JANUARY – Week #4: “Four ways Republicans can win Hispanics back”

By Jeb Bush, Published: January 25

In the 15 states that are likely to decide who controls the White House and the Senate in 2013, Hispanic voters will represent the margin of victory.

For the Republican Party, the stakes could not be greater. Just eight years after the party’s successful effort to woo Hispanic voters in 2004, this community — the fastest-growing group in the United States, according to census data — has drifted away.

Although Democrats hold the edge, Republicans have an opportunity. We also have a record of winning Hispanic voters in certain statewide and national elections. Here are four suggestions on how Republican candidates can regain momentum with the most powerful swing voters.

First, we need to recognize this is not a monochromatic community but, rather, a deeply diverse one. Hispanics in this country include Mexicans, Puerto Ricans, Cubans and many others. Some came here 50 years ago to make a better life; others came last year. Some have lots of education, some have none. The traditional Republican emphasis on the importance of the individual has never been more relevant.

Nevertheless, there are common features and dreams across this community. Hispanics understand, either personally or through close family members, what it means to come here as an immigrant. They know how hard it is to function without a full working knowledge of English. They have often felt the sting of prejudice and the threats of gang violence. They tire of the stereotypes built by the media and some politicians. Like all voters, Hispanics respond to candidates who show respect and understanding for their experiences.

Second, we should echo the aspirations of these voters. The American immigrant experience is the most aspirational story ever told. Immigrants left all that was familiar to them to come here and make a better life for their families. That they believe this is possible only in America is the best expression of American exceptionalism I know. And on this score, Republicans have a winning message and record as the party of the entrepreneur. We are the party of the family business, and the family business is the economic heart of Hispanic communities.

Third, we should press for an overhaul of our education system. Republicans have the field to themselves on this issue. Teachers unions and education bureaucrats have blocked Democrats from serious reform — it will happen only with Republican political leadership. But we have to move beyond simplistic plans to “get rid of the Department of Education” and focus on substantive, broad-based reform that includes school choice, robust accountability for underperforming schools and the elimination of social promotion, in which kids are passed along without mastering grade-level skills. Such improvements, it was noted in 2009, plus efforts to embrace digital learning, helped Hispanic students in Florida lead the nation among their peers. And Hispanic voters, who often feel their children are trapped in failing schools, notice.

Finally, we need to think of immigration reform as an economic issue, not just a border security issue. Numerous polls show that Hispanics agree with Republicans on the necessity of a secure border and enforceable and fair immigration laws to reduce illegal immigration and strengthen legal immigration.

Hispanics recognize that Democrats have failed to deliver on immigration reform, having chosen to spend their political capital on other priorities.

Republicans should reengage on this issue and reframe it. Start by recognizing that new Americans strengthen our economy. We need more people to come to this country, ready to work and to contribute their creativity to our economy. U.S. immigration policies should reflect that principle. Just as Republicans believe in free trade of goods, we should support the freer flow of human talent.

We need to connect immigration to other pro-growth policies, so that new Americans can apply their talents here and succeed. The United States needs an economy that is vibrant and dynamic, open to the contributions of new entrants. We have to reduce regulations across our economy, whenever they impede economic dynamism and flexibility in the labor market. We need secure energy supplies, radical tax reform and a reduced footprint of power of the state.

Immigration reform requires economic reforms. We must be able to assure new Americans the opportunity to succeed and contribute their talents.

And when they come, as surely they will, we must welcome them, no matter whether they speak Spanish or Creole or Portuguese. When we hear foreign languages in the streets of America, that is a validation of the Republican vision to create a place where people want to come and make their lives. Hispanics here speak or are learning English — not French, Chinese or Hindi. There is a lesson in that, and Republicans should be the ones to champion it.

JANUARY – Week #4: The State of The Union

In Address, Obama Makes Pitch for Economic Fairness

By

WASHINGTON — President Obama pledged on Tuesday night to use government power to balance the scale between America’s rich and the rest of the public, trying to present an election-year choice between continued leadership toward an economy “built to last” and what he called irresponsible policies of the past that caused an economic collapse.

Declaring that “we’ve come too far to turn back now,” the president used his final State of the Union address before he faces the voters to showcase the extent to which he will try to contrast his core economic principles with those of his Republican rivals in a time of deep economic uncertainty. While many Americans remain disappointed with the state of the economy and the president’s handling of it, Mr. Obama nonetheless tried to bring into relief the difference between where the country was when he took over and where it is now.

“The state of our union is getting stronger,” he declared in time-honored tradition. “In the last 22 months, businesses have created more than three million jobs.” He pointed to renewed hiring by American manufacturers and — borrowing the “built to last” phrase from the auto industry he helped save — he sketched out, albeit vaguely, what he called a blueprint for economic growth in which the wealthy play by the same rules as ordinary Americans.

Republicans challenged Mr. Obama’s assessment of the economy, and asserted that his policies had made the situation worse. But with their own poll numbers diving, Congressional Republicans were subdued in their response to the speech, careful not to boo or seem disrespectful. And the president disputed their claim that he was practicing the politics of division.

“You can call this class warfare all you want,” Mr. Obama said of his call to create a more even economic playing field. “Most Americans would call that common sense.” He characterized the choice as one between whether “a shrinking number of people do really well while a growing number of Americans barely get by” or his own vision — “where everyone gets a fair shot.”

In returning to his 2008 campaign motif of these being “not Democratic values or Republican values, but American values,” Mr. Obama presented a somewhat modest list of initiatives he could enact through executive authority coupled with more ambitious proposals unlikely to advance in Congress. It was an address meant to show a president still interested in governing and a leader putting the interests of the American middle class at the top of his agenda.

Many of his proposals centered on changes to the tax code, including limiting deductions for companies that move jobs overseas, rewarding companies that return jobs to the United States and increasing taxes on wealthy Americans.

Taking aim at financial institutions that engaged in risky lending practices that many believe tipped the country into financial crisis, Mr. Obama said he was asking Attorney General Eric H. Holder Jr. to create a special unit of federal prosecutors and state attorneys general to expand investigations into abusive lending. The new unit, he said, “will hold accountable those who broke the law, speed assistance to homeowners and help turn the page on an era of recklessness that hurt so many Americans.”

Mr. Obama also proposed a new trade enforcement unit that would add to the number of government investigators pursuing unfair trade practices and that would be responsible for filing lawsuits against foreign countries, namely China. He called for new legislation to make it easier for Americans to refinance their homes if their interest rates are above market rates. And he proposed a bound-to-be-contentious way to allocate any savings from ending the war in Iraq and winding down the war in Afghanistan: by using half of the war savings on infrastructure projects and the other half to reduce the deficit.

“We will not go back to an economy weakened by outsourcing, bad debt and phony financial profits,” Mr. Obama said. Though his advisers have vowed a campaign against Congress, he expressed a willingness to “work with anyone in this chamber” and said he would “oppose any effort to return to the very same policies that brought on this economic crisis in the first place.”

In an emotional moment, Representative Gabrielle Giffords, an Arizona Democrat who was wounded in the Tucson shooting last year, returned for the speech before her imminent resignation from the House to concentrate on her recovery. Although the president is often criticized for his aloofness, he embraced Ms. Giffords for a long 10 seconds, rocking and almost seeming to be dancing with her.

Mr. Obama again proposed changes to the tax code so the wealthy pay more, a position he has indicated he will continue to press in this election year against Republican opposition. He called for Congress to put into place his “Buffett Rule” — named after the Berkshire Hathaway chairman Warren E. Buffett — whereby people making more than $1 million a year would pay a minimum effective tax rate of at least 30 percent in income taxes.

To illustrate his point, he provocatively used Mr. Buffett’s secretary, Debbie Bosanek, as one of his props, seating Ms. Bosanek — whose effective tax rate is higher than Mr. Buffett’s, he has said — in the chamber with the first lady, Michelle Obama.

Mr. Obama’s income tax proposal on Tuesday night was particularly charged, coming as it did less than 24 hours after Mitt Romney, a Republican presidential candidate, released tax returns showing that he and his wife, Ann, had an effective federal income tax rate in 2010 of 13.9 percent and an income ranking among the top one-10th of 1 percent of all taxpayers in 2010.

Mr. Obama would like the new tax to replace the alternative minimum tax, which was created decades ago to make sure that the richest taxpayers with plentiful deductions and credits did not avoid income taxes, but which now affects millions of Americans who are considered upper middle class.

An upbeat Mr. Obama delivered his remarks standing in the chamber of the House of Representatives, an arena ruled by his political adversaries, given the Republican majority that the president and fellow Democrats have criticized as blocking much of the White House agenda.

But in the official Republican response to the address, Gov. Mitch Daniels of Indiana said it had been Congressional Republicans who had acted to improve the economy, only to be thwarted by the president.

“The president did not cause the economic and fiscal crisis that continue in America tonight,” Mr. Daniels said. “But he was elected on a promise to fix them, and he cannot claim that the last three years have made things anything but worse.”

While he was addressing Congress and assembled dignitaries, Mr. Obama was trying to reach the far greater national television audience of American voters, and his speech, while deep in policy initiatives, served in many ways as a prime-time kickoff of his re-election campaign.

In fact, most of the first lady’s guests on Tuesday night came from states that figure heavily in Mr. Obama’s re-election plans. Included were North Carolina, from where Mr. Obama selected both a worker and an employer, to demonstrate the benefits of public-private partnerships, and Florida, from where he chose a homeowner who was able to keep her house thanks to Mr. Obama’s housing refinance program.

Mr. Obama said a major part of his agenda would be the expansion of domestic energy supplies, both from traditional fuels like oil and natural gas and from cleaner sources like wind and the sun. He singled out the rapid growth of domestic natural gas production through the technique known as hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, which the government says has unlocked a 100-year supply that now makes the United States the Saudi Arabia of natural gas.

Reflecting the heavy emphasis on the economy in an election year, the president’s speech was relatively short on national security, where most political observers and indeed his own aides believe his performance has been much stronger than on the economy. In fact, Mr. Obama ended his speech with the American assault last year that finally, after 10 years, killed Osama bin Laden, and talked of that fateful day last May when he monitored the attack from the White House.

He called on the country to emulate the unity of the Navy Seal team that conducted the raid. “When you’re marching into battle, you look out for the person next to you,” the president said, “or the mission fails.”

John M. Broder contributed reporting.

Published in: A Challenge, A MUST READ, Economics, Institutions, Politics on January 25, 2012 at6:56 AM Comments (0)

JANUARY – Week #4: “Can Romney the turnaround artist do it again?”

By , Published: January 23

An Illinois lawyer who had a way with words once characterized a particular argument as weaker than soup made from the shadow of a pigeon that died of starvation. The argument for Mitt Romney benefiting from South Carolina’s voting is almost as weak as Lincoln’s soup, but here it is:

In the physics of politics, actions generate reactions. Granted, Newt Gingrich carried 43 of the state’s 46 counties, and at least six of the seven congressional districts, now leads in delegates, and his colorful personal life did not prevent him from decisively beating Romney among the women of a culturally conservative state. But Sunday morning, from coast to coast, Republican candidates for Congress, governorships and other offices awakened to a sobering thought: They could be running next autumn with Gingrich — whose current approval rating nationally in a Jan. 12-14 Fox News and Opinion Dynamics poll was 27 percent favorable, 56 percent unfavorable — atop the ticket. They have nothing to fear so much as an absence of fear about this. With Gingrich defining the GOP brand, the Republicans’ dream — unified government: a trifecta of holding the House, winning the Senate and the White House — might become three strikes and they are out.

Just 11 days after finishing fourth in New Hampshire, Gingrich’s pugnacity in two debates enraptured South Carolinians, especially when he waxed indignant about the supposition that the risk-taking in his personal life — e.g., having an affair during an indignation festival against Bill Clinton — is pertinent to his fitness for the presidency. Gingrich encourages Republican voters to believe he should be nominated because he would do best in the (at most) three debates with Barack Obama. So, because Gingrich might sparkle during 41 / 2 hours of debates, he should be given four years of control of nuclear weapons? Odd.

When the Republican nomination contest commenced, two assumptions were that Romney’s strength would be his private-sector resume, and that his principal problems would be his religion and his authorship of Massachusetts’ health care mandate. The mandate, however, has receded as an issue since Romney noted that Gingrich was for a mandate before he was against it. And many “values voters” who consider Mormonism somehow suspect seem to regard it as not very important, no more important than Gingrich’s serial monogamy, and less important than Romney’s largest problem, which is, remarkably, his resume.

The first presidential candidate from the economy’s now deeply unpopular financial sector, Romney is suffering because this sector’s arcane practices and instruments seem to many people, as indecipherable things often do, sinister. His tax returns perhaps testify to no more than sophisticated exploitation of the baroque tax code’s opportunities for — even encouragement of — tactics to minimize liabilities. This, however, may exacerbate the impression many Republicans seem to have of his slipperiness. And this attribute is related to the suspicion that there is something synthetic about him. This may be unfair, but so is life.

Life has been good to Romney, who now must quickly demonstrate authenticity, even if he needs to synthesize it. Actually, he does not need to. He speaks well, which is to say with infectious passion, about the dangers of the other party’s dependency agenda and the entitlement mentality it cultivates. But if Romney says even one more time “I believe in America” — a bromide worthy of Tom (“Your future is still ahead of you”) Dewey — voters may decide he is a human Oakland, that (as Gertrude Stein said of the city) there is no there there.

Some Romney aides have complacently expected enthusiasm for him to be a consequence rather than a cause of his victories. But there is too much space between his victories: The last ones before New Hampshire this month were 47 months ago, in some Feb. 5, 2008, primaries and caucuses.

Actually, losing in South Carolina could be a partial blessing if it banishes from his campaign and from Republican voters’ minds the dispiriting, eat-your-spinach idea that electability is the best reason for nominating him.

Gingrich thinks South Carolina has catapulted him toward irresistible victory. There remain, however, 53 more delegate-selection processes — in 47 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico and some possessions. Busy as an intellectual beaver having big ideas by the bushel, Gingrich has neglected some mundane matters, such as getting on the Virginia and Missouri ballots.

Should Prometheus have to sweat such tiresome details? Yes, because the nominating process in this complex continental nation usefully foreshadows the challenges of governing such a nation.

georgewill@washpost.com

JANUARY – Week #4: WA Senate Race: Baumgartner vs Cantwell

Cantwell Opponent Faces Many Obstacles

By Julie Sobel and Sean Sullivan
January 23, 2012

State Sen. Michael Baumgartner, the first-term legislator who has launched a long-shot Republican challenge against Sen. Maria Cantwell, D-Wash., acknowledges that a controversial press release his campaign sent out last year about emergency contraception was a mistake.

The December 15 press release, sent in response to Cantwell’s support for access to emergency contraception without a prescription for girls under the age of 17 (something the Obama administration came out against): “Baumgartner noted that Cantwell, who is unmarried, has frequently voted to undermine the role of parents in child-rearing.”

In an interview with Hotline On Call on Monday, Baumgartner called the press release “apparently poorly written.”

“I take responsibility for it,” he said. “I mean to me, when I read it, it says she’s to the left of President Obama.”

Baumgartner faces an uphill climb in his race against a the popular incumbent during a presidential year in a decidedly blue state. His press release misstep is just one of the reasons he faces long odds.

For starters, neither geography nor history is on Baumgartner’s side. He is from Spokane, in eastern Washington. It’s been decades since a candidate from the eastern part of the state has won a statewide federal election.

To have a good chance in a statewide race in Washington, a Republican needs to get about 40 percent of the vote in the state’s most populous county, King County. That’s no small feat, even for Republicans with a profiles considerably more moderate than Baumgartner. Dino Rossi, a former state senator from a suburban Seattle district who had twice lost close races as his party’s nominee for governor, ran a credible Senate campaign during the Republican wave year in 2010, and he was only able to garner about 35 percent of the vote.

“I don’t think King County is going to vote for someone they think is a rube or a hick from eastern Washington,” Baumgartner said. “I do think folks will vote for someone who has real concerns and solutions.”

“In eastern Washington, I’ll probably talk more about being a ‘Coug’ and going to WSU and in western Washington, I’ll probably talk more about being a teaching fellow at Harvard,” he added with a chuckle.

Baumgartner cites House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan, R-Wis., and Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels as figures he admires — two Republicans who are to the right of Attorney General Rob McKenna, who is considered the best chance Republicans have had in decades to win the governor’s mansion. McKenna has cultivated a considerably more moderate profile as a statewide candidate. Democrats have also seized on a county platform Baumgartner once signed that includes some far right positions. Baumgartner says he embraced the general principles of the platform, but with caveats.

On paper, Baumgartner is an intriguing candidate. He has zeroed in on foreign policy and the debt as the two focal points of his campaign (he says the troop surge in Afghanistan was a mistake and that it was unlikely he would have voted in favor of the compromise to raise the debt ceiling that was struck in Congress last year).

Baumgartner said he wasn’t sure of the exact figure, but that his campaign had raised approximately $125,000 since he became a candidate in early October. He predicted that to win the race, he’d need $5 million, or, preferably, $10 million. Cantwell had already stockpiled over $3 million at the end of the third quarter, and she has yet to announce her fourth quarter haul.

JANUARY – Week #4: “Supreme Court says search warrants needed when police use GPS devices to track suspects”

By Associated Press – Monday, January 23

WASHINGTON — The Supreme Court ruled unanimously Monday that police must get a search warrant before using GPS technology to track criminal suspects.

The GPS device helped authorities link Washington, D.C., nightclub owner Antoine Jones to a suburban house used to stash money and drugs. He was sentenced to life in prison before the appeals court overturned the conviction.

Associate Justice Antonin Scalia said that the government’s installation of a GPS device, and its use to monitor the vehicle’s movements, constitutes a search, meaning that a warrant is required.

“By attaching the device to the Jeep” that Jones was using, “officers encroached on a protected area,” Scalia wrote.

All nine justices agreed that the placement of the GPS on the Jeep violated the Fourth Amendment’s protection against unreasonable search and seizure.

Scalia wrote the main opinion of three in the case. He was joined by Chief Justice John Roberts and Justices Anthony Kennedy, Clarence Thomas and Sonia Sotomayor.

Sotomayor also wrote one of the two concurring opinions that agreed with the outcome in the Jones case for different reasons.

Justice Samuel Alito also wrote a concurring opinion in which he said the court should have gone further and dealt with GPS tracking of wireless devices, like mobile phones. He was joined by Justices Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Stephen Breyer and Elena Kagan.

A federal appeals court in Washington had overturned Jones’s drug conspiracy conviction because police did not have a warrant when they installed a GPS device on his vehicle and then tracked his movements for a month. The Supreme Court agreed with the appeals court.

The case is U.S. v. Jones, 10-1259.

Copyright 2012 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

JANUARY – Week #4: “State of the Union speech vital to re-election”

January 22, 2012
Obama will address nation on Tuesday at 6pm
by Ben Feller
Associated Press

WASHINGTON – Vilified by the Republicans who want his job, President Barack Obama will stand before the nation Tuesday night determined to frame the election-year debate on his terms, promising his State of the Union address will outline a lasting economic recovery that will “work for everyone, not just a wealthy few.”

As his most powerful chance to make a case for a second term, the prime-time speech carries enormous political stakes for the Democratic incumbent who presides over a country divided about his performance and pessimistic about the nation’s direction. He will try to offer a stark contrast with his opponents by offering a vision of fairness and opportunity for everyone.

In a preview Saturday, Obama said in a video to supporters that the speech will be an economic blueprint built around manufacturing, energy, education and American values.

He is expected to announce ideas to make college more affordable and to address the housing crisis still hampering the economy, people familiar with the speech said. Obama will also propose fresh ideas to ensure that the wealthy pay more in taxes, reiterating what he considers a matter of basic fairness.

His policy proposals will be less important than what Obama hopes they all add up to: a narrative of renewed American security with him leading the fight.

“We can go in two directions,” Obama said in the campaign video. “One is toward less opportunity and less fairness. Or we can fight for where I think we need to go: building an economy that works for everyone, not just a wealthy few.”

That line of argument is intended to tap directly into concerns of voters who think America has become a nation of income inequality, with rules rigged to help the rich. The degree to which Obama or his Republican opponent can better connect with millions of hurting Americans is expected to determine November’s presidential election.

Obama didn’t mention national security or foreign policy in his preview, and he is not expected to break ground on either one.

He will focus on the economy and is expected to promote unfinished parts of his jobs plan, including the extension of a payroll tax cut that is to expire soon.

Whatever Obama proposes is likely to face long odds in a deeply divided Congress.

More people than not disapprove of Obama’s handling of the economy, and he is showing real vulnerability among the independent voters who could swing the election. Yet he will step into the moment just as the economy is showing life. The unemployment rate is still at a troubling 8.5 percent, but it is at its lowest rate in nearly three years. Consumer confidence is up.

The foundation of Obama’s speech is the one he gave in Kansas last month, when he declared that the middle class was at a make-or-break moment and he railed against “you’re on your own” economics of the Republican Party. His theme then was a government that ensures people get a fair shot to succeed.

But even so, the State of the Union speech will still be a framework – part governing, part inspiration.

The details will be rolled out in full over the next several weeks, as part of Obama’s next budget proposal and during his travels, which will allow him more media coverage.

On national security, Obama will ask the nation to reflect on a momentous year of change, including the end of the war in Iraq, the killing of Osama bin Laden and the Arab Spring protests.

Despite low expectations for legislation this year, Obama will offer short-term ideas that would require action from Congress.

His travel schedule following his speech, to politically important regions, offers clues to the policies he is expected to unveil.

Both Phoenix and Las Vegas have been hard hit by foreclosures. Denver is where Obama outlined ways of helping college students deal with school loan debt. Cedar Rapids, Iowa, and Detroit are home to a number of manufacturers. And Michigan was a major beneficiary of the president’s decision to intervene to rescue the American auto industry.

Published in: 2012 Election, Economics, Political Parties, Politics on January 22, 2012 at8:24 AM Comments (0)

JANUARY – Week #4: “The Future of American Democracy”

By Rep. Dennis Kucinich & Russell Simmons

This is not a progressive issue or a conservative issue. This is not a Tea Party issue or a liberal issue. This is an American issue. Money is destroying our politics and our political system. The signs are everywhere. A “super PAC” supporting Mitt Romney spent $3.5 million to knock Newt Gingrich out of the lead in Iowa. A super PAC supporting Newt Gingrich is spending a greater amount of money to return the favor to Mitt Romney in South Carolina. Our electoral system has become such a joke that two late-night comedians are now actually participating in it and are generating great laughter just by demonstrating how it operates.

In the past, Congress has made two bipartisan efforts to control the impact of money on our elections, first in the early 1970s and more recently with the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002, known as “McCain-Feingold.” Both of these laws tried to restrict the influence of money on our elections. But after each of these efforts, the Supreme Court kicked down the door and allowed campaign money to flow more freely.

First, in Buckley v. Valeo, the Court held that money is the equivalent of “free speech” under the First Amendment, and that no act of Congress could restrict the amount of money that an individual could contribute to his or her own campaign or expend in support of another person’s campaign as long as that expenditure was “independent” of the campaign. This decision gave the “one percent” a voice in our elections that greatly exceeds the concept of “one citizen-one vote.”

Then, exactly two years ago today in Citizens United v. FEC, the Supreme Court went off the deep end and ruled that corporations are “persons” under the First Amendment and that no act of Congress could restrict the amount of money a corporation could spend in an election. This decision gives all U.S. corporations, and all U.S. subsidiaries of foreign corporations, every right to participate in our elections that individual U.S. citizens have, excepting only the right to actually vote.

The concept of giving corporations the same rights as individuals would have staggered our “founding fathers.” Corporations in their present form did not even exist in 1789 when the Bill of Rights was ratified. The Bill of Rights was written to protect individuals from the power of the federal government. It was later extended by the Fourteenth Amendment to protect individuals from similar abuses by state governments. Where in this “original intent” was there any expression that corporations should have the same rights as individuals to participate in our electoral process?

We must get money out of our politics and out of our electoral system. We must eliminate the influence of multi-national corporations and foreign corporations on the government of our country. Since the Supreme Court majority is obviously opposed to such reforms, the only way to correct our system is through a constitutional amendment that will take money out of our electoral system.

This week, a constitutional amendment was introduced in Congress that will require all federal campaigns — that is campaigns for president, vice president, senator and representative — to be financed exclusively with public funds, and that will prohibit any expenditures from any other source, including the candidate. This amendment will also preclude any expenditures in support of, or in opposition to, any federal candidate, so that special interest groups will not be able to influence elections either. This amendment does, however, maintain our historical “freedom of the press” and preserve the traditional role that the media have played in our electoral process.

It is clear. Money has become a corrupting influence in the political system. This is one of the most important issues of our time. We must rescue American democracy. Together, we are committed to protecting the future of our democracy and that is why we have come together to promote this constitutional amendment. Whether you are a Republican, Democrat or Independent, we urge you to join us.

JANUARY – Week #4: “Fresh Doubts About Republican Contest”

January 21, 2012
By

CHARLESTON, S.C. — For Mitt Romney, the South Carolina primary was not just a defeat, though it was most emphatically that. It was also where his campaign confronted the prospect it had most hoped to avoid: a dominant, surging and energized rival.

The rebirth of Newt Gingrich, a notion that seemed far-fetched only weeks ago, has upended a litany of assumptions about this turbulent race. It wounds Mr. Romney, particularly given his stinging double-digit defeat here on Saturday, and raises the likelihood that the Republican contest could stretch into the springtime.

For now the race goes on, with Mr. Gingrich and Mr. Romney joined by Rick Santorum and Ron Paul. But Mr. Gingrich’s showing here suggests that Mr. Romney may no longer be able to count on his rivals splitting the opposing vote into harmless parcels, or on the support he is getting from the party establishment to carry him past a volatile conservative grass-roots movement.

At a minimum, it is clear that Republican voters, after delivering three different winners in the first three stops in the nominating contest, are in no rush to settle on their nominee.

Mr. Romney, whose message has been built around the proposition that he can create jobs, lost badly among voters who said they were very worried about the economy, according to exit polls.

He had trouble with evangelicals and voters searching for a candidate who shared their faith. He did not win over people who support the Tea Party movement. And he struggled with questions about his wealth over the past week and could not match Mr. Gingrich in exciting the passions of conservatives.

His arguments of electability — the spine of his candidacy — fell flat to a wide portion of the party’s base here.

For all that, by most traditional measures, Mr. Romney retains a firm upper hand in the Republican race as it moves into a protracted battle to win 1,144 delegates.

He is on the ballot in all states, while Mr. Gingrich is not. Even as he was steadily falling in South Carolina last week, he was racking up tens of thousands of early votes for the Florida primary on Jan. 31. He has a well-financed “super PAC” ready to carry out attacks on his behalf. And he faces far friendlier terrain in February as Nevada and Michigan, the only states he won four years ago, weigh in.

But despite the advantages of his campaign organization, which quite literally is the best that money can build, Mr. Romney leaves South Carolina with fresh questions about his unsteady performance as a candidate. He was repeatedly outshone by Mr. Gingrich, whose candidacy has flourished in debate after debate. And with two more debates in the next five days in Florida, the amount of media attention awaiting Mr. Gingrich is sure to be immense.

A big fear for Mr. Romney is that this race may not be dictated by traditional measures. Republicans seem to want someone they are confident can shred Mr. Obama in a head-to-head matchup. The Tea Party movement, if less prominent than a year ago, continues to impose pressure against political compromise and for ideological purity. Mr. Romney’s Mormon religion remains an issue to some evangelical voters.

If Mr. Romney and his team had allowed themselves to dream of a smooth walk to the nomination, they are now wide awake to the challenges ahead and how hard they will have to fight.

The Romney campaign, which had let its collective boot off of Mr. Gingrich’s throat after his candidacy fell in Iowa, is poised to open the most aggressive attack yet against him. Advisers to Mr. Romney said that they were happy to have Mr. Gingrich take his turn in the front-runner’s spotlight.

“We like the way the race looks going forward,” Stuart Stevens, a top strategist to Mr. Romney, said Saturday evening. “A lot of politics is about patience and picking your opponent.”

While advisers to Mr. Romney believe that he will ultimately fare well in a head-to-head matchup, the 10 days leading up to the Florida primary present an interesting test for how a traditional campaign organization can stack up against the wave of momentum that Mr. Gingrich will carry from his muscular victory in South Carolina.

The Florida primary is closed, so only Republicans can participate, which could hurt Mr. Romney. It remains an open question how much of a factor Mr. Santorum, the former senator from Pennsylvania who finished third, will be. But Mr. Santorum pledged to go to Florida and beyond, aides said, to be there in case Mr. Gingrich, whose ups and downs this year have been extreme, collapses again.

From the start, South Carolina was difficult territory for Mr. Romney, who placed fourth here in the 2008 Republican primary. It was only after his apparent victory in Iowa — later rescinded after a recount — and his win in his backyard of New Hampshire that he allowed expectations to build of the possibility of sweeping the first three contests. Had he held down expectations, his defeat might not have carried as much impact.

“There may be some sentiment of ‘Let’s have this go on a little longer,’ ” said Jim Talent, a former Missouri senator and a senior adviser to the Romney campaign, who traveled here to help. He said Republican voters wanted the race to go on.

Whether Mr. Romney’s defeat portends trouble ahead is not clear. The makeup of the electorate in South Carolina is far more socially conservative and religious than in most states. His advisers argued that the judgment of voters did not easily translate to other states, particularly considering nearly two-thirds of primary voters were evangelical or born-again Christians, according to exit polls.

“I said from the very beginning South Carolina is an uphill battle for a guy from Massachusetts,” Mr. Romney said on the eve of the primary, hoping to explain away his impending defeat.

The presidential candidacy of Mr. Romney has always been built on the assumption that he is the most likely to defeat Mr. Obama. That argument did not hold here, where Mr. Gingrich’s fiery style in two debates went a long way toward winning over voters, exit polls suggested. If Mr. Gingrich is able to keep whittling away at that line of reasoning, Mr. Romney could face an uphill battle.

For all the talk that the Tea Party had dissipated, after it helped drive the Republican Party in the 2010 Congressional elections, the South Carolina primary suggested that antiestablishment sentiment can wield influence in a primary.

The confidence that carried Mr. Romney into South Carolina 12 days ago with two victories under his belt was gone by Saturday. He limps away from the state Sunday with one win fewer and primary results that have started turning the race into exactly what he did not want it to be: a faceoff against a conservative candidate.

JANUARY – Week #3: “How Obama’s Long Game Will Outsmart His Critics”

The right calls him a socialist, the left says he sucks up to Wall Street, and independents think he’s a wimp.

by

You hear it everywhere. Democrats are disappointed in the president. Independents have soured even more. Republicans have worked themselves up into an apocalyptic fervor. And, yes, this is not exactly unusual.

A president in the last year of his first term will always get attacked mercilessly by his partisan opponents, and also, often, by the feistier members of his base. And when unemployment is at remarkably high levels, and with the national debt setting records, the criticism will—and should be—even fiercer. But this time, with this president, something different has happened. It’s not that I don’t understand the critiques of Barack Obama from the enraged right and the demoralized left. It’s that I don’t even recognize their description of Obama’s first term in any way. The attacks from both the right and the left on the man and his policies aren’t out of bounds. They’re simply—empirically—wrong.

A caveat: I write this as an unabashed supporter of Obama from early 2007 on. I did so not as a liberal, but as a conservative-minded independent appalled by the Bush administration’s record of war, debt, spending, and torture. I did not expect, or want, a messiah. I have one already, thank you very much. And there have been many times when I have disagreed with decisions Obama has made—to drop the Bowles-Simpson debt commission, to ignore the war crimes of the recent past, and to launch a war in Libya without Congress’s sanction, to cite three. But given the enormity of what he inherited, and given what he explicitly promised, it remains simply a fact that Obama has delivered in a way that the unhinged right and purist left have yet to understand or absorb. Their short-term outbursts have missed Obama’s long game—and why his reelection remains, in my view, as essential for this country’s future as his original election in 2008.


OBAMA CAMPAIGN 20
Doug Mills / The New York Times-Redux

The right’s core case is that Obama has governed as a radical leftist attempting a “fundamental transformation” of the American way of life. Mitt Romney accuses the president of making the recession worse, of wanting to turn America into a European welfare state, of not believing in opportunity or free enterprise, of having no understanding of the real economy, and of apologizing for America and appeasing our enemies. According to Romney, Obama is a mortal threat to “the soul” of America and an empty suit who couldn’t run a business, let alone a country.

Leave aside the internal incoherence—how could such an incompetent be a threat to anyone? None of this is even faintly connected to reality—and the record proves it. On the economy, the facts are these. When Obama took office, the United States was losing around 750,000 jobs a month. The last quarter of 2008 saw an annualized drop in growth approaching 9 percent. This was the most serious downturn since the 1930s, there was a real chance of a systemic collapse of the entire global financial system, and unemployment and debt—lagging indicators—were about to soar even further. No fair person can blame Obama for the wreckage of the next 12 months, as the financial crisis cut a swath through employment. Economies take time to shift course.

But Obama did several things at once: he continued the bank bailout begun by George W. Bush, he initiated a bailout of the auto industry, and he worked to pass a huge stimulus package of $787 billion.

All these decisions deserve scrutiny. And in retrospect, they were far more successful than anyone has yet fully given Obama the credit for. The job collapse bottomed out at the beginning of 2010, as the stimulus took effect. Since then, the U.S. has added 2.4 million jobs. That’s not enough, but it’s far better than what Romney would have you believe, and more than the net jobs created under the entire Bush administration. In 2011 alone, 1.9 million private-sector jobs were created, while a net 280,000 government jobs were lost. Overall government employment has declined 2.6 percent over the past 3 years. (That compares with a drop of 2.2 percent during the early years of the Reagan administration.) To listen to current Republican rhetoric about Obama’s big-government socialist ways, you would imagine that the reverse was true. It isn’t.

