modest misstep last week for many to question her inevitability.
A new controversy or scandal involving her husband, the former president, could remind some voters why they disliked the tumultuous Clinton years.
Absent that, people who realize that 20 years of Clintons or Bushes in the White House are enough might vote Republican, giving the GOP a narrow victory. Or enough independents might decide that, while not opposed to a woman president, they have sufficient doubts about this woman.
Republicans: All signs are that current support is soft. Giuliani’s national lead might vanish if former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney can parlay early victories in Iowa, New Hampshire and Michigan into unstoppable momentum.
A surprise victory by former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee in Iowa or Sen. John McCain in New Hampshire and mixed results elsewhere might muddle the GOP race even further. It even might produce a deadlocked convention and lead to a compromise nominee.
The GOP’s southern base might help former Sen. Fred Thompson revive what looks today to be a lagging campaign.
Democrats may be able to turn Giuliani’s assertive personality against him by portraying him as unpredictable, bull-headed and likely to continue the international adventurism of the Bush years.
And Giuliani’s nomination could lead to a conservative third party, draining off valuable GOP votes and making him uncompetitive with Clinton.
The Landscape: Events in the Middle East – or a terrorist attack at home – could transform the political playing field and affect what Americans want from their next president.
The Iraq war, which now looks like a drag on Republican prospects, could turn sharply better, turning a GOP negative into a positive – or at least a wash.
The Bush administration could decide to use force to eliminate Iran’s nuclear weapons potential, producing unforeseen circumstances that could affect either party race – or certainly the general election.
A significant economic downturn triggered by the housing slump would undercut Republican claims of a strong economy, adding one more reason for voters to make a change.
“The only thing we can count on is that there will be stuff happening that we have no way of anticipating,” analyst Charles Cook said.
And it wouldn’t take much to turn today’s likely scenario into a totally different outcome.
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This coming election is going to be an election to remember. Not only do we have another Clinton running, but one that is female and we also have an African American running. According to the report though, individuals like Hilary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani might not be the front runners when the election comes around. This is because over the course of history, the front runners from the year before tend to dissipate and lose the nomination and the election. Why does happen? I don’t know, but with that factor the candidates are going to have to manage their campaign extremely well and make sure that their presence is known throughout the remaining time until Election Day.
My opinion of what to come in the election is that the front runners will remain the front runners until the end. This is because I feel both Hilary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani are to strong of candidates for their fellow party members to beat out. However, upsets do occur and the nominations are anything but in the bag for the candidates.
The election in 2008 could be a very interesting election, but it could be the exact opposite. All the scenarios that were played out in this article were what ifs. Everything can be a what if when you actually think about. I do think the 2008 election will be an interesting but I really don’t know how things will play out until it actually happens. Everything that happens now is speculation, but I guess people kind of need speculation to think out different things that can happen during the election.
I do agree when Matthieu when he says the 2008 election will be one to remember. Bush seems to be struggling in the presidency, but it seems not to be affecting the republicans running for 2008 as much as it could. We have a woman running for the presidency and an African American. How many times do you think this will happen, it might depend on how the election plays out. I think we will just have to wait and see. Another thing, it says the front runner often falls, who know it might not happen in Hillary’s case, or it could happen and an unknown might become the front runner.
This is exactly why I don’t understand polling before the primaries have even started, you never know what will happen. As we saw in the War Room, a good campaign staff and a charasmatic character can come out of the woodwork and win both the nomination and the presidency. This election seems to be especially unusual, with a women, a Mormon, a Republican divorcee, a liberitarian, and potentially America’s first minority nominee. It’s exciting! This election has the potential to transform our definition of a typical president. Since there is no particular Republican with a strong lead in the polls, I am curious to see who will win the nomination (my money is on Romney). As for the Democrats, I am curious to see if Hillary will maintain her lead all through the primaries, or if another candidate will prevail at get the nomination. Either way, I have no doubt this will be an interesting election; if a Democrat wins, would it be a critical election and end the divided era of government?
Yes, this will probably be an election to remember. And personally I’m not opposed to a woman president. I’m simply opposed to Hillary. I personally wouldn’t mind having a “Clinton” in the white house per se. It dosen’t bother me as much as the people complaining about it.
Also, to be honest, I really don’t see Obama as an “African American,” because yeah, he’s half. HALF. And he speaks like a white man! I so want him to win, I’m not going to lie. He probably won’t though…
I’m kind of excited, myself. I have a good feeling that this president, whomever they may be, will turn the country around and at least clear the debris left by the Bush administration. It still bugs me that he lasted two terms. Because no one likes him. It’s funny how little attention the news has given to him. We’re so ready for the next era.
polling before the primaries really just leads to false hope in the people. I hope the Hilary keeps the lead but there’s no doubt that the events recently in her campaign might stop her from grabbing up the democratic ticket. I’m so pumped for the election and now I read this article that tells me knowing anything right now doesn’t matter its the polls right before the eletion that count. Great. Well that one bad thing about starting campaigns really early and front loading the primaries and caucuses.
In terms of democrats they have some bad candidate factors going on.
Hilary Clinton people worry she won’t win because she’s a woman, she would be the first woman president and they are worried that America is not ready to have a woman president.
With Obama people are not ready to have a African American president and with the views in the other article about if he wins he’ll be assassignated were interesting. Since the KKK is such a well organized supported hate group in America it’s quite possible that there would be many assaassination attempts. Edwards has had some bad campaigns other election year and I don’t know if he’ll pull a head of both Hirlary and Obama.
I also agree that this will be an election to remember. The field of candidates is very diverse, ranging from a woman to a half black half white man to a mormon to a former Law and Order actor. There are a lot of interesting stories and im sure some will be put in to play before it is all said and done. The idea that the front runners tend to fall out of favor and lose is seeming to already take affect. Hillary Clinton who is supposedly ahead by around 20 percent in the polls is slipping up badly and allowing some of her fierce competitors to gain some valuable ground. On the republican side you have Guiliani out front but it also doesn’t seem for long as Mitt Romney could possibly upset and gain the nomination and even Mike Huckabee could pull a “slick willie” and take a surprising second and throw a nice uncle charlie 12-6 curveball in to the whole mix. The whole idea about the country not being ready for a woman or a half black president is a load of crap in my opinion. I’m going out on a limb early and predicting a Ba-ROCK versus Romney for the general election.