CE Week #8: “Clinton’s rivals cite electability”
Some say candidacy will energize GOP
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Jill Zuckman
Chicago Tribune
October 21, 2007
WHEAT RIDGE, Colo. – Steve Valdez, a retired high school history teacher, is keeping an eye on the presidential campaign and wondering about Sen. Hillary Clinton’s chances.
“Is history ready?” asks Valdez, an independent voter, unsure whether voters will embrace the former first lady for president.
With Clinton consolidating her lead over Sen. Barack Obama and former Sen. John Edwards, her Democratic rivals are increasingly questioning her ability to win the White House in a general election. They say her polarizing persona will keep her from defeating a Republican, hoping the seeds of doubt they plant now will cause voters to look their way come primary or caucus day.
Ever since Clinton stepped onto the presidential stage with her husband, she has been a lightning rod on the right and sometimes the left. She offended some women when she defended her decision to work, saying, “I suppose I could have stayed home and baked cookies and had teas.” She raised eyebrows when the public learned she had turned $1,000 into $100,000 from cattle futures trading. And she became a political target when she tried to overhaul the health care system with closed-door meetings.
Her opponents argue that Clinton engenders such hostile feelings that she will energize Republicans against her and other Democratic candidates, particularly in swing states such as Colorado. Already, the Republican National Committee is taking aim at Clinton multiple times a day while virtually ignoring her rivals.
The question of electability is often tied up in a candidate’s likability, and in Clinton’s case it could also be an alternative way of asking whether a woman can be elected president. It is a loosely defined but fundamentally important part of the formula for a winning candidate.
“I think there’s no doubt that she carries some significant baggage,” said David Axelrod, Obama’s chief strategist, adding that her high negative ratings would only get worse in a general election. “I guess water sometimes runs upstream, but the history of presidential politics is not that people go in and reduce their unfavorables. That’s not the way it works.”
David Bonior, Edwards’ campaign manager, said Republicans will “unload on her” in a general election, dredging up “the personal stuff.”
“There are just a lot of local state officials and activists who are very nervous about having her at the head of the ticket,” Bonior said. “They think she will be the catalyst to unite the Republican Party with great fervor, they believe she will be a tremendous drag on the ticket and that we will forfeit the opportunity to make gains in the Congress, state legislatures and gubernatorial seats.”
However, Clinton campaign officials say Obama and Edwards are losing the so-called electability argument, as poll after poll shows the New York senator beating not just them, but each of the Republican candidates.
A new Gallup poll shows 50 percent of Democrats support Clinton, compared to just 21 percent for Obama and 13 percent for Edwards. A CNN poll finds 45 percent of voters believe she is most likely to win the general election – far more than any other candidate. And the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute shows Clinton beating each of the Republican candidates in the key battlegrounds of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
“I think you’re seeing a higher level of frustration and desperation,” said Mark Penn, Clinton’s chief strategist, of Obama and Edwards.
How Clinton would fare next November is an open question here in Colorado, a state that denied John Kerry a win in 2004 while handing Democrats victories in a string of recent congressional, legislative and gubernatorial races.
Pat Waak, the Colorado Democratic chairwoman, is optimistic that any of the Democratic candidates can carry the state, noting that Republicans’ numerical advantage over Democrats has dropped 25 percent over the last three years and unaffiliated voters seem frustrated with the status quo.
“What I hear from (Republicans) is their disenchantment with the war in Iraq, the budget deficit and the feeling that their party has been taken away from them by extremists,” she said.
Dick Wadhams, on the other hand, said he can hardly wait for Clinton to win the nomination. The state Republican chairman believes Clinton will harm the chances of Rep. Mark Udall, D-Colo., who is running for Senate.
“I think she’s going to be an albatross to any Democratic candidate in Colorado in a competitive seat,” Wadhams said. “I’m looking forward to Hillary Clinton being nominated president of the United States in downtown Denver in August 2008 with Mark Udall standing by her side and every (Democratic) candidate for the Legislature saying, ‘Why on Earth did we bring this convention to Colorado?’ “
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Is Hillary electable? I don’t know.
We’ve talked in class a lot about how the average American citizen would say that they would elect a woman for president, or perhaps an African American but when it comes down to it they may not follow through. For one I think most people haven’t thought the idea through too much (being that it’s only October and the election is not for a year month and all…) and I don’t know that anyone is ready to commit to saying that they definitely would not elect a woman president.
