CE Week #5: “Poll Shows Giuliani Atop An Unsettled GOP Race”
Ex-Mayor Gets High Marks on Leadership
By Dan Balz and Jennifer Agiesta
Washington Post Staff Writers
Wednesday, October 3, 2007; A06
Rudolph W. Giuliani leads the race for the GOP presidential nomination, with Republican voters describing him as the field’s strongest leader and most electable candidate in the 2008 general election, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll.
But the Republican contest remains unsettled just three months before the first votes will be cast, and in comparison with fellow New York politician Hillary Rodham Clinton, Giuliani is a far less solid front-runner. He has double the support of his nearest rival, but a majority of those who support him do so only “somewhat.” At the same time, his advantages on key attributes are smaller today than they were earlier in the campaign, reflecting continued uncertainty among Republicans about their choices in the presidential race.
The poll also marked an interruption in what had been a slow but steady rise in support for Fred D. Thompson. The former senator from Tennessee nearly doubled his support from April to early September as he prepared to enter the race, but he has not picked up additional backing since.
Giuliani topped the Republican field with 34 percent, with Thompson at 17 percent and Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) at 12 percent in the new poll. Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney was in fourth with 11 percent but has continued to make strong showings in polls testing the crucial early contests in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee took 8 percent, his best showing in a Post-ABC poll. Rep. Ron Paul (Tex.) had 3 percent; Rep. Duncan Hunter (Calif.), 2 percent; and Sen. Sam Brownback (Kan.) and Rep. Tom Tancredo (Colo.), 1 percent.
McCain has slipped somewhat over the past month, dipping to his lowest level of the year. Early last month, Giuliani led with 28 percent and McCain trailed with 18 percent; Thompson was at 19 percent. But other findings in the new poll showed McCain holding up well against the other candidates, despite the severe turbulence his campaign experienced over the summer.
In perhaps the clearest sign of why the race remains muddled, there was no consensus as to which candidate best reflects the party’s core values. McCain scored 26 percent on this question, even though he has parted with the party’s base on immigration and campaign finance revisions. Giuliani registered at 23 percent and Thompson 21 percent. Romney was cited by 13 percent.
Giuliani’s lead in the GOP race is tightly wrapped with views of his performance after the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. Nearly all Republicans said he did a “good” or “excellent” job responding to the attacks, with a majority calling his performance excellent. Most also said they believe his performance is a good indicator of what kind of president he would be.
Among those who believe he excelled after the attacks, and among those who say those skills translate easily to the presidency, Giuliani holds a lead of more than 30 percentage points over his rivals.
Half of those surveyed named Giuliani as the most electable Republican in the field, a slight dip from where he was in earlier polls. More significant perhaps is that no other GOP candidate comes close on an issue of vital important to a demoralized party worried about the elections. In February, for example, 55 percent cited Giuliani as the most electable but 34 percent named McCain. In the new poll, 15 percent named McCain and 13 percent cited Thompson as the party’s best hope for holding the White House.
Forty-seven percent called Giuliani the strongest leader, compared with 20 percent for McCain. He also led on the question of which Republican would be most likely to reduce partisanship in Washington. Before Thompson officially entered the race last month, an even bigger percentage saw Giuliani as the field’s strongest leader.
But in contrast with Clinton, who clearly topped her main rivals on all the major attributes considered in the survey, Giuliani was not an across-the-board winner among the Republicans. For example, he and McCain were deadlocked at 26 percent each on which candidate was the most honest and trustworthy.
Giuliani’s advantage was more evident on the question of whom Republicans trust to deal with a series of issues. By varying margins, the former mayor led on terrorism, the economy, health care and immigration. On handling Iraq, 37 percent trust Giuliani most; 31 percent put more faith in McCain.
More curious was that Giuliani led on whom Republicans trust to handle social issues. Despite his support for abortion rights and gay rights, 41 percent of those surveyed cited Giuliani as the one they trust, with Thompson a distant second at 18 percent. There was no clear explanation for that finding, given a previous Post-ABC News poll that showed concern among many Republicans about Giuliani’s positions on those issues. But the poll did not specify which “social issues” respondents should consider.
Republicans continue to prize strength and experience over new ideas and a new direction, and Giuliani is the clear favorite of that part of the party.