The right claims the stimulus failed because it didn’t bring unemployment down to 8 percent in its first year, as predicted by Obama’s transition economic team. Instead, it peaked at 10.2 percent. But the 8 percent prediction was made before Obama took office and was wrong solely because it relied on statistics that guessed the economy was only shrinking by around 4 percent, not 9. Remove that statistical miscalculation (made by government and private-sector economists alike) and the stimulus did exactly what it was supposed to do. It put a bottom under the free fall. It is not an exaggeration to say it prevented a spiral downward that could have led to the Second Great Depression.

You’d think, listening to the Republican debates, that Obama has raised taxes. Again, this is not true. Not only did he agree not to sunset the Bush tax cuts for his entire first term, he has aggressively lowered taxes on most Americans. A third of the stimulus was tax cuts, affecting 95 percent of taxpayers; he has cut the payroll tax, and recently had to fight to keep it cut against Republican opposition. His spending record is also far better than his predecessor’s. Under Bush, new policies on taxes and spending cost the taxpayer a total of $5.07 trillion. Under Obama’s budgets both past and projected, he will have added $1.4 trillion in two terms. Under Bush and the GOP, nondefense discretionary spending grew by twice as much as under Obama. Again: imagine Bush had been a Democrat and Obama a Republican. You could easily make the case that Obama has been far more fiscally conservative than his predecessor—except, of course, that Obama has had to govern under the worst recession since the 1930s, and Bush, after the 2001 downturn, governed in a period of moderate growth. It takes work to increase the debt in times of growth, as Bush did. It takes much more work to constrain the debt in the deep recession Bush bequeathed Obama.

The great conservative bugaboo, Obamacare, is also far more moderate than its critics have claimed. The Congressional Budget Office has projected it will reduce the deficit, not increase it dramatically, as Bush’s unfunded Medicare Prescription Drug benefit did. It is based on the individual mandate, an idea pioneered by the archconservative Heritage Foundation, Newt Gingrich, and, of course, Mitt Romney, in the past. It does not have a public option; it gives a huge new client base to the drug and insurance companies; its health-insurance exchanges were also pioneered by the right. It’s to the right of the Clintons’ monstrosity in 1993, and remarkably similar to Nixon’s 1974 proposal. Its passage did not preempt recovery efforts; it followed them. It needs improvement in many ways, but the administration is open to further reform and has agreed to allow states to experiment in different ways to achieve the same result. It is not, as Romney insists, a one-model, top-down prescription. Like Obama’s Race to the Top education initiative, it sets standards, grants incentives, and then allows individual states to experiment. Embedded in it are also a slew of cost-reduction pilot schemes to slow health-care spending. Yes, it crosses the Rubicon of universal access to private health care. But since federal law mandates that hospitals accept all emergency-room cases requiring treatment anyway, we already obey that socialist principle—but in the most inefficient way possible. Making 44 million current free-riders pay into the system is not fiscally reckless; it is fiscally prudent. It is, dare I say it, conservative.

On foreign policy, the right-wing critiques have been the most unhinged. Romney accuses the president of apologizing for America, and others all but accuse him of treason and appeasement. Instead, Obama reversed Bush’s policy of ignoring Osama bin Laden, immediately setting a course that eventually led to his capture and death. And when the moment for decision came, the president overruled both his secretary of state and vice president in ordering the riskiest—but most ambitious—plan on the table. He even personally ordered the extra helicopters that saved the mission. It was a triumph, not only in killing America’s primary global enemy, but in getting a massive trove of intelligence to undermine al Qaeda even further. If George Bush had taken out bin Laden, wiped out al Qaeda’s leadership, and gathered a treasure trove of real intelligence by a daring raid, he’d be on Mount Rushmore by now. But where Bush talked tough and acted counterproductively, Obama has simply, quietly, relentlessly decimated our real enemies, while winning the broader propaganda war. Since he took office, al Qaeda’s popularity in the Muslim world has plummeted.

Obama’s foreign policy, like Dwight Eisenhower’s or George H.W. Bush’s, eschews short-term political hits for long-term strategic advantage. It is forged by someone interested in advancing American interests—not asserting an ideology and enforcing it regardless of the consequences by force of arms. By hanging back a little, by “leading from behind” in Libya and elsewhere, Obama has made other countries actively seek America’s help and reappreciate our role. As an antidote to the bad feelings of the Iraq War, it has worked close to perfectly.

But the right isn’t alone in getting Obama wrong. While the left is less unhinged in its critique, it is just as likely to miss the screen for the pixels. From the start, liberals projected onto Obama absurd notions of what a president can actually do in a polarized country, where anything requires 60 Senate votes even to stand a chance of making it into law. They have described him as a hapless tool of Wall Street, a continuation of Bush in civil liberties, a cloistered elitist unable to grasp the populist moment that is his historic opportunity. They rail against his attempts to reach a Grand Bargain on entitlement reform. They decry his too-small stimulus, his too-weak financial reform, and his too-cautious approach to gay civil rights. They despair that he reacts to rabid Republican assaults with lofty appeals to unity and compromise.

They miss, it seems to me, two vital things. The first is the simple scale of what has been accomplished on issues liberals say they care about. A depression was averted. The bail-out of the auto industry was—amazingly—successful. Even the bank bailouts have been repaid to a great extent by a recovering banking sector. The Iraq War—the issue that made Obama the nominee—has been ended on time and, vitally, with no troops left behind. Defense is being cut steadily, even as Obama has moved his own party away from a Pelosi-style reflexive defense of all federal entitlements. Under Obama, support for marriage equality and marijuana legalization has crested to record levels. Under Obama, a crucial state, New York, made marriage equality for gays an irreversible fact of American life. Gays now openly serve in the military, and the Defense of Marriage Act is dying in the courts, undefended by the Obama Justice Department. Vast government money has been poured into noncarbon energy investments, via the stimulus. Fuel-emission standards have been drastically increased. Torture was ended. Two moderately liberal women replaced men on the Supreme Court. Oh, yes, and the liberal holy grail that eluded Johnson and Carter and Clinton, nearly universal health care, has been set into law. Politifact recently noted that of 508 specific promises, a third had been fulfilled and only two have not had some action taken on them. To have done all this while simultaneously battling an economic hurricane makes Obama about as honest a follow-through artist as anyone can expect from a politician.

What liberals have never understood about Obama is that he practices a show-don’t-tell, long-game form of domestic politics. What matters to him is what he can get done, not what he can immediately take credit for. And so I railed against him for the better part of two years for dragging his feet on gay issues. But what he was doing was getting his Republican defense secretary and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs to move before he did. The man who made the case for repeal of “don’t ask, don’t tell” was, in the end, Adm. Mike Mullen. This took time—as did his painstaking change in the rule barring HIV-positive immigrants and tourists—but the slow and deliberate and unprovocative manner in which it was accomplished made the changes more durable. Not for the first time, I realized that to understand Obama, you have to take the long view. Because he does.

Or take the issue of the banks. Liberals have derided him as a captive of Wall Street, of being railroaded by Larry Summers and Tim Geithner into a too-passive response to the recklessness of the major U.S. banks. But it’s worth recalling that at the start of 2009, any responsible president’s priority would have been stabilization of the financial system, not the exacting of revenge. Obama was not elected, despite liberal fantasies, to be a left-wing crusader. He was elected as a pragmatic, unifying reformist who would be more responsible than Bush.

And what have we seen? A recurring pattern. To use the terms Obama first employed in his inaugural address: the president begins by extending a hand to his opponents; when they respond by raising a fist, he demonstrates that they are the source of the problem; then, finally, he moves to his preferred position of moderate liberalism and fights for it without being effectively tarred as an ideologue or a divider. This kind of strategy takes time. And it means there are long stretches when Obama seems incapable of defending himself, or willing to let others to define him, or simply weak. I remember those stretches during the campaign against Hillary Clinton. I also remember whose strategy won out in the end.

This is where the left is truly deluded. By misunderstanding Obama’s strategy and temperament and persistence, by grandstanding on one issue after another, by projecting unrealistic fantasies onto a candidate who never pledged a liberal revolution, they have failed to notice that from the very beginning, Obama was playing a long game. He did this with his own party over health-care reform. He has done it with the Republicans over the debt. He has done it with the Israeli government over stopping the settlements on the West Bank—and with the Iranian regime, by not playing into their hands during the Green Revolution, even as they gunned innocents down in the streets. Nothing in his first term—including the complicated multiyear rollout of universal health care—can be understood if you do not realize that Obama was always planning for eight years, not four. And if he is reelected, he will have won a battle more important than 2008: for it will be a mandate for an eight-year shift away from the excesses of inequality, overreach abroad, and reckless deficit spending of the last three decades. It will recapitalize him to entrench what he has done already and make it irreversible.

Yes, Obama has waged a war based on a reading of executive power that many civil libertarians, including myself, oppose. And he has signed into law the indefinite detention of U.S. citizens without trial (even as he pledged never to invoke this tyrannical power himself). But he has done the most important thing of all: excising the cancer of torture from military detention and military justice. If he is not reelected, that cancer may well return. Indeed, many on the right appear eager for it to return.

Sure, Obama cannot regain the extraordinary promise of 2008. We’ve already elected the nation’s first black president and replaced a tongue-tied dauphin with a man of peerless eloquence. And he has certainly failed to end Washington’s brutal ideological polarization, as he pledged to do. But most Americans in polls rightly see him as less culpable for this impasse than the GOP. Obama has steadfastly refrained from waging the culture war, while the right has accused him of a “war against religion.” He has offered to cut entitlements (and has already cut Medicare), while the Republicans have refused to raise a single dollar of net revenue from anyone. Even the most austerity-driven government in Europe, the British Tories, are to the left of that. And it is this Republican intransigence—from the 2009 declaration by Rush Limbaugh that he wants Obama “to fail” to the Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s admission that his primary objective is denying Obama a second term—that has been truly responsible for the deadlock. And the only way out of that deadlock is an electoral rout of the GOP, since the language of victory and defeat seems to be the only thing it understands.

If I sound biased, that’s because I am. Biased toward the actual record, not the spin; biased toward a president who has conducted himself with grace and calm under incredible pressure, who has had to manage crises not seen since the Second World War and the Depression, and who as yet has not had a single significant scandal to his name. “To see what is in front of one’s nose needs a constant struggle,” George Orwell once wrote. What I see in front of my nose is a president whose character, record, and promise remain as grotesquely underappreciated now as they were absurdly hyped in 2008. And I feel confident that sooner rather than later, the American people will come to see his first term from the same calm, sane perspective. And decide to finish what they started.

JANUARY – Week #3: “Jon Huntsman quits”

Jon Huntsman quits Republican presidential race, endorses Mitt Romney

By and , Published: January 15

MYRTLE BEACH, S.C. — Former Utah governor Jon Huntsman abandoned his quest for the presidency Monday morning with an endorsement of former Massachusetts governorMitt Romney and an unexpectedly sharp condemnation of the “toxic” tone that the Republican primary battle has taken.

“This race has degenerated into an onslaught of negative and personal attacks not worthy of the American people and not worthy off this critical time in American history,” the former Utah governor said in a news conference in which he was flanked by his wife, children, father and South Carolina supporters.

Huntsman did not name names in aiming criticism at his rivals, but he did take a shot at President Obama for engaging in what Huntsman called “class warfare” and said it contributed to divisiveness in American politics. But Huntsman, who often talked on the campaign trail about rebuilding trust in the political process, made clear that he thinks the GOP race has taken an ugly turn.

Huntsman’s move comes less than a week after he placed a weak third in the New Hampshire primary. He had staked his entire candidacy on a strong finish there. Despite the outcome, he had vowed to take his campaign to South Carolina, calling his finish a “ticket to ride” in the upcoming contest, despite the long odds.

By Sunday, however, he had concluded that the better course was to bow out of the race, the officials said. Huntsman will make his announcement in Myrtle Beach, and, according to one campaign official, will urge Republicans to rally behind Romney as the GOP’s best hope of defeating President Obama in November.

“There was no sense standing in the way of Romney,” one Huntsman adviser said. “Every vote we took in South Carolina and Florida was from him.”

Romney is battling to win the Palmetto State primary, which will be held Saturday, and a victory could effectively end the nomination fight after only three contests. Romney won the Iowa caucuses by just eight votes but cruised to an impressive victory in New Hampshire.

Huntsman’s decision to leave the contest and support Romney should help the former Massachusetts governor in South Carolina, as he will be the lone candidate making a direct pitch to the establishment wing of the GOP.

The rest of the field — former House speaker Newt Gingrich (Ga.), former senator Rick Santor­um (Pa.) and Texas Gov. Rick Perry — are appealing to the party’s most conservative voters. Rep. Ron Paul (Tex.) has his own constituency, which is expected to continue to deliver votes for him.

Santorum won the endorsement of a group of evangelical Christian leaders over the weekend, and he hopes it will help coalesce the party’s conservative base around his candidacy. But neither Gingrich nor Perry is backing off. A splintered conservative vote is Romney’s path to victory in a primary that has supported the eventual nominee in every Republican presidential race since 1980.

The remaining candidates will debate in Myrtle Beach on Monday at 9 p.m. in a forum that will be aired on Fox News. They will square off again Thursday at 8 p.m. in Charleston, S.C., in an event to be aired on CNN.

Huntsman informed his senior staff of his decision Sunday night after discussing it with his family. According to one official, they concluded that, despite what he believed was some momentum from his third-place finish in New Hampshire, his continuation in the race would only hinder Romney’s candidacy and that it was best to get out now rather than take votes away from the GOP front-runner.

Huntsman’s decision to drop out was conveyed to the Romney campaign in a telephone call Sunday night from John Weaver, the architect of the Huntsman campaign, to Stuart Stevens, the chief strategist on Romney’s team. According to an official, they were caught “totally by surprise.”

Huntsman joined the race in June, just weeks after returning from China, where he had served as U.S. ambassador for the Obama administration. His entry brought considerable media attention.

Obama advisers considered him a potentially strong general-election candidate, but winning the nomination was always a long shot because of his late entry and his difficulty finding space in the crowded GOP field. From the start his service as Obama’s envoy to China created resistance to his bid among many Republicans.

Huntsman’s record as governor included conservative and moderate elements, but he never found a constituency upon which to base his campaign. As a candidate, he seemed out of step with a party that had shifted sharply to the right while he was in Beijing.

His campaign got off to an awkward start when he announced in the shadow of the Statue of Liberty, attempting to mimic Ronald Reagan’s use of the symbolic setting during the 1980 general-election campaign. But the event lacked a sharp focus and set a tone for what was to come. Huntsman did not shine in debates, which have proved extraordinarily important. A reference to a Nirvana song during one of the early forums fell flat, leaving many in the political community wondering to whom he was trying to appeal.

Huntsman comes from a wealthy family but struggled to raise money for his bid. A super PAC that had the financial support of his father spent considerable money in New Hampshire, but his campaign there never achieved the kind of support he needed to become a strong contender.

Like the other candidates, he was hoping to become the alternative to Romney, but in choosing New Hampshire he was fighting Romney on what was essentially the former Massachusetts governor’s home turf. Huntsman was drawn to the Granite State by the fact that independents play a sizable role in the primary.

Last Tuesday, he captured 22 percent of the independent vote there but still trailed Romney and Paul. He won 10 percent of those who identified themselves as Republicans, a fatal flaw for any candidate vying for the nomination.

There were bright spots in his campaign, the most obvious being the accolades for his three oldest daughters, who billed themselves as the “Jon 2012 girls” and who became an Internet phenomenon after producing a video mocking a strange political ad for the candidacy of Herman Cain.

Huntsman is the second candidate to quit since voting began in Iowa on Jan. 3. Rep. Michele Bachmann (Minn.) stepped aside after a disappointing finish there.

Cillizza reported from Washington.

Published in: 2012 Election, A MUST READ on January 16, 2012 at9:12 AM Comments (0)

JANUARY – Week #3: “Donors Gave as Santorum Won Earmarks”

By and

The announcements flowed out of Rick Santorum’s Senate office: a $3.5 million federal grant to Piasecki Aircraft to help it test a new helicopter propeller technology; another $3.5 million to JLG Industries to bolster its bid to build all-terrain forklifts for the military; $1.4 million to Medico Industries to upgrade equipment for its munitions work.

Each of the news releases represented an earmark or, in some cases, multiple ones — the practice by which members of Congress set aside money in federal spending bills for what critics often denounce as pet projects back home.

Mr. Santorum, who picked up the endorsement of a group of prominent Christian conservative leaders on Saturday, has been trying to persuade conservatives to coalesce behind his candidacy. His rivals for the Republican presidential nomination have seized upon his spending record in an effort to cast doubt on his fiscal conservative bona fides.

But an examination of Mr. Santorum’s earmark record sheds light on another aspect of his political personality, one that is at odds with the reformer image he has tried to convey on the trail: his prowess as a Washington insider.

A review of some of his earmarks, viewed alongside his political donations, suggests that the river of federal money Mr. Santorum helped direct to Pennsylvania paid off handsomely in the form of campaign cash.

Earmarks, long a hallmark of a pay-to-play culture in Washington, have become largely taboo among lawmakers of both parties. But that element of Mr. Santorum’s record has mostly gone unexplored, in part because transparency rules governing earmarks did not go into effect until after he left office.

In just one piece of legislation, the defense appropriations bill for the 2006 fiscal year, Mr. Santorum helped secure $124 million in federal financing for 54 earmarks, according to a tally by Taxpayers for Common Sense, a budget watchdog group. In that year’s election cycle, Mr. Santorum’s Senate campaign committee and his “leadership PAC” took in more than $200,000 in contributions from people associated with the companies that benefited or their lobbyists, an analysis of campaign finance records by The New York Times shows.

A senior adviser to the Santorum campaign, John Brabender, said Friday that contributions from earmark recipients would “not have been a factor in any way” in the senator’s decision to support their projects, adding that they were a fraction of the more than 100,000 people who gave money to Mr. Santorum’s 2006 re-election campaign.

“We can’t control when somebody made a contribution,” Mr. Brabender said. “Clearly, there would never have been any type of indication from the Senate office or anybody else that a contribution would be warranted or helpful.”

In all, Taxpayers for Common Sense estimated, Mr. Santorum helped secure more than $1 billion in earmarks during his Senate career, which stretched from 1995 through 2006. But because federal lawmakers did not have to disclose them, as they must do today, it is nearly impossible to produce a complete list.

With the defense bill, the group went through a laborious process of matching up thousands of projects in the legislation with news releases issued by lawmakers, as well as other sources.

It is similarly difficult to rank Mr. Santorum against his Senate peers because of how opaque the process was. But budget observers said it was safe to characterize him as a vigorous practitioner. As a result, the issue has increasingly become a target for Mr. Santorum’s opponents in the Republican race.

An outside group supporting Mitt Romney is spending several million dollars in Florida on television advertisements attacking Mr. Santorum for pushing billions of dollars in “wasteful pork,” including voting for the infamous “Bridge to Nowhere” project in Alaska. Gov. Rick Perry and Representative Ron Paul, both of Texas, have been boring into Mr. Santorum on earmarks as well.

While Mr. Santorum has defended earmarks as a legitimate use of Congressional power, he has also conceded that the practice got out of hand and should be suspended. Even so, he has argued that the focus on earmarks obscures bigger concerns, namely the need for entitlement reform.

“We’re focused on earmarks, and it’s wrong,” Mr. Santorum said at a recent campaign stop in Hilton Head, S.C. “We’re ignoring the elephant in the room.”

Typical of Mr. Santorum’s earmarks was the $3.5 million grant that he and Pennsylvania’s other senator at the time, Arlen Specter, helped secure for Piasecki Aircraft, based in Essington, Pa.

The Piasecki family, which had been longtime supporters of both men, contributed about $12,000 to Mr. Santorum in the first five years of his Senate career, but the steady stream of contributions trickled to a halt in 1999, according to Federal Election Commission data compiled by the Center for Responsive Politics, a nonprofit research group. Then, in June 2005, Frank Piasecki, the company’s founder, and his son John contributed $3,000 to Mr. Santorum’s re-election campaign.

The next month, John Piasecki sent a letter to Mr. Santorum asking for his help in the appropriations process. Mr. Piasecki included Army correspondence expressing support for the project, which involved an experimental helicopter technology. Less than a week later, Mr. Santorum wrote on the company’s behalf to Senator Ted Stevens, an Alaska Republican who was chairman of the Defense Appropriations Subcommittee, according to documents provided to The Times by Piasecki Aircraft.

During the 2006 election cycle, members of the Piasecki family donated more than $16,000 to Mr. Santorum’s campaign.

John Piasecki, now the company’s chief executive officer, said the federal money augmented a military program that the company had already won through a competitive bidding process, adding that Mr. Santorum had backed the project only after making sure it had Army support.

“He was very much by the book,” said Mr. Piasecki, who added that the timing of his family’s contributions to Mr. Santorum had to do with the election cycle, not the federal award. “We supported Rick Santorum on his own merits, and he was a very effective advocate on our behalf as well.”

In the same appropriations bill, Mr. Santorum helped secure another $3.5 million for JLG Industries. The company had been hoping to position itself to compete for a lucrative military contract to build all-terrain forklifts. In 2005 it hired a lobbying firm, the American Continental Group, paying $100,000 in fees over the course of the year.

The firm’s lobbyists were well acquainted with Mr. Santorum, participating in regular breakfast meetings he hosted for lobbyists. The meetings would later become a flashpoint in Mr. Santorum’s unsuccessful re-election campaign in 2006 against Bob Casey, a Democrat, who accused Mr. Santorum of cozying up to special interests. Donors affiliated with American Continental contributed roughly $12,000 to Mr. Santorum’s campaign in 2005.

Mr. Santorum, who went on to consult for American Continental after leaving the Senate, eventually secured the $3.5 million for JLG, a cash infusion that helped the company get its factory in order and train its workers in preparation for its bid on the Pentagon contract, according to former company officials.

The following year, a half-dozen JLG executives contributed $6,000 to Mr. Santorum’s re-election effort. The executives also donated the previous year to Representative Bill Shuster, a Republican who represents the Pennsylvania district where the company’s manufacturing plant is located. Other than that, none of the executives appear to have given to a federal candidate before, records show.

William M. Lasky, who was the chairman and chief executive of JLG at the time, said he was the one who encouraged his team to contribute to Mr. Santorum. “It was just a token on our part to support an official who obviously understood business,” Mr. Lasky said.

In some cases, while representatives from the companies that got a grant did not donate to Mr. Santorum, their lobbyists did. Vision Technologies, a company based in Arkansas with a plant in Pennsylvania, hired IKON Public Affairs in 2004 to help it pursue federal money, paying the lobbyists $100,000 over the next two years.

The company received a $3 million federal grant in the defense appropriations bill to develop a video system to monitor machinery aboard gas turbine ships. Two of the lobbyists on the account, Craig Snyder and Peter Grollman, contributed nearly $9,000 total to Mr. Santorum’s leadership PAC and his campaign committee, mostly in 2005.

And the lobbying firm Blank Rome, Mr. Santorum’s largest single source of contributions during the 2006 election cycle — the firm’s executives gave more than $100,000 to his campaign — had several clients who got help from Mr. Santorum with earmarks and other legislation.

“This is the thing about earmarks,” said Ryan Alexander, the president of Taxpayers for Common Sense. “It’s not that every project is horrible. It’s not that it’s inappropriate for lawmakers to garner resources for their constituents.

“The problem is it looks like it is pay-to-play. It looks like: ‘You want to get an earmark? You make a contribution.’ ”

JANUARY – Week #3: “Texas Redrawn: Voting Rights, States’ Power In Court”

by Nina Totenberg

- January 9, 2012

The U.S. Supreme Court hears arguments Monday in a tangle of Texas redistricting cases, with repercussions beyond the Lone Star State. Consolidated into one test, the cases pit the Voting Rights Act and its protections for minority voters against state legislative powers — with an overlaying sheen of sheer political calculus.

The case has been called a puzzle of three courts, a reference to the interplay between two lower courts and the Supreme Court.

A Chance To Redraw

The Constitution mandates that, every 10 years, states must redraw their legislative and congressional district lines to reflect population shifts documented in the decennial census. Texas is one of the big beneficiaries this year. The state is gaining four additional congressional seats because of its booming population, fueled largely by Latinos. Of the 4 million new state residents, 65 percent are Hispanic.

Legislative redistricting is almost always an ugly process, stoked by partisanship and self-interest. But one thing that redistricting cannot do under the Voting Rights Act is dilute minority voting power.

That requirement extends to every state, but states like Texas — with a demonstrated history of racial and ethnic discrimination — must submit their redistricting plans in advance for pre-clearance to the U.S. Justice Department or to a three-judge federal district court in Washington, D.C.

This, however, is the first redistricting year since the Voting Rights Act was enacted in 1965 that the White House and Justice Department are run by Democrats. It is also the first time that Texas, now controlled by Republican office-holders, has entirely bypassed the quick, 60-day pre-clearance mechanism provided by the Justice Department.

District Court Demands The Facts

Instead of heading to the Justice Department, the state opted to seek pre-clearance from the federal court in Washington, D.C., a more open-ended procedure that was made longer when Texas rejected an early trial date and sought to win outright without a trial.

That didn’t work out well for the state.

In November, the three-judge court, composed of both Republican and Democratic appointees, ruled unanimously that the state had failed to show that its plan was not discriminatory. The court then ordered a trial to determine the facts.

In the meantime, with the Texas primary elections just three months away and no redistricting map in place, the Washington court took an unusual step. It gave the green light to a different three-judge federal court in Texas to come up with an interim electoral map.

Texas Court Gives Interim Plan

The Texas court rejected the state plan, which would likely have resulted in three out of four new congressional seats going to the GOP. The court redrew the lines to more reflect Latino voting power, with the likely result being that three of the four new seats would go to Democrats.

The state then went to the U.S. Supreme Court seeking to block the interim plan. The high court blocked the plan and went further, agreeing to review the Texas court’s interim plan even as the trial is set to begin before the pre-clearance court in Washington next week.

The legal dilemma facing the Supreme Court is this: It can’t default to the old legislative map. Because of the huge population growth, that map violates the one-person, one-vote principle.

But the new map drawn by the GOP-controlled Texas Legislature has not been pre-cleared yet under the Voting Rights Act, and there are strong hints from the Washington, D.C., court that the state plan illegally minimizes minority voting power.

That leaves the interim plan, but the state of Texas contends that it, too, is invalid because the court in Texas “substituted its judgment” for the Legislature’s without any finding of legal violations.

“Do you just have the courts start drawing from scratch?” asks former Bush administration Solicitor General Paul Clement, who is representing Texas. “Or … we would suggest, you start with the legislative map and you only start redrawing it if you have a finding of a likely constitutional or statutory violation.”

Primaries Approaching

The state is asking the Supreme Court to void the interim plan and put in place the state’s proposed redistricting plan for now, while pre-clearance is pending. The state notes that with primaries now scheduled for early April, candidates who need to know where to run and election administrators who need to print ballots are in dire need of a map for the 2012 election.

But minority groups, backed by the Obama administration, say the state’s problems are of its own making because it has long known the timetable. Those defending the interim plan note that the state chose to bypass the quick Justice Department pre-clearance mechanism, and they maintain that the state has deliberately dragged out the pre-clearance process in court.

“Texas’ claim that this process has bogged down and, therefore, it should somehow be excused [from complying with the Voting Rights Act] is a little bit reminiscent of the claim of somebody who kills his parents and then throws himself on the mercy of the court because he’s an orphan,” says Pam Karlan, a Stanford law professor who is one of the lawyers challenging the state plan.

Take It On Faith?

Indeed, Karlan notes that Texas has redrawn a district that the Supreme Court threw out just five years ago on grounds that it illegally minimized Latino voting power.

While Texas claims that the state Legislature’s map is entitled to the presumption of good faith, those challenging the map contend that allowing Texas to use a plan that has not been pre-cleared would be an end run that effectively nullifies the minority voter protections in the Voting Rights Act.

As complicated as the case is, reading the legal tea leaves is even more difficult. By expediting consideration of the interim plan, the Supreme Court would seem to have signaled serious doubts about the plan devised by the federal court in Texas.

At the same time, the Washington, D.C., pre-clearance court has signaled even more overtly that the plan drawn up by the Texas Legislature would seem to be in clear violation of the law.

With both the interim plan and the Texas Legislature’s plan under the legal microscope now at the same time in different courts, the three-court puzzle could turn out to be something of a Rubik’s Cube.

[Copyright 2012 National Public Radio]

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JANUARY – Week #2: “Cut out of the margins”

by Leonard Pitts Jr.

So here’s how it is:

You have no driver’s license because you have nothing to drive. You have no passport because you’ve never been out of the country. You have no other photo ID because you have no bank account. You work and get paid under the table, a wad of cash sliding from hand to hand.

It is a life lived in the margins. And if South Carolina and a number of other GOP-controlled states have their way, it will be a life to which a significant new impediment will be added: you will not be able to vote.

Over the holiday, the Justice Department rejected a South Carolina law requiring a photo ID – as opposed to just a voter registration card – for would-be voters. The department called the law discriminatory against African-Americans. Under the Voting Rights Act of 1965, South Carolina and other states and localities with histories of infringing the voting rights of African-Americans are required to get federal approval before changing their voting laws. This is the first time the feds have rejected such a change since 1994.

South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley has blasted the decision as political. She probably has a point. The law would have disproportionately affected the poor, who are disproportionately likely, for the reasons outlined above, to lack photo IDs. The poor are disproportionately black, and black people are disproportionately likely to vote Democratic. It would be naive to believe that did not enter into the thinking of the Obama Justice Department.

But the inverse is also true. As similar voter ID laws are passed in other Republican-controlled states – including those that are not covered by the Voting Rights Act – it would be naive to believe politics does not also enter the GOP’s thinking. Though lawmakers swear their only interest is to combat voting fraud (which is not known to be a rampant problem), it is difficult not to feel their true intent is to suppress the black vote.

Granted, race is nowhere mentioned in the voter ID bills. It was not mentioned in bills imposing grandfather clauses, poll taxes and literacy tests either. All were officially race-neutral, yet the intention and effect was to bar blacks from voting.

As Richard Nixon once said of his War on Drugs, another “race-neutral” policy that somehow victimizes mostly blacks, the idea is to target African-Americans while appearing not to.

The Justice Department was right to block this law, but it is nonetheless hard not to feel a certain pox-on-all-their-houses cynicism as people who live on the margins are both targeted – and defended – for political reasons, but otherwise go unremarked and unrecalled.

Democrats depend upon the votes of black and/or poor people but do little to earn them – no jobs training, no criminal justice system reform, no attention whatsoever to the things that delimit their lives. Meantime, Republicans write off the votes of black and/or poor people and do all they can to suppress them.

They are made mute and forgotten even as the public square rings like a cash register and moneyed interests ka-ching! their way into positions of power and influence with politicians on both sides of the aisle who are ostensibly elected to represent us all – even if we lack a photo ID.

Corporations are people, we have been told. Poor people, evidently, are not.

Leonard Pitts Jr., is a columnist for the Miami Herald. His email address is lpitts@miamiherald.com.

JANUARY – Week #2: “PAC Ads to Attack Romney as Predatory Capitalist”

By and

MANCHESTER, N.H. — Thanks to a $5 million donation from a wealthy casino owner, a group supporting Newt Gingrich plans to place advertisements in South Carolina this week attacking Mitt Romney as a predatory capitalist who destroyed jobs and communities, a full-scale Republican assault on Mr. Romney’s business background.

The advertisements, a counterpunch to a campaign waged against Mr. Gingrich by a group backing Mr. Romney, will be built on excerpts from a scathing movie about Bain Capital, the private equity firm Mr. Romney once ran. The movie, financed by a Republican operative opposed to Mr. Romney, includes emotional interviews with people who lost jobs at companies that Bain bought and later sold.

“We had to load up the U-Haul because we done lost our home,” one woman says.

Democrats have signaled that they intend to make Mr. Romney’s history at Bain a central part of their case against him if he wins the Republican nomination. But Bain has also emerged as an issue in the Republican primary, despite the party’s free market stance and business-friendly policies, reflecting the depth of public anger about the economy. At an appearance here on Sunday, Mr. Gingrich suggested that Bain’s approach was to carry out “clever legal ways to loot a company.”

But the planned advertisements appear to be intended to elevate the subject to a new level as Mr. Gingrich and the other Republican contenders begin to run out of time to slow Mr. Romney’ s progress toward the nomination. They are the latest example of how “super PACs” are carrying out attacks in sync with their preferred candidates and in the process helping to reshape the presidential race. Super PACs can raise unlimited amounts of money but are barred from coordinating with the campaigns they are supporting.

The Bain-centered campaign strikes at the heart of Mr. Romney’s argument for his qualifications as president — that as a successful executive in the private sector, he learned how to create jobs — and advances an argument that President Obama’s re-election campaign has signaled it will employ aggressively against Mr. Romney.

“His business success comes from raiding and destroying businesses — putting people out of work, stealing their health care,” said Rick Tyler, a senior adviser to the pro-Gingrich super PAC, Winning Our Future, which recently bought the film, “King of Bain: When Mitt Romney Came to Town,” after groups backing two other Republican candidates passed up opportunities to use it.

The movie scenes and the influx of money that enable the pro-Gingrich group to run the advertising campaign have “all the makings of a game-changer,” Mr. Tyler said.

Winning Our Future got the money for the campaign from Sheldon Adelson, a billionaire casino owner in Las Vegas who has long supported Mr. Gingrich.

The group said it would spend $3.4 million initially on radio and TV advertisements starting Wednesday in South Carolina, where the campaign will move after New Hampshire. Mr. Gingrich, who held the lead in the polls in South Carolina last month before falling back, attributes his fade there and earlier in Iowa, where he finished fourth in the caucuses last week, to a deluge of attack advertisements from a super PAC supporting Mr. Romney, Restore Our Future.

