CE Week #5: “Death toll falls sharply for soldiers, civilians”
Joshua Partlow
Washington Post
October 2, 2007
BAGHDAD – The number of U.S. soldiers and Iraqi civilians reported killed across the country last month fell to their lowest levels in more than a year, a sharp decrease in violent deaths that American military officials attribute in part to the thousands of additional soldiers who arrived here this year.
The death toll for Iraqi civilians fell sharply in September, according to Iraqi government and U.S. military figures. One count from Iraq’s Health Ministry put the monthly death toll at 827 civilians, a 48 percent drop from the total in August, according to an official who spoke on condition of anonymity because he is not authorized to release the statistics.
The Associated Press reported that at least 988 civilians, government workers and Iraqi security personnel were killed in September, a 50 percent drop from its 1,975 total in August.
The downward trend among victims of violence was mirrored by dropping fatalities among U.S. soldiers. By month’s end, at least 66 U.S. soldiers were killed, the lowest monthly total since 65 died in August 2006, and about half the number who died during the deadliest month this year, according to icasualties.org, a Web site that tracks military deaths in Iraq.
U.S. military officials expressed optimism Monday about the declining death tolls, particularly because the reduction comes during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, a time when violence has risen in past years. But they warned that insurgent groups such as al-Qaida in Iraq remain lethal and are likely planning for a counteroffensive of violent attacks.
“And we have seen such an uptick in the number of attacks recently in the last few days, but it has not been either at the level of intensity or the severity or the numbers that we’ve had before,” Rear Adm. Mark Fox, a U.S. military spokesman, told reporters in Baghdad. “We think that they’re still dangerous, but we also feel that we have been doing the kinds of operations that have kept al-Qaida off balance.”
Calculating civilian deaths in the war has always been imprecise. The U.S. military uses a methodology that includes tallying deaths that soldiers encounter directly, plus reported deaths from Iraqi government sources that are not always verified. The anonymous and isolated nature of many killings, along with the Muslim custom of burying victims rapidly, mean not all deaths are reported.
The Health Ministry statistics provided to the Washington Post, for example, rely on counts from Iraqi morgues, a measure that excluded bodies that families bury directly.
To compound the confusion, different Iraqi officials within and among various government ministries have in the past disclosed conflicting figures. And independent studies and analyses have placed the fatality counts much higher those of the Iraqi government or U.S. military tallies.
One U.S. military official said Monday that 1,461 Iraqi civilians were killed or wounded in September, representing the lowest casualty count since early 2006.
Numbers alone cannot describe the level of danger, and the pervading sense of insecurity, that still exist in much of Iraq. Some U.S. soldiers in Iraq have argued that sectarian cleansing in some Baghdad neighborhoods has progressed to the point that there are fewer opportunities for killing rivals. Many Iraqis still refuse to travel from their homes or immediate neighborhoods for fear of crossing into territory under the control of rival militias or insurgents. Thousands of residents each month are still driven from their homes and from the country, afraid for their lives.
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It’s extremely pleasing and exciting to hear good news like this, death is never a good thing and death in a war is even worse. What really shocked me about this article was learning about the current Iraqi civilian death tolls, while they are far less than normal they still number close to a thousand, half of what it was before. I can’t decide for myself if this decrease in civilian and soldier deaths is either because our enemies are becoming weaker or because our soldiers are handling the combat environment better and are reducing accidental pointless deaths. I also can’t help but feel that this isn’t a permanent, sort of like gas prices, they may lower for a while and people will celebrate it but before you know it they rise to preposterous amounts almost overnight. However I will stay optimistic that this war is taking a turn for the better (even though shouldn’t be in it in the first place) and that some sort of peace can be brought to Iraq, no matter how minimal.
I agree with Kirk, it is very exciting to see the numbers of deaths of both civilians and soldiers down. That is awesome! Why are the numbers of deaths going down? I think it’s because the people we are fighting have finally realized that it’s not worth them fighting because they will always get shot down. But then you say, what about the suicide bombers? And for that I have no clue, maybe the bombers realized killing themselves was not the smartest thing to do. Now that the casualty rates are going down, does that mean that American Soldiers are completing their task in Iraq? I think so, after all the years in Iraq the casualty numbers are finally starting to fall, who knows maybe if this keeps up, or even drops lower maybe we will be able to start pulling mass amounts of troops out of Iraq. That would be awesome. If that happens, I wonder how Bush’s legacy will play out will he be seen as such a bad guy, or will the American people start to live up to President Bush? Only time will tell. All we can still do is hope for the best, and keep trusting our President and our soldiers.
