CE Week #6: “GOP optimism well-based”
David Broder
Washington Post
October 7, 2007
The day had been full of ominous warnings. Polls showed the Republicans on the losing side of almost every issue and the 2008 presidential race – and now they’re forced to defend a veto of a popular children’s health bill.
But Tom Cole, the 58-year-old Oklahoma representative who this year took on the responsibility for running the GOP’s congressional campaign, is remarkably sanguine.
He had been reading about the Washington Post/ABC News poll showing that Hillary Rodham Clinton had established a commanding lead for the Democratic presidential nomination and was beating Rudy Giuliani, the current Republican front-runner, by 51 percent to 43 percent.
The same poll showed President Bush’s approval rating at 33 percent, equaling his historic low, and congressional Republicans at 29 percent, the lowest ever recorded for them. Democrats are trusted more than Republicans when it comes to handling Iraq, health care, the economy and the federal budget, the poll said, and the two parties are tied on terrorism – supposedly the Republicans’ strong suit.
So how could he be reasonably satisfied with his party’s prospects? The answer: The Democrats are also looking like dogs.
The approval score for their party in Congress has sunk to 38 percent – down 10 points since a poll taken just before the 2006 election that gave the Democrats their first congressional majority since 1994.
Congress as a whole rated only 29 percent approval, down 14 points from its start in January. By 82 percent to 16 percent, those polled said it has accomplished little or nothing this year. Half blame Bush and the Republicans; a quarter, the Democrats; and another fifth, both parties.
Cole, who admits Republicans hurt themselves in 2006 with scandals and out-of-control spending, said the poll confirms a comment from a Republican colleague. Speaking of the Democrats, he said, “My God, they’re dragging themselves down to our level.”
It all adds up, Cole said, to a political environment reminiscent of 1992 – a tough year for entrenched incumbents of both parties who suddenly saw their margins shrink or disappear. “The American people are rising up in disgust,” Cole said, “and incumbents will pay. It’s not anti-Republican anymore. It’s anti-Washington.”
Cole argues that the House Democratic leadership has made a strategic error by wielding its narrow majority to craft partisan bills that invite a Bush veto. That was the case with several resolutions to shorten the Iraq war, and it will be the case later with a series of appropriations bills. Polarization is exactly what the voters hate, Cole said; they are looking for cooperation and agreement.
But the crucial question at the moment, politically, is Bush’s veto of the SCHIP bill – the $35 billion expansion of the State Children’s Health Insurance Program. The Post poll found 72 percent approval for this measure, which would add 4 million children to the ranks of the insured.
Cole claims that Republicans will be protected by asserting that they favor the concept and are prepared to support a less expensive compromise.
I’m more persuaded by his argument that Republicans have little to fear from a Hillary Clinton candidacy. “That is no landslide election,” he said. “The Republican nominee, whoever he is, wins at least 43-44-45 percent against her, and that gives us a base for congressional races.”
Cole has history on his side. In 1992, he notes, incumbents were hammered, 24 of them losing in November, another 17 failing in their primaries. The Republicans achieved a net gain of 10 House seats that year, a feather in the cap of the executive director of the National Republican Congressional Committee, Tom Cole.
In 1992, the Democrats nominated Bill Clinton for president – and he won. But his party lost House seats. Cole is out to make history repeat itself.
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I completely agree with Broder. America is not simply sick of the republican party. It is sick of Washington! Most would think that the democrats have the upper hand in the election. But look, we voted Bush in for a second term. We cannot be completely anti-republican. Republicans are not too keen about any of the democratic candidates either. However, republican, moderate, or democrat everyone disaproves of the Bush Administration. So what’s to come? I think the people will either elect a new face, or someone very experienced. The people are sick of the continual game between republicans and democrats. Both party’s approval ratings are low. The election will be very interesting. America wants a new face. It might not matter which party the candidates comes from. just their views on how to fix, or make things different fromt eh Bush Administration. Whoever can do that the best will win the support of the American people. The race will be close because everyone has different views on what is right for America. That’s what will make this election so interesting. It may or may not draw more people to the polls. They might vote because they really want change. On the other hand they might not because Americans are fed up with politicians. They will be tired of the election before it even gets here.
I support the idea of the SCHIP bill. “the $35 billion expansion of the State Children’s Health Insurance Program.” I think that it would be awesome to support another four million children with health insurance. I just don’t understand the logistics. Where is the money going to come from? Will it be taxed on every day people, like on something like gas or groceries? That is not fair. The taxes they pay won’t benefit them. The question comes up, how we will get the money for this program. If you could tax something like candy or toys that are bought for children it would make a lot of sense. On the other issue about approval ratings, I agree neither party has great approval (in the congress or the Senate). “By 82 percent to 16 percent, those polled said it has accomplished little or nothing this year. Half blame Bush and the Republicans; a quarter, the Democrats; and another fifth, both parties.” This is interesting but not very surprising. I read an article this summer saying the same thing and I don’t think that it has changed at all. What congress needs to do is start compromising so we can get things done for the good of this country.
Wow how could there be an upside to all this. The Republican Party is looks like crap. Why would they reject a bill that would help children’s health insurance/ I know that bush is trying to conserve so why doesn’t he conserve all those troops in Iraq instead of something that we need like health insurance. The only reason thing are looking up of the GOP is because the democrats are also struggling, mainly in Congress. Liberal runs Congress right now and they have just dropped 10 point since 2006.
It looks like Rudy Giuliani is the front-runner in for the Republican Party and is still behind Hilary Clinton who is winning the Democratic Party. Democrats are trusted more than republican on issue like health care and the Iraqi war. This is because republican are in power and have not done the job they way people want it to be done. Plus they are spending their money in the wrong way.
Republican is not only having trouble at the presidential level, but also at state and local level. We had the issue with the Alaskan representative involved in a bribe. We also had the problem with senator Craig. Thing are not look good for either parties, but this isn’t the time for Democrats to start messing up.
Well thats a new idea I havent heard before and I must say that I agree with it. I have just been thinking that Americans in generall are sick of Bush and sick of the Republicans. But after reading this article I agree that people are not just sick of Republicans they are sick of Democrats and government as a whole. In the last year or so I would always think that no matter what the next president of the U.S. was going to be a Democrat. I didn’t even care if it was a man or women, white or black. I just always assumed it would be a Democrat no matter what. No I see that all America wants it change. The people want a new face in the white house and it doesn’t make a difference if they are a Republican or a Democrat. It’s going to be about what they change and make better from what Bush did. Most people want a president that is the complete 180 of bush. So whatever candidate does this the best and makes that clear to the public will win this years election. This years election should be a great one to be put into the record books. The race is as wide open as it has ever been with no incumbant president or vice president. All the candidates are new and are all very different.