When Mr. Gingrich accused Mr. Romney at a debate on Saturday in New Hampshire of following a “Wall Street model” where “you can basically take out all the money, leaving behind the workers,” Mr. Romney retorted that he had helped create 100,000 jobs, citing successes like Staples.

“It’s puzzling to see Speaker Gingrich and his supporters continue their attacks on free enterprise,” said a spokeswoman for Mr. Romney, Andrea Saul. “This is the type of criticism we’ve come to expect from President Obama and his left-wing allies at Moveon.org.”

The film’s producer, Barry Bennett, a former consultant to a super PAC that supports Gov. Rick Perry of Texas, said he came up with the idea himself.

Mr. Bennett said he had bought an “opposition research book” on Mr. Romney compiled by the staff of a Republican rival during the 2008 campaign and had found its contents “stunning.”

“David Axelrod,” he said, referring to Mr. Obama’s strategist, “is going to have a heyday with this, and Republicans need to know this story before we nominate this guy.”

He said he had commissioned Jason Killian Meath, an advertising executive and freelance filmmaker, to direct the movie. Mr. Meath worked on the Romney campaign in 2008 as an associate of Stuart Stevens, who is Mr. Romney’s strategist.

Mr. Bennett said he paid the film’s entire cost, $40,000, from his own pocket; it was never an official project of the pro-Perry group, Make Us Great Again. He said had he never showed it to the pro-Perry group, which he left in October.

But people with knowledge of the film’s provenance said that officials at Make Us Great Again were shown an early portion of the film, and had told Mr. Bennett that they had no interest in using it or paying for it.

In a statement, Scott Rials, the executive director, said: “Make Us Great Again had nothing to do with this video in any way. Period. Barry Bennett worked with us during the startup phase of the super PAC, but we are now working on different projects.”

Mr. Bennett also shopped the film to a super PAC supporting another candidate, Jon M. Huntsman Jr. But officials with the group, Our Destiny, also passed on the film, according to a person with ties to the group.

“We made the decision that that was just not the kind of campaign we wanted to participate in,” said the person, who asked for anonymity to describe private negotiations.

Mr. Tyler, a former long-time aide to Mr. Gingrich who helped set up the super PAC supporting him, disagreed.  “I’m a capitalist, I’m a conservative,” he said. “I’ve spent a lot of time defending free enterprise from a biblical perspective.”

But Bain Capital, he said, did not fit the model of responsible corporate citizenship.  “If this is free enterprise, then conservatives should have nothing to do with it,” he said. “It is predatory paper-shuffling. Mitt Romney was engaged in the engineered destruction of free enterprise.”

The full 28-minute movie, which the group plans to post online, cuts back and forth between images of Mr. Romney’s “$12 million California beach house” and men and women describing the pain of losing jobs.

A man in a Vietnam veterans hat says: “Who am I? I’m Bob Safford. Mitt Romney and those guys, they don’t care who I am.”

In news clips in the film, Mr. Romney is jeered at for calling corporations “people” and explains that capitalism is “creative destruction.”

Mr. Adelson’s $5 million contribution instantly makes Winning Our Future a major player on the political landscape.

A supporter of conservative causes, including the Republican Jewish Coalition, Mr. Adelson is especially close to Mr. Gingrich, a kinship that stretches back to the former speaker’s days in the House and has evolved into a relationship that is as much personal as political, according to people who know both men.

Mr. Gingrich, who has vowed to run a positive campaign, has said he will tell supporters not to donate to any group that runs negative advertisements on his behalf. Mr. Tyler said the Romney campaign might find the commercials negative.  “But I think voters will find them instructive and positive and help them make a decision,” he said.

JANUARY – Week #2: “Is a Chinese economic slump on the horizon?”

By

Even China? Could the world’s economic juggernaut, having grown an average of 10 percent annually for three decades, face a slowdown or what for China would be a recession? Does it have a real estate “bubble” about to “pop”? What would be the global consequences? Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner visits China and Japan this week. These questions form a backdrop. With Europe’s slump and America’s sluggish economy, a sizable Chinese slowdown would be bad news.

China inspires ambivalence. Its policies — especially its undervalued exchange rate — are skewed to give it an advantage on world markets. This has cost jobs in the United States, Europe and developing countries. Still, China is now such a powerful economic force that an abrupt slowdown would ripple beyond its borders. Trade would suffer. China’s protectionism might intensify to offset job loss. If surpluses of steel and other commodities were dumped on world markets, prices and production elsewhere would fall.

There are warning signs. Economist Nicholas Lardy of the Peterson Institute cites three. First, Europe’s slump has weakened China’s trade; Europe buys about a fifth of its exports. Second, housing is showing signs of a bubble and is deflating. Finally, China’s government will have a harder time deploying a stimulus than during the 2008-09 financial crisis. Government debt rose from 26 percent of gross domestic product in 2007 to 43 percent of GDP in 2010.

How all this affects China’s growth is controversial. “Most likely, China will have a soft landing,” says Justin Yifu Lin, the World Bank’s chief economist. “Growth goes to 8 percent or 8.5 percent.” That’s down from about 9 percent in 2011. Government debt is still low enough to permit ample stimulus, Lin thinks. Many forecasts agree.

But skepticism is mounting. The Japanese securities firm Nomura sees a one-in-three possibility of a “hard landing” — a drop in growth to 5 percent or less. To Americans, now experiencing annual economic growth around 2 percent, this may seem fabulous. But for China’s modernizing economy and huge labor force, a 5 percent growth rate would raise unemployment and social discontent. The adverse GDP swing would roughly equal the U.S. decline in the 2007-09 recession.

Housing may settle who’s right. China has vastly overinvested in housing, argues Lardy in a new book (“Sustaining China’s Economic Growth After the Global Financial Crisis”). The main reason, he says, is that financial policies prevent savers from realizing adequate returns on their money. The stock market is seen as rigged. Government regulations keep interest rates on bank deposits — the main outlet for savings — low. From 2004 to 2010, they were less than inflation. Frustrated savers invest in housing, where prices are not regulated.

The result seems a classic speculative bubble. People buy because they believe prices will go up; and prices go up because people buy. A 2010 survey found that 18 percent of Beijing households owned two or more properties; another 2010 survey of all cities found that 40 percent of purchases were for investment. Many units, Lardy reports, are vacant because rents in Beijing, Shanghai and other major cities are low.

Unfortunately, booms breed busts. Buyers ultimately recognize that rising prices reflect artificial demand. Purchases slow. Prices fall. New building declines. The process feeds on itself. With modest imbalances, the result is a correction. Otherwise, there’s a crash.

Which does China face? A popped real estate bubble could exert a big drag. Housing construction exceeds 10 percent of GDP. That’s historically high, says Lardy. At a similar stage of economic development, Taiwan’s housing investment was 4.3 percent of GDP. In the recent U.S. real estate boom, housing peaked at 6 percent of GDP. In China, housing stimulates much consumer spending (furniture, appliances) and accounts for 40 percent of steel production, notes Lardy. Land sales are also a big revenue source for local governments. All would suffer from a housing bust.

There are mitigating factors. Outside Beijing and Shanghai, it’s unclear that housing prices are “out of line with household income growth,” says economist Eswar Prasad of Cornell University. Chinese buyers also typically make large cash payments for their properties. Compared to United States, a housing bust is less likely to become a banking crisis as mortgages sour.

Whatever happens, China’s economic model is reaching its limits, as Lardy argues. It has relied on exports, promoted through the controlled exchange rate, and investment, including housing, subsidized by cheap credit. Meanwhile, Chinese savers have been punished by the low returns on deposits. This dampens their incomes and consumption spending. The trouble is that the global slowdown threatens exports and housing’s excesses threaten investment. Unless China can switch to stronger consumption spending, its economy will slow — or it will achieve growth by becoming even more predatory toward other countries.

Published in: A Challenge, Economics, Foreign Affairs on at6:48 AM Comments (11)

JANUARY – Week #2: “Can I vote for a Mormon?”

By Ken Starr

Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary looms large on the political horizon. In the midst of lively public debates over taxes, jobs, the national debt and similarly important questions related to the future vitality of our nation, a different kind of question continues to privately occupy the minds of some prospective voters: Can I vote for a Mormon?

This is an important question in our constitutional democracy. Without endorsing or even praising (much less criticizing) any candidate, I strongly encourage Americans who would ask this question of themselves to consider and weigh thoughtfully our nation’s constitutional traditions. At their best, those are traditions of welcoming religious forbearance.

To support this proposition, I return to the founding of our constitutional republic — boasting as we rightly do the oldest Constitution in the history of the planet. Only 27 amendments have been ratified to that basic document over our 222 years as a representative democracy. In fashioning this remarkably enduring document, the 55 delegates to the Constitutional Convention in Philadelphia made it absolutely clear that no religious test should ever be imposed to hold office. The Founders also made clear that religious dissenters (such as the Quakers) should not be compelled to take an oath if doing so would be a violation of conscience. Building on those twin pillars of tolerance, the Supreme Court at its finest moments has likewise vigorously defended the right of all persons to participate in the democratic process, including holding office, without the burden of religious tests or qualifications.

According to the American political tradition, there are essential questions by which all office seekers are qualified, regardless of their faith journey or history. The first is: Does the candidate subscribe completely to our constitutional structure, including freedom of conscience for persons of all faiths — or no faith? A second question for the thoughtful voter is related to and flows from the first: Will the candidate subscribe, without any “mental hesitation or purpose of evasion,” to the oath to protect and defend America’s Constitution? If the answers to those closely connected questions are yes, then voters should proceed to cast their ballot on the basis of the candidate’s qualifications, platform and policy positions — not the candidate’s membership (or lack thereof) in a particular faith community.

In fact, a number of great presidents have come to the White House without membership in any faith community. Thomas Jefferson was a Deist and was vigorously attacked for his religious views (or lack thereof). Abraham Lincoln, as a matter of conscience, refused to join any church. Yet our nation’s capital rightly dedicates two of its most stately monuments to those two men of unorthodox spiritual worldviews.

More recently, the great cultural chasm between Catholics and Protestants was politically overcome with the election of John F. Kennedy. Similarly, then-Vice President Al Gore’s choice of Sen. Joe Lieberman, a practicing Jew, as his running mate in 2000 signaled the welcoming openness of America’s democratic experience to individuals who did not share the Christian faith but were honorable statesmen of steely commitment to America’s constitutional principles.

In my own life, I have drawn great strength from my religious practices and, according to the teachings of my faith tradition, I intend to continue to keep in prayer those who are chosen to lead our nation. That said, the litmus for our elected leaders must not be the church they attend but the Constitution they defend.

Citizens as voters do well when they pause to reflect on our nation’s history and traditions. If an unbeliever such as Jefferson or non-churchman like Lincoln can serve brilliantly as president, then America should stand — in an intolerant world characterized all too frequently by religious persecution — as a stirring example of welcoming hospitality for highly qualified men and women of good will seeking the nation’s highest office. Life experience, personal qualities and policy views are the pivotal points to guide Americans as they go to the polls in 2012.

JANUARY – Week #2: “Gays Deserve Same Rights”

By Jamie Tobias Neely
The Spokesman-Review

Last summer Dean Lynch and Michael Flannery decided it was finally time to plan their commitment ceremony. After all, Lynch’s mother was 79 and his grandmother 98.

So in celebration of the 25th anniversary of the day they met, Lynch and Flannery invited friends and family to a fairly traditional ceremony on the terrace of their South Hill home in August. A harpist played before the ceremony. Lynch brought in his grandmother; Flannery escorted Lynch’s mother. During the vows, the couple turned to the two older women for the rings.

And then Lynch and Flannery slid the bands onto their right hands, in recognition of the fact that they still cannot legally marry in the United States.

On Wednesday both men felt proud when Gov. Chris Gregoire made a heartfelt announcement of her support of same-sex marriage and the legislation that would legalize it in the state of Washington. “That was gutsy,” Flannery said. “She didn’t just quietly say to Lisa Brown, ‘If it comes to my desk, I’ll sign it.’ ”

It was July 26, 1986, when Lynch and Flannery met in Coeur d’Alene Park in Browne’s Addition. Lynch was taking a walk through the neighborhood, and Flannery was riding a bicycle. Six weeks later, Flannery says, “I was pretty sure he was the man I wanted to spend the rest of my life with.”

Through the years, the differences between a gay partnership and a legal marriage have been sharp. Lynch and Flannery point out that same-sex partners can’t count on an apartment lease applying to both of them equally, a house belonging to them jointly or their relationship being respected during a critical illness.

They haven’t added up the extra costs of the legal help they’ve received over the years. “I know we had to jump a lot more hoops living as loving, caring men than if we were married,” Flannery said.

Lynch, a retired social worker and a former Spokane City Council member, and Flannery, a retired stockbroker, have decided not to register as domestic partners in Washington. They’re waiting for same-sex marriage to be approved nationally. They see its legalization in Washington as an important next step.

“I wanted to wait until I had all the rights,” Flannery said. “I didn’t want it to be ‘married lite.’ ”

Flannery doesn’t expect churches to change their stances on same-sex marriage, but he does believe government should treat everyone equally.

So does Susan Hammond, a Spokane nurse. Late Wednesday night, after Gregoire’s speech, Hammond posted on Facebook a letter to her legislators. She invited her friends to forward it as well.

She wrote, “I am counting on your leadership and humanity to do the right thing so that my young adult son, who is gay, can live in a society that affirms who he is and allows him the same right his brothers already have: to marry the person of his choice.”

The opposition to same-sex marriage baffles Hammond. “I honestly don’t get it,” she says.

After all, the strongest argument against changing the law is that marriage has traditionally been defined as being between a man and a woman. But that’s like using a long-standing definition of slavery as an argument against emancipation.

This is, as Hammond says, “the civil rights issue of our time.”

Lynch, 61, and Flannery, 57, believe they’ll be allowed to legally marry in this country before they reach old age. When they do, they’ll finally move their wedding bands to their left hands.

Hammond believes her 21-year-old son’s life will be different than those of older gay men. “I hope in my lifetime that I go to his wedding, and I meet his husband,” she said.

Gregoire wisely evoked the image of gay couples and their children and their desire to be treated equally as families. She might also have addressed the needs of their mothers because the benefits of same-sex marriage ripple throughout extended families as well.

One day soon, every woman with a gay son in this country should have the chance to become, complete with a marriage license, the proud mother of one of the grooms.

Jamie Tobias Neely, a former associate editor at The Spokesman-Review, serves as an assistant professor of journalism at Eastern Washington University. She may be reached at jamietobiasneely @comcast.net.

JANUARY – Week #2: “Marriage isn’t working out”

Gary Crooks
The Spokesman-Review

It just isn’t working out. The differences are irreconcilable. It’s time to call it quits on this failed social experiment.

Despite the efforts of well-meaning people, the institution of marriage has been torn asunder. The guilty parties meant well, but the pairing of men with women may not be natural. The data certainly suggest this.

If it were natural, would every other marriage end in divorce? Would there be an increase in single-parent households? Would a dwindling number of American households contain a father, mother and children? Shouldn’t government pull the plug on a program with such a dismal record?

We’re told God created marriage, but He couldn’t have had this in mind.

We know the factors for successful marriages, but we don’t have the resolve to codify them. If we were serious about the sanctity of marriage and the government’s role in preserving it, we would’ve adopted several intrusive laws by now:

First, you must be at least 26 years old before getting married. Couples younger than this divorce at a much higher rate.

Second, both people must have a college degree. A diploma correlates strongly with marital longevity.

Third, you must have enough cash socked away to avoid arguments over money, which is the leading cause of divorce.

Fourth, premarital counseling is mandatory, as is regular church attendance. But note that religious couples who are inconsistent pew sitters are more apt to split than atheists and agnostics. So forced marches to sermons are essential.

Fifth, outlaw divorce.

Sixth, don’t let gay couples marry. There are no data for this, but shouldn’t we block them from marriage out of compassion? They’ll thank us later and perhaps proclaim: “There but for the grace of God go I.”

So, there you have it. A six-step plan to preserving the sanctity of marriage. Sure, it might give small-government folks some ulcers. They might believe that it’s wrong for government to choose who can marry and who can’t.

And they’d be right.

Doesn’t add up. Not to state the obvious, but divorce is the greatest threat to marriage. And many public moralists on this issue have split with their spouses. Massachusetts was the first state to adopt gay marriage. It has the lowest divorce rate in the country. The District of Columbia has the second-lowest rate. Gay and lesbian couples can get hitched there, too.

So if gay marriage is a threat to the institution, what’s taking so long for the numbers to bear this out?

Fear itself. So I was driving my daughter to school the other day and apologizing for making her late. She replied, “Don’t worry. They’re open ’til 3.”

Clearly, I’ve done a miserable job instilling fear and anxiety in this young lady. Must be her indifference to politics at such a young age. Or, perhaps, she thought of the consequences and wondered, “What’s the worst that can happen?”

Be a nice position for everyone to take, as they head for another political meltdown.

I’ve voted in nine presidential contests, and in each of them the consequences were deemed stark . Reagan will drop the Big One! Clinton will wreck the economy! Bush will destroy the environment! Obama will hatch his Marxist plot!

Liberals say they will move to Canada. Conservatives say they will take back America. Their extreme predictions never come true, but that doesn’t stop them. Home of the brave? No, land of the incessant worrywarts.

Politics in this country is increasingly filtered through the presidential prism. The fear is that this lone person will ruin the nation or rescue it. Relax; the Founding Fathers have this covered. The reason they established a system of checks and balances is to ensure that one person doesn’t have such power.

Remember this, so you can temper your positive and negative expectations.

Think of the most radical single change promulgated by a president in your lifetime. Did he do it alone? With no public support? Did the other branches of government never weigh in? Did the nation survive?

This constant state of fear doesn’t speak well of our country or ourselves. Electing a president is important, but it’s not an emergency. We still have it within our power to be happy and successful regardless of who wins.

So try to keep things in perspective. Even if your candidate doesn’t win, the country will still be open. And you’ll still be free to freak out.

Associate Editor Gary Crooks can be reached at garyc@spokesman.com or (509) 459-5026. Follow him on Twitter @GaryCrooks.

JANUARY – Week #2: “Romney overrides Santorum’s merit”

by Kathleen Parker
The Spokesman-Review

WASHINGTON – Iowa front-runners Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum have a little problem. Both are too nice to be mean to each other.

Who can throw the first punch in a tight race growing tighter?

This is why God made Newt Gingrich. The formerly self-anointed “nice guy,” the one who wasn’t going to go negative, has flip-flopped on protocol. Insisting that he lost Iowa to these lesser mortals because of Romney’s negative ads, he has declared that he’ll no longer make nice.

Shocking. To think that Gingrich, after being denied voter confidence in the caucuses, would decide to play steamroller. One can imagine his late-night wrestling matches, tossing beneath the weight of his conscience, turning to his muse:

“Callista, you know how much I hate to do this, but I owe it to the country to destroy that helmet-headed goody two-shoes. Oh, wait, no, come on, you know what I mean.”

There is method to Gingrich’s madness. In fact, though Romney spent more on ads, the most damaging ones for Gingrich came from Ron Paul’s campaign, which accused the former speaker of serial hypocrisy. But Gingrich has focused his anger and bitterness on the candidate he deems the greatest threat to his own candidacy. The battle for votes between Santorum and Romney, neither of whom wants to insult the other, most likely will be fought on the front lines of Gingrich’s own internal war.

Whether Santorum is a real threat to Romney, meanwhile, is a matter of small debate. The obvious answer is: Not really. Unquestionably, Santorum appeals to social conservatives who don’t have to guess at his sincerity. No one on the planet this side of the pope has walked the walk as Santorum has. He is in the Vatican’s vernacular res ipsa loquitur (the thing speaks for itself). But in a general election, his appeal weakens.

Even in Iowa, where caucus-goers tied Santorum with Romney, polls show that voters believe Romney has a better chance of winning the national election. Romney continues to lead by a healthy margin in New Hampshire. A new WMUR/University of New Hampshire poll found that 44 percent of those surveyed said they most likely would vote for Romney.

Santorum’s sudden rise as a potential favorite is only sudden if you weren’t watching Iowa the past year or so. The former senator from Pennsylvania has been all but carpooling as he visited all 99 counties. For his trouble, he was rewarded. But doing well among conservative, white Christians does not a national trend portend.

Despite his many fine qualities as a devout and devoted family man, and no one disputes his constancy in this realm, Santorum’s strengths are his weaknesses when it comes to the nation’s top job. He may be the Catholic’s Catholic, but the crucial issue this election year is business, not abortion. Though an effective senator – Santorum was instrumental in welfare reform even as he was a champion of the poor – he has mostly served in government. And though he touts his worker heritage, especially his immigrant grandfather who worked in the coal mines and his own childhood in Pennsylvania’s manufacturing belt, Santorum hasn’t any executive experience to compare with Romney’s.

People who worked with Santorum in Washington have marveled at his new maturity. Gone is the sometimes-arrogant Santorum, though he remains bellicose at times, promising, for instance, to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities. Perhaps humbled by defeat and personal loss, he is today a kinder, gentler version of his earlier political incarnation. He also has suffered some of the cruelest attacks of anyone in the blood sport of politics, some so vile that they don’t merit repetition here. Suffice to say, those who have attacked him personally couldn’t hold up Santorum’s socks in a contest of personal honor.

Nevertheless, the primary focus of the Republican Party is to nominate someone who can defeat Barack Obama. Pennsylvania is crucial to Obama’s re-election, and there’s no ignoring that Santorum lost his Senate seat in 2006 in his home state by a huge margin – 17 points. At the moment, some pollsters’ hypothetical match-ups show Obama tying or trailing Romney.

Santorum clearly has an important national role to play, especially in the debate about who we are, but Romney remains the GOP’s best bet.

Kathleen Parker’s email address is kathleenparker@washpost.com.

JANUARY – Week #2: “Huntsman, Out of Options”

Bets It All on New Hampshire

By

NEWPORT, N.H. — Jon M. Huntsman Jr. was in jeopardy of arriving late to his own rally here the other night. But his wife’s desperate need for caffeine forced them to stop for gas-station blend at the Bradford Market, where an admiring clerk added to their delay.

“You have a working knowledge of China,” the clerk, Jason Reid, told Mr. Huntsman, the ambassador to China until last spring. Mr. Reid said he would vote Huntsman in the Republican presidential primary on Tuesday. But, calling himself “a realist,” he added, “Say Romney does get the nomination or something like that: could you see yourself working in an executive position for him in some capacity?”

Pausing for a moment, Mr. Huntsman pursed his lips and said as politely as he could, “Don’t want to even contemplate that.”

For good or for bad, this is Mr. Huntsman’s moment. An early favorite of the pundit classes in Washington and New York — invited for cameos on “The Colbert Report” and “Saturday Night Live” — Mr. Huntsman, out of other options, has bet it all on New Hampshire.

Glimmers of promise appeared for him last week: an endorsement from The Boston Globe, the unveiling of his first television advertisement Friday morning, and the taste of possibility implicit in Rick Santorum’s come-from-behind showing in Iowa against Mitt Romney. But there have also been challenges, including Mr. Romney’s solid lead in polls and new strength from Mr. Santorum and Ron Paul. And he was only a secondary presence at Saturday’s night Republican debate in New Hampshire, barely attacking his rivals.

But nothing has quite threatened his candidacy like his own relatively minuscule campaign bank account, which constrains his ability to carry on even if he does well here in New Hampshire. It is one of the great incongruities of the year: that a race being run by the son of one of the richest men in the world — the chemical magnate Jon M. Huntsman Sr. — could fail because of a lack of money.

Aides predicated the building of Mr. Huntsman’s campaign upon the idea that he would tap his father’s resources and connections to have one of the best-financed operations in the Republican presidential field. But through a complicated father-son dynamic — Mr. Huntsman, 51, a former governor of Utah, has spent much of his life trying to balance the benefits of being a Huntsman against a drive to make a mark on his own — he told advisers and even reporters that he would not accept extensive help.

Still, it is an outside group financed in part by his father that has kept him in the running, putting advertising on television here when he could not afford to. Barring a first- or second-place showing here, Mr. Huntsman will most likely require the sort of quick infusion only his father could offer to carry out the never-say-die plan his aides have hatched for the weeks ahead: to muddle through the next few contests doing just well enough to survive, and then make a bigger stand against Mr. Romney as the rest of the field presumably drops away.

“If he doesn’t prevail, it’s going to be for lack of resources,” said a close supporter, who would speak about Mr. Huntsman’s financial situation only on the condition of anonymity. “And this is from one of the great wealthy families of America.”

Of course, there are other significant factors at play. Analysts, rivals and even some former aides have wondered aloud in interviews whether he was not his own worst liability, unwilling to run the kind of rock-ribbed conservative campaign that his rivals are using to show their toughness against President Obama — who until 10 months ago was his boss.

And in a climate where the loudest, pithiest voices stand out, he is soft-spoken, given to detailed policy lectures about China, the “trust deficit” in Washington, or his calls to limit the size of banks.

From the start, Mr. Huntsman’s father was prepared to press his network of high-flying associates — and underlings — into the service of raising money for the campaign, two people with knowledge of the early operation said.

The family relationship was already complicated. And while the father is a Mormon church elder who strictly adheres to the religion’s tenets against caffeine and alcohol, the junior Mr. Huntsman and his family do not, a choice that especially rankles his mother, family associates say.

Though he lent his campaign some $2 million to help it along, Mr. Huntsman has said publicly that he should be able to raise the necessary money without depending on the family fortune. That stance seemed to signal ambivalence at best about reliance on his father, who had helped start his career by helping him get a low-level job in the Reagan White House.

So without a clear go-ahead from his son, the senior Mr. Huntsman was willing to go only so far to help his campaign, most importantly donating hundreds of thousands of dollars to the Our Destiny “super PAC” — which can accept unlimited contributions but cannot work in coordination with Mr. Huntsman and his campaign — but not the many millions aides believe he would have put in had his son invited it. Campaign filings show that only a smattering of his employees gave to his son.

People familiar with the situation, who would speak about it only on the condition of anonymity, have described a stand-off between two headstrong Huntsmans, one unwilling to help greatly if he is not asked, the other unwilling to ask. That in spite of a lobbying effort by supporters who were said to have even sought to enlist his wife, Mary Kaye. Asked during a campaign stop in North Haverhill on Saturday if she had been approached, Mrs. Huntsman demurred. But she said Mr. Huntsman would not want to “buy an election.”

“He wants to know at the end of the day if he gets to the finish line it’s because the people took him there,” she said, “not his money.”

With no real money to advertise on his own, he has had to campaign door to door, learning hard lessons along the way. After Senator John McCain endorsed Mr. Romney last week, Mr. Huntsman said of his steadfast support for Mr. McCain in 2008, even when times were grimmest, “That was when loyalty trumped politics.”

Mr. Huntsman’s senior strategist, John Weaver, who was a close friend and adviser to Mr. McCain for years, dismissed Mr. McCain’s endorsement of Mr. Romney as “further evidence that the Washington insider class is trying to coalesce around a fairly moderate candidate that they’re comfortable with.”

Then again, Mr. Huntsman and his aides caught a whiff of possibility last week. Our Destiny landed several new donations that it says have allowed it to double its advertising here and start running commercials in South Carolina. They did not come from Mr. Huntsman’s father; while the names are not yet public, one donation came from the Nike co-founder Phil Knight, according to two people familiar with the contribution.

And Mr. Huntsman’s aides were hoping that the Boston Globe endorsement would help among women and independents in New Hampshire and push him into third place — perhaps an optimistic view, given the attention being paid to Mr. Santorum and Mr. Paul as the most prominent alternatives to Mr. Romney.

In a strategy memo for supporters, Mr. Weaver noted that Mr. Huntsman had moved from ninth place months ago to a tie for third in several recent polls. He laid out a possible situation in which Mr. Huntsman exceeds expectations here on Tuesday and then goes on to South Carolina and Florida with enough momentum to eventually emerge as the sole rival to Mr. Romney in the race.

That strategy will require still more money. Mr. Huntsman has dismissed questions about whether he would relent and ask his father for more help fund-raising, saying, “We don’t operate that way.” On Saturday, he added that some people seem to be making assumptions about his family’s wealth: “People forget, we have given everything to humanitarian causes.”

Mr. Huntsman has been circumspect on how well he would have to do to carry on after Tuesday.

“We have to wake up the next morning and say that we exceeded those expectations in order to go forward,” he told reporters. “Otherwise, the marketplace isn’t going to reward us — we won’t raise money; we won’t get volunteers. So, that’s our goal.”

Richard A. Oppel Jr. contributed reporting.

JANUARY – Week #2: “GOP’s sorting process working well”

by Charles Krauthammer

WASHINGTON – After every other conservative alternative to Mitt Romney crashed and burned (libertarian Ron Paul is in a category of his own), from the rubble emerges Rick Santorum. But he isn’t just the last man standing. He is the first challenger to be plausibly presidential: knowledgeable, articulate, experienced, of stable character and authentic ideology.

He’d been ignored largely because he appeared unelectable – out of office for five years, having lost his Senate seat in Pennsylvania by a staggering 17 points in 2006.

However, with his virtual tie for first in Iowa, he sheds the loser label and seizes the momentum, meaning millions of dollars’ worth of free media to make up for his lack of money. He’s got the stage to make his case, plus the luck of a scheduling quirk: If he can make it through the next three harrowing primaries, the (relative) February lull would allow him to build a national campaign structure before Super Tuesday on March 6.

Santorum’s electoral advantage is sociological: His common-man, working-class sensibility would be highly appealing to battleground-state Reagan Democrats. His fundamental problem is ideological: He’s a deeply committed social conservative in a year when the country is obsessed with the economy and when conservatism is obsessed with limited government. Republicans, after all, swept the 2010 election on economic concerns and opposition to big government. The tea party revolution was not about gay marriage. Which is why so much tea party fervor attaches to Paul.

Santorum did win the tea party vote in Iowa. But because he was such a long shot, his record did not receive much scrutiny. It will now. He is no austere limited-government constitutionalist. He participated in George W. Bush’s compassionate conservatism, which largely made peace with big government. Santorum, for example, defends earmarks and supported No Child Left Behind and the Medicare prescription drug benefit. It’s a perfectly defensible philosophy – but now he’ll be called upon to actually defend it.

Moreover, Iowa is anomalous. It’s not just that the Republican electorate is disproportionately evangelical and thus highly receptive to Santorum’s social conservatism (as to Mike Huckabee’s in 2008). It’s that Iowa’s economy is unusually healthy with only 5.7 percent unemployment, high agricultural prices and strong real estate values. Although the economy did rate as a major issue in the entrance poll, in such relative prosperity it registers more as a concern for the nation than as a visceral personal issue – diminishing the impact of Romney’s calling card, economic competence.

For his part, Romney remains preternaturally inert. His numbers, his demeanor, his campaign are flat-line steady: no highs, no lows, no euphoria, no panic.

With one minor exception. Romney wasn’t expected to do very well in Iowa. A top-three finish would have been good; a first or second, a surprising success. But feeling his Iowa prospects rise, he let fly a last-minute high. (Two hairs were seen dangling over his forehead.) He began touting his chance of winning, thus gratuitously raising expectations.

That turned a hairline victory into something of a setback, accentuating his inability to break out of his flat-line 25 or so percent support. How flat? His final 2012 Iowa vote count deviated from his 2008 total of 30,021 by six votes. (Not 6 percent. But a party of six.)

For a front-runner who can’t seem to expand his base, he’s been fortunate that the opposition has been so split. But the luck stops here. Michele Bachmann is gone. Rick Perry will skip New Hampshire, then dead man walk through South Carolina. And then there is Newt.

Gingrich is staying in. This should be good news for Romney. It’s not. In his Iowa non-concession speech, Gingrich was seething. He could not conceal his fury with Paul and Romney for burying him in negative ads. After singling out Santorum for praise, Gingrich launched into them both, most especially Romney.

Gingrich speaks of aligning himself with Santorum against Romney. For Newt’s campaign, this makes absolutely no strategic sense. Except that Gingrich is after vengeance, not victory. Ahab is loose in New Hampshire, stalking his great white Mitt.

What a lineup. Santorum and Gingrich go after Romney, whose unspoken ally is Paul, who needs to fight off Santorum in order to emerge as both No. 1 challenger and Republican kingmaker, leader of a movement demanding respect, attention and concessions. And Jon Huntsman goes after everybody.

Is this any way to pick a president? Absolutely. It works. It winnows. And it has produced, after just one contest, an admirably worthy conservative alternative to Romney.

Charles Krauthammer’s email address is letters@charleskrauthammer.com.

Published in: Uncategorized on January 7, 2012 at4:42 PM Comments (0)

JANUARY – Week #2: “Caucuses filled void of real news”

by Froma Harrop

So Mitt Romney “won” Iowa by eight votes, giving him the “Big Mo” (that’s momentum) as he marches forth into the primaries. What happened to Rick Santorum’s surge? Did a Dodge Caravan full of supporters break down on the way to the gymnasium? I mean, world history has pivoted on less.

About 123,000 people participated in the Iowa Republican caucuses. That’s only 19 percent of the state’s registered Republicans, who make up only 29 percent of Iowa’s 2.1 million registered voters. The Iowa total accounts for less than 2 percent of America’s 137 million registered voters.

Meanwhile, the caucuses are not especially democratic. A primary lets voters arrive at a convenient time and cast a secret ballot. The caucuses require an hour or more in the evening. Participants gather in a meeting space, where they jostle with friends and neighbors over their preferences. Whom they support is everybody’s business.

The caucuses favor those who don’t work evenings, don’t have babies to breast-feed and can drive in the dark or have others who can drive them. They empower the strong-willed and turn off the privacy-minded.

The heavy weight given the caucuses is not the people’s fault, but that of media in need of “news” in the political quiet of the holiday season. They turn what should be an inconsequential and flawed expression of the people’s will into a rocket on which may ride the future leader of what we used to call the free world.