Kirk i disagrre with you in that the death toll is like gas prices. I Mean General Patreus’ report came back saying that sectarian violence is at an all time low and the true struggle now is the politics behind this war. It is great news to hear though and i’m really glad that things are getting in better control over there. This war seems to be closing up shop violence wise but the politics is keeping all of the troops there which is upsetting. I agree that are troops need to get out at some point but i think it’s best for them to leave when there is an established governmnent. Because if we leave before than someone just like Saddam will just take over once again and we’re back to square one. The progress in Iraq is really good news and by the end of this it will be great to have an ally in the middle east. This war hasn’t gone the way many people have wanted but i think it is important for us citizens to look at this war in the best light possible. We don’t want our country to have the attitude as if another Vietnam war is going on.
In response to Cody:
I think it’s a little naive to say that “the people we are fighting realized it’s not worth fighting” or that “maybe the bombers realized killing themselves was not the smartest thing to do.” These radical sects of the Muslim faith have been around for hundreds of years and some “infidels” invading their country is not going to completely change their culture and their system of beliefs in less than a decade. I think sectarian violence will always be around in Iraq but the fact that the numbers of occurences are going down does show that our military presence and possibly the Iraqi military presence is being deeply felt for possibly the first time. This is a positive step, but it’s too early to make sweeping generalizations, the last paragraph of the article states that pretty clearly. If people are still afraid to leave their homes, we don’t have much reason to pat ourselves on the back.
Well, Kirk and Cody, I do agree that hearing the death toll to be down is good. But I don’t think that this is necessarily a good sign. Cody asked, “Why are the numbers of deaths going down?” Well Cody, this could be a very well planned ruse. I know that Cody’s opinion is that the terrorists have realized that fighting us is no use, but just think. After suicide bombers hitting us for YEARS, why would they suddenly stop dead in there tracks? (No pun intended.) Have they come up with a plan? I have to put myself in their position to try to figure it out. If I were a terrorist, had been fighting a war for 6 years against the superpower of the world, and hadn’t made any leeway, I would back down for a while. Maybe even a year. I would regroup, and then I would hit even harder when “America” happened to not be so concentrated in Iraq. Another thing Cody said I totally disagree with. “…will the American people start to live up to President Bush?” When has the People needed to live up to Bush? Bush has never really lived up to HIMSELF, let alone to the people. Yes, when 9-11 happened, the people were gun-hoe to “go and get the b*stards,” but what happened? Nothing. We’ve been in a war to fight terrorism, a force none can demolish. True we’ve tried to make Iraq’s government better, but we’ve lost thousands upon thousands of soldiers. (Not only have we lost many soldiers, but there have been questionable actions from Iraq and America to stop terrorism.) How does the decrease of deaths show that Bush needs living up to? It is the soldiers and the commanders fighting over there that need to be lived up to! I am on the opposite spectrum of Kirk’s optimism. I know that I’m very pessimistic on this topic, but if you look at what’s been given us, I can’t seem to be optimistic. I do like how Kirk ended it, though, “…(even though shouldn’t be in it in the first place) and that some sort of peace can be brought to Iraq, no matter how minimal.”
SSEMB
I have to disagree with Trevor. I don’t think that this low in deaths (its really sad that we’re calling numbers like 988 and 827 low but what can you do) will last long. I’m not saying that it won’t last for maybe a couple months but sadly I think the death poll with rise again at some point. Also I don’t think that just because theses numbers are low that we are done with all this violence and all we have to do is worry about politics. Wrong. This violence will never go away. Even if we establish a strong government over there I don’t think that we will ever be able to not have a military presence over there. It’s kind of impossible. Also to your comment that we need to look at this war in a positive light, yah that’s kind of hard for the country. We got into this war for different reasons than the ones we’re staying there for. Its hard for anyone to look at Iraq and go, “Yes, you know what, this is turning out perfectly” I support our troops and all they have done and I’m glad that this ridiculous surge is maybe beginning to work, but I still cant say I’m able to look at it in a positive light. But like Kirk said, “However I will stay optimistic that this war is taking a turn for the better (even though shouldn’t be in it in the first place) and that some sort of peace can be brought to Iraq, no matter how minimal.”
Shauna I have to agree with you and disagree with Trevor. Just because of one good month and lower death tolls, does not by any means mean that the war is getting better. We may be getting closer to the point where killing is settling but who knows how long that will last. Knowing the middle east and the feud between us, it will not last very long. Some crazy person will do something stupid and battle will start back up again. Gun fire and bombs will be going off and people will be dying and the death tolls be back and nothing would have changed. There is no use to get all happy about the recent drop. If these numbers stay low for a year or so and keep declining then we can start getting happy and making a deal out of it. And you are right about establishing a strong government. We are always going to have a military presence there and that is a fact. I am very proud of our troops and are amazed at the job they are doing. They have stayed strong, and followed what Bush has wanted them to do even though many people are against it. They are amazing for what they have done and can not wait for them to come back to there families and hope these decline in deaths stays for a long time.