The latest poll came during a month in which Giuliani raised his profile nationally and internationally. He sharply criticized Clinton and the liberal group MoveOn.org after MoveOn attacked Army Gen. David H. Petraeus, the commander of U.S. forces in Iraq, as “General Betray Us.” The exchange was one way for Giuliani to signal to Republicans that he is prepared and even eager to take on Clinton, if the two end up as their party’s nominees next year.
The latest poll was conducted by telephone Sept. 27-30 among a random national sample of 1,114 adults, which included interviews with 398 self-identified Republicans and GOP-leaning independents. The margin of sampling error for the Republican sample is plus or minus five percentage points.
Polling director Jon Cohen contributed to this report.
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Hm. Well, this was a bit surprising, considering that Guiliani isn’t my first choice. Then again, I don’t exactly decide the election results.
But anyway, doesn’t Guiliani support many Democratic platforms–such as abortion and gay marriage? Shouldn’t those things factor in to people’s opinions of how well this guy supports Republican ideals? I’m still voting for Mitt Romney, and am still keeping my fingers crossed that he wins the Republican nomination.
On the other hand, Hillary Clinton’s gaining widespread support from the Democrats is quite worrisome. Yes, I know I’m a woman and as a female I need to support the female Presidential candidate, but her values are in direct conflict with mine. Not only that, but I don’t think she’d be a good President.
As it stands, I’m hoping that Mitt Romney wins the election. But, if that doesn’t happen and it ends up being Clinton vs. Guiliani, I’ll pray that America votes Republican once more.
And if that doesn’t happen, I’m moving to Switzerland.
As a liberal, I am glad to see Giuliani doing well in the polls. I favor him over the other Republicans, mainly because he has some liberal tendencies, such as supporting gay rights and being pro-choice. While he may not have the most experience on a national level, I think that he is a pretty good man and could do alright in the White House, despite his being a Yankee fan.
It really is not surprising to me that Giuliani is ahead right now for the Republicans. He is a good campaigner and appeals well to the masses, largely because of September 11, and his handling of the attacks. He has also maintained an extremely good image since that time with his frequent appearances on television and in movies that has further improved his image as a friendly, overall good guy. To me, this is key for a politician when running for office; if people don’t like a politician’s personality, they probably will not vote for him or her. Giuliani has a lot of momentum right now, and it is most likely that he will get the nomination. (Despite his current standing in Iowa and New Hampshire, I don’t see Mitt Romney closing the gap.)
I really like that Giuliani is the frontrunner of the GOP race. It makes me think I might even vote republican come 2008. Even though he is a republican he does have a lot of left leaning ideals that I think would be a really refreshing thing for our country. It really surprised me that Giuliani has so much support despite his very liberal views on abortion and gay rights. You’d think people in the south would be screaming their disapproval and lifting up Huckabee, but I guess not. It also surprised me that Mit Romney has fallen behind in the polls. It seemed that over the summer, he was the best the republicans had. I doubt that most evangelical Christians will be able to get passed the Mormon thing though. He’ll probably be a contender but I really don’t think he’ll get pass the primary. I also think that Giuliani would do a really great job in the white house. He is a great leader and did amazing things for New York. I hope that more jump on his band wagon and he continues to push his lead.
I thought this was also I great article about public opinion. Now that we’ve read about these polls in class, I feel like I can put a little more stock in polling. With a margin of error at 5 percent, I’m glad to see the results that were found.
I’m all for Rudolph Giuliani being the republican nominee for president. When he was governor in New York and the World Trade Centers were attacked everything seemed like they would get done when they need to get done. He was on site as soon as possible and this is exactly what we need as a president when we are trying to fight a war. I also hear that he is very popular among republicans in other areas of expertise. This whole article is mainly about how Giuliani leads everywhere in the polls and is most likely to face Hillary in the presidential race after this is all is done. My side might just be one sided for the reason that I like how Giuliani makes decisions and acts in the face of adversary and gets things done when they need to get done. In the end, I believe that Giuliani would make a great president, but Hillary has just a good shot if not better.
RE: Everyone
Oh great. This only convinces me I won’t vote for Guiliani come next November if he wins the nomination.