Santorum’s hopes were hardly dashed by Romney’s one-short-of-a-baseball-team margin of victory. He had the good fortune to have been completely written off a few weeks ago, thus helping his performance land in the coveted “better than expected” category.

In such circumstances, one must always ask: better than expected by whom? In this case, it’s the fraction of a fraction of likely caucus-goers who had been polled over the last month. At various points, the surveyed few had rotated their affections among Rick Perry, Newt Gingrich, Herman Cain and Michele Bachmann. Perhaps Santorum entered the final days as the man-of-the-hour because it was he the minute hand was passing on caucus day. “Santorum will now head to the next phase of the campaign with momentum,” reports Politico. Oh-K.

With more journalists dissecting the caucuses than voters for Romney, the commentators deserve commentary. The most potent review of the bunch comes from The New Yorker’s George Packer. He marvels at how political reporters quickly began to regard Santorum’s loony remarks – about Obama “siding with evil” in Iran or engaging in “absolutely un-American activities” – as simply routine rhetoric. At that point, Packer observes, “there isn’t much for the political journalist to do except handicap the race and report on the candidate’s mood.”

And that they did and will continue doing until the 270th electoral vote is counted.

My mood darkened considerably in the run-up to Iowa, as the few plausible Republican candidates felt obliged to disavow every position that I admired. For example, the individual mandate requiring almost everyone to buy health insurance makes supreme sense. The mandate was a necessary piece of Romney’s health care plan for Massachusetts, but the former governor abandoned the concept after it became part of the Democrats’ national version. And why did Gingrich have to renounce that nice ad he made with former Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi promoting a bill to address global warming?

In the sad politics of our day, the consequential gets lost in a series of sideshows. Who turns up in the Iowa dark for the caucuses is all-important, not how representative they are. And what they’re turning up for seems to matter even less.

Froma Harrop is a columnist for Creators Syndicate.

JANUARY – Week #1: “Indecision 2012: In Iowa and the GOP”

By

DES MOINES

Just a few hours before the Iowa caucuses opened, Don Acheson, a general contractor from West Des Moines, remained as he had been for months: wracked by indecision.

First, he had been for Rick Perry, then Newt Gingrich. When I caught up with him, he was preparing to give Rick Santorum a hard look, but Mitt Romney was “not far behind” in Acheson’s esteem.

“This late in the game I’ve never been undecided before,” he lamented. “A lot of people are going to walk into the caucus and say, ‘I’m not sure’ and just pick one. This probably is the most bizarre caucus I’ve been to.”

His drift is typical, and revealing. In a Des Moines Register poll published three days before the vote, fully 49 percent of likely Republican caucus-goers said they had not firmly made up their minds. This is what caused the extraordinary volatility in the polls and a parade of seven different front-runners, culminating in Tuesday’s virtual tie between Santorum and Romney, with Ron Paul just behind them.

Much of the political world has come to regard Iowans as a bit flaky. The prospect that the indecisiveness could allow a gadfly such as Paul to win prompted many commentators to write Iowa obituaries: It could “do irreparable harm” (Politico), “discredit the Iowa caucuses” (Fox’s Chris Wallace) and perhaps bring about “the demise of Iowa” (handicapper Stuart Rothenberg).

I disagree: The Iowa Republicans’ indecision captures perfectly the existential struggle within the GOP nationally and within conservatism. They don’t know what they want — or even who they are. Are they Tea Partyers? Isolationists? Pro-business? Populists? Moralists? Worried workers? Do they want the corporate caretaker (Romney), the oddball isolationist (Paul) or the cultural warrior (Santorum)?

Tuesday night’s returns indicated that Iowans never did make up their mind, as the three men carved up the vote almost evenly. A poll of voters entering the caucuses found that nearly one in five said they hadn’t chosen a candidate until Tuesday.

In their internal conflicts, Iowans fulfilled perfectly their first-in-the-nation status, by faithfully acting out the Republican fissures. “The jumble at the top is very reflective of the Republican Party nationally,” argued David Yepsen, the longtime Register political writer now with Southern Illinois University. “It’s activists here reflecting activists all over the country: Who are we? What are we for?”

“This is a fight for the soul of the party,” former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Steele told me this week.

The final events before the caucuses convened neatly demonstrated this. Romney, suffering from chronic awkwardness known as Al Gore’s disease, took the stage in jeans and penny loafers, with a phalanx of lawmakers behind him to show support. He spoke as if lecturing (“output per person is the highest in the world”), which induced audience members — even the officeholders onstage — to scan their smartphones.

To affect passion, Romney read a few lines from “America the Beautiful.” To affect jocularity, he said his kids refer to his wife as “The Mitt Stabilizer.” This produced laughter — from members of the press corps, who couldn’t picture Romney requiring extra stability.

Like their candidate, Romney supporters are a pragmatic if uninspired bunch. There were only about 100 of them on hand for the final rally in Des Moines, leaving many seats empty at the event’s start time. Those who applauded their man did so for a grand total of six seconds. The one passionate Romney supporter I found (“I love Mitt!”) was a London School of Economics student who admired Romney’s electability.

The Paul supporters, by contrast, were all heart. Not allowed inside to see the candidate’s final speech (to a group of students), they stood in the cold for hours, waving signs and waiting for a glimpse of their man. They shouted: “We love you, Ron!” And: “Forty-fifth president!” When Santorum left the same event, they heckled him.

“I took the day off work for this,” said insurance salesman Justin Yourison, a Paul precinct captain. “If he doesn’t get the nomination, I’m not voting for anyone else. . . . If the GOP doesn’t let us in, they can do without us.”

If the Romney supporters were cerebral and the Paul supporters passionate, the Santorum supporters didn’t know quite what they were. At one of Santorum’s final appearances, he buttonholed one undecided voter, Sue Koch, and asked her, repeatedly, to caucus for him. She finally told him she would.

When the candidate walked away, Koch gave a shrug. “I had to say something,” she said.

Published in: 2012 Election, A Challenge, A MUST READ, Opinion, Political Parties, Politics, Polls on January 4, 2012 at9:26 PM Comments (16)

JANUARY – Week #1: “Marco Rubio has what Mitt Romney needs in a vice president”

By

The great thing about Iowa is that, no matter whom the voters select in their neighborhood huddles, it doesn’t really matter. Placing in Iowa might land one a talk show (see Mike Huckabee), but the preferences of a handful of Americans belonging to a committed, ideological subset of a committed, ideological party do not a national trend suggest. The presumptive candidate proceeds apace.

Which raises the question none too soon: Whom will Mitt Romney select as his running mate?

Several names have been suggested, including Condoleezza Rice and Sen. Rob Portman of Ohio. Rice’s interest isn’t clear, and Portman, despite his personal qualities and swing-state bona fides, would merely add a snooze button to Romney’s campaign.

Latest to the list is the young and junior senator from Florida, Marco Rubio. His political résuméincludes: nine years as a state legislator, including two as speaker of the Florida House; enormous popularity with Tea Partyers who sent him to the U.S. Senate over Republican Gov. Charlie Crist; a Cuban heritage and, thus, his presumed appeal to Hispanic voters; he’s young at just 40 and, it never hurts, attractive.

Add to the above the fact that Florida is a crucial swing state, the population of which is 22.5 percent Hispanic.

No one is ever perfect, of course, and Rubio critics will cite his chronologically challenged rendition of his parents’ exile from Cuba. Rubio claimed that they were driven out by Fidel Castro when, in fact, they left Cuba before Castro took over the island nation. Rubio later explained that the date, though incorrect, didn’t diminish the family’s experience of exile when, upon Castro’s rise to power, they didn’t feel they could return to Cuba.

For Cubans who had to leave their homeland with empty pockets and broken hearts, their homes ravaged and their belongings confiscated by revolutionary rebels, Rubio’s exaggeration no doubt stung. But was it fatal? Not likely. It is possible to imagine that Rubio, who grew up in south Florida, where Spanish is a first language and displacement is the Cuban community’s core identity, can be understood to have embraced the larger cultural narrative as his own. As he wrote in Politico, “I am the son of exiles. I inherited two generations of unfulfilled dreams. This is a story that needs no embellishing.”

Rubio will survive the controversy.

Of perhaps greater value to Democrats is Rubio’s attractiveness to Tea Partyers. Thanks to media portraits of Tea Party members as tantrum-throwing ignoramuses with racist tendencies, the argument would be that Rubio can’t appeal to a broader spectrum of voters. This argument has some merit, but only if you haven’t heard Rubio speak or paid attention to his message. Rubio isn’t just a poster boy for the shrink-government contingent. Much like President Obama, he’s a monument to the American Dream. Like Obama, he speaks often about the privilege of being an American and of possessing a birthright that allows the son of a bartender and a maid to become a U.S. senator. Only in America.

But unlike Obama, Rubio condemns rhetoric that seeks to divide the American people against each other. He shuns the idea that some are worse off because others are doing better. In a year-end address to the Senate about his first year in office (http://bit.ly/vWN5L5), Rubio articulated a conservative road map that is equal parts tough love and compassion and that combines the conservatism of Ronald Reagan with the conciliatory charm of Bill Clinton. He is a human composite of sunny optimism and urgent realism. If it wasn’t a stump speech, it should be.

Saying we’re not a nation of haves and have-nots, but a nation of haves and soon-to-haves, Rubio pointed out three obstacles to prosperity: a “crazy” tax code; complicated regulations that kill small businesses; and a national debt that exceeds the economy.

Obama inherited a bad economy, Rubio conceded, but, mathematically speaking, the country now is in worse shape with higher debt, unemployment and poverty. Rubio said that clearing these obstacles and creating a realistic plan to reduce the debt and deficit would lead to greater prosperity, which would lead to more jobs, which would mean more taxpayers and therefore more revenue for, among other things, Medicare funding and infrastructure repairs.

You won’t find a Republican who doesn’t agree with this assessment, but you also won’t find any who can deliver the argument with greater passion or less-divisive rhetoric. This is the Rubio that Democrats should fear, and to whom Romney no doubt is well attuned.

kathleenparker@washpost.com

JANUARY – Week #1: “Prepare to Be Surprised By Iowa Caucus Results”

By Joe  Trippi

Published January 03, 2012 | FoxNews.com

What should we expect from the results in Iowa tonight? I would prepare to be surprised.

In 1984 I ran the state for Vice President Walter Mondale’s campaign. We won with 49% of the vote. The surprise was that a Senator from Colorado, Gary Hart, took second with 19% of the vote. Iowa had introduced the country to someone new and we in the Mondale campaign were caught in the political fight of our lives just to get the nomination.

Four years later I was working for Congressman Dick Gephardt’s Presidential Campaign. Three weeks before the caucuses the vaunted Des Moines Register Poll had us in last place. On caucus night we were the surprise that year – coming from last in the pack to surge to the lead and win the state.

Oh yes, and I have experienced the worst of the Iowa surprise too.

In 2004 I was running Howard Dean’s campaign for President when we had a strong lead in Iowa with just a month to go to caucus night. Winning Iowa would have sent us on our way to the nomination. The surprise that caucus night? We took third.

My experience in Iowa may hail from the Democratic side of the aisle, but Iowa doesn’t play favorites. Republicans can be surprised on caucus night too. Here are some things I am looking for tonight that will indicate if that’s going to happen:

Watch Dubuque: The county in the northeast corner of the state is heavily Catholic and an area Romney scored well in four years ago. If Rick Santorum isn’t winning here it means the Santorum surge isn’t real or isn’t big enough to matter. The state is 23% Catholic – if Santorum, a pro-life Catholic himself, consolidates the Catholic vote in Dubuque and elsewhere the Iowa surprise could be a Santorum win.

Turnout: The higher the turnout the more like it is that Ron Paul wins the state. Ron Paul pulls in college students as well as Democratic and Independent and voters who do not typically vote in GOP caucuses. If they show up, turnout will be unusually high and the surprise could be the GOP suddenly having to deal with a libertarian uprising in their party.

Settling for Romney: Iowa, after all the ups and downs of the year, could “settle for Romney” with voters worried about defeating Obama they could make their decision on electability like the experience I had with Mondale.  – But even in this scenario (as I learned with Fritz) the surprise will be who took second.

Call it the curse of the frontrunner, but Romney is supposed to win, so the story coming out of Iowa if he does win might be on the unexpected second place finisher emerging as the “other candidate.”

Two things that I think are important:

One, I think the GOP field is extremely weak – with Romney being among the weakest frontrunners in either party in recent history. It makes predicting the outcome and who the surprise will be very difficult.

Republicans won’t like me saying this – but one of the great things about democracy is that even in a weak field someone gets to win tonight. That presents a real opportunity for candidates who have been overlooked or discounted on the national stage – Santorum, Paul and maybe even Perry – to establish themselves when it matters most.

Lastly the one thing that is important to remember – there is a reason the Iowa surprise matters. Most pundits have been watching in detail for the last year or so – the rest of the world has not.

Most Americans will only start to focus on the Republican field tonight. That’s what makes Iowa and tonight so important.

Tonight, Iowa is going to introduce two or three potential GOP nominees to the country. The surprise will get the most attention – and that will have a huge impact on GOP nomination fight, especially in a year where a condensed primary schedule means that the next battle is only a week away in New Hampshire and South Carolina eleven days after that.

Joe Trippi is a Fox News contributor and political strategist who worked for Ted Kennedy, Walter Mondale and Gary Hart and turned Howard Dean into an unlikely front runner in 2004. For more visit JoeTrippi.com.

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2012/01/03/prepare-to-be-surprised-by-iowa-caucus-results/print#ixzz1iRKXfCi7

JANUARY – Week #1: “Isolationism redux via Ron Paul”

By

The blogger Andrew Sullivan, typing faster than he could think, endorsed Ron Paul for the Republican presidential nomination. (He took it back, but we’ll get to that later.) Sullivan is British-born, Oxford-taught and, like so many from that sceptered isle, gifted in print and speech. Still, he somehow did not realize that if someone like Paul had been president in the 1940s, his homeland might have succumbed to Nazi Germany while America, maddeningly isolationist, sat out the war. No doubt, curriculum changes would have been made at Oxford.

Paul opposes just about all international treaties and organizations. He would have the United States pull out of the United Nations and NATO. He would do away with foreign aid, abolish the CIA and essentially turn his back on the rest of the world. This is pretty much what used to be called isolationism, and it allowed Hitler to presume, quite correctly as it turned out, that America would not interfere with his plans to conquer Europe, Britain included. It took Germany’s declaration of war on the United States, not the other way round, to get Uncle Sam involved.

The isolationism of the 1930s and early ’40s has come roaring back — in the person of Paul, I am tempted to write, but that is not exactly the case. The old isolationism was deeply conservative, both socially and economically, and its leaders — Sen. William Borah, R-Idaho, for instance — would never have advocated the decriminalization of recreational drugs. Paul does because he is a libertarian. It is this ideology coupled with his staunch antiwar pose that attracts so many young people and, when you take another look, some not so young people as well. Sullivan is/was one of them, but others on both the left and the right have praised Paul on this score, as if his antiwar position can be extracted from his general nuttiness to make a rational candidate. No such luck.

Now some of these people — notably Sullivan — have backed off. Paul’s old newsletters have (once again) surfaced, and their smarmy racism is downright repellent. Paul said he did not write the stuff, and maybe that’s the case. But there’s more than one noxious newsletter, and his name is on them all. Either he never read his stuff, or he did and didn’t wince, or he had people working for him who thought a little racism would please the boss. None of those explanations flatter him.

Just as troubling, though, is what was known about Paul all along — and that is a foreign policy, if it can be called that, drained of morality. His total indifference to what happens overseas is chilling and reminiscent of the old isolationism, best articulated in Des Moines — a world capital this election season — by Charles Lindbergh back in 1941. In that speech, Lindbergh identified three groups that wanted to take America to war against Germany: the Brits, the Jews and the Roosevelt administration. They all had their reasons, he acknowledged, but, “We cannot allow the natural passions and prejudices of other peoples to lead our country to destruction.” I can almost hear these very words coming out of the mouth of Paul.

America is weary of war, especially weary of those, in retrospect, that had no real purpose — the one in Iraq, above all. The country is weary as well of politicians, most of them conservatives, who will not even debate the worth of such wars. (Not a single question about whether the Iraq war was worth nearly 4,500 American lives in the last GOP debate — and the debate was held the very day the last of the troops left that country.)

Yet America remains a mighty nation, capable of doing good in the world. That’s far different than expanding an empire or making the world safe for McDonald’s. The intervention in Libya, a NATO operation but an American enterprise, succeeded. So did the ones in Bosnia and Kosovo. The Libyan bombings will not bring democracy to that country, but they knocked out Moammar Gaddafi, and that ain’t a bad day’s work.

Paul opposed that as he would oppose all military interventions — as he would have opposed the Civil Rights Act, he has said. He cannot for the life of him summon government’s authority or military might to have the right thing done. Still, the man himself is immaterial. His message, though, is a different matter. It has struck a chord, and others, more polished and with better-fitting shirts, will pick it up. Lucky Lindy flies again.

cohenr@washpost.com

JANUARY – Week #1: “Rick Santorum’s curious closing argument”

By

POLK CITY, Iowa — Nothing fires up a crowd like cloture.

Rick Santorum, the man who has improbably become a contender in Tuesday’s Iowa caucuses, was making his closing argument to a sea of TV cameras here on Monday when he swerved into a thicket of Senate trivia.

“I’m not disagreeing with the 17th Amendment,” the former senator from Pennsylvania proclaimed to journalists (and a few locals) at a coffee shop here. But, he went on, that obscure 1913 provision that established the direct election of senators had the side effect of creating “something called cloture.”

All was quiet in the coffee shop. At the senator’s side, a child played with his Game Boy.

It’s not clear why Santorum thought his final pitch to Iowa voters should include a mention of century-old legislative procedure. More clear from the Polk City appearance — and a subsequent one up the road in Perry, Iowa — is that he won’t last long as a top-tier presidential candidate if he doesn’t improve his game.

The “Santorum surge” in recent days has little to do with the candidate himself and everything to do with the fact that he is the last man standing after voters discarded all the rest. There’s little time left to scrutinize Santorum before the Iowa vote — and in his case, that’s an exceedingly lucky thing. Given more time in the spotlight, he would reveal himself as a hard-edged Dan Quayle.

In Perry, Santorum gave his opinion that President Obama was more of a divisive figure than Richard Nixon, keeper of the enemies list: “I suspect President Nixon, although I don’t know, would talk and work with people and wouldn’t go out and demonize them as this president has done.” Santorum doesn’t know it, but that doesn’t stop him from asserting it.

At the same stop, he played loose with the facts when contrasting Ronald Reagan’s vacation schedule with Obama’s.

“I don’t know if it’s true, but somebody told me this,” he began, “that Ronald Reagan never left the White House at Christmas, and the reason was he wanted all the staff to be able to spend that time at home.”

A check of the record would have revealed to Santorum that in 1988, Reagan was in Los Angeles during Christmas, and that he spent the week after nearly every Christmas (and more than a year of his presidency) in Santa Barbara, Calif.

I’ve covered Santorum on and off since his first run for Congress, in 1990, when I was a rookie reporter in Pittsburgh. Months ago, I predicted there would be such a Santorum surge in Iowa. But if and when he receives serious scrutiny, the surge will surely subside.

On Monday, for example, he claimed that he is the only candidate who “has proof that, with a conservative record, they were able to attract independents and Democrats.” And that is why Pennsylvania voters unceremoniously tossed him from office in 2006 by a nearly 18-point margin? A n Iowan reminded him of this.

“Great question,” the candidate replied, blaming his GOP congressional colleagues and President George W. Bush’s unpopularity.

Talking about Obama’s health-care legislation, he pledged that “I simply won’t enforce the law.” But discussing immigration policy minutes later, he said that “we need to enforce the law.”

If the surge sustains him past Iowa, he will have difficulty explaining such things as his pledge to make abortion restrictions his first order of business (never mind that nonsense about jobs) or the treason accusation he hurled at Obama on Monday: In foreign conflicts, he said, “he’s sided with our enemies on almost every single one.”

Scrutiny would also expose Santorum’s attachment to Washington process. His closing argument to Iowa voters moved from his cloture talk to mention of the Senate Appropriations Committee, earmarks, the House Judiciary Committee, the Syrian Accountability Act and a long discourse on Honduras. He grew particularly impassioned when telling his uncomprehending listeners that “we can take the 9th Circuit and divide it into two circuits.”

Santorum is clearly enjoying his surge, boasting that, while other campaigns had an “airplane, bus, cars, etcetera,” he simply had “Chuck’s truck” — a Dodge pickup. Now there is a shiny campaign bus with his name on it.

At Santorum’s first stop, in Polk City, the coffee shop’s maximum occupancy was listed as 49, but at least 200 filled the room and 100 more spilled into the street. In the media throng were journalists from Japan, Russia, France, Britain, Italy and Australia. “They weren’t here last week,” a pleased Santorum told the crowd.

Enjoy it, Senator. They won’t be here for long.

JANUARY – Week #1: “Over Phones and Greasy Pizza, a Battle for Iowa”

By and

DES MOINES — A few days before the Iowa caucuses, Newt Gingrich’s campaign headquarters just outside the city is a spectacle of pre-computer-age disorder, with volunteers rushing voter updates across the room on yellow Post-it notes.

At the offices of Mitt Romney, who has built a ground organization aimed at matching the intensity of his television advertising barrage, aides are methodically analyzing data on each voter to create the perfect pitch: those worried about illegal immigration, for example, are invited to join a conference call with a border county sheriff in Arizona.

At Rick Santorum’s offices, two of his college-age children, urgently aware that their father’s presidential ambitions could end here, are offering potential voters a homespun message of family values. “What can I tell you about my father?” their calls begin.

And at the Michele Bachmann operation, lofty aspirations are rapidly fading into a dispiriting reality: the bells that campaign workers are supposed to sound with every new recruit rarely chime.

Far from the spotlight of their candidates’ events, hundreds of staff members and volunteers are scrambling for an edge in a fierce final effort to tilt the outcome of a contest that has been shifting almost by the day.

Beyond the speeches and television commercials, this unglamorous ground war is unfolding with hidden intensity inside forlorn office parks, under pale fluorescent lights and amid grease-stained pizza boxes.

Yet in the closing hours, it is the tedious and time-consuming work of identifying voters and persuading them to show up at Tuesday night’s caucuses, the first contest of the 2012 primary race, that could make the difference among Republicans who cannot seem to make up their minds.

As the days dwindle and the pressure rises, these behind-the-scenes deliberations and strategies offer telling insights about the state of the race, the strength of the campaigns and the personality of the candidates.

There is the quirky insularity of Ron Paul supporters, skittish in their bow ties and fleece jackets, content to keep opponents guessing as to whether they should be feared or ignored.

There is the triple-checked orderliness of the Romney campaign and the good-humored chaos of the Gingrich operation. Though the onetime front-runner Rick Perry flaunts his deep pockets on the airwaves here, perhaps a more revealing assessment of his status can be found written on the walls at Gingrich headquarters, where Mr. Perry is the only one of six candidates reduced to a humbling shorthand: “Other.”

And while the lights were off and the doors locked at the Bachmann headquarters the other night, there was a renewed sense of possibility at Mr. Santorum’s office, up and running past midnight, where staff members have been dismissing the once pervasive questions about electability with increasing confidence.

“I don’t know if you saw the poll that came out tonight?” one Santorum worker said to a voter.

In a big, sparsely populated state, where knocking on doors is impractical, the crucial tool of campaigning is the trusty telephone. Every evening, campaigns are following the time-tested method of packing volunteers into their headquarters to place as many phone calls as possible.

The energy level in these rooms, however, varies considerably.

Inside Mrs. Bachmann’s office near Des Moines, a political adviser laid out an ambitious plan for the final week. The campaign would tap an army of supporters to call 25,000 undecided Iowa voters who could make the difference between a respectable or an embarrassing finish.

On this night, it was off to a rocky start.

There were only three volunteers working the phones. One struggled with her computer, then took an hourlong dinner break. Another dialed a Bachmann donor, who promptly told her he was no longer interested in the candidate.

“He’s been watching her the entire time, but just thinks that Gingrich will make a better president,” she explained to her fellow volunteers. “I am not going to argue with people.”

During nearly an hour of technological troubles and busy signals, the reception bells placed on every desk to provide an audible record of progress rang just once.

Over at Mr. Santorum’s office, volunteers targeting many of the same religious voters as Mrs. Bachmann routinely reach 200 people a day each using a high-tech phone system that automatically dialed calls, classified responses and displayed a script for volunteers to read: “Would you be interested in helping Rick Santorum in Iowa?”

At the nearby Gingrich headquarters, it was not energy that was lacking so much as time. The new office’s staff swelled visibly over the final week as the revived campaign tried to catch up. On Wednesday night, the volunteers were told that the number of calls placed had jumped from 300 on Monday to 3,000 on Wednesday.

The case for Mr. Gingrich mostly came from out-of-towners who had flown in from Washington, Virginia and Florida. One woman from Georgia, Sharon Cooper, began each conversation with an unmistakable drawl: “I was his state representative.”

Some committed instantly; more hung up. One woman advised that her husband had died and would not be voting. Another lamented that the race had no “old-fashioned Republican.” And after a few minutes of arm-twisting, an undecided voter requested a Gingrich lawn sign because, he told the volunteer, “you’re a nice guy and you’re a human being, not a robot.”

An elderly man said he was a longtime supporter of Mr. Gingrich but hedged when asked if he planned to take part in a caucus. “It probably depends a lot on the weather,” he said.

The practiced response was swift: “What would it take to get you out if the weather is bad?”

“If someone comes to get us,” the man responded.

“Well, we’ll definitely send someone to pick you up and drive you to the caucus.”

The weather forecast for Tuesday: partly cloudy with a high of 35 degrees.

Caution

Every candidate for the Republican nomination has campaigned at Pizza Ranch, a beloved restaurant chain in Iowa with strong ties to the Christian right.

Every candidate except Mr. Romney. His campaign prides itself on a vigilance and meticulousness bordering on the obsessive. So before Mr. Romney appears at a campaign stop or accepts an endorsement, his staff conducts sometimes painstaking vetting to avoid potentially embarrassing disclosures.

A founder of Pizza Ranch, it turned out, spent time in prison on charges of sexually abusing male employees. “There is not a lot of room for mistakes,” said David Kochel, Mr. Romney’s top strategist in Iowa.

While Mr. Romney has been caricatured for his cautious style, Mr. Paul — and his devoted supporters — have been known for dispensing with convention.

But as Mr. Paul’s recent poll numbers have raised the once unthinkable prospect of an impressive showing in Iowa, his campaign has suddenly taken on a defensive posture.

At his campaign rallies, supporters and staff members, who once complained about being ignored by the news media, now declare that they are prohibited from talking to the press, muttering about “operationally sensitive” campaign work. “I can’t talk to you,” one of them said over his shoulder, after a group of Paul volunteers scattered at the sight of a journalist the other night.

Poll numbers capture the attention of the public. But among political staff members here a single metric is prized above all else: the number of people recruited to deliver the candidate’s impassioned final arguments to voters on caucus night.

The wide gap between the figures for Mr. Gingrich and Mr. Santorum say much about their organizations in Iowa, which has more than 1,700 precincts.

As of midweek, Mr. Santorum, who traipsed to even the most rural of Iowa’s 99 counties over many months, had secured speakers in 1,000 of the precincts. Mr. Gingrich, who opened an office here only a few weeks ago, had nailed down about only 200.

Though that number had doubled by the end of the next day, Mr. Gingrich’s own aides acknowledged that the shortage of speakers could be a problem. “Iowans have a deep belief in organization,” said April Linder, a staff member, “and when you don’t have a speaker, it shows a lack of organization.”

The aide responsible for recruiting caucus speakers for Mr. Perry in Des Moines said he had tried to stay upbeat even as his candidate’s popularity lurched up and down.

“You have to stay very enthusiastic,” said the aide, Rob Anderson. “You’re selling a candidate, and you’re never going to sell a candidate if you’re down in the dumps.”

After Mr. Perry gave a speech at a local restaurant, Mr. Anderson worked to slow the tide of exiting guests. Most hurried by, but enough signed up to speak on behalf of Mr. Perry that he ran out of the extra large T-shirts that he was giving them to wear on caucus night.

The next day, the volunteers who signed up streamed in to the Perry headquarters, including Mary Secress, a retired administrative assistant. She said she had never made a speech but was not worried about what to say.

“They’ve got everything written down for us,” she said.

Sticking to the Plan

The speeches provided by the campaigns to their supporters for caucus night leave virtually nothing to chance. Even the opening greetings are scripted. “What a great day to be an Iowan!” begins a speech provided to Romney backers.

It is not hard to match the scripts with the candidates they are intended to help. The tone, complexity and even length are often familiar.

Written in punchy bullet points, the Perry campaign speech describes him as “the son of tenant farmers” and “America’s most pro-life governor.”

The Romney speech, thick with dense prose, calls him “the toughest opponent” for President Obama who would “never do anything as president that would embarrass the office, or the country.”

The script about Mr. Santorum, sounding at times like a sermon, quotes Glenn Beck and Rush Limbaugh and calls Mr. Santorum “the Tea Party candidate before there was a Tea Party.”

There are striking, almost comical similarities as well. Mr. Perry is a “conservative outsider.” Mr. Romney is a “conservative businessman.” And Mr. Santorum is a “conservative warrior.”

Packing the Airwaves

The frenzy of activity is aimed at a self-selected, relatively small number of caucusgoers. For all their political import, the Iowa caucuses, for many, are a time-consuming hassle. As opposed to the quick pull of a lever at a polling station, upwards of an hour of the participants’ evening must be devoted to a spirited public debate in a gymnasium, restaurant or living room.

No wonder that in a state with a population of three million, fewer than 120,000 Republicans participated in 2008 — just 4 percent.

This campaign season, the already stiff competition for these hardy few participants has intensified because the Republican Party abandoned its winner-take-all system, meaning that even losing candidates can win delegates.

So undecided caucusgoers are being bombarded. The Santorum campaign, for example, contacts each undecided voter it has identified at least six times. As soon as a new flier arrives in the mail, the campaign calls to ask if the recipient was swayed.

“Every single one of them has given me a phone call more than once, and I’m really not a fan of Michele Bachmann constantly e-mailing me,” said Aimee Davis, a stay-at- home mother. “I’m almost tempted to go back to being an independent just to stop getting calls.”

The campaigns pursue Iowans of every conceivable niche. To court female voters in the state, the Romney campaign invited thousands of them to listen in by phone as Mr. Romney’s wife, Ann, recounted her loving marriage and family life.

Active party members draw even more attention. The crowd shuffling into a meeting of the Polk County Republican Committee found each chair littered with a stack of fliers promoting Mr. Paul or Mr. Gingrich. A representative from each campaign briefly addressed the crowd. “I’d expect all the campaigns that are serious about running in Iowa to have a representative here,” said David Fischer, the state co-chairman for Mr. Paul.

While in this state the premium has always been on the shaken hand and patted back, there are of course the more traditional — and just as intrusive — staples of a modern campaign.

The airwaves are packed with a night-and-day loop of television advertisements (Mr. Perry has spent the most, $2.2 million), and candidates are doing the obligatory digital outreach (Mr. Romney leads on Facebook, and Mr. Gingrich on Twitter).

But the indecision among those who intend to vote can be exasperating for the campaigns.

Consider Polly Carver-Kimm, 48, who walked out of a breakfast meeting of local Republicans the other day with lawn signs for two different candidates, Mr. Gingrich and Mr. Perry. “We’re going to put them both in our yard until we decide,” said Ms. Carver-Kimm, who works as a spokeswoman for the state health department. “Then we’ll take one down.”

The Final Push

Located on a main retail drag in Des Moines, Mr. Romney’s headquarters is bright, big and glassy. The others, in the more Republican suburbs, require a drive of 15 minutes or longer to drab buildings in strip malls and office parks.

But they all stand out for their improvised, personal touches. A whiteboard on the wall at the Perry campaign celebrated a dated victory: “Cain Train 2012,” and underneath, “derailed.” Michele Bachmann’s husband, Marcus, has hung a hand-written poster proclaiming his love for his wife. The lobby of Mr. Santorum’s headquarters features a Christmas tree and a crèche.

It is in these rooms that campaign workers endure the punishing, round-the-clock rhythms of this final push. There have been family dinners missed, dates canceled and, in the case of a top Gingrich aide at the office past midnight, a lot of explaining to his wife, who had given birth a week earlier.

But their eyes are always on the vote.

At the Gingrich headquarters last week, a staff member arrived with a painful broken tooth. One of the volunteers making phone calls dialed his family dentist to get the staff member an emergency visit.

And as the volunteer was about to hang up, he paused. “By the way,” he asked the dentist, “Who are you supporting?”

JANUARY – Week #1: “Group’s Ads Rip at Gingrich as Romney Stands Clear”

By and

DES MOINES — The attacks began three weeks ago and have not let up since: Television ad after television ad slamming Newt Gingrich for having “more baggage than the airlines,” for being fined by Congress for ethics violations, for his position on illegal immigration, even for admitting that he has made mistakes on the campaign trail.

Democrats and Republicans alike have singled out the $2.8 million-and-counting air deluge as the biggest factor in Mr. Gingrich’s precipitous drop in polls of Iowa voters and Mitt Romney’s corresponding rise, reshaping the critical first contest of the Republican primary season to Mr. Romney’s benefit.

The ads, which continue to blanket Iowa days before the caucuses here, were created and paid for by people with deep knowledge of the Romney campaign’s strategic thinking, close relationships with Mr. Romney’s most generous donors, and even research on what television viewers like and dislike most about Mr. Romney himself.

Yet neither Mr. Romney nor his staff has had to lift a finger or spend a dollar to make it happen. In a stark illustration of how last year’s landmark Supreme Court ruling on campaign finance has created powerful new channels for outside money to influence elections, the negative onslaught is the work of a group called Restore Our Future.