For Hillary it seems like people love her or love to hate her, there’s not really an in-between. I know quite a few who fall into the latter category and would not under any circumstances vote for her in an election of any size. But according to the data a fair amount of citizens support her despite being a woman, a former first lady and all that other non-sense.
I for one think it’s good that a woman has decided to quit lounging around the house and stay home and bake cookies and has stepped it up to try to take over the most prestigious job in America.
Response to Emily Howard
I think Emily bring up a good point. 50% of the Democratic Party is supporting her right now, put when it comes down to having to vote would they follow through? Is America ready for a woman president? And say that she does get the democratic nominee, would the loyal democrats stay loyal for a woman? These are all great question because were at an era of change and this is a big one.
She has made some insulting comments about women just staying at home. But I think she is justified. We are coming into an era where men shouldn’t have to be the breadwinners, we’re moving from tradition. Though many don’t agree it will happen. What I am most worried about is what other countries will think. Other countries don’t respect women the way our country does. They would frown upon the fact that a woman is a leading our country and I don’t think they would take us seriously. It would make us look weak, no offence to women and Hilary because I think she is very qualified.
I am very interested to see what happen in the primaries. Right now we have an African American and a woman leading in the polls. If one of them wins what will happen in the general election. Are democrats still going to be favored to win it?
As soon as Hillary decided to run, it pretty much turned everything upside down…and then Obama decided to run (maybe not in that order but whatev). This is a huge step in American history because there is the chance of having the first female or black president. Sadly I think that people think more about this issue than the stance that they take on the real issue that matter to our country. Is Hillary electable? Yes I think so. I don’t really see why we can have a female President. Hillary is not whimpy by any means. Listening to her and knowing her through years of politics you can tell that she is a driven individual who knows what she wants and how to get it. She’d accomplished a lot in her political career. I mean if 50% of the people are saying that they would like Hillary to run over Obama and Edwards then there has to be people out there who support her. Also I would seriously be disheartened if the other 50% of democratic people would choose to vote republican just for the fact they don’t want a female President (I can understand if they relate to the republican candidate better though). I would hope that by adding those supporters we would have a good chance at the white house. Honestly I wish people could see Hillary and Obama for there stances on issue, their platform and their experiences rather than their appearance.
I agree and disagree with Rory. I agree with Rory that Hillary Clinton is capable of running for President and the polls say that 50% of people support her. So it seems that she has supporters, but like you said will they follow through? It is too early for people to determine who they will vote for. One day they will want to vote for Hillary, but the next day they might vote for Barack Obama. The numbers do not determine anything; they can change as fast as people mind’s can. I disagree about how other countries will think about having a woman as President. I do not think that other countries will undermine us because we have a woman as our leader. Margaret Thatcher became the first woman Prime Minister of Great Britain and she introduced a new era of woman leading countries. Thatcher was a great leader in Britain and her leadership caused countries to treat woman with a new kind of respect. If Hillary Clinton became the first woman president, I do not think we would have to worry about how countries will think of us. I am looking forward to seeing the results of the primaries. Whoever the Democrats nominate, it is going to be an exciting election.
The 2008 election year has brought about many possible changes and involves some “firsts”. The first woman presidential candidate and the first African-American presidential candidate were the shockers that have shaken the political ground. The main topic of this article though, is whether or not, Hillary Clinton has good electability. Honestly, I have no stinkin’ clue if she does or not!! But it does make for interesting conversation!
There are many reasons why people wouldn’t vote for Hillary and there are a couple reasons why they would. First of all, the American public could bring up things about her past when her husband was in office. That could make things sticky and could tarnish her presidential campaign. Another thing is that the people of the United States might just not be ready for the first woman president. We might be ready, but we might not be ready for Hillary. Then of course, people may not agree with her stances on certain issues which obviously would lead to them not voting for her. As for why people would vote for her…. The only thing I can think of is people saying, “Oh hey. A woman is running for president? It’s Hillary Clinton? HA! I’ll vote for her.”
We won’t know what the outcome of this presidential election is going to be for a very long time. But when it’s over, I hope our country is ready for whatever is handed to us!
I think that when the article said that she would be the catalyst that would unit the Republican party. Right now the Republicna candidates are trying to creat a new and different campaing that seperates them as far away from Bush as posible. The are all doing it in very different ways and at this point it seems like it would be a little more of a miracle if a Repubican get elected into the white house next. Thats simple because a fair majority associate all the new Republican candidates with Bush which is a negative thing for them. So like the article said if Hillary was to get the Democratic nominie for president it would not only unite the Republican party together just to beat her. But it would bring the voter in to help support them. Even though Hillary is ahead in the polls thus far it looks like she will hit some big stubling blocks soon. She just raises alot of eyebrows in bad way and that could turn agianst her very shortly. That would make it very easy for a respectable Republican candidate to sneak past her in the general election once everybody start to focus on her negatives and not all of her positive traits. I would much rather Obama or Edwars get the Democratic nominee.