I thought the whole point of elections was to vote for the person in your party who agrees with your ideals and who holds to the values of your party. (Which is why pro-choice, pro-gay rights people usually vote Democrat.)
Not that I’m insulting you guys. If you’re Democrats or whatever, great. I’m an Independent myself, but I thought I’d vote Republican–until now.
Why the heck are we campaigning for a guy who supports so many ideals most Republicans are opposed to? If people in the other party support your candidate…well, I say that he’s not really YOUR candidate.
If Guiliani wins, I’ll probably vote Independent. I’m not voting for a guy who supports so many things I’m opposed to just because he’s Republican.
I agree with Corbin when he says that Rudi Giuliani would be a great leader in the White House. At the beginning of all the campaigns and everything I think that Giuliani was the only republican candidate that I knew. The first time I saw him was during all the chaos of the terrorist attacks on 9/11. That is one of the reasons I think he would do a great job if he were to be President. In my opinion he handled the attacks and everything that was going on very well. Like Corbin said I like the fact that Giuliani is the front runner in the GOP race, but I didn’t really have many doubts that he would be. Well, in the top two at least. I thought that it was interesting that 41 percent of people had surveyed saying that Giuliani is the one they trust, and that the guy closest to him only had 18 percent.
Again, like Corbin, I liked this article because of the public opinion. Having just learned about it in class makes this article easier to understand, not that it is a hard topic, but now that I know what is going on for sure it makes things a lot nicer. – Matt Powles
Corbin and Baker, you have been sucked into the whole Giuliani helped New York recover from 9/11 idea. Both of you bring up that Giuliani helped New York after the tragic attacks of the World Trade Center. Yes, Rudy did do a good job, but wouldn’t any Mayor do the same if they were in Giuliani’s shoes? If New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg was mayor at the time and decided to run for president, everyone would be supporting him. Frankly I don’t care that Giuliani was mayor during the attacks. People like you two only support him because he did a good job after the attacks. And whether he actually did do that good of a job has been a point of contention between him and his critics. Many of his critics say that he failed to prepare the city adequately before the 9/11 attacks. Giuliani ignored the recommendations of police and emergency management experts who advised him not to put the city’s emergency command center in the World Trade Center because it was a presumed terrorist target following the 1993 bombing. Many firemen say that a lot more firemen could have been saved on that day if Giuliani had equipped the firemen with working two way radios. In addition, there are many first responders who have died or who are suffering serious health problems because of the fumes and dust that they were exposed to due to the amount of time they spent at Ground Zero. Giuliani should have sure they had proper equipment instead seeking the limelight and making a whole bunch of speeches during that time. I hope that Giuliani loses because everyone has this image in their head that since he was able to guide NY in the aftermath of 9/11, he will do amazing things. I think many of the firemen, policemen and other first responders who were at the World Trade Center on 9/11 would agree with me that maybe he is not the best man for the job of President of the United States.
If this man is one of the most electable republican candidates, the former juggernaut called the “Grand Old Party”, has really gone down the drain. Seriously, have you seen this guy give a speech? He’s alright for a little bit, but after every five seconds or so, he opens his eyes really, really wide. I just can’t take him seriously.
But in all seriousness, Rudy has had quite the career. He has been a lawyer, businessman, and politician. He’s been a democrat, an independent, and now he’s a liberal republican.
As much as I dislike the man, Rudy has done some good in his career. Through gun control (liberal), he has brought crime down, a lot, in the very populated state of New York. Even currently, his policies are being survived by successor Mike Bloomberg. And even though Bloomberg considers himself an independent, Republicans have to admit that the policy actually worked. Crime rate fell substantially.
Rudy started getting a lot of recognition after the September 11 attacks. He made many appearances on radio and news stations, and many Americans started looking at him as a sort of “father figure”(and I use that term loosely), for New York. What angers me about that situation, is that he was on the Time magazine for person of the year, he was knighted by Queen Elizabeth II, and it catapulted him to being a presidential candidate. Don’t get me wrong, he’s not too bad of a candidate, but does he really deserve all this? What did he really do? He prevented a suicide attempt? Did he prevent the 9/11 attacks all together? I just don’t see why he deserves all of the attention that he had earned.