The most prominent of the “super PACs,” which can accept unlimited donations for purposes of supporting or attacking candidates, it operates independently of the Romney campaign but under the direction of former Romney aides who do not need to be told what the candidate needs.

They include Carl Forti, the political director of Mr. Romney’s 2008 campaign; Charles R. Spies, Mr. Romney’s former chief counsel; and Larry McCarthy, an alumnus of Mr. Romney’s media team who was known for producing some of the more compelling positive spots for Mr. Romney four years ago, but has nonetheless earned a reputation as one of the most fearsome political ad makers in the country — he produced the Willie Horton commercial that devastated Michael S. Dukakis’s presidential campaign in 1988.

Restore Our Future’s fund-raiser, Steve Roche, led the Romney campaign’s own finance team until this summer. He now spends his days meeting with the New York hedge fund managers, Utah businessmen and Boston financiers who have contributed almost $30 million to the group this year, according to people with knowledge of the group’s fund-raising. Among the donors are some conservatives who have a long history of backing attack-oriented outside groups like Swift Boat Veterans for Truth, which in 2004 went aggressively after Senator John Kerry, the Democratic presidential nominee that year.

The result: Mr. Romney has effectively outsourced his negative advertising to a group that has raised millions of dollars from his donors to inundate his opponents with attacks — all without breaking the rules that forbid super PACs to explicitly coordinate with candidates. Polls showed Mr. Gingrich’s support in Iowa tumbling immediately after the Restore Our Future ads began running in early December. An NBC News/Marist poll released Friday showed a 19 percentage point increase over the last month, to 35 percent, in the number of likely Republican caucusgoers who said they judged Mr. Gingrich to be unacceptable as the party’s nominee.

“Restore Our Future has been very important,” said Mel Sembler, a top Republican donor and a member of Mr. Romney’s Florida finance team. “They’ve had an impact, there’s no question about it.”

The battle in Iowa has underscored what advocates for tighter campaign finance restraints have warned for months: that the new groups will be deployed to devastating effect, in the primary season and then in the general election.

“Iowa is ground zero of what we can expect in every competitive state for the rest of the presidential election,” said Ellen S. Miller, executive director of the Sunlight Foundation, which tracks outside money in politics.

Since they began advertising in earnest several weeks ago, groups like Restore Our Future have spent millions of dollars in the early primary states, rivaling and in some cases surpassing the spending of the candidates they support. While the candidates can raise just $2,500 from each individual donor for the primary, super PACs, thanks to the Supreme Court’s Citizens United decision, face no such restrictions.

Speaking on Fox News last week, Mr. Romney played down the significance of Restore Our Future’s advertisements against Mr. Gingrich, arguing that Mr. Gingrich was falling in polls as voters focused on his record. Mr. Gingrich has also been under intense assault from other groups, including Ron Paul’s campaign; Mr. Romney’s campaign itself called attention to Mr. Gingrich’s tumultuous departure from Congress in a mailing it sent to Iowa voters.

But one thing is clear: Restore Our Future has spent more on advertisements in Iowa and elsewhere than any other super PAC, according to tracking by NBC and Smart Media Group Delta. The group has already begun buying television time in two other Republican primary states, Florida and South Carolina, running ads that hammer Mr. Gingrich and Gov. Rick Perry of Texas.

A super PAC supporting Mr. Gingrich, Winning Our Future, has spent just $263,000 on advertising in Iowa, according to figures from NBC and Smart Media Group Delta, without explicitly attacking Mr. Romney. (Another pro-Gingrich group, Strong America Now, has attacked Mr. Romney in mailings to voters.) Restore Our Future has spent twice as much money in the state as Mr. Romney has, most of it on advertisements savaging his opponents. Meanwhile, Mr. Romney’s campaign has run only positive television ads, featuring sunny portrayals of him and his family, with the occasional jab at President Obama.

That has helped Mr. Romney avoid the classic conundrum of political attack advertising in a nominating battle: Negative commercials tend to harm both the candidate making the claim and the one on the receiving end. One aide said Mr. Romney has apparently suffered “no collateral” damage from Restore Our Future’s negative advertisements against Mr. Gingrich, which are not identifiably connected to Mr. Romney.

In recent days, Mr. Romney has tried to distance himself from the group. “We really ought to let campaigns raise the money they need and just get rid of these super PACs,” Mr. Romney said on MSNBC.

But in July, Mr. Romney appeared before dozens of potential donors to Restore Our Future at an organizational meeting, effectively blessing its work.

Should Mr. Romney win his party’s nomination, the group is poised to play as pivotal a role in a general election matchup against Mr. Obama, whose aides are keeping a close watch on it. (Former Obama aides have also formed a super PAC, Priorities USA Action.)

Restore Our Future will not be required to disclose its most recent donors until the end of January. But in disclosures filed this summer, the group reported $12 million in contributions, much of it from friends and past business associates of Mr. Romney.

Edward Conard, who gave a million dollars to Restore Our Future, is a former top executive at Bain Capital, the private equity firm Mr. Romney helped start. Another donor is J. W. Marriott Jr., chairman of the hotel chain, on whose board Mr. Romney served on until January. The group has also raised money from Sam Fox and Bob Perry, conservative businessmen who helped finance Swift Boat Veterans for Truth.

The group’s backers appeared to be briefly spooked when word circulated that Sheldon Adelson, a wealthy casino magnate who is close to Mr. Gingrich, had committed $20 million to a super PAC supporting him. One of Restore Our Future’s donors called Mr. Sembler in a panic, he said, and asked him to call Mr. Adelson — the two men are friends — to find out if it was true.

“I did call Sheldon,” Mr. Sembler said. “And he said, ‘I’m not only not giving $20 million, I haven’t given any money at all.’ ”

DECEMBER – Week #4: “GOP waging war on voters”

by Amy Goodman

All eyes are on Iowa this week, as the hodgepodge field of Republican contenders gallivants across that farm state seeking a win, or at least “momentum,” in the campaign for the party’s presidential nomination. But behind the scenes, a battle is being waged by Republicans – not against each other, but against American voters. Across the country, state legislatures and governors are pushing laws that seek to restrict access to the voting booth, laws that will disproportionately harm people of color, low-income people, and young and elderly voters.

The National Association for the Advancement of Colored People and the NAACP Legal Defense and Educational Fund have just released a comprehensive report on the crisis, “Defending Democracy: Confronting Modern Barriers to Voting Rights in America.” In it, they write: “The heart of the modern block the vote campaign is a wave of restrictive government-issued photo identification requirements. In a coordinated effort, legislators in thirty-four states introduced bills imposing such requirements. Many of these bills were modeled on legislation drafted by the American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC) – a conservative advocacy group whose founder explained: ‘Our leverage in the elections quite candidly goes up as the voting populace goes down.’ ”

It is interesting that the right wing, long an opponent of any type of national identification card, is very keen to impose photo-identification requirements at the state level. Why? Ben Jealous, president of the NAACP, calls the voter ID laws “a solution without a problem. … It’s not going to make the vote more secure. What it is going to do is put the first financial barrier between people and their ballot box since we got rid of the poll tax.”

You don’t have to look far for people impacted by this new wave of voter-purging laws. Darwin Spinks, an 86-year-old World War II veteran from Murfreesboro, Tenn., went to the Department of Motor Vehicles to get a photo ID for voting purposes, since drivers over 60 there are issued driver’s licenses without photos. After waiting in two lines, he was told he had to pay $8. Requiring a voter to pay a fee to vote has been unconstitutional since the poll tax was outlawed in 1964. Over in Nashville, 93-year-old Thelma Mitchell had a state-issued ID – the one she used as a cleaner at the state Capitol building for more than 30 years. The ID had granted her access to the governor’s office for decades, but now, she was told, it wasn’t good enough to get her into the voting booth. She and her family are considering a lawsuit, an unfortunate turn of events for a woman who is older than the right of women to vote in this country.

It is not just the elderly being given the disenfranchisement runaround. The Brennan Center for Justice at the New York University School of Law points to “bills making voter registration drives extremely difficult and risky for volunteer groups, bills requiring voters to provide specific photo ID or citizenship documents … bills cutting back on early and absentee voting, bills making it hard for students and active-duty members of the military to register to vote locally, and more.”

U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder recently spoke on this alarming trend. He said: “Our efforts honor the generations of Americans who have taken extraordinary risks, and willingly confronted hatred, bias and ignorance – as well as billy clubs and fire hoses, bullets and bombs – to ensure that their children, and all American citizens, would have the chance to participate in the work of their government. The right to vote is not only the cornerstone of our system of government – it is the lifeblood of our democracy.”

Just this week, the Justice Department blocked South Carolina’s new law requiring voters to show photo IDs at the polls, saying data submitted by South Carolina showed that minority voters were about 20 percent more likely to lack acceptable photo ID required at polling places.

By some estimates, the overall population who may be disenfranchised by this wave of legislation is upward of 5 million voters, most of whom would be expected to vote with the Democratic Party. The efforts to quash voter participation are not genuine, grass-roots movements. Rather, they rely on funding from people like the Koch brothers, David and Charles. That is why thousands of people, led by the NAACP, marched on the New York headquarters of Koch Industries two weeks ago en route to a rally for voting rights at the United Nations.

Despite the media attention showered on the Iowa caucuses, the real election outcomes in 2012 will likely hinge more on the contest between billionaire political funders like the Kochs and the thousands of people in the streets, demanding one person, one vote.

Amy Goodman is the host of “Democracy Now!,” a daily TV/radio news hour. Denis Moynihan contributed research to this column.

DECEMBER – Week #4: “Are we alone in the universe?”

By

Huge excitement last week. Two Earth-size planetsfound orbiting a sun-like star less than a thousand light-years away. This comes two weeks after the stunning announcement of another planet orbiting another star at precisely the right distance — within the “habitable zone” that is not too hot and not too cold — to allow for liquid water and therefore possible life.

Unfortunately, the planets of the right size are too close to their sun, and thus too scorching hot, to permit Earth-like life. And the Goldilocks planet in the habitable zone is too large. At 2.4 times the size of Earth, it is probably gaseous, like Jupiter. No earthlings there. But it’s only a matter of time — perhaps a year or two, estimates one astronomer — before we find the right one of the right size in the right place.

And at just the right time. As the romance of manned space exploration has waned, the drive today is to find our living, thinking counterparts in the universe. For all the excitement, however, the search betrays a profound melancholy — a lonely species in a merciless universe anxiously awaits an answering voice amid utter silence.

That silence is maddening. Not just because it compounds our feeling of cosmic isolation, but because it makes no sense. As we inevitably find more and more exo-planets where intelligent life can exist, why have we found no evidence — no signals, no radio waves — that intelligent life does exist?

It’s called the Fermi Paradox, after the great physicist who once asked, “Where is everybody?” Or as was once elaborated: “All our logic, all our anti- isocentrism, assures us that we are not unique — that they must be there. And yet we do not see them.”

How many of them should there be? The Drake Equation (1961) tries to quantify the number of advanced civilizations in just our own galaxy. To simplify slightly, it’s the number of stars in the galaxy . . .

multiplied by the fraction that form planets . . .

multiplied by the average number of planets in the habitable zone . . .

multiplied by the fraction of these that give birth to life . . .

multiplied by the fraction of these that develop intelligence . . .

multiplied by the fraction of these that produce interstellar communications . . .

multiplied by the fraction of the planet’s lifetime during which such civilizations survive.

Modern satellite data, applied to the Drake Equation, suggest that the number should be very high. So why the silence? Carl Sagan (among others) thought that the answer is to be found, tragically, in the final variable: the high probability that advanced civilizations destroy themselves.

In other words, this silent universe is conveying not a flattering lesson about our uniqueness but a tragic story about our destiny. It is telling us that intelligence may be the most cursed faculty in the entire universe — an endowment not just ultimately fatal but, on the scale of cosmic time, nearly instantly so.

This is not mere theory. Look around. On the very day that astronomers rejoiced at the discovery of the two Earth-size planets, the National Science Advisory Board for Biosecurity urged two leading scientific journals not to publish details of lab experiments that had created a lethal and highly transmittable form of bird flu virus, lest that fateful knowledge fall into the wrong hands.

Wrong hands, human hands. This is not just the age of holy terror but also the threshold of an age of hyper-proliferation. Nuclear weapons in the hands of half-mad tyrants (North Korea) and radical apocalypticists (Iran) are only the beginning. Lethal biologic agents may soon find their way into the hands of those for whom genocidal pandemics loosed upon infidels are the royal road to redemption.

And forget the psychopaths: Why, a mere 17 years after Homo sapiens — born 200,000 years ago — discovered atomic power, those most stable and sober states, America and the Soviet Union, came within inches of mutual annihilation.

Rather than despair, however, let’s put the most hopeful face on the cosmic silence and on humanity’s own short, already baleful history with its new Promethean powers: Intelligence is a capacity so godlike, so protean that it must be contained and disciplined. This is the work of politics — understood as the ordering of society and the regulation of power to permit human flourishing while simultaneously restraining the most Hobbesian human instincts.

There could be no greater irony: For all the sublimity of art, physics, music, mathematics and other manifestations of human genius, everything depends on the mundane, frustrating, often debased vocation known as politics (and its most exacting subspecialty — statecraft). Because if we don’t get politics right, everything else risks extinction.

We grow justly weary of our politics. But we must remember this: Politics — in all its grubby, grasping, corrupt, contemptible manifestations — is sovereign in human affairs. Everything ultimately rests upon it.

Fairly or not, politics is the driver of history. It will determine whether we will live long enough to be heard one day. Out there. By them, the few — the only — who got it right.

letters@charleskrauthammer.com

Published in: A Challenge, Opinion, Politics, Science on at8:36 AM Comments (26)

DECEMBER – Week #4: “Mitt Romney tries to make history in Iowa and New Hampshire”

The Fix

If former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney can pull off back-to-back wins in the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary in the next 12 days, he will not only take a major step toward winning the Republican presidential nomination, but he’ll also write his name into the history books.

 

A new CNN/Opinion Research poll out Wednesday showed Romney leading Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas) in Iowa by a slim margin. The poll means Romney is now polling as the frontrunner in both of the two earliest states (he led Paul by 27 points in New Hampshire).

Since 1976 — the birth of the first-in-the-nation status for Iowa and New Hampshire — no non-incumbent GOP candidate has scored the daily double of winning both states back to back. Not one.

A quick history lesson: In 1980, George H.W. Bush won the Iowa caucuses but Ronald Reagan won the New Hampshire primary. In 1988, Bob Dole won Iowa and Bush won New Hampshire. Eight years later, Dole won Iowa again but Pat Buchanan emerged victorious in New Hampshire. In 2000, George W. Bush was the prohibitive favorite for the nomination and won Iowa but watched as Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) cruised to a New Hampshire win. And, in 2008 former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee won Iowa but McCain took New Hampshire and, eventually, the nomination.

Why hasn’t any Republican candidate been able to pull off wins in both of the two earliest voting states?

The most obvious reason is that the states tend to have very different electorates.

A caucus state, Iowa is heavily influenced by evangelical voters looking for a candidate who puts a premium on social conservative touchstones like abortion. Republicans in New Hampshire, on the other hand, are traditionally far more focused on fiscal issues than social ones.

In New Hampshire, registered Republicans and registered independents can vote — making the overall electorate far more centrist. While Iowa does have same-day registration for the caucuses — meaning you can register as a Republican in the morning and participate in the caucuses at night — it tends to be a contest dominated by committed GOPers.

The massive demands, financially and time-wise, of campaigning in the early states is also responsible for the series of split decisions in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Running major campaign in each state is a $5 million proposition (at least), and for campaigns trying to figure out where to spend limited resources, they have often taken to picking and choosing.

While few candidates go the route of McCain, who skipped Iowa altogether in 2000 and 2008, almost every candidate now prioritizes one state over the other when it comes to where to spend the majority of their time and money.

The very fact that Romney sits in the pole position — or, should we say, poll position — five days before Iowa and 12 days before New Hampshire is somewhat remarkable.

It’s all the more remarkable when you consider that one of the dominant storylines in the Republican race so far has been Romney’s relative weakness as a frontrunner.

If he wins both Iowa and New Hampshire, Romney will kill that narrative dead and, in so doing, almost certainly seal the Republican nomination for himself. He’ll also make a little bit of Republican history along the way.

Why Romney leads: Romney’s lead in the CNN poll in Iowa appears to be about pragmatism and personal attributes rather than issues.

When Iowa voters are asked who agrees with them the most on the issues, Paul leads Romney 22 percent to 18 percent.

When they are asked who has the best chance to beat Obama, though, Romney blows everyone out of the water with 41 percent. Gingrich is second at 17 percent, and Paul is third at 14 percent. On the question of who is most presidential, Romney leads Paul 25 percent to 19 percent.

Also worth noting: Plenty were criticizing the poll Wednesday for surveying only registered Republicans, noting that this could dilute Paul’s percentage. As noted above, people who aren’t registered with the GOP can — and often do — wind up participating.

That seems like a fair criticism. But even if Paul is actually a few points higher, it’s still a virtual tie.

Gingrich raised $9 million in the fourth quarter: Gingrich’s campaign is out with an early fundraising disclosure, saying the candidate raised $9 million in the still-yet-to-be-completed fourth quarter.

The total is a huge improvement for Gingrich from his previous quarters — which left him in debt — but it’s still not on-par with the best quarters in the GOP presidential race. Both Romney and Perry raised more than $14 million in the third quarter.

Gingrich is the first to announce his fundraising totals. The quarter ends on Saturday, and reports are due at the end of January.

Latinos dislike Obama on immigration, but stand by him: Despite opposing his administration’s deportation of a record amount of illegal immigrants, Latino voters say they will still support Obama in 2012.

A new Pew Hispanic Center report shows Latino voters disapprove of Obama’s illegal immigrant deportation policy by a 59 percent-to-27 percent margin.

On the other hand, more than two-thirds say they would vote for Obama over either Romney or Rick Perry.

Polling has consistently shown Latinos falling out of love with Obama, but so far, the GOP just hasn’t made itself into a viable alternative. And for now, it appears Obama could match his 2008 advantage among Latinos, which went a long way toward securing his victory among this growing demographic.

Fixbits:

Staying true to his positive campaigning pledge, Gingrich criticized the super PAC supporting his candidacy for sending a mailer that calls Romney the “second most dangerous man in America.” Gingrich previous urged Romney to tell his own super PAC to stop the negative attacks.

The National Organization for Marriage runs an ad in Iowa criticizing Paul.

The pro-Santorum super PAC is spending $250,000 on an ad for the candidate in Iowa. The CNN poll showed Santorum surging to third place, with 16 percent.

Former New Mexico governor Gary Johnson is officially seeking the Libertarian Party’s nomination for president after dropping out of the GOP race.

Published in: 2012 Election, A MUST READ, Opinion, Political Parties, Politics, Polls on December 29, 2011 at9:19 AM Comments (0)

DECEMBER – Week #4: “Why (and how) Iowa votes first”

By

With the Iowa caucuses now just a week away(!), here’s an explainer on why Iowa gets to go first and a guide to how the process will work on Jan. 3.

Why Iowa goes first: Before 1972, the Iowa caucuses received little attention. They occured in the middle of the nominating process and didn’t elect many delegates.

After the chaotic 1968 election, new national party rules led Democrats in Iowa to implement a proportional representation system, giving more candidates room to compete in the state.

The caucuses were moved up January not as a power play, but because the state party chairman was determined to give every delegate a copy of the rules and platform proposals. Officials determined that they would need four months to print the materials on their mimeograph machine.

South Dakota Sen. George McGovern focused intensely on Iowa that year and took in 20 percent of delegate representation. The frontrunner, Maine Sen. Edward Muskie, was tied with “uncommitted” at 35 percent. But the results countered the conventional wisdom that McGovern had no shot, and he ended up winning the nomination.

Iowa Democrats enjoyed the increased attention, and Iowa Republicans found themselves wishing they had an earlier caucus as well. The parties agreed to hold caucuses on the same January date in 1976, a practice that has continued ever since. That year Georgia Gov. Jimmy Carter came in second to “undecided” in Iowa and went on to win the nomination, cementing the state’s importance.

* How it works: Voters gather by precinct at 7 P.M. on caucus night. In both sets of caucuses, delegates to the county convention are allocated proportionally according to the number of supporters each candidate gets.

In the Republican process, everyone votes by secret ballot. (The Democratic process is more complicated.) There can be appeals from candidates’ supporters before the vote, but there is no negotiation or candidate-switching once the balloting begins.

Voters must be registered Republicans, but non-Republicans can register on site — creating a bit of an x-factor when trying to determine who will vote and in what numbers.

Caucus locations change every election. There are 1,774 precincts in this year’s GOP caucuses — some rural locations will get only a handful of participants while more urban precincts will likely have thousands.

What it means: In the grand scheme of things, Iowa is almost never determinative. Since 1972, only three non-incumbent candidates won the Iowa caucuses and went on to win the presidency — Carter, George W. Bush, and President Obama.

The caucuses are seen less as a predictor of the eventual nominee than as a contest that winnows the field. Conventional wisdom has it that there are three tickets out of Iowa — “first-class, coach, and standby.” Anyone who competes in Iowa but comes in fourth place or lower will have a hard time recovering, the argument goes.

Should Iowa be first? That depends on who you ask. Critics of the Iowa process say that the arcane rules and long meetings deter voters who cannot spend so much time on the political process due to financial, family or physical concerns.

Overall Iowa primary turnout is usually around six percent of eligible adults. Although it shot up to 16 percent in the 2008 cycle, that still puts it below most states. (If you look just at registered voters, it’s a little better — 19.4 percent of registered Republicans participated in 2008.)

The state is also not all that representative of the country at large, Iowa critics note. Only 17 percent of the country lives in rural areas; over 40 percent of Iowans do. The state is 91 percent white, compared to 72 percent of the rest of the country.

On the other hand, according to professor Michael Lewis-Beck of the University of Iowa, the state is extremely representative when it comes to economic factors — average pay, per capita income, unemployment, home ownership etc.

Supporters also argue that the small size of the state and the (now, relatively) long first-in-the-nation tradition has created an unusually committed and thoughtful electorate ready to vet the candidates, and that the caucus system encourages meaningful participation.

Will it change? No candidate wants to risk offending Iowa by siding with states that want to shake up the calendar. And so Iowa’s standing has withstood challenges to its primacy for decades now.

Individual candidates have boycotted: Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) skipped Iowa in 2000 and 2008, and former Utah governor Jon Huntsman is not competing there this cycle.

Some speculate that a victory by Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas), whose views diverge from the GOP on many major issues, would damage the caucuses’ credibility. And there is talk that the calendar could be headed for a major shakeup before 2016. Of course, Iowa has heard it all before — and still stands at the front of the nominating process.

© The Washington Post Company

DECEMBER – Week #4: “New Hampshire looks like Romney’s granite fortress”

By

MANCHESTER, N.H.

No matter what happens in Iowa, Mitt Romney has a safety net in New Hampshire.

And that could rank as the year’s most perilous sentence. Why shouldn’t Romney be surprised in the state that temporarily derailed Barack Obama’s supposedly rapid march toward nomination four years ago? Hillary Clinton humbled many a pundit here in 2008, reason enough to challenge the rapidly jelling conventional wisdom about the Republican presidential campaign.

In just a few weeks, Romney has been transformed from an embattled and weak front-runner into the real thing. He has a chance of winning the Iowa caucuses on Tuesday as his dazed opponents scratch at each other trying to emerge as the leading non-Romney.

Libertarian Ron Paul, who will never be nominated, now looks to be Romney’s main competition in Iowa. Paul is doing a fine job as Romney’s blocking back, preventing anyone else from emerging early enough to give Romney a stiff race.

The key to wrapping up a nomination quickly has always been an Iowa-New Hampshire one-two punch, and the Granite State, which votes Jan. 10, seems to be a Romney fortress. Romney’s headquarters here on Elm Street was bustling with activity on Tuesday night, as if Iowa didn’t matter. Leaving nothing to chance, Romney made campaign stops that day in Londonderry and Portsmouth before he left for his final Iowa push. If Iowa is Romney’s venture capital, New Hampshire is his nest egg.

“I don’t see anyone challenging Romney for the win,” said Fergus Cullen, the former New Hampshire state Republican chairman, referring to his state. “Second place,” he adds, “is still wide open,” a consolation only if Romney heads toward the GOP’s Southern contests weaker than he looks now.

Steve Duprey, the Republican National Committee member who, like Cullen, is neutral (though Susan Duprey, his politically influential wife, is a close adviser to Romney’s wife, Ann), sees Romney and Paul as having the strongest New Hampshire organizations — precisely what Iowa Republicans say about ground strength in their state. By contrast, he says, Newt Gingrich has little going on organizationally — his headquarters down the street from Romney’s was a quiet enclave Tuesday — and is depending almost entirely on enthusiastic support from the Union Leader in Manchester, the state’s legendary conservative daily newspaper. One of the mysteries of the contest is how the Union Leader might pivot if Gingrich stumbles in Iowa.

Former Utah governor Jon Huntsman has “a great professional organization,” Steve Duprey said, but also a core problem: “He started running as a moderate, and now he’s saying he’s a conservative. That’s confusing.” Indeed, Huntsman, who is skipping Iowa, wants to become the conservative alternative to Romney and Gingrich. Hoping that repetition is persuasive, Huntsman’s television and print ads here tout him as “a conservative hero in this race,” “more conservative than Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney combined,” and the author of “the most conservative” program. Pulling together moderate independents and dissatisfied conservatives is the magic Huntsman is betting on.

If everything seems to be going Romney’s way, here is a word of caution from an unexpected source. Former governor John Sununu is one of Romney’s staunchest supporters in the state but also a tested veteran of many a New Hampshire primary. “People have to understand that primary races are extremely volatile because all the candidates are expressing more or less the same philosophy,” this professor of ­realpolitik explained to me. “So primary races are often won or lost by nuances or small mistakes.” One of Sununu’s greatest political triumphs came in 1988, when he helped engineer a turn in the primary’s last days away from Bob Dole and toward his candidate, George H.W. Bush, with an eleventh-hour ad attacking Dole for “straddling” on taxes.

So what could possibly upend Romney? There are two debates scheduled for the weekend before the voting here. They present Romney with an opportunity to wrap things up — and a minefield of potential troubles. Or Iowa could anoint a new conservative alternative to Romney: A Rick Santorum surge or a Rick Perry comeback could create a new one-on-one dynamic here. Or Romney could simply fall far short of what are now soaring expectations in Iowa.

Still, what’s most astounding is that a Republican contest characterized all year by melodrama and comedy now seems headed toward the most conventional and predictable conclusion possible. It’s hard to believe that things will really end this way. The biggest upset would be no upset at all.

ejdionne@washpost.com

DECEMBER – Week #4: “No way to pick a president”

By , Published: December 28

As the breathless, panting political class turns its eager eyes to Iowa, every sane American needs to step back and ask the obvious question: Is this any way to pick a president?

Our country is essentially coming to a halt to watch what 120,000 idiosyncratic voters in an idiosyncratic state do.

This is like letting a single small city play a pivotal role in the selection of our next president.

If the people of, say, Thornton, Colo., said that Newt Gingrich was their man, would anyone care?

If everyone in Allentown, Pa., stood up for Ron Paul, would the nation notice?

How about Lafayette, La.? Evansville, Ind.? Coral Springs, Fla.? Or Surprise, Ariz.? (So named when Flora Mae Statler, who founded the place in 1938 on one square mile of farmland 45 minutes from Phoenix, said she would be “surprised” if it ever amounted to much.)

All these cities have about as many residents as are expected to vote in the Iowa caucuses. The idea that any would play a special, outsize role in choosing the leader of the free world is absurd.

Yet an Iowa win on Tuesday will lead to national magazine covers, a full media swoon and huge “implications” drawn by all of us who stroke our political chins for a living.

It’s not just that Iowa’s caucus electorate is puny. (The 120,000 figure is a prediction based on the fact that only about that many Republicans out of the state’s 3 million residents turned out in 2008.) The far-right tilt of this band of atypical Americans forces Republican candidates to disavow ideas that might make them attractive leaders to the rest of us.

Take Mitt Romney’s infamous (and unconvincing) contortions regarding his path-breaking health reform in Massachusetts. This “conservative businessman” enacted universal health care, for Pete’s sake! That’s what’s actually interesting about Romney. Yet the imperatives of Iowa (and other small early states) have forced Romney to devote much of his time to convincing a few ideologues that his pragmatic, effective leadership on health care has no place at the national level.

It’s bizarre.

As was Newt Gingrich’s related “transgression” Tuesday — when old newsletters from his health-care institute were found to have hailed Romneycare when it passed. Gingrich called the measure a potential model for the nation. Gingrich was right — and that was a good thing. Gingrich added that “we agree entirely with Gov. Romney and Massachusetts legislators that our goal should be 100 percent insurance coverage for all Americans.”

In the broader world, those judgments would mark Gingrich as a common-sense problem-solver. But in surreal Iowa, it means he’s “unreliable” and not conservative enough.

Then there’s Rick Perry, who proclaimed Tuesday that he had undergone a “transformation” on abortion and now believes (contrary to his long-standing position) that there should be no exceptions for rape, incest or saving the life of the mother. Now, I’m all for keeping an open mind and being willing to change your views as you learn and think more. That Perry’s campaign is sinking, the vote is days away, and conservative, religious Iowans tend to show up disproportionately on caucus night are the kind of coincidences only a cynic would note. When revelation strikes, it strikes.

Another day, another Iowa-induced pander.

On one level, the groveling is amusing to watch. But on a deeper level, it’s crazy when a handful of right-wing Iowans have the power to tilt the tenor of presidential debate.

You really can’t blame the politicians. Ambitious pols are like mice in those Skinner boxes — just tell me what lever I have to pull to get the food pellets. If we’re honest, most of the time, “political leadership” is a sophisticated and manipulative form of craven followership. That’s democracy.

And that’s why, if we want something better, it’s up to us to change the system. The structure of the presidential selection process matters because the constituencies it empowers, and the incentives it creates, shape the debate.

This is why the Americans Elect process has so much potential power. The idea that we could be freed from having candidates chosen by a handful of zealots in either party and, instead, have millions of Americans pick candidates directly via a secure online process would be transformative. And this year is just the test run.

History shapes us. It doesn’t determine us. Today we have Iowa. We also have employer-based health care. We also run education via 15,000 local school boards. These structures are relics. They don’t serve us well. We can change them.

Matt Miller, a co-host of public radio’s “Left, Right & Center,” writes a weekly online column for The Post. His e-mail address is mattino2@gmail.com

DECEMBER – Week #4: “Punditry a hit-and-miss job”

by Dana Milbank

WASHINGTON – Pundits say the darnedest things on TV.

Take, for example, the genius who said in January that “the president has a fairly easy” re-election ahead of him. Or the guy who said in June that Newt Gingrich, now the leading challenger to Mitt Romney for the Republican presidential nomination, was “finished, whether he knows he is or not.”

How about the talking head who said in July that House Speaker John Boehner had suffered a “mortal wound” at the hands of fellow Republicans? Or the one who predicted in August that Rick Perry would “hold his own” in the presidential debates?

One can only pity the commentator who pronounced Michele Bachmann “formidable” in August, just before her campaign imploded, or the one who forecast a monthslong “donnybrook” between Romney and the now-irrelevant Perry.

The pundit in each of these cases was, alas, the poor schnook whose byline appears above this column.

The luxury of being a prognosticator is never having to say you were wrong. Journalism is so disposable that, if you make your predictions with a long-enough time horizon, people will almost always forget what you said by the time it can be proved false.

This year, though, I decided to hold myself to account by going through every transcript of my TV appearances, and several recordings, to score my forecasts. It is not an exercise I’d recommend for pundits with fragile self-esteem (if there is such an animal), but the results might be a useful guide for viewers wondering whether that talking head on the tube is full of it.

I should mention that my newspaper columns tended not to produce as many wayward predictions; my editors save me from embarrassment. I should also reassure the producers who book me for their shows that, for all my goofs, my batting average is probably better than most.

I argued in January that Sarah Palin should no longer be regarded as a major political figure, and I predicted in early May that Herman Cain could well become the front-runner. I argued in August that the debt supercommittee was bound to fail, and asserted in September that Ron Paul, now vying for an upset win in Iowa, had managed to exert outsized influence in the race. In August, I predicted that voters would regard Perry as “goofy,” and, a month before his “oops” moment, I described him as “on his way to being just another Rick Santorum.”

If there’s a pattern to my hits and misses – other than dumb luck – it’s the distinction between predicting specific outcomes and recognizing broad trends.

When making predictions based on a specific event, there’s a danger of exaggerating the significance. When Haley Barbour decided not to join the presidential race, I deduced that he “is really saying that nobody can beat (President) Obama.” In retrospect, Barbour was only saying that he wasn’t running.

Trying to predict the daily back-and-forth of politics is like trying to make sense of gyrations in the stock market. Within a few weeks this summer, for example, I went from hailing Bachmann’s staying power to predicting that it’s “probably curtains for her.”

What a political journalist can do with some reliability, however, is discern underlying patterns. Covering George W. Bush’s first term, I found him fairly easy to predict: He would, invariably, stake out a position of maximum satisfaction to his conservative base. Similarly, handicapping Congress has been simple: You won’t lose money betting on failure.

In the presidential race, my predictions are based on a historical assumption: that Republican voters, as I’ve argued regularly, tend to explore all other possibilities before settling on the most obvious one. If this pattern holds, Romney will be the nominee in the end. That assumption is behind my oft-stated prediction that, despite the late surge by Gingrich, Republican voters will come to their senses.

Probably the most useful bit of TV commentary I did in 2011 was to remind viewers how little I know. The Republican presidential contest in Iowa, for example, has been dominated by volatility. I’ve noted many times that the people who will determine the outcome there are a few thousand tea party faithful and evangelical Christians – such a small sample that anything could happen. That’s why we’ve had half a dozen different front-runners there.

The caucuses are now less than a week away, and I still don’t have a clue. If people on TV are telling you otherwise, they’re making it up.