This topic was interesting. Emily put it perfectly, “For Hillary it seems like people love her or love to hate her, there’s not really an in-between.” It is so true. You either hear that people lover her or that people will “move to Canada if Hillary becomes President.” All I can say is that with 50% support, Canada is going to get a lot of immigrants. Also, I would have to agree with Melissa. She said that she doesn’t believe that “other countries will undermine us because we have a woman as our leader.” She brought up a great point about Margaret Thatcher. In this day and age there is some anti-feminine people, but on the whole we would do just fine because and Shauna said, “Hillary is not whimpy by any means. Listening to her and knowing her through years of politics you can tell that she is a driven individual who knows what she wants and how to get it. She’d accomplished a lot in her political career.” Hillary has had a lot of experience. But I would have to disagree with what Shauna said about people not voting for her just because she’s a woman. Yes, some will do that, but not as much, in my opinion. Many people just hate Hillary for who she is. Many people keep thinking that Hillary will scandalize like her husband. Many people are just tired of the Clinton family and don’t want any more to do with them. There are more reasons to not vote for Hillary besides the fact that she’s a woman.
SSemb
In response to Emily…
I have to agree with Emily about Hillary. “I for one think it’s good that a woman has decided to quit lounging around the house and stay home and bake cookies and has stepped it up to try to take over the most prestigious job in America.” Its really funny she said that though because Hillary said something along those lines and actually got a lot of criticism for it. People seem to target her just because she is a woman. To the point of how we talked about how people might not follow through with a vote for her even if they like her, I think is a big problem. I think a lot of people like her ideas and stances on issue but then will get to the voting booth and run into difficulty with the fact she is female. Like I said before, I really wish that people would just view her in the same way. Yes if she was elected it would be a big change but how do we evolve without change? I also agree with Emily about how it seems that people either love Hillary or love to hate her. It seems like extremes. I guess its just going to come down to election and I honesty don’t know if people will give her a chance…
Reading articles about the candidates and following their campaigns, the politically informed readily forget how ignorance coats the rest of the American population. Eager to dismiss the notion of idiot voters, however, leads to the emergence of educated elite bestowing upon themselves an obligation to rule. In the case of Hilary Clinton, it is important to remember that a large percentage cast their ballot based on name recognition only. Whether of a positive or negative intention, media reporters frequent Hilary as a source of public attention, only aiding in developing her popularity. As they toss around the name, voters latch onto the following that she already inherited from a convenient marriage and previous position as First Lady. Despite his scandals that Leslie cites as potential for backlash, Bill Clinton’s presidency generated a high popularity rating and united factions of the Democratic Party and even some Republicans. Now, the nation stands at a crossroad. Republicans divided by the Iraq war and extremists, Democrats eagerly attempting to tackle two firsts, and an increasingly prevalent moderate crowd standing up for bipartisanship amalgamate to make this election especially unique. Because of the latter group and the absence of true policy voting, polls this early in the race represent an indeterminate choice: Hilary Clinton. As the big day draws closer, her wavering support may begin to reveal truer colors and crumble, fearing the gravity of a woman president. All these factors contribute to the drama to ensue and the importance of following the candidate’s campaigns in the coming months.
I agree with Shauna (kind of). I think that people should try and give Hillary a chance, rather than just looking at her as “the possible female President”. I’m not much of a fan of her but I think that people focus on that too much rather than listening to what she thinks and believes. Also about the quote about a woman finally getting “out of the kitchen” is true. I think it’s good that she has done so much and fought the stereo types but I do know that it’s true that she did create controversy with a comment about that but I don’t know exactly what it was. I think that she needs to watch what she says because it think that she needs to get away from the “only woman” image. However she doesn’t really have many other images to go to. I don’t like the fact that her husband is Bill Clinton. I think that this image could hurt her a lot because obviously not many people like Bill’s moral values. Also I think I heard some where that in some of her stances that she plans on spending a lot of money to do different things and honestly right now we don’t need to be spending money since we’re so far in debt anyways. Altogether people need to try and view her as her stances and issues not because of her gender, however; I still wouldn’t vote for her for different reasons.