Happy New Year: Not a prediction, just a wish.

Dana Milbank’s email address is danamilbank@washpost.com.

Published in: 2012 Election, Opinion, Politics on at8:19 AM Comments (10)

DECEMBER – Week #4: “Growing wealth widens distance between lawmakers and constituents”

By ,

BUTLER, Pa. — One day after his shift at the steel mill, Gary Myers drove home in his 10-year-old Pontiac and told his wife he was going to run for Congress.

The odds were long. At 34, ­Myers was the shift foreman at the “hot mill” of the Armco plant here. He had no political experience and little or no money, and he was a Republican in a district that tilted Democratic.

But standing in the dining room, still in his work clothes, he said he felt voters deserved a better choice.

Three years later, he won.

When Myers entered Congress, in 1975, it wasn’t nearly so unusual for a person with few assets besides a home to win and serve in Congress. Though lawmakers on Capitol Hill have long been more prosperous than other Americans, others of that time included a barber, a pipe fitter and a house painter. A handful had even organized into what was called the “Blue Collar Caucus.

But the financial gap between Americans and their representatives in Congress has widened considerably since then, according to an analysis of financial disclosures by The Washington Post.

Between 1984 and 2009, the median net worth of a member of the House more than doubled, according to the analysis of financial disclosures, from $280,000 to $725,000 in inflation-adjusted 2009 dollars, excluding home ­equity.

Over the same period, the wealth of an American family has declined slightly, with the comparable median figure sliding from $20,600 to $20,500, according to the Panel Study of Income Dynamics from the University of Michigan.

The comparisons exclude home equity because it is not included in congressional reporting, and 1984 was chosen because it is the earliest year for which consistent wealth statistics are available.

The growing disparity between the representatives and the represented means that there is a greater distance between the economic experience of Americans and those of lawmakers.

“My mother and I used to joke we were like the Beverly Hillbillies when we rolled into McLean, and we really were,” said Michele ­Myers, the congressman’s daughter, now 46. “My dad was driving this awful lime-green Ford Maverick, and I bought my clothes at Kmart.”

Today, this area of Pennsylvania just north of Pittsburgh is represented in Congress by another Republican, Mike Kelly, a wealthy car dealer elected for the first time in 2010. Kelly, as it happens, grew up just a few houses down the street from the Myers family, in a larger brick home.

Kelly’s dad owned the local Chevrolet-Cadillac dealership in Butler, and Kelly, an affable former football recruit to Notre Dame, had worked there since he was a kid. Three years after graduating from college, he married Victoria Phillips, an heir to the Phillips oil fortune. He eventually bought and took control of the family car business, and today, the net worth of Kelly and his wife runs in the millions of dollars, according to financial disclosure forms.

Both men refer to their personal life experiences in explaining their political outlook.

Myers, the son of a bricklayer, had worked his way through college to a bachelor’s degree in mechanical engineering, and he looked at issues of work and security at least partly through the lens of his own experience. For example, he bucked other Republicans to vote to raise the minimum wage and favored expanding a program to aid workers affected by foreign imports. He said he understood the need for what was then called “the safety net.”

“It would be hard to argue that the work in the steel mill didn’t give me a different perspective,” said Myers, now 74 and retired in Florida. “I think everybody’s history has an impact on them.”

Kelly, on the other hand, focuses on the hard work he and his family have done to build the dealership. He thinks that the government should be run more like a business, and that laws must be fair to people who strive and succeed. He opposes the estate tax, the inheritance tax levied on the wealthy, because, among other things, he feels he has been overtaxed already. He says unemployment checks make some less willing to go back to work. And asked about tax breaks for oil companies, he notes that when corporations profit, people with pensions and portfolios do, too.

Moreover, he favors the budget plan advanced by Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), which seeks to eliminate tax loopholes and lowers the income tax on the highest earners from 35 percent to 25 percent.

In explaining his outlook, Kelly often refers to his father. One of nine kids who started the car business almost from scratch, his father was skeptical of the ideas for social programs and education that his son brought home from college in the late 1960s.

“He’d say, ‘Oh, I love your ideas, I love your ideas,’ ” Kelly recalled. “But he’d say, ‘You know why it’s a great country, don’t you? We worked our a—- off. That’s why it’s a great country.’ ”

High cost of campaigning

The growing financial comfort of Congress relative to most Americans is consistent with the general trends in the United States toward inequality of wealth: Members of Congress have long been wealthier than average Americans, and in recent decades the wealth of the wealthiest Americans has outpaced that of the average.

In 1984, the 90th percentile of U.S. families had holdings worth six times the median family’s; by 2009, the 90th percentile was worth 12 times the median family, according to the University of Michigan study, a longitudinal panel survey. These figures include home equity.

This growing inequality, not surprisingly, is seen in Congress. Not only has the median wealth increased, but the proportion of representatives who have little besides a home has shrunk. In 1984, one in five House members had zero or negative net worth excluding home equity, according to the disclosures; by 2009, that number had dropped to one in 12.

Another possible reason for the growing wealth of Congress is that running a campaign has become much, much more expensive, making it more likely that wealthy people, who can donate substantially to their own campaigns, gain office.

Since 1976, the average amount spent by winning House candidates quadrupled in inflation-adjusted dollars, to $1.4 million, according to the Federal Election Commission.

For example, Myers’s first winning campaign, in 1974, cost $33,000, according to federal election records. That’s about $146,000 in current dollars, or one-tenth the current average. To make do, his wife held coffee klatches and improvised brochures with markers and index cards.

“Each one had different colors and designs my mom made — and they’d hand them out at stores,” recalled Myers’s son, Mark. “I don’t want to disparage my parents, but it was kind of like they were running for student council.”

By contrast, when Kelly ran for the first time in 2010, he spent $1.2 million on his election, financing $380,000 of it himself, according to campaign records.

Finally, while congressional pay is a frequent object of controversy, it is unlikely to have been one of the reasons for the growing disparity between representatives and their constituents. In inflation-adjusted dollars, Myers earned $215,000 in 1977; today, a member of Congress earns $174,000.

Political polarization

About a decade ago, academics studying the effect of income inequality on politics noticed a striking fact: The growth of income inequality has tracked very closely with measures of political polarization, which has been gauged using the average difference ­between the liberal/conservative scores for Republican and Democratic members of the House. The scores come from a database widely used by academics.

“The proximity of these trends is uncanny,” researchers Nolan McCar­ty, Keith T. Poole and Howard Rosenthal wrote in a a 2003 paper. “Remarkably, the trends of economic inequality and elite political polarization have moved almost in tandem for the past half-century.”

Exactly why this should be is a matter of ongoing research. Likewise, it is probably impossible to pinpoint the effects that the growing wealth gap may have on members of Congress — too many different factors, including party affiliation and district leanings, come to bear when a member of Congress casts a vote.

But a person’s financial circumstances certainly affect a person’s political outlook. For example, people identified as lower or middle class have been more likely to see income inequality as a problem and to favor redistribution of income, according to figures from the General Social Survey.

Moreover, there is at least some research that shows that members of Congress bring their life experiences to bear when they vote. Members of Congress with a higher proportion of daughters, for example, are more likely to take liberal positions on women’s issues, according to a 2006 working paper for the National Bureau of Economic Research by Ebonya Washington.

A representative’s occupation before being elected influences how liberal or conservative he or she is in voting, according to an analysis of more than 50 years of congressional votes by Duke University professor Nick Carnes.

In order from most conservative to most liberal: farm owners; businesspeople such as bankers or insurance executives; private-sector professionals such as doctors, engineers and architects; lawyers; service-based professionals such as teachers and social workers; politicians; and blue-collar workers, according to the analysis, which is being published in Legislative Studies Quarterly.

Carnes said that while party affiliation is the strongest determinant of voting records, “the differences between legislators of different occupational backgrounds are pretty striking. People tend to bring the worldview that comes with their occupation with them into office,” he said.

‘Kill more than you eat’

Kelly begins the story of the car dealership with his father, who started out in the auto business as a “parts picker” in a warehouse. Getting paid by the part, he donned roller skates to bump up his productivity.

Eventually his father saved enough to buy a dealership here and soon the family was building a new showroom themselves on a farm just outside town. Mike Kelly, as the oldest, was in charge of feeding the animals.

“Each of the boys was in charge of some area of the dealership,” recalled Pat Collins, who worked for a year at the dealership in the ’70s. She is now the director of the Butler County Historical Society. “That was Mike’s life — the cars. The Kellys had the dealership, but those kids were not put above anybody else. They worked.”

“He used to sweep up the garage, wash cars for his dad,” said Art Bernardi, Kelly’s old football coach at Butler High School, where Kelly excelled. “I’m sure he had a lot more than the average guy. But he doesn’t live a fancy life. He acts like someone who works at the mill or whatever.”

In 1973, Kelly married Victoria Phillips, an heir to the oil fortune. Kelly’s financial disclosure forms show that among her holdings is stock in Phillips Resources Inc., which is valued at between $5 million and $25 million and which generated more than $100,000 annually in dividends.

Four years out of college in 1974, Mike and Victoria were able to buy a home for $50,000, roughly twice the median value of homes in Pennsylvania at the time, a large, stately house close to downtown.

In 1997, Kelly bought his dad’s business from him, taking out a $1.6 million mortgage to pay for it.

When discussing his wealth and how it came to him, Kelly, who was called “Millionaire Mike” during the 2010 campaign, grows animated.

“The way my dad taught me was pretty basic: You have to kill more than you eat. You gotta wake up every day before anyone else, you better get to work, and you better stay later than everybody else,” he said. “I’m a rich guy because I’ve worked hard. I gotta work every fricking day. Listen, nobody gives it to you. I compete. I’m not the only guy selling hot dogs at the ballpark, okay?”

His life at the car dealership influences much of his political outlook:

●On unemployment. Asked how long the government should pay jobless benefits, Kelly suggests that checks from the government keep some of the unemployed from returning to work. He interviews some of the jobless for openings at the dealership.

“They say, ‘When are you looking to hire somebody?’ I say, ‘Right now — that’s why we have an ad in the paper.’ They say, ‘Well, I still have about six weeks left on my unemployment. Will you still be looking for somebody then?’ ”

Kelly shrugs.

“I think that in a way we have made it harder for people to make a decision to move forward,” he said.

●On the estate tax, which he would like to repeal. “The death tax doesn’t make sense to me. I would like to think that after I’ve worked all my life I could pass something on and not have to worry about a government that already overtaxed me my whole life taking it one day.”

●On Washington, the wealthy, and the private sector: “Let’s stop railing against the really wealthy because I got to tell you something, as a guy who has had to pay his own way his whole life, I am greatly offended by the idea that somehow someone in Washington knows how to spend my money better than I do,” Kelly said during emotional remarks during a committee markup in June that attracted lots of attention through YouTube.

Kelly has been critical of the bank bailouts, too. But he declined to say whether he favored the government’s $50 billion bailout of General Motors, which benefited his auto dealership. Had GM gone out of business, it would have deprived Kelly of cars to sell at his Chevrolet-Cadillac dealership, reducing his inventory to Hyundais, Kias and used cars. The government’s “Cash for Clunkers” program, which offered financial incentives for consumers to trade in old cars, also helped Kelly sell $2.9 million worth of cars.

As the automaker neared the brink of collapse in December 2008, didn’t he hope the government would offer a lifeline?

“I thought about making my payroll every two weeks,” he said.

From poverty to Congress

In the “hot mill” at the Armco steel plant, Myers supervised about 25 steelworkers, the members of an independent union. The operation transformed slabs of steel in ovens heated to about 2,000 degrees Fahrenheit into coils, for later processing. He considered himself neither a worker nor a part of executive management. He was a shift foreman with engineering responsibilities, and each day he wore a work shirt, jeans and work boots.

He had grown up poor. His father, a bricklayer, had a drinking problem, he said, and his mother, a schoolteacher, largely raised Myers and his three siblings. At 9, Myers recalls working at his grandfather’s nine-table restaurant, washing dishes for 10 cents an hour. As a teenager, he started a business mowing lawns and eventually set his eyes on getting one of the co-op jobs at the steel mill, which allowed him to earn a bachelor’s degree in mechanical engineering at the University of Cincinnati.

That day in the dining room, he had explained to his wife that voters deserved better representation because neither “the Democrats or Republicans are putting up good options for us.”

Besides, he had tried to talk his brother into running, and he wouldn’t do it.He recognized that his run for Congress might seem presumptuous.

“When it started getting around and the fellas down at work heard about it, I thought people might say stuff — you know, down there you stub your toe and they ridicule you,” Myers said. “I suppose some people probably thought, ‘What’s that Myers think he’s doing?’ But no one said anything. I was very grateful.”

He didn’t know much about running a campaign, and it was largely improvised by his wife, Elaine. She organized small gatherings and offered him tips on public speaking — when she noticed people’s feet started shuffling, she flashed him a sign to move on to another subject.

For fundraising, he turned to the president of a local plant who had connections to some of the money in the area.

“I said, ‘Why don’t we have a fundraiser at Elwood Country Club?’ ” recalled Robert Barensfeld, then president of the Elwood City Forge, a local plant, who became his finance chairman. “He thought it was the greatest idea since free beer.”

But while Myers accepted individual contributions, he shunned money from businesses and lobbying groups. Barensfeld said “it was against his principle.” Some of his volunteers thought he should take it, but Myers told them he didn’t want to get elected simply because he had more money.

He lost his first election but was encouraged by the narrow margin of defeat. He ran again in 1974 and won. On the day after his election, a Pittsburgh television station asked him to come be a guest on a news show. Myers told them he couldn’t come because he had worn out both of the family cars during the campaign. The station agreed to send a car for him.

In Washington, Myers in most ways hewed to the Republican line: He voted at times to hold down the government’s debt, for example, and voted against raising Social Security taxes.

But like Kelly, he brought to bear his life experiences.

As might be expected of an engineer, Myers had a scientific cast of mind, according to his staffers at the time, demanding research and numbers to inform his views. But with the steel mills in his district struggling, he was also keenly aware of the problems facing thousands of workers. On issues relating directly to workers, Myers sometimes broke with the party majority.

He supported, for example, a hike in the minimum wage, then $2.30 an hour. He supported an amendment expanding a program that extends unemployment and other benefits to workers adversely affected by trade. He voted for a $4 billion boost to a public works jobs program pushed by President Jimmy Carter.

“I think he realized that good people sometimes fall on hard times,” said James Kunder, who as a young Harvard graduate just out of the Marines worked as an aide to Myers in the ’70s. “He wouldn’t have been elected from that district at that time if he didn’t exude some of that spirit.”

Today, amid the debates on tax rates on the wealthy, he suggests raising the marginal income tax rate on the very highest incomes to 45 percent.

Myers also broke with Republicans on issues relating to business influence in politics, voting to require lobbying groups to disclose mass mailings and proposing an amendment that would force businesses to disclose when former members of the House lobbied on the House floor.

“He clearly saw that money could adversely affect politics,” said Jim Turner, another former aide, then recently out of Yale Divinity School.

Near the beginning of his second term, Myers stunned his staff and many in his district by announcing that he would not run for a third term, which it appeared he could have easily earned. He said he wanted to spend more time with his kids. He returned to the mill, taking a pay cut from the $57,500 that members of Congress then earned. Back in Butler, he coached his son’s baseball team and helped start a soccer program at the high school.

Today, when asked about the effect of wealth on members of Congress, Myers is characteristically detached.

“I guess I could see where someone who made a lot from personal risk-taking and business initiative could have a different outlook. Even if people come with biases, I’m not sure they’re evil biases. I don’t have any problem with someone who has a lot of money. But I don’t have any doubt that my perspective was different from someone who had more money.”

DECEMBER – Week #4: “A country in denial about its fiscal future”

By

There are moments when our political system, whose essential job is to mediate conflicts in broadly acceptable and desirable ways, is simply not up to the task. It fails. This may be one of those moments. What we learned in 2011 is that the frustrating and confusing budget debate may never reach a workable conclusion. It may continue indefinitely until it’s abruptly ended by a severe economic or financial crisis that wrenches control from elected leaders.

We are shifting from “giveaway politics” to “takeaway politics.” Since World War II, presidents and Congresses have been in the enviable position of distributing more benefits to more people without requiring ever-steeper taxes. Now this governing formula no longer works, and politicians face the opposite: taking away — reducing benefits or raising taxes significantly — to prevent government deficits from destabilizing the economy. It is not clear that either Democrats or Republicans can navigate the change.

Our political system has failed before. Conflicts that could not be resolved through debate, compromise and legislation were settled in more primitive and violent ways. The Civil War was the greatest and most tragic failure; leaders couldn’t end slavery peacefully. In our time, the social protests and disorders of the 1960s — the civil rights and antiwar movements and urban riots — almost overwhelmed the political process. So did double-digit inflation, peaking at 13 percent in 1979 and 1980, which for years defied efforts to control it.

The budget impasse raises comparable questions. Can we resolve it before some ill-defined crisis imposes its own terms? For years, there has been a “something for nothing” aspect to our politics. More people became dependent on government. From 1960 to 2010, the share of federal spending going for “payments to individuals” (Social Security, food stamps, Medicare and the like) climbed from 26 percent to 66 percent. Meanwhile, the tax burden barely budged. In 1960, federal taxes were 17.8 percent of national income (gross domestic product). In 2007, they were 18.5 percent of GDP.

This good fortune reflected falling military spending — from 52 percent of federal outlays in 1960 to 20 percent today — and solid economic growth that produced ample tax revenue. Generally modest budget deficits bridged any gap. But now this favorable arithmetic has collapsed under the weight of slower economic growth (even after a recovery from the recession), an aging population (increasing the number of recipients) and high health costs (already 26 percent of federal spending). Present and prospective deficits are gargantuan.

The trouble is that, while the economics of giveaway policies have changed, the politics haven’t. Liberals still want more spending, conservatives more tax cuts. (Although the tax burden has stayed steady, various “cuts” have offset projected increases and shifted the burden.) With a few exceptions, Democrats and Republicans haven’t embraced detailed takeaway policies to reconcile Americans’ appetite for government benefits with their distaste for taxes. President Obama has provided no leadership. Aside from Rep. Paul Ryan (Wis.), chairman of the House Budget Committee, few Republicans have.

No one wants to take away; it’s more fun to give. All of 2011’s budget feuds — over the debt ceiling, the supercommittee, the payroll tax cut — skirted the central issues. There’s a legitimate debate about how fast deficits should be reduced to avoid jeopardizing the economic recovery, notes Charles Blahous, a White House official in George W. Bush’s administration. But the long-term budget problem, as he says, stems from Social Security, Medicare and other health programs.

Any resolution of the budget impasse must repudiate, at least partially, the past half-century’s politics. Conservatives look at the required tax increases and say, “No way.” Liberals look at the required benefit cuts and say, “No way.”

Each reverts to scripted evasions. Liberals imply (wrongly) that taxing the rich will solve the long-term budget problem. It won’t. For example, the Forbes 400 richest Americans have a collective wealth of $1.5 trillion. If the government simply confiscated everything they own, and turned them into paupers, it would barely cover the one-time 2011 deficit of $1.3 trillion. Conservatives deplore “spending” in the abstract, ignoring the popularity of much spending, especially Social Security and Medicare.

So the political system is failing. It’s stuck in the past. It can’t make desirable choices about the future. It can’t resolve deep conflicts.

An alternative theory is that we’re muddling our way to a messy consensus. All the studies and failed negotiations lay the groundwork for ultimate accommodation. Perhaps. But it’s just as likely that this year’s partisan scapegoating implies more partisan scapegoating. Political leaders assume that financial markets won’t ever choke on U.S. debt and force higher interest rates, stiff spending cuts and tax increases.

At best, this is wishful thinking. At worst, it’s playing Russian roulette with the country’s future.

DECEMBER – Week #3: “Can Ron Paul win Iowa? Yup.”

By , December 19

Fifteen days out from the Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses there’s one question on the collective mind of the political world: Can Ron Paul actually win?

The Texas Republican is, without question, far better organized in the state than he was in 2008 when he placed fifth in the state’s caucuses. And, he has been on television for months with commercials that are a vast improvement over the this-looks-like-it-was-done-in-my-parents’- basement ads that he ran in the last race. (The improvement in Paul’s ads is due to the underrated Jon Downs.)

Republican presidential candidate U.S. Representative Ron Paul (R-TX) speaking at a Town Hall meeting during a campaign stop in Marshalltown, Iowa, December 10, 2011. REUTERS/Jeff Haynes

That Paul will take one of the top three spots is beyond question. What even the most veteran Iowa operatives acknowledge they don’t know is whether he will win, place or show.

“Ron Paul is a real wild card,” said Dave Roederer who managed the Iowa efforts of President George W. Bush and Arizona Sen. John McCain.

The best (only?) way to understand whether Paul can win is to look back at how he did in 2008 and extrapolate from there.

In 2008, Paul got 11,817 votes, which amounted to 10 percent of the overall vote. Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee won the caucuses with 40,841 (34.4 percent). The total number of votes cast was 118,696 — a high point in the last two decades of the state’s caucuses.

The two critical questions for Paul going forward: How much can he grow 2008 base, which we are assuming starts at around 12,000 votes, and how many people will ultimately turn out?

Let’s tackle the second question first.

Almost no one in Iowa Republican politics expects turnout to be as high or higher than the 120,000 (or so) who voted nearly four years ago. The level of interest in the race is significantly lower — due in large part to a general lack of excitement about the field. (In an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll conducted earlier this month, 51 percent of Republicans said the GOP field is just “average”.)

The question is where does turnout ultimately wind up. Is it similar to 1988 when 109,000 people voted? Or 1996 when 96,000 people attended the caucuses? Or could it dip all the way to 79,000 when George W. Bush won almost 36,000 votes and cruised to an easy 11 point victory over businessman Steve Forbes?

Experts are estimating that turnout will be in the neighborhood of 100,000 although, in truth, no one really knows for certain due to the lack of significant political organizations in the state. (Without traditional campaign operations identifying their voters, it’s much more difficult to get a firm grasp on how many people might show up.)

But, for the sake of argument, let’s assume the 100,000 number is roughly right.

The lowest winning percentage for any candidate in the past two decades is 26 percent, which is what then Kansas Sen. Bob Dole got in 1996 when he narrowly beat back a challenge from his conservative right in the form of populist Pat Buchanan.

Assuming that is the floor for what Paul would need to get to win, that means he needs to find roughly double the number of votes he won in 2008.

Paul allies are confident they have 20,000 supporters identified right now. “I think we do not have as many id’s as Romney has, but we have more solidity in our id’s,”said a source familiar with Paul thinking

The Paul operation’s goal is to get to 25,000 votes, according to the source. While that number has never been enough to win a caucus before —Dole got 25,378 votes in 1996 — it’s possible that the combination of a very fractured field and lower turnout could allow Paul to eke out a win next month.

While conventional wisdom is that Paul benefits from a smaller overall turnout — making his loyalists a larger share of the electorate — his supporters insist that is not necessarily a correct assumption.

As evidence they point to the Ames Straw Poll earlier this year where Paul came within 152 votes of beating Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann despite the fact that turnout (almost 17,000) was the second highest in the history of the event. “I think turnout going higher is actually good for us as it means more younger voters and independents,” said the source familiar with the thinking of the Paul campaign.

A Paul victory in Iowa is still not the most likely scenario. But, a look at the math he needs to win — or come close — suggests it’s nowhere near as outlandish as scenario as many people (still) think.

Published in: 2012 Election, Class Activities/Discussion, Political Parties, Politics, Polls on December 21, 2011 at10:24 AM Comments (1)

DECEMBER – Week #3: “Palin? Jeb Bush? Ghosts of candidates past reemerge as votes near”

By Michael A. Memoli

1:50 PM PST, December 19, 2011

Is Sarah Palin flirting with the presidential race again? Might Jeb Bush be the GOP’s white knight? And shouldn’t Democrats give Hillary Rodham Clinton another chance?

‘Tis the season. The silly season, that is, at least as far as the race for the White House goes.

With just two weeks before we finally see votes cast in the 2012 race, it seems some just refuse to accept that the field of candidates is settled.

Among them, apparently, is Palin, the former Alaska governor and 2008 vice presidential nominee.

Palin was asked in an interview set to air this evening on the Fox Business Network whether it was too late for her to consider running for president next year.

“It’s not too late for folks to jump in. Who knows what will happen in the future,” she said, according to an advanced copy of her remarks.

Palin is a paid contributor to the Fox cable news networks, and is reportedly trying to land another reality show deal.

Donald Trump already has a reality show, and coincidentally refuses to rule out his own candidacy as an independent if he is unhappy with the ultimate Republican choice. He’s gone on just about every news show willing to book him to say so.

From the conspicuous timing department comes Jeb Bush. As polls show that Newt Gingrich, the most recent GOP frontrunner, appears to have lost some steam, the former Florida governor has penned an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal that has some Republicans hoping it’s a sign that he is now leaving the door open after having definitively ruled out the possibility.

“Have we lost faith in the free-market system of entrepreneurial capitalism? Are we no longer willing to place our trust in the creative chaos unleashed by millions of people pursuing their own best economic interests?” Bush asks.

“Can you still get on the ballot in enough states to spare us from Mitt Romney?” some Republicans can be heard asking back.

But Republicans aren’t alone in such flirtations. In a Politico op-ed, pollsters for two former Democratic presidents call on voters in New Hampshire to write-in Clinton’s name in the state’s Jan. 10 primary.

“Clinton pulled off a stunning New Hampshire primary victory over Obama during the 2008 primaries. There is every reason to believe that, as a write-in candidate, she would get a substantial number of votes in the Granite State next year,” Patrick Caddell, who worked for Jimmy Carter, and Douglas Schoen, a former Bill Clinton pollster, wrote.

Schoen is now also working for Americans Elect, an effort that seeks to land an independent candidate on the general election ballot.

These whimsical notions come as most Americans say they just can’t wait for the election to end. A Gallup survey found that just 26% of respondents can’t wait for the campaign to begin, while 70% say they can’t wait for it to be over. Independents and seniors tended to be the most eager to see the election come and go.

Copyright © 2011, Los Angeles Times

Published in: 2012 Election, Institutions, Political Parties, Politics, Polls on December 20, 2011 at8:36 AM Comments (0)

DECEMBER – Week #3: “In Kim’s Death, an Extensive Intelligence Failure”

December 19, 2011
By and

WASHINGTON — Kim Jong-il, the enigmatic North Korean leader, died on a train at 8:30 a.m. Saturday in his country. Forty-eight hours later, officials in South Korea still did not know anything about it — to say nothing of Washington, where the State Department acknowledged “press reporting” of Mr. Kim’s death well after North Korean state media had already announced it.

For South Korean and American intelligence services to have failed to pick up any clues to this momentous development — panicked phone calls between government officials, say, or soldiers massing around Mr. Kim’s train — attests to the secretive nature of North Korea, a country not only at odds with most of the world but also sealed off from it in a way that defies spies or satellites.

Asian and American intelligence services have failed before to pick up significant developments in North Korea. Pyongyang built a sprawling plant to enrich uranium that went undetected for about a year and a half until North Korean officials showed it off in late 2010 to an American nuclear scientist. The North also helped build a complete nuclear reactor in Syria without tipping off Western intelligence.

As the United States and its allies confront a perilous leadership transition in North Korea — a failed state with nuclear weapons — the closed nature of the country will greatly complicate their calculations. With little information about Mr. Kim’s son and successor, Kim Jong-un, and even less insight into the palace intrigue in Pyongyang, the North’s capital, much of their response will necessarily be guesswork.

“We have clear plans about what to do if North Korea attacks, but not if the North Korean regime unravels,” said Michael J. Green, a former Asia adviser in the Bush administration. “Every time you do these scenarios, one of the first objectives is trying to find out what’s going on inside North Korea.”

In many countries, that would involve intercepting phone calls between government officials or peering down from spy satellites. And indeed, American spy planes and satellites scan the country. Highly sensitive antennas along the border between South and North Korea pick up electronic signals. South Korean intelligence officials interview thousands of North Koreans who defect to the South each year.

And yet remarkably little is known about the inner workings of the North Korean government. Pyongyang, officials said, keeps sensitive information limited to a small circle of officials, who do not talk.

“This is a society that thrives on its opaqueness,” said Christopher R. Hill, a former special envoy who negotiated with the North over its nuclear program. “It is very complex. To understand the leadership structure requires going way back into Korean culture to understand Confucian principles.”

On Monday, the Obama administration held urgent consultations with allies but said little publicly about Mr. Kim’s death. Senior officials acknowledged they were largely bystanders, watching the drama unfold in the North and hoping that it does not lead to acts of aggression against South Korea.

None of the situations envisioned by American officials for North Korea are comforting. Some current and former officials assume that Kim Jong-un is too young and untested to step confidently into his father’s shoes. Some speculate that the younger Mr. Kim might serve in a kind of regency, in which the real power would be wielded by military officials like Jang Song-taek, Kim Jong-il’s brother-in-law and confidant, who is 65.

Such an arrangement would do little to relieve the suffering of the North Korean people or defuse the tension over its nuclear ambitions. But it would be preferable to an open struggle for power in the country.

“A bad scenario is that they go through a smooth transition, and the people keep starving and they continue to develop nuclear weapons,” said Jeffrey A. Bader, a former Asia adviser to President Obama. “The unstable transition, in which no one is in charge, and in which control of their nuclear program becomes even more opaque, is even worse.”

As failures go, the Central Intelligence Agency’s inability to pick up hints of Mr. Kim’s death was comparatively minor. But as one former agency official, speaking on condition of anonymity about classified matters, pointed out: “What’s worst about our intel is our failure to penetrate deep into the existing leadership. We get defectors, but their information is often old. We get midlevel people, but they often don’t know what’s happening in the inner circle.”

The worst intelligence failure, by far, came in the middle of the Iraq war. North Korea was building a nuclear reactor in Syria, based on the design of its own reactor at Yongbyon. North Korean officials traveled regularly to the site.

Yet the United States was ignorant about it until Meir Dagan, then the head of the Mossad, Israel’s intelligence service, visited President George W. Bush’s national security adviser and dropped photographs of the reactor on his coffee table. It was destroyed by Israel in an airstrike in 2007 after the United States turned down Israeli requests to carry out the strike.

While the C.I.A. long suspected that North Korea was working on a second pathway to a bomb — uranium enrichment — it never found the facilities. Then, last year, a Stanford University scientist was given a tour of a plant, in the middle of the Yongbyon complex, which American satellites monitor constantly. It is not clear why satellite surveillance failed to detect construction on a large scale at the complex.

The failure to pick up signs of turmoil are especially disconcerting for people in South Korea. The South’s capital, Seoul, is only 35 miles from the North Korean border, and the military is on constant alert for a surprise attack.

Yet in the 51 hours from the apparent time of Mr. Kim’s death until the official announcement of it, South Korean officials appeared to detect nothing unusual.

During that time, President Lee Myung-bak traveled to Tokyo, met with the Japanese prime minister, Yoshihiko Noda, returned home and was honored at a party for his 70th birthday.

At 10 a.m. local time on Monday, even as North Korean media reported that there would be a “special announcement” at noon, South Korean officials shrugged when asked whether something was afoot. The last time Pyongyang gave advance warning of a special announcement was in 1994, when they reported the death of Mr. Kim’s father, Kim Il-sung, who also died of a heart failure. (South Korea was caught completely off guard by the elder Mr. Kim’s death, which was not disclosed for 22 hours.)

“ ‘Oh, my God!’ was the first word that came to my mind when I saw the North Korean anchorwoman’s black dress and mournful look,” said a government official who monitored the North Korean announcement.

“This shows a big loophole in our intelligence-gathering network on North Korea,” Kwon Seon-taek, an opposition South Korean lawmaker, told reporters.

Kwon Young-se, a ruling party legislator and head of the intelligence committee at the National Assembly, said the National Intelligence Service, the main government spy agency, appeared to have been caught off guard by the North Korean announcement. “We will hold them responsible,” he said.

Mark Landler reported from Washington, and Choe Sang-Hun from Seoul, South Korea. David E. Sanger contributed reporting from Washington.

DECEMBER – Week #2: “Jon Huntsman, trying to thread a political needle”

By

PETERBOROUGH, N.H.

Since all things seem possible in the Republican presidential contest, is there another turn coming that could benefit Jon Huntsman?

That would be the former Utah governor who is polling nationally at 3.2 percent, according to Wednesday’s Real Clear Politics average of national polls, slightly behind Rick Santorum. Huntsman is occasionally touted by the sort of commentators who would never go near a Republican primary ballot box; they like his reasonable, genial and intelligent tone. Many conservatives, on the other hand, see those traits as the marks of a dreaded liberalism.

Yet if Huntsman runs dead last nationally among the major candidates, he is behind only Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul in New Hampshire, and he was in double digits in two recent polls. Huntsman has done so many events in this state that he and Michael Levoff, his New Hampshire communications director, disagree on the exact count. Before Huntsman spoke at a Rotary Club meeting at the Monadnock Country Club here on Monday, Levoff said it was the governor’s 121st event; in his speech, Huntsman said it was his 119th.

A Republican contest that is so discombobulated must have another spectacular twist or two in it, and a pair of voters who joined several dozen people in the cozy, knotty-pine clubhouse embodied the precise combination that Huntsman will need to pull off a Granite State miracle.

George Kurzon, an 82-year-old retired physician, said his priority this year is to keep the country from “going down the road to socialism.” Many voters who feel that way have shifted toward Gingrich, but Kurzon thinks Huntsman is the one Republican who might actually win the general election. “He’s qualified, he’s been a governor, he’s been an ambassador,” Kurzon said. “He’s talking in a rational way about solving our problems. He doesn’t sound like an ideologue.”

Nearby was Gordon Hale, a retired accountant and the kind of independent Huntsman needs to cajole into picking up a Republican ballot on Jan. 10. New Hampshire allows those registered as independents to vote in either party’s primary, which helped John McCain win here in 2000 and again in 2008. Hale supported Barack Obama in the 2008 election and will “probably” do so again next year. But he expects to vote in the Republican primary for Huntsman “because he’s the only one who makes any sense to me, and he’d give Obama some good competition.”

Two voters do not a trend make, but the logic behind their decision-making is the logic of a Huntsman breakthrough: He needs Republicans to see him as a winner (and a real conservative) and independents to view him as the sane guy in a preposterous crowd (and a moderate). As Romney and Gingrich step up their assaults on each other, voters might get sick of both of them. Huntsman makes the rounds reminding them there’s another option.

Here’s the underlying secret of the campaign: Jon Huntsman is far more conservative than moderates and conservatives realize. Yes, President Obama appointed him as ambassador to China, and when Dennis Allen, the Peterborough Rotary’s president-elect, introduced Huntsman, he mentioned that his earlier diplomatic posts came from George H.W. and George W. Bush, while omitting the name of the president who gave him the China job.

But, especially on the core economic issues, Huntsman is solidly right of center. In his talk here, he noted that he “embraced” Rep. Paul Ryan’s budget as “a very aggressive approach” to the deficit. He endorsed term limits for members of Congress, promised “no more bailouts,” condemned “Obamacare” and the Dodd-Frank financial overhaul, and criticized the “regulatory barriers” to business. He also boasted of praise he has won from the Wall Street Journal’s editorial page, the arbiter of conservative economic orthodoxy these days. Yet there was just enough heterodoxy for the moderates. Huntsman wants to break up the biggest banks and put an end to the idea of “too big to fail.” He wants our troops out of Afghanistan. And he spoke longingly of national unity, mourning that the country was “more divided than at any point in history.”

For the moment, few outside Huntsman’s circle would make a $10,000 bet on his winning the nomination. His chances hang on moderates still liking his demeanor and conservatives realizing, as his wife, Mary Kaye, told one voter here, that “he’s the most consistently conservative of all of them.” It’s a bank shot, but in a campaign that has seen Herman Cain’s crowds cheering a trio of nines, stranger things have already happened.

Published in: 2012 Election, A Challenge, Opinion, Political Parties, Politics, Polls on December 15, 2011 at7:20 AM Comments (0)

DECEMBER – Week #2: “Ryan to announce plan to keep federally funded Medicare”

By

House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan, who has been castigated by Democrats and hailed by Republicans for his plan to privatize Medicare, will on Thursday unveil a new approach that would preserve the 46-year-old federal health program in its current form.

Working with Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), the Wisconsin Republican is developing a framework that would keep government-run Medicare as an option for new retirees starting in 2022, along with a variety of private plans.

Seniors would still receive a set amount of money from the government to buy insurance, as they would under the Medicare proposal Ryan included in the budget blueprint that passed the House last year. But the new approach would let that subsidy, known as premium support, rise or fall along with the actual cost of the policies — creating more protection for seniors and saving potentially far less in the budget.

The unusual alliance between Ryan and Wyden could complicate election-year politics for both parties on an explosive issue. In recent days, GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney has embraced the Ryan privatization plan, and frontrunner Newt Gingrich has offered qualified support. Democrats, meanwhile, have been gearing up to challenge the GOP across the board on the issue, accusing Republicans of pushing to “end the Medicare guarantee.”

Ryan and Wyden said in an interview Tuesday that they joined forces in hopes of lifting the Medicare debate above the divisive political rhetoric and forging a genuine compromise that could save the program along with the government’s solvency.

“We want to demonstrate that there is an emerging consensus developing on how to preserve Medicare. We want to move that consensus forward,” Ryan said. “This program’s got to be reformed to be saved. The country’s at stake.”

Wyden said that adding traditional Medicare to Ryan’s premium support plan combines the best ideas of both parties, creating “the opportunity for progressives and conservatives to come together and address the real challenges” of the federal entitlement program: rising health costs and an aging population.

“There’s a lot to work with here in terms of trying to find common ground,” Wyden said. “This doesn’t end Medicare as we know it. People can go to bed knowing that traditional Medicare will be there for them for all time.”

Ryan and Wyden, a longtime advocate for seniors, plan to release their proposal at a breakfast Thursday morning at the Bipartisan Policy Center, one of many players in the yearlong debate over the national debt. The center formed its own debt-reduction committee, chaired by former Sen. Pete Domenici (R-N.M.) and former Clinton budget director Alice Rivlin, who has also worked with Ryan on his premium support approach to Medicare.

The approach Ryan and Wyden have taken closely parallels that advocated by Rivlin. It would not only preserve Medicare but would improve it by adding catastrophic coverage, with a cap on out-of-pocket costs. And where Ryan’s plan would have tied the amount of the government subsidy to inflation — regardless of the cost of the policies — the two senators adopted Rivlin’s recommendation to let the subsidies grow slightly faster than the overall economy.

That’s the same standard for Medicare spending set last year by President Obama’s health legislation.

Ryan and Wyden acknowledged that their approach might produce no more savings than under current law. But they said that by forcing private insurers to bid to provide Medicare coverage and encouraging beneficiaries to choose the plan with the lowest costs, the measure could drive costs down lower than the price controls than the current law would impose on the private sector.

If costs continued to rise nonetheless, beneficiaries would not have to bear the burden. Instead, Congress would be required to take further action.

In a working paper to be presented Thursday, Ryan and Wyden both stressed their commitment to providing government health coverage for those over 65 — a stark contrast to the views of some in the GOP presidential field who have questioned the constitutionality of Medicare.

“As representatives of hard-working Americans in Oregon and Southern Wisconsin, we realize our absolute responsibility to preserve the Medicare guarantee of affordable, accessible health care for every one of the nation’s seniors for decades to come,” the senators wrote. “We are two Members of Congress who firmly believe in the iron-clad guarantee of the Medicare program, and this belief has informed our understanding of the unacceptable risk to our seniors’ health and retirement security if we do not come together as a country and take action to save and strengthen Medicare.”

The pair said they would not draft legislation. With Congress at an impasse over more deadline-urgent matters, such as the extension of a temporary a payroll tax cut, Ryan said he does not expect action on major issues such as Medicare until a new Congress is seated in 2013.

“We’re not at the political nexis where we’re going to be legislating,”Ryan said. “There’s no point in drafting legislation if you know it’s not going to pass.”

The plan also makes no mention of the Affordable Care Act, commonly known as Obamacare, which Ryan and other Republicans have vowed to repeal.

“We’re basically saying we’re not going to debate the ACA,” Wyden said. “That will drive everybody off into their corners.”

Published in: 2012 Election, A Challenge, Economics, Health Care, Political Parties on December 14, 2011 at2:47 PM Comments (0)

DECEMBER – Week #2: “The presidential auction of 2012″

By

The conservative radio host Michael Savage this week presented an unusual offer to Newt Gingrich.

“Newt Gingrich is unelectable,” Savage said of the improbable new front-runner for the Republican presidential nomination. “Therefore, I am offering Newt Gingrich 1 million dollars to drop out of the presidential race for the sake of the nation.”

A million bucks? Come on, man.

Gingrich got $1.6 million being a lobbyi—, er, historian for Freddie Mac. He gets $60,000 a pop for speeches, by his own boastful account. He reportedly has generated $100 million in revenues by trading on his Washington connections.

Offering him $1 million to drop out of the presidential race is the political equivalent of Dr. Evil’s plan to hold the world hostage for — ONE MILLION DOLLARS!

But if Savage was a few zeros short on Gingrich’s price tag, his instincts were correct: Gingrich and his rivals are most definitely for sale. The Republican nominating contest resembles nothing so much as a Christie’s wine auction, as candidates accept, and toss about, dollar figures beyond the comprehension of the people they would serve.

“Tell ya what. Ten thousand bucks? Ten-thousand-dollar bet?” Mitt Romney proposed to Rick Perry in his now-infamous attempt at Saturday’s debate to resolve a dispute over health care.

Criticized for that high wager, Romney went on Fox News to say that Gingrich should return the $1.6 million from Freddie Mac. That led Gingrich, just days into his vow to stay “relentlessly positive,” to suggest that Romney should “give back all the money he’s earned on bankrupting companies and laying off employees.”

The positive front-runner also took a gratuitous pop at Perry, saying of the longtime public servant: “I couldn’t imagine he could cover a bet like that.”

To most Americans, lacking a spare $10,000 wouldn’t be considered a character flaw. But Gingrich is different: a member of Donald Trump’s Trump National Golf Club, he boasted on the campaign trail recently that he didn’t have to be a lobbyist because he was getting rich on the celebrity speaking circuit.

Romney can’t exploit Gingrich’s $100 million in revenues, nor his $500,000 line of credit at Tiffany’s, because his own net worth is $264 million and his own speeches bring in up to $68,000. If corporations are people, as Romney says, he is a man among boys — and his vast campaign stash is the main reason he still has a good chance to beat Gingrich.

President Obama (worth: as much as $11 million) would no doubt enjoy taking on either man, although the fun will be tempered by his own struggle to bring in $1 billion for his campaign, up from $750 million last time. For now, the task of taking on the plutocrats falls to GOP candidate Jon Huntsman, whose new Web site, www.10kbet.com, features a photo of Romney and his Bain Capital colleagues playing with cash.

For Huntsman to pursue this attack is a bit rich (his net worth: between $16 million and $71 million). But the problem is not the candidates’ net worth or their campaign cash. It’s the impression they are giving that corporate interests are receiving something in exchange for the worth they’re helping to build and the cash they’re providing.

Even the relative pauper Perry got in trouble earlier in the campaign for supporting mandatory HPV vaccination after the vaccine’s maker, Merck, gave money to his campaign. “If you’re saying that I can be bought for $5,000, I’m offended,” he said.

But could he be bought for the $28,000 he actually got from Merck? And could the billions now regularly generated in campaign contributions — nearly $4 billion in the 2010 elections alone — have something to do with all the goodies for pet corporations? Though it’s difficult to trace specific government actions to contributions, there is no doubt in the aggregate that corporate interests can buy candidates for a modest investment.

Compared to $4 billion, Michael Savage’s $1 million won’t buy much: maybe a new, better-fitting suit for Ron Paul, a nice Christmas present for Herman Cain’s wife or enough cushion so that Sarah Palin doesn’t need to pitch another reality show.

In recent days, the gadfly Sen. Bernie Sanders, a Vermont independent, proposed a way out of this mess: a constitutional amendment that would outlaw corporate campaign contributions, overturning the Supreme Court’s Citizens United decision.

Ten thousand bucks says the idea goes nowhere.

danamilbank@washpost.com

DECEMBER – Week #2: “President Obama’s five paths to re-election”

On Tuesday morning, the braintrust of President Obama’s 2012 re-election campaign gathered a select handful of reporters to make a simple case: the incumbent has a number of different paths — five, to be exact — he can follow to win the 270 electoral votes necessary to secure a second term.

Since we’ve spent lots and lots of time breaking down the electoral map — and making the case that Obama is stronger than his job approval ratings indicate — we thought it might be fun to look at each of the paths laid out by his team to see how likely each might be.

We do that below. One important point before we start: The Obama team used as its baseline for each of these five scenarios the 246 electoral votes that Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry (D) won in his 2004 loss to President George W. Bush. That means that Obama could lose none of the states he and Kerry carried in 2004 and 2008 — including swing states like New Hampshire and Wisconsin — and have the numbers add up. The paths are ranked from most likely to least likely for Obama.

1. Florida path: If Obama wins the 29 electoral votes in Florida, he’s at 275 and a winner. Florida moved hard to Republicans in 2010 — the party elected Gov. Rick Scott and Sen. Marco Rubio — but there are signs that the Sunshine State electorate is trending back to the ideological middle. Scott is among the least popular governors in the country, which won’t help the eventual GOP presidential nominee, and Florida has a large Hispanic community that should vote overwhelmingly for Obama. But if the GOP nominee decides to put Rubio on the ticket as the vice presidential pick, that could complicate this path for Obama.

2. West Path: This scenario requires Obama to sweep Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada and then also take Iowa, where he won overwhelmingly in 2008 but Kerry lost narrowly in 2004. (Add those four states up, and Obama is at 272 electoral votes.) Democrats have had a number of successes in the southwest of late, and each of the trio of states has two communities where Obama tends to do very well: Hispanics and young people. Of the three, New Mexico is the likeliest to go to for Obama, and Colorado, which still has large pockets of conservatism, is the toughest. Iowa seems likely to go Obama’s way, although it will be a far tougher fight than it was in 2008.

3. Midwest path: The industrial Midwest has turned against Democrats in a major way since Obama carried every state in the so-called Rust Belt three years ago. But, if Obama wins only Ohio and Iowa, he’s at 270 electoral votes and a winner — albeit by the thinnest margin possible.

As we mentioned above, Iowa seems likely to go for Obama, but Ohio is a much tougher state to win. The state is populated by older, white voters who have traditionally been the demographic group most resistant to Obama.

Ohio favored Republicans in 2010, but Democrats are hoping Gov. John Kasich’s (R) aggressive conservative agenda — including his now-repealed attempt to drastically limit public employee collective bargaining rights — proved to Buckeye State voters that the GOP agenda is too radical for them.

Still, if this is an economic referendum on Obama nationwide, winning Ohio — which had 9 percent unemployment in October — will be tough.

4. South path: In 2008, Obama was the first Democrat to carry North Carolina since 1976 and to win in Virginia since 1964. If he repeats that feat in 2012, he gets to 274 electoral votes.

Democrats put the 2012 Democratic National Convention in Charlotte as a sign of his commitment to winning the Tarheel State, and the large number of young and well-educated voters helps his cause — especially when combined with the significant minority population in the state. But, North Carolina has conservative tendencies and Democrats will need to minimize their losses in the more rural parts of the state to keep it close.

Virginia will be a battle of the suburbs and exurbs in Northern Virginia. In recent elections, Democrats’ winning formula is to run up the score in the close-in suburbs to Washington, D.C., fight to even in the rapidly growing exurbs and not lose too badly everywhere else. The 2009 and 2011 statewide elections in the Commonwealth both favored Republicans — the former far more than the latter — which raises questions about whether Democrats’ formula doesn’t add up anymore.

5. Expansion path: Three years ago, Democrats were confident that they would have won Arizona had Republicans not nominated homestate Sen. John McCain. And, with no prospect of an Arizonan on the national ticket this time around — sorry Jan Brewer — the Obama team sees the possibility of turning Arizona blue.

But, the politics of immigration may make that an impossibility. When Brewer signed the nation’s most stringent immigration bill into law in 2010, she effectively ended Democrats’ hopes of defeating her as she became a hero to Republicans and to the many conservative-minded independents in the state.

Democrats are drawn to the possibility that the Arizona immigration bill will fire up the state’s large Hispanic community, and they’re probably right. But to win in Arizona, Obama needs to figure out how to win over some significant chunk of the white vote. And that seems very unlikely at the moment.

DECEMBER – Week #2: “Ron Paul is Mitt Romney’s best (Iowa) friend”

By ,

Want to know the key to former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney winding up as the Republican presidential nominee? Two words: Ron Paul.

The Texas Congressman’s strength in Iowa — there is a legitimate case to be made that he will win the Jan. 3 caucuses but more on that later — coupled with his willingness to go after frontrunning former House Speaker Newt Gingrich in often quite personal terms make him perhaps the critical x-factor in Romney’s winning calculus.

Here’s why.Winning in Iowa is — and always was — going to be a very heavy lift for Romney.

His problem in the state this time around is very similar to his problem four years ago. Socially conservative evangelicals simply don’t like or trust Romney — whether that’s because of past flip flops on issues like abortion and gay marriage or because of his Mormon faith is up for debate — and will almost certainly vote for the most viable alternative candidate.

Gingrich is clearly that candidate (although we continue to believe Texas Gov. Rick Perry has the potential to make a late run for that vote) at the moment. And, a win in Iowa would almost certainly catapult Gingrich into contention in New Hampshire, a state where Romney absolutely must win in order to preserve his path the the nomination.

Enter Paul, who may well be the only candidate who can beat Gingrich in Iowa at this point.

While Gingrich is currently leading the Iowa pack, there is a widespread expectation that he will underperform his poll numbers due to the lack of anything close to a first-class organization, and the likelihood that he will take heavy incoming from his rivals over the next three weeks.

Paul has already begun that onslaught, airing an ad in Iowa that paints Gingrich as a serial hypocrite who doesn’t really believe in the conservative principles he is espousing.

And, Paul’s distaste toward Gingrich seems to go beyond the political and into the personal. (Remember that Paul served under Gingrich when the latter was Speaker in the mid 1990s).

Two examples: 1) Asked about running such a tough ad on Gingrich, Paul responded: “I have to expose him for what he’s been doing over the years.” WHAM. 2) In Saturday night’s Iowa debate, Paul was asked again about his attacks on Gingrich and said: “Well, he’s been on different positions, you know, on so many issues. You know, single payer– he’s taken some positions that are not conservative.” POW.

If Paul and Romney — two of the best funded candidates in the Iowa field — are both going full bore at Gingrich on television in the final three weeks of the race, it will make it far more difficult for the former House Speaker to maintain his current elevated standing in the Hawkeye State.

But it’s not just in helping drag Gingrich’s numbers down in Iowa where Paul can help Romney.

Paul is widely regarded as the best organized candidate in the state. He also has the most ardent supporters. Those two factors have convinced many seasoned Republican operatives that the Iowa race is really a two-person race not between Gingrich and Romney but between Gingrich and Paul.

A Paul victory in Iowa would be a dream come true for Romney. Why? Because Paul, like former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee in 2008, has far less obvious appeal in the states beyond Iowa and would likely struggle to build his caucus victory into a broader national campaign.

Simply put: The less Iowa matters, the better for Team Romney. And a Paul victory there, while intriguing and a case study for political scientists for years to come, would almost certainly mean that the real race for the nomination begins a week later in New Hampshire.

The matchup to watch in Iowa then isn’t Newt vs Mitt. It’s Newt vs Ron. Or so Mitt hopes.

DECEMBER – Week #2: “Gingrich bashes, employs media to get ahead”

Was cash-poor but made news

By Seth McLaughlin

Mugshot

Newt Gingrich has made a point of ridiculing the press during his presidential campaign, but he actually owes the media a debt of gratitude. Without the free coverage he has received, the money-challenged Gingrich campaign might never have gotten off the ground.

“Free media propelled Herman Cain from nowhere to somewhere and back again. And it resurrected Newt from the ashes,” said Mark McKinnon, vice chairman of Public Strategies Inc., who worked as a media adviser to the presidential candidacies of George W. Bush and John McCain.

Odds are, after stumbling badly out of the gate last summer, Mr. Gingrich would be swimming in a sea of red by now, as his last campaign finance report showed him nearly $1.2 million in debt.

But less than a month before the Iowa caucuses, with polls making him the GOP front-runner nationwide and in three of the first four contest states, the Gingrich campaign says it is raking in cash – roughly $4 million over the first half of the fourth quarter of the campaign filing period.

“There were days in August when we raised $10,000 overnight and we’d be very excited about it,” Gingrich spokesman R.C. Hammond said in an interview this month. “Now we see $10,000 an hour.”

To get that cash spigot flowing, the Georgia Republican made himself a fixture on cable and broadcast television news networks and on the radio talk show circuit. He also took part in a dozen debates – including the nationally televised debate in Des Moines, Iowa, on Saturday that attracted almost 7.6 million viewers, making it the most watched event so far of the presidential campaign season.

“Newt Gingrich clearly has benefited from the free media,” said Julian E. Zelizer, a professor of history and public affairs at Princeton University. “He took what was an improbable candidacy to being a potential front-runner. He kind of proved himself, or started to remake himself, through this free exposure more than anything else.”

He also has been creative with his appearances, holding two Lincoln-Douglas-style “debates” with Mr. Cain and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. He is just one of two candidates to accept an invitation to a debate moderated by billionaire Donald Trump.

It’s a low-cost media strategy that is paying off big for the former House speaker, said Mo Elleithee, a Democratic campaign strategist.

“Presidential campaigns are the one campaign where most people actually get most of their information from free media or earned media, so it becomes increasingly important in a presidential campaign,” Mr. Elleithee said.

Mr. Gingrich has used his air time to deflect criticism from his rivals and hammer the policies of President Obama.

On the debate stage, Mr. Gingrich has developed a reputation for pooh-poohing moderators for “absurd” or “gotcha” questions, as well as their attempts to maximize the “bickering” between candidates.

The news media, he has said, doesn’t have “a clue about history” and doesn’t report “accurately how the economy works.”

Mr. Elleithee said it is ironic that Mr. Gingrich has spent so much time knocking the press.

“Instead of beating up on the press, Gingrich ought to be sending them thank-you notes,” Mr. Elleithee said.

Mr. Gingrich still lags well behind Mitt Romney and Rick Perry in fundraising. Both men entered the final quarter of the year with more than $14 million in their campaign coffers and have recently begun dumping funds into paid advertisements in Iowa and New Hampshire.

That might not matter in this GOP showdown, Mr. McKinnon said.

“Free media absolutely overwhelms paid advertising in presidential campaigns,” Mr. McKinnon said. Story lines and agendas, he said, are set by the news media and debates. “People pay close attention to presidential contests in a way they don’t to any other elections. They are not easily persuaded by paid messages. So, just because you’ve got a lot of money, or don’t have any money, doesn’t mean you are necessarily in or out of the game in a presidential contest.”

Mr. Gingrich is apparently banking on that notion.

In a private meeting with dozens of conservative leaders in Northern Virginia last week, Mr. Gingrich was asked about his plans for beating Mr. Obama, who raised more than $700 million in his first presidential campaign.

According to those in attendance, he said he would follow the president around speech-by-speech, replying with speeches of his own and demanding that Mr. Obama face him in Lincoln-Douglas debates – a challenge that has become a crowd-pleasing staple of the Gingrich stump speech.

Mr. Obama, the ever-confident former speaker says, can even use a teleprompter.

DECEMBER – Week #2: “America’s Missing Middle”

The presidential race one year out:
America’s missing middle  – The coming presidential election badly needs a shot of centrist pragmatism
IT IS a year until Americans go to the polls, on November 6th 2012, to decide whether Barack Obama deserves another term. In January the Republicans start voting in their primaries, with the favourite, Mitt Romney, a former governor of Massachusetts, facing fading competition from Herman Cain, a pizza tycoon, and Rick Perry, the governor of Texas. Already American politics has succumbed to election paralysis, with neither party interested in bipartisan solutions.
This would be a problem at the best of times; and these times are very far from that. Strikingly, by about three to one, Americans feel their country is on the wrong track. America’s sovereign debt has been downgraded. Unemployment remains stubbornly above 9%, with the long-term unemployed making up the largest proportion of the jobless since records began in 1948. As the superpower’s clout seems to ebb towards Asia, the world’s most consistently inventive and optimistic country has lost its mojo.
Some of this distress was inevitable. Whatever the country’s leaders did in Washington, the credit crunch was always going to cause a lot of suffering. Rising inequality, unfunded pensions and bad schools are not new problems. But politics, far from offering a remedy, is now adding to the national angst. Eight out of ten Americans mistrust their government. There is a sense that their political system, like their economy, has been skewed to favour the few, not the many.
The European Union may seem the epitome of political dysfunction, but America has been running it close. All this year the deadlock between the Republicans in Congress and Mr Obama has meant that precious little serious legislation has been passed. The president’s jobs
bill is stuck; the House of Representatives’ budget plans have been scuppered by the Democrat-controlled Senate. At the end of this year temporary tax cuts and other measures, worth around 2% of GDP, are set to expire—which could push America back into recession.

 

Surrender to extremists
On the face of it, neither side has gained from this stand-off. Only 45% of Americans approve of Mr Obama’s performance. The approval rating for Congress dropped to 9% in one recent poll. A plurality of Americans call themselves independents, and on the most divisive economic argument—how to solve the budget mess—two in three of them back a combination of spending cuts and tax rises. But politics is being driven by extremists who reject any such compromise (see article (http://www.economist.com/node/21536603) ).
The right is mostly to blame. Ronald Reagan, a divorcee who did little for the pro-life lobby and raised taxes when he had to, would never be nominated today. Mr Romney, like all the Republican presidential candidates, recently pledged to reject tax rises, even as part of a deal where spending cuts would be ten times bigger. Mr Cain surged briefly to the front of the pack because of a plan that would cut personal taxes to 9% (see Lexington (http://www.economist.com/node/21536610) ); Mr Perry lost support for wanting to educate the children of illegal immigrants. Meanwhile, in Congress, the few remaining pragmatic Republican centrists, like Senator Richard Lugar, are being hunted down by tea-party activists.
Mr Obama has tried harder to compromise. But he foolishly failed to embrace a long-term budget solution put forward by the bipartisan Simpson-Bowles commission, which he himself appointed. Ever since the furore over the debt ceiling this summer, he has “pivoted” to the left, dabbling in class war, promising his supporters that the budget can be solved by taxing “millionaires and billionaires”. He is also trying to issue more executive orders, to bypass Congress (see article (http://www.economist.com/node/21536593) ).
The divisiveness is hardly new, but it is increasingly structural. As the battle for billions of campaign dollars heats up, neither side dares grant the other any modicum of success, or risk the ire of its donors by appearing to compromise. Gerrymandered districts mean that most congressmen fear their partisans in the primaries more than their opponents in the general election. Ever more divisive media feed the activists’ prejudices. So, at worst, a bitter contest could merely reinforce the gridlock, with a re-elected, more leftish Comrade Obama pitted against a still more intransigent Republican Congress.
Wishing on a star
In other countries such a huge gap in the middle would see the creation of a third party to represent the alienated majority. Imagine a presidential candidate next year who spelled out the need for deep future cuts in spending on entitlements and defence, as well as the need to raise some revenue (largely by getting rid of deductions); who explained that the pain would be applied only after the recovery was solidly in place; who avoided class or culture wars; who discussed school reform without fear of the Democrats’ paymasters in the teachers’ unions. Better still, imagine a new centrist block in Congress, which might give that candidate (or for that matter a President Obama or Romney) something to work with in 2013.
And so the fantasy continues, for that is sadly what it is. Even if the money were forthcoming,
there are all sorts of institutional barriers, especially to starting new parties, and the record of even very well-heeled third-party presidential candidates is bleak. Instead, the middle will have to be recreated from what is already there.
The immediate, rather slim, chance is of a grand bargain on the budget emerging out of a congressional “supercommittee” set up after the debt-ceiling fiasco. If it were to embrace a centrist option, politics over the next year would be considerably more civilised. But it too appears deadlocked, with the Republicans once again ruling out tax increases of any kind.
So, back to the campaign. It is not entirely without hope. You can win the White House only by winning that disenfranchised middle. For Mr Romney and his party the danger is clear: the Republicans’ intolerant obstructionism could drive independents away. But Mr Obama also has a lot to prove. Why re-elect a man who has failed to unite Americans? Now should surely be the time for the president to seize the centre ground. Otherwise, in a year’s time he may well see his own name added to the rolls of those who have lost their job.

Published in: 2012 Election, A MUST READ, Economics, Opinion, Political Parties, Politics, Polls on December 12, 2011 at9:40 AM Comments (0)

DECEMBER – Week #2: “How much does organization really matter in Iowa?”

By ,

Is organization overrated?

Every time you turn on cable news or read a blog, you can’t help but hear talk about how important it is for a presidential candidate to have a large and well-funded political organization to win the all-important Iowa caucuses.

And yet, former House speaker Newt Gingrich, the Iowa front-runner with just 22 days left before the caucuses, has — at best — a spartan political organization in the state. And four years ago, former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee beat out his far more professionally organized rivals to claim victory in the Hawkeye State.

“Excitement and intensity are more valuable for a campaign and a strong message and candidate are more likely to get voters out on a cold winter’s night than a strong organization,” said Terry Nelson, a longtime Republican operative and Iowa native. “Sometimes people forget that organization is just mechanics.”

With the growth of online organizing, the old measures of how effective an operation is or the time it takes to build one could be faulty.

“It’s cheaper, easier and faster to organize and connect voters than ever before, and you need less infrastructure to do it,” said Phil Musser, a onetime senior adviser to the presidential campaign of former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty.

Huckabee’s win four years ago in Iowa is indicative of how rapidly the definition of an effective organization is changing. Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney spent hundreds of hours and more than $10 million in the state, building one of the best traditional Iowa organizations in recent memory.

And yet, it was Huckabee who soared to victory — boosted by the momentum surrounding his campaign among Iowa’s social conservatives and a message (“I’m not a traditional politician”) that resonated. To call Huckabee’s organization a patchwork — it consisted primarily of evangelical churchgoers and home-schooling advocates — would be kind.

“Too often, people will confuse organization with the number of paid staff and consultants a campaign has,” said Tim Albrecht, the communications director for Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad and a member of Romney’s 2008 campaign in the state.

Albrecht added that the “organic” organization Huckabee built in the last presidential campaign appears to be the model for Gingrich this time around.

While Gingrich’s organization “does not have the sheer numbers or passion of the voters Huckabee had, they are veteran caucus-goers who won’t need hand-holding or training when it comes to running their caucus,” he said.

(Gingrich has a few high-profile endorsers in Iowa, including state Rep. Linda Upmeyer and former congressman Greg Ganske, but until recently he didn’t have the money to finance a top-tier organization.)

Although organization — at least as it is traditionally been defined — may be overrated, it still matters, particularly when the margin of victory or defeat is slim.

Rep. Ron Paul is running well behind Gingrich in the slew of recent Iowa polls, but longtime Hawkeye State observers insist that the Texan’s emphasis on organization-building means he will perform more strongly on Jan. 3 than he does in such pre-caucus surveys.

Paul “is running the most traditional of grass-roots-oriented Iowa caucus campaigns, and it is paying big dividends,” said one senior Iowa operative who spoke on the condition of anonymity to candidly assess the field. “He is drawing enormous crowds and presumably signing up new supporters and caucus-goers through a well-organized effort.”

The challenge for Gingrich in the final three weeks of the Iowa campaign is to try to marry the energy and momentum he has with some semblance of the organization that Huckabee built (or, more accurately, had built for him) in 2008.

“Usually when momentum catches up to a lack of organization, the campaign collapses,” said Ed Rollins, who managed the presidential campaign of Rep. Michele Bachmann (Minn.) for a while this year. “Newt may get far enough along with his abilities to win early and build his organization in February and beyond.”

DECEMBER – Week #1: Presidential Pardons

ProPublica review of pardons in past decade shows process heavily favored whites

By Dafna Linzer and Jennifer LaFleur, Published: December 3

White criminals seeking presidential pardons over the past decade have been nearly four times as likely to succeed as minorities, a ProPublica examination has found.

Blacks have had the poorest chance of receiving the president’s ultimate act of mercy, according to an analysis of previously unreleased records and related data.

Current and former officials at the White House and Justice Department said they were surprised and dismayed by the racial disparities, which persist even when factors such as the type of crime and sentence are considered.

“I’m just astounded by those numbers,” said Roger Adams, who served as head of the Justice Department’s pardons office from 1998 to 2008. He said he could think of nothing in the office’s practices that would have skewed the recommendations. “I can recall several African Americans getting pardons.’’

The review of applications for pardons is conducted almost entirely in secret, with the government releasing scant information about those it rejects.

ProPublica’s review examined what happened after President George W. Bush decided at the beginning of his first term to rely almost entirely on the recommendations made by career lawyers in the Office of the Pardon Attorney.

The office was given wide latitude to apply subjective standards, including judgments about the “attitude” and the marital and financial stability of applicants. No two pardon cases match up perfectly, but records reveal repeated instances in which white applicants won pardons with transgressions on their records similar to those of blacks and other minorities who were denied.

Senior aides in the Bush White House say the president had hoped to take politics out of the process and avoid a repetition of the Marc Rich scandal, in which the fugitive financier won an eleventh-hour pardon tainted by his ex-wife’s donations to Democratic causes and the Clinton Presidential Library.

Justice Department officials said in a statement Friday that the pardon process takes into account many factors that cannot be statistically measured, such as an applicant’s candor and level of remorse.

“Nonetheless, we take the concerns seriously,” the statement said. “We will continue to evaluate the statistical analysis and, of course, are always working to improve the clemency process and ensure that every applicant gets a fair, merit-based evaluation.”

Bush followed the recommendations of the pardons office in nearly every case, the aides said. The results, spread among hundreds of cases over eight years, heavily favored whites. President Obama — who has pardoned 22 people, two of them minorities — has continued the practice of relying on the pardons office.

“President Obama takes his constitutional power to grant clemency very seriously,” said Matt Lehrich, a White House spokesman. “Race has no place in the evaluation of clemency evaluations, and the White House does not consider or even receive information on the race of applicants.”

The president’s power to pardon is enshrined in the Constitution. It is an act of forgiveness for a federal crime. It does not wipe away the conviction, but it does restore a person’s full rights to vote, possess firearms and serve on federal juries. It allows individuals to obtain licensing and business permits and removes barriers to certain career opportunities and adoptions.

To assess how the pardons office selects candidates for pardons, ProPublica interviewed key officials, obtained access to thousands of pages of internal documents and used statistical tests to measure the effects of race and other factors on the outcome.

From 2001 to 2008, Bush issued decisions in 1,918 pardon cases sent to him by the Justice Department, most involving nonviolent drug or financial crimes. He pardoned 189 people — all but 13 of whom were white. Seven pardons went to blacks, four to Hispanics, one to an Asian and one to a Native American.

Fred Fielding, who served as Bush’s White House counsel, said the racial disparity “is very troubling to me and will be to [Bush], because we had no idea of the race of any applicant.”

“The names were colorblind to us,” Fielding said, “and we assumed they would be at all levels of clemency review.”

Beginning in September 2010, the Justice Department was required to make available the names of people denied pardons. Bush’s pardon decisions were selected to examine the impact of the pardons office’s recommendations over a president’s full term and to test how well the office met the president’s goal of assuring fairness in the process.

The department does not reveal race or any additional information that would identify an applicant, citing privacy grounds. To analyze pardons, ProPublica selected a random sample of nearly 500 cases decided by Bush and spent a year tracking down the age, gender, race, crime, sentence and marital status of applicants from public records and interviews.

In multiple cases, white and black pardon applicants who committed similar offenses and had comparable post-conviction records experienced opposite outcomes.

An African American woman from Little Rock, fined $3,000 for underreporting her income in 1989, was denied a pardon; a white woman from the same city who faked multiple tax returns to collect more than $25,000 in refunds got one. A black, first-time drug offender — a Vietnam veteran who got probation in South Carolina for possessing 1.1 grams of crack — was turned down. A white, fourth-time drug offender who did prison time for selling 1,050 grams of methamphetamine was pardoned.

All of the drug offenders forgiven during the Bush administration at the pardon attorney’s recommendation — 34 of them — were white.

Turning over pardons to career officials has not removed money and politics from the process, the analysis found. Justice Department documents show that nearly 200 members of Congress from both parties contacted the pardons office regarding pending cases. In multiple instances, felons and their families made campaign contributions to the lawmakers supporting their pleas. Applicants with congressional support were three times as likely to be pardoned, the statistical analysis shows.

In reviewing applicants, pardon lawyers rely on their discretion in ways that favor people who are married and who have never divorced, declared bankruptcy or taken on large amounts of debt. The intent, officials say, is to reward people who demonstrated “stability’’ after their convictions. But the effect has been to exclude large segments of society.

The ProPublica data show that applicants whose offense was older than 20 years had the best odds of a pardon. Married people, those who received probation rather than prison time, and financially stable applicants also fared better. When the effects of those factors and others were controlled using statistical methods, however, race emerged as one of the strongest predictors of a pardon.

The most striking disparity involved African Americans, who make up 38 percent of the federal prison population and have historically suffered from greater financial and marital instability. Of the nearly 500 cases in ProPublica’s sample, 12 percent of whites were pardoned, as were 10 percent of Hispanics.

None of the 62 African Americans in the random sample received a pardon. To assess the chances of black applicants, ProPublica used the sample to extrapolate the total number of black applicants and compare it with the seven blacks whom Bush pardoned. Allowing for a margin of error, this yielded a pardon rate of between 2 percent and 4 percent.

Adams, the head of the pardons office under Bush, said applicants were not penalized based on race. In fact, Adams went out of his way, he said, to help black applicants.

“People in general more and more feel that it is appropriate to give extra consideration to a member of a minority group,” he said.

Applicants are not asked about their race. But race is listed in many of the law enforcement documents collected for the application, including pre-sentence reports, rap sheets and Federal Bureau of Prisons records.

Under Justice Department regulations, Adams said, lawyers in the pardons office conduct a rigorous review of an applicant’s offense. They then examine character, reputation and post-conviction behavior — tests of what Adams termed “attitude.’’

“Is the person seeking a pardon for forgiveness or vindication?” Adams said. “Are they going to wave a flag around that says a pardon proves they didn’t do as bad as the government said?” If so, he said, “it is counted against them.”

Samuel Morison, a lawyer who worked in the pardons office for 13 years, said there is an institutional interest in preserving the convictions secured by the government’s prosecutors.

“The pardon office is not a neutral arbiter, because the Justice Department was a party to every criminal case it examines,” Morison said.

The yardsticks used by the office under Adams continue to be used under his successor, Ronald L. Rodgers, a former federal prosecutor and military judge.

Theodore B. Olson, a former solicitor general who has represented high-profile pardon applicants, said he has long been frustrated by the slow pace of the process and its lack of transparency. The Justice Department says the office has increased its efficiency, deciding cases in a little more than two years, an improvement since 2005, when the wait was twice that.

When a pardon is denied, the notice comes with no explanation.

“It just comes out of the blue,’’ Olson said. “You can’t explain to your client why, especially when you think you’ve made a strong case.”

Denise Armstead’s beauty salon sits on a busy corner in Little Rock’s west side. A big sign out front beckons customers from the largely African American neighborhood.

Armstead, who is black, became a hair stylist straight out of high school and dreamed of owning her own salon. Like many small-business owners, she kept her own receipts. An accountant filled out her tax forms.

In 1994, the federal government accused Armstead, then 35, of failing to report $32,000 in income over four years. She hired a lawyer and fought the charges, ultimately getting them reduced to a single count of under-reporting her income in 1989.

Her lawyer, a former Internal Revenue Service employee, advised that a trial would cost more than the $3,000 fine, she said. In a plea bargain, she received three years’ probation and paid the fine in installments.

In the same city, Margaret Leggett and her husband, who are white, were also accused of violating federal tax laws. In 1981, Leggett rented an apartment under a fictitious name and her husband created a fake bank account and fake Social Security numbers. They then filed for multiple tax refunds totaling more than $25,000.

Leggett pleaded guilty to conspiracy to defraud the government by making false claims. In her mid-30s, she was sentenced to three years in prison but was released after three months. Her husband paid a $5,000 fine and served 15 months in prison.

Years later, Armstead and Leggett each applied for a pardon. On paper, both were strong candidates. They had accepted responsibility in court and completed their sentences with good behavior.

Neither had any other criminal convictions. Both were active in their churches. Leggett and Armstead had both filled out lengthy applications in which they listed their crime, punishment and professional and personal history.

In April 2006, Bush followed the pardon attorney’s recommendation and approved a pardon for Leggett. A year later, Bush again followed the attorney’s advice and turned down Armstead.

Armstead had a personal reason for seeking a pardon: She had hoped to become a nurse. She was inspired to change professions while caring for her mother, who was dying of renal failure.

“I would take off work and take her to the clinic,’’ she said.

An Arkansas nursing license requires a criminal-background check. Her felony record stood as a potential obstacle, her attorney told her. He recommended she apply for a presidential pardon. She was not aware that her 2002 request had been denied until a reporter informed her this year.

According to Justice Department memos, Armstead was denied “for a four-year course of criminal conduct for which [she] failed to take responsibility.” The four years referred to the four charges of tax evasion in the original indictment against her.

Adams said that he did not remember Armstead’s case but that, in general, applicants need to show remorse for any conduct they were indicted for, not just the charges to which they pleaded guilty.

“What the person did, as opposed to what they pled guilty to, is a relevant factor in judging how honest they are,” Adams said. “This spills over to attitude.”

A former White House lawyer said he had no idea the pardons office was considering indictments rather than only convictions in their deliberations.

“I definitely didn’t know that,” said Kenneth Lee, the associate White House counsel during Bush’s second term who dealt with the pardons office. “If we knew these kinds of things, our decision making may have been different.”

Leggett lives with her husband in Hot Springs, Ark., where they own a boat repair shop. She said she did not remember why she sought the pardon.

Kenneth Stoll prosecuted both Armstead and Leggett when he was an assistant U.S. attorney in Little Rock. Stoll said he does not recall either woman. The pardons office sought a recommendation for Leggett from the prosecutors’ office after Stoll had retired. He was not asked his opinion. But, he says now, Leggett’s crime was a more significant offense.

Leggett and her husband have been married for more than 30 years. They have owned or operated nearly a dozen businesses.

Though she was divorced when she applied for a pardon, Armstead would still appear to meet the “stability” test. She said her life has remained on an even keel — she continues to operate her beauty salon and does not have excessive debts.

For applicants who appear to be solid candidates, the pardons office considers the views of prosecutors and judges. Armstead’s case never reached that stage.

But the pardons office solicited advice on Leggett — and received lukewarm answers.

The U.S. attorney’s office in Little Rock took no position, and the judge did not object to a pardon. But Leggett’s bid was opposed by a high-ranking Justice Department official. Eileen J. O’Connor, the assistant attorney general in charge of all criminal tax matters, advised the pardons office that Leggett’s application should be denied because she did not “fully admit unconditional responsibility” for her crime.

O’Connor noted that Leggett omitted from her pardon application that she had rented the apartment under a false name and made a utility deposit as part of the ruse to file false returns.

“It appears that she has attempted in her quest for a pardon to minimize her involvement in the crime and shift the blame to her husband,” O’Connor wrote.

This could have posed a serious problem for Leggett. The Justice Department explicitly states that applicants need to take personal responsibility for their crimes and show remorse.

But in this instance, pardons office lawyers appear to have accepted what Leggett’s husband said at trial, which is that he had talked his wife into participating in the scheme.

Another factor in pardon applications is whether the person has a practical need for presidential mercy.

“If a person doesn’t have a reason, it doesn’t hurt,” Adams said of the policy. “And if a person wants forgiveness, that is fine, but if the need is for licensing or business ownership or to obtain a franchise, that will help, and the office will try to push it farther.”

But that did not help Armstead.

The declared intent of the Founding Fathers was to have presidential pardon power right miscarriages of justice. Former Supreme Court chief justice William H. Rehnquist called pardons a “fail safe” against the “unalterable fact that our judicial system, like the human beings who administer it, is fallible.”

Today, the pardons office places little emphasis on trying to help those who might be innocent. Applicants who claim they were victims of unjust treatment “bear a formidable burden of persuasion,” the pardons office says on its Web site. In practice, officials say, that burden is insurmountable.

Article II of the Constitution gives presidents the authority to “grant reprieves and pardons for offenses against the United States.’’ It was among the few royal powers carried over from the British monarchy. In 1788, Alexander Hamilton wrote in Federalist No. 74 that the president would be the best “dispenser of the mercy of government.” Groups of men, he argued, were too easily swayed by popular passions.

In 1893, Grover Cleveland issued an executive order delegating the paperwork on pardons to a single office inside the Justice Department. Today, the office employs a lead pardon attorney, a deputy and four additional lawyers. They review hundreds of pardon applications a year.

Leggett and Armstead’s applications reached Washington just as this office gained more clout than it ever had.

The reason could be traced to one of President Bill Clinton’s last acts, his pardon of Marc Rich. The decision became a scandal after reports that Rich’s former wife, a big Democratic donor, gave $450,000 to the Clinton Presidential Library. In congressional hearings that followed, it emerged that Eric H. Holder Jr., then deputy attorney general, had encouraged Rich’s attorneys to apply directly to the White House.

In response, the incoming Bush administration vowed that the pardons office would vet every applicant.

The office lists on its Web site a five-point test for applicants. The first test is straightforward: Candidates must wait five years after completion of their sentences before applying.

Next, lawyers consider the “conduct, character and reputation” of applicants after they served their sentences. The third point is the need of the applicant, and the fourth is the opinion of prosecutors and judges.

The final point is acceptance of responsibility for their crimes, remorse and atonement.

Pardons office lawyers assess whether applicants lead what Adams called “stable” lives. An applicant who had been divorced would give pause. Owing excessive debt to credit card companies or banks — as many Americans do — could also be a red flag.

“A person in debt is always in some risk of doing something inappropriate to get out of it,” Adams said. “It’s only natural for the office to be a little cautious.”

A review of pardons cases found that some applicants were rejected because they had filed for bankruptcy in the years after their conviction or were unemployed, a situation that is not unusual for convicted criminals, who often have trouble rebuilding their lives.

But Bush pardoned white applicants who had filed for bankruptcies, had driven drunk or had illegally possessed firearms. Two successful applicants lied to the FBI during the background checks that are part of the application process.

By Bush’s second term, it was clear that putting decisions in the hands of the pardons office had dramatically slowed the flow of pardons. Elected as a “compassionate conservative,” Bush was on pace to become the least-forgiving two-term president in history.

In 2006, White House Counsel Harriet Miers became so frustrated with the paucity of recommended candidates that she met with Adams and his boss, Deputy Attorney General Paul McNulty.

Adams said he told Miers that if she wanted more recommendations, he would need more staff. Adams said he did not get any extra help. Nothing changed.

“It became very frustrating, because we repeatedly asked the office for more favorable recommendations for the president to consider,” said Fielding, who was Bush’s last White House counsel. “But all we got were more recommendations for denials.”

In 2007, the pardons office was hit with its own scandal.

Adams had opposed a pardon for Chibueze Okorie, a Nigerian-born minister beloved by his Brooklyn church. Okorie faced deportation because of a 1992 conviction for possessing heroin with intent to distribute.

“This might sound racist,” Adams told colleagues, according to a report from the Justice Department’s inspector general, but Okorie is “about as honest as you could expect for a Nigerian. Unfortunately, that’s not very honest.”

When asked by investigators in the inspector general’s office to explain his remarks, Adams said that Ni­ger­ian immigrants “commit more crimes than other people” and that an applicant’s nationality is “an important consideration” in pardons, according to the report. “It’s one the White House wants to know about,” Adams told investigators.

The inspector general’s office disagreed.

“We believe that Adams’ comments — and his use of nationality in the decision-making process — were inappropriate,” the report concluded. “We were extremely troubled by Adams’ belief that an applicant’s ‘ethnic background’ was something that should be an ‘important consideration’ in a pardon decision.”

Adams said his comments about Okorie were focused on his ethnicity, not his race, and were taken out of context by the inspector general’s office.

Adams left his post and retired. He was replaced in April 2008 by Rodgers, a former military judge who had prosecuted major drug crimes for the Justice Department’s criminal division. Shortly after taking over, Rodgers hired the office’s first African American staff attorney.

As the Bush presidency drew to a close, the inability to grant more pardons continued to vex White House officials. Throughout 2008, the White House sent e-mails to the pardons office asking for more candidates. White House lawyers repeatedly asked the office to reconsider cases in which it had recommended denials.

On Sept. 16, 2008, Lee, the associate White House counsel, asked about two pending applicants whose attorneys had contacted the White House.

“As noted previously, we are hoping to get as many clemency recommendations as possible over the next few months,” Lee wrote. “To the extent that these two petitions may be ‘easy’ cases (and I defer to you on that question), it would be helpful if these and other ‘easy’ cases are given priority.”

Rodgers forwarded the e-mail to a staff attorney with a warning to ignore anything in Lee’s note that “could be construed as armchair quarterbacking.”

With no more than 30 recommendations from the pardons office by the fall, the White House pushed to reverse two denials, Lee and others said in interviews. Then it did something Bush had vowed to avoid, taking up a pardon application from a felon whose case had not been reviewed by the pardon attorney.

Isaac Toussie, a New York developer and Republican political donor, pleaded guilty in 2001 and 2002 to mail fraud and a real estate scheme in which false documents had been submitted to allow low-income buyers to obtain insured mortgages from the Department of Housing and Urban Development. Toussie served five months in prison, another five months of home detention and three years of supervised release. He also paid a $10,000 fine.

Toussie had not waited the requisite five years, but one of his attorneys, Bradford Berenson, had been an associate White House counsel during Bush’s first term. Berenson took Toussie’s case directly to the White House — and it worked. On Dec. 23, 2008, Toussie’s name was on the final list of pardons granted by Bush.

That action sparked fury among hundreds of New Yorkers who were involved at the time in a civil litigation suit against the Toussie family over a second real estate project.

After eight years of caution on pardons, Bush had stumbled. On Dec. 24, 2008 — four weeks before Obama’s inauguration — Bush became the first president to announce withdrawal of a pardon.

Bush left office having denied more than twice as many applicants as Clinton. Richard Nixon pardoned more people in a single year than Bush pardoned during two full terms.

In the final hour of his presidency, Bush confided to Obama his deep frustrations with the pardon process. In the limousine ride the two men shared up Pennsylvania Avenue on Inauguration Day, Bush offered his successor this piece of advice: “Announce a pardon policy early on and stick to it.”

Bush wrote in his memoir that he had been besieged by last-minute pardon requests from politically connected people who did not go through the pardons office.

“At first I was frustrated,” he wrote. “Then I was disgusted. I came to see massive injustice in the system. If you had connections to the President, you could insert your case into the last-minute frenzy. Otherwise, you had to wait for the Justice Department to conduct a review and make a recommendation.”

Bush resolved to rebuff the personal requests.

The incoming administration needed little prodding on this issue. Obama’s top legal advisers already were convinced that the pardon system put the poor at a disadvantage. Gregory Craig, who would become Obama’s White House counsel, said he began raising the possibility of reform during the transition.

Craig said pardons were “clearly much more available to people with economic means than those without.”

Working with then-Deputy Attorney General David Ogden, Craig developed a plan to take the vetting of pardon applicants away from career prosecutors.

“I couldn’t completely understand the standards being applied by the pardons office,” Ogden said in an interview. “They seemed very subjective in some cases, and I thought the standards should come from the president, not from the pardons office.”

Craig said he believes pardon applications should be sifted by an independent commission of former judges, prosecutors, defense attorneys and representatives of faith-based groups. The commission would make recommendations directly to the president.

Officials envisioned a process in which the president would announce decisions quarterly instead of the traditional grants at Thanksgiving and Christmas. A team of lawyers also suggested that the president explain his decisions, to build confidence in the process and encourage people to apply.

Officials were struck by comparisons between the federal system and those of the states. Depending on the state, pardons can be granted by governors, legislatures or state pardon boards. During the period in which Bush pardoned 189 people, Pennsylvania pardoned more than 1,000.

Several states have adopted the practice of explaining their decisions. Virginia issues public notices praising specific aspects of an applicant’s rehabilitation.

Obama officials believed changes in the pardon system could be made by executive order. But two years later, pardon reform efforts were dead. The effort faded away as its key proponents, Ogden and Craig, left the administration.

“We just never got there before I left,” said Ogden, who resigned in 2010.

The pardons office continues to function much as it did under Bush, with Obama pardoning only applicants recommended by the office. Obama has denied 1,019 pardon requests, more than Clinton denied during his two terms.

dafna.linzer@propublica.org, @DafnaLinzer

jennifer.lafleur@propublica.org, @j_la28

Post researcher Julie Tate and ProPublica researchers Liz Day and Robin Respaut contributed to this report. ProPublica is an independent, nonprofit newsroom that produces investigative journalism in the public interest.

Published in: A Challenge, Civil Liberties/Rights, Crime, Institutions on December 5, 2011 at8:24 AM Comments (0)

DECEMBER – Week #1: “Is Gingrich surge solid or short-lived?”

Kathleen Parker

WASHINGTON – Things sure do change fast around here. One week it’s Rick Perry, the next it’s Herman Cain. Now it’s … Newt Gingrich?

The Republican voter is like a starving man at a free buffet. He gorges on this, then that, then spies a steaming plump pork roast at the far end of the table. Charge!

(No anatomical parallels intended. I’m a little hungry myself.)

The Newt Surge, deserving as it is of Uppercase Respect, has thrown everyone off – except, that is, Gingrich, who seems to be savoring his own inevitability. But of course he’s leading the polls. He dominates in debates. He’s been there, done that. He’s even nice to his opponents, refusing to criticize them or play along with moderators, who, in addition to being members of the loathed mainstream media, are intellectual chicken hawks trying to stir up a fight that they can then smugly condemn.

Brilliant.

The conundrum for the heretofore unmentioned front-runner, Mitt Romney, is to determine whether Gingrich’s rise is a mere appetizer to Romney’s eventual banquet or a serious threat to his presumed nomination. Romney may have a more serious problem than is conceivable given the trolley of baggage that Gingrich has to drag around. The largest pieces include: taking huge sums in consulting fees from Freddie Mac; ethics violations from his days as speaker of the House; an extramarital affair with a Hill staffer, his now-wife Callista, while he was trying to impeach Bill Clinton for lying about his extramarital dalliance with an intern.

Gingrich’s rise may indicate a populace that considers the nation’s challenges more important than personal foibles. Or, more likely, his surge is an affirmation of the Republican base’s preference for a good ol’ boy from the South rather than an exotic from a vacation reef out in the middle of the ocean.

If exotic got us into this mess, then mightn’t the antidote be a Georgian who knows his way around the Federalist Papers? The anyone-but-Mitt crowd can overlook a satchel of sins if the alternative is a flip-flopping cultist from Up There. (Please bear in mind, observation is not endorsement.)

Indeed, a man who has fallen from grace and arisen from the political ash heap is more than an ecumenical metaphor. To many Republican voters, Gingrich is “one of us,” a familiar face, a known quantity. Most important, he has done the single thing that transcends sin: He has confessed and repented.

If Christian Americans hate a sin, they love a sinner. Let’s face it: Forgiveness feels good. Gingrich not only has been forthright in admitting his flaws, but he also converted to Catholicism. Who knows? In another generation, Republicans may take Mormonism off the cult list.

One doesn’t have to be a Catholic to appreciate the sublime duet of confession and redemption. The ability to shed the burden of sin in a confessional booth, submit to the humility of shame and accept the grace of forgiveness is an appealing exit from the turmoil of personal transgression. No wonder the masses flock to St. Peter’s Square. (I’m feeling a little tug myself.)

Bottom line: Most Americans would rather embrace a man who has fallen and climbed back to his feet than one who has never stubbed his toe on temptation. The successful protagonist is always flawed. In Romney breaking news: He removes the cheese from his pizza, but has a weakness for chocolate milk. Mr. Squeaky not only has no skeletons in the closet; he has no closets.

Republicans can characterize their preference for Gingrich as the lure of Big Ideas, but this would be more justification than explanation. Gingrich does have big ideas; they’re just mostly bad ones. At least they are untested and, in such precarious times, perhaps too risky. His two-of-everything model for health care and Social Security, for example – wherein we keep the old system but also create a new one – sounds spectacular in concept. We love a choice. But implementation is a Trojan horse of another color. If one system is breaking the bank, how much would two put us in the hole?

A few weeks ago, Gingrich was the quiet gnome on the debate panel, patiently waiting for his turn to dazzle. He was the sage father figure, certain of his certainty, benignly tolerant of the petulant children whose company he was forced to keep. Today, he is the prince of tides.

But the tides ebb and flow, and the sands shift. And well they might again.

Kathleen Parker’s email address is kathleenparker@washpost.com.

NOVEMBER – Week #4: “Mitt vs. Newt”

By

It’s Iowa minus 32 days, and barring yet another resurrection (or event of similar improbability), it’s Mitt Romney vs. Newt Gingrich. In a match race, here’s the scorecard:

Romney has managed to weather the debates unscathed. However, the brittleness he showed when confronted with the kind of informed follow-up questions that Bret Baier tossed his way Tuesday on Fox’s “Special Report” — the kind of scrutiny one doesn’t get in multiplayer debates — suggests that Romney may become increasingly vulnerable as the field narrows.

Moreover, Romney has profited from the temporary rise and spontaneous combustion of Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry and Herman Cain. No exertion required on Romney’s part.

Enter Gingrich, the current vessel for anti-Romney forces — and likely the final one. Gingrich’s obvious weakness is a history of flip-flops, zigzags and mind changes even more extensive than Romney’s — on climate change, the health-care mandate, cap-and-trade, Libya, the Ryan Medicare plan, etc.

The list is long. But what distinguishes Gingrich from Romney — and mitigates these heresies in the eyes of conservatives — is that he authored a historic conservative triumph: the 1994 Republican takeover of the House after 40 years of Democratic control [AKA -  The Republican Revolution or Devolution Revolution via The Contract with America].

Which means that Gingrich’s apostasies are seen as deviations from his conservative core — while Romney’s flip-flops are seen as deviations from . . . nothing. Romney has no signature achievement, legislation or manifesto that identifies him as a core conservative.

So what is he? A center-right, classic Northeastern Republican who, over time, has adopted a specific, quite bold, thoroughly conservative platform. His entitlement reform, for example, is more courageous than that of any candidate, including Barack Obama. Nevertheless, the party base, ostentatiously pursuing serial suitors-of-the-month, considers him ideologically unreliable. Hence the current ardor for Gingrich.

Gingrich has his own vulnerabilities. The first is often overlooked because it is characterological rather than ideological: his own unreliability. Gingrich has a self-regard so immense that it rivals Obama’s — but, unlike Obama’s, is untamed by self-discipline.

Take that ad Gingrich did with Nancy Pelosi on global warming, advocating urgent government action. He laughs it off today with “that is probably the dumbest single thing I’ve done in recent years. It is inexplicable.”

This will not do. He was obviously thinking something. What was it? Thinking of himself as a grand world-historical figure, attuned to the latest intellectual trend (preferably one with a tinge of futurism and science, like global warming), demonstrating his own incomparable depth and farsightedness. Made even more profound and fundamental — his favorite adjectives — if done in collaboration with a Nancy Pelosi, Patrick Kennedy or even Al Sharpton, offering yet more evidence of transcendent, trans-partisan uniqueness.

Two ideologically problematic finalists: One is a man of center-right temperament who has of late adopted a conservative agenda. The other is a man more conservative by nature but possessed of an unbounded need for grand display that has already led him to unconservative places even he is at a loss to explain, and that as president would leave him in constant search of the out-of-box experience — the confoundedly brilliant Nixon-to-China flipperoo regarding his fancy of the day, be it health care, taxes, energy, foreign policy, whatever.

The second, more obvious, Gingrich vulnerability is electability. Given his considerable service to the movement, many conservatives seem quite prepared to overlook his baggage, ideological and otherwise. This is understandable. But the independents and disaffected Democrats upon whom the general election will hinge will not be so forgiving.

They will find it harder to overlook the fact that the man who denounces Freddie Mac to the point of suggesting that those in Congress who aided and abetted it be imprisoned, took $30,000 a month from that very same parasitic federal creation. Nor will independents be so willing to believe that more than $1.5 million was paid for Gingrich’s advice as “a historian” rather than for services as an influence peddler.

Obama’s approval rating among independents is a catastrophically low 30 percent. This is a constituency disappointed in Obama but also deeply offended by the corrupt culture of the Washington insider — a distaste in no way attenuated by fond memories of the 1994 Contract with America

My own view is that Republicans would have been better served by the candidacies of Mitch Daniels, Paul Ryan or Chris Christie. Unfortunately, none is running. You play the hand you’re dealt. This is a weak Republican field with two significantly flawed front-runners contesting an immensely important election. If Obama wins, he will take the country to a place from which it will not be able to return (which is precisely his own objective for a second term).

Every conservative has thus to ask himself two questions: Who is more likely to prevent that second term? And who, if elected, is less likely to unpleasantly surprise?

letters@charleskrauthammer.com

NOVEMBER – Week #4: A New Way to Campaign

November 30, 2011

The Up-Close-and-Personal Candidate? A Thing of the Past

By

COUNCIL BLUFFS, Iowa — The aspiring Republican presidential candidates have logged countless hours in the living rooms of voters, pitching their platforms and firing jabs at President Obama.

Yet there is one difference this election season. The contenders, even here in the early-voting states, are far more likely to make their visits on television than to ever drop by in person.

In what is shaping up as a profound change in American politics, the living room stops and the cafe visits where candidates offer handshakes and make appeals for support are creeping toward extinction. The onetime fixtures of the campaign trail are giving way to the Fox News studio and televised debates.

It has been five decades since television began to transform presidential races, but never before have the effects of cable television been so apparent in the early stages of a campaign.

The latest sign can be found in the resurgence of Newt Gingrich, who is now trying, with little more than a month before the voting starts, to build an on-the-ground organization in states that can keep up with his on-the-air popularity. He has spent less time at traditional campaign events and more time on television than almost any of his rivals.

“Everything has changed,” said Gov. Sam Brownback of Kansas, who traveled across Iowa as an unsuccessful Republican presidential candidate four years ago. “It’s like a town hall every day on Fox News. You hear people talking back to you what you saw yesterday on Fox. I like Fox, and I’m glad we have an outlet, but it is having a major, major effect on what happens.”

The Fox News effect is amplified by other factors. Cable networks are staging more debates than ever, obliging candidates to build their fall schedules around preparing for and traveling to the slickly produced televised clashes, and putting a premium on skills different from those of retail campaigning.

A number of candidates, especially Mr. Gingrich and Herman Cain, have used their campaigns as promotional tours for books, movies and their own personal brands. As a result, they often visit places that are good markets for them rather than going to the traditional early-voting states, enabling them to skirt some of the scrutiny that comes with regular appearances before voters.

A log compiled by Fox News showed that it had interviewed Mr. Cain 63 times since he announced his candidacy — more than any of his rivals — followed by Mr. Gingrich with 52 television appearances.

The rise of social media also has given candidates greater opportunity to connect with voters electronically and build databases of potential donors and volunteers without investing large amounts of time on the ground.

As a result, some candidates who lack big war chests and get-out-the-vote operations can maintain higher public profiles and greater credibility than they otherwise might have been able to. This has undercut the advantages enjoyed by well-financed, well-established candidates like Mitt Romney, who has spent considerably less time on television than any of his rivals.

Only as the first voting draws closer is the pace of traditional campaigning picking up, with candidates trying to make up for lost time. Mr. Gingrich has spent three days in South Carolina this week and arrived here in Council Bluffs on Wednesday night. Mr. Romney was in Florida on Tuesday for his only public events of the week, and Gov. Rick Perry of Texas visited New Hampshire.

Even the most committed Republican voters say they have found it harder to judge the candidates up close this year because they do not visit as often.

“Having what seems like 55 debates makes them very good debaters, but I don’t know if that makes them the best candidates,” said Mark Lundberg, a financial adviser in Orange City, Iowa, who is chairman of the Sioux County Republican Party. “The TV folks all ask the same stuff, and the candidates are much more scripted in their responses.”

A few candidates continue to bet that devotion to old-fashioned retail campaigning will pay surprise dividends when the voting begins in early January. Former Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania has visited all 99 counties in Iowa, and Jon M. Huntsman Jr., the former governor of Utah, has crisscrossed New Hampshire on a traditional path to the nomination.

“Would the numbers suggest that we’re getting an immediate return? No,” Mr. Huntsman said in a telephone interview this week, after having just completed his 110th campaign event since jumping into the race this summer. “But a lot of these folks want to be able to meet you, stare you down and ask you a question. They take this stuff very seriously, and that’s the kind of interaction you can’t have through new mediums of communication.”

The presidential debates — 11 of them so far, in addition to countless other forums — have played an outsize role in setting the tone of the campaign and the perceptions of the candidates.

Barely a week has gone by since Labor Day when the field has not come together for a debate. This week’s CNN debate in Arizona was postponed until February, which has created more campaign activity than many states have seen all year.

“The debates have become the campaign, and the hunt for money has been harder and time consuming,” said Steve Duprey, a member of the Republican National Committee from New Hampshire.

When Mr. Perry declared his candidacy in August and embarked on a whirlwind tour of South Carolina, New Hampshire and Iowa, his advisers said his knack for retail politics would help him overcome any disadvantage of his late entry into the race. After a three-month stretch in which debates have dominated the conversation among donors and activists, his aides acknowledge that the diminished focus on traditional campaigning has been an unexpected hurdle.

But as the Republican nominating fight enters a new phase, the campaigns are urgently trying to win over undecided party activists in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. The candidates are trying to convert their television appearances and debates into real support in the caucuses and primaries, which are tests of organization.

“The debate performances have propelled them,” said Gov. Terry E. Branstad of Iowa, who has had a ringside seat to every Republican presidential campaign for three decades. “But from here on out, the candidates are going to have to start spending the time and effort on the ground.”

NOVEMBER – Week #4: “Pennsylvania becomes major battleground for Obama in 2012″

By Anne E. Kornblut and , Published: November 29

The Obama campaign says it is working on an expanded electoral map in 2012, preparing for battle in so many places that it can afford to lose some of the big, traditional states he won four years ago. Pennsylvania is not one of those states.

As is clear from President Obama’s Wednesday visit to Scranton, some battlegrounds are more equal than others.

Every Democratic nominee in the past two decades has won Pennsylvania — and Obama did so by a comfortable margin in 2008 — but the state has grown less hospitable to Obama in the past three years. Republicans swept the 2010 midterms, winning the governor’s seat, a Senate seat and five congressional districts, including the 11th District, where Obama will appear on Wednesday.

Yet unlike other similarly challenging states — Ohio and Florida — where Democrats think they can lose and still win overall, Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral college votes are still key to almost any path to 270 electoral college votes. “It’s hard to figure out a scenario for a Democrat to win the presidency without carrying Pennsylvania,” former Democratic governor Ed Rendell, a prominent Obama supporter, said. “It’s not impossible, but it’s very, very hard.”

Obama aides believe the president maintains a strong advantage in Pennsylvania because of the Democrats’ lead in registered voters – 4.14 million Democrats compared with 3.03 million Republicans, according to the state election office, although that advantage did nothing to blunt Republican gains in 2010.

Obama’s advisers argue that off-year elections are different and that their own massive organization was not out in full force, which is starting to change.

So far, Obama for America has made more than 250,000 calls to supporters and held more than 3,500 conversations with potential volunteers, aides said. When the campaign launched its youth voter initiative several weeks ago, it did so in Philadelphia. “The advantage we have in Scranton and across Pennsylvania is that we’re starting early,” Aletheia Henry, Obama state director, said.

Obama ran even with Mitt Romney — 44 to 43 percent — in a November Quinnipiac University poll of registered voters, but fared better against other contenders, including by 10 points over Newt Gingrich.

Obama’s appearance Wednesday will be his eighth in Pennsylvania this year. He will not be accompanied by Democratic Sen. Robert P. Casey Jr., a Scranton native who is running for reelection in 2012; Casey will be in Washington because of Senate votes, but members of Casey’s family will attend, aides said.

The state presents a special political challenge for the president. While Obama won parts of northeastern Pennsylvania in 2008, both congressional districts there rejected longtime Democratic incumbents two years later. Rep. Lou Barletta, the Republican who represents Scranton, said the region’s stubbornly high unemployment has shifted support away from the president.

“I think the president should stay in Washington,” Barletta said. “The people of Scranton would appreciate that more than a visit. They would appreciate a job more than a visit — especially at the taxpayers’ expense.”

The White House has been defending itself against GOP charges that the president has begun campaigning for reelection under the guise of official presidential travel. But it is not uncommon for sitting presidents to combine official and political business on domestic trips. While the Scranton stop is official business — Obama plans to push Congress to pass an extension of the payroll tax cut — he will also stop in New York to raise money for his reelection.

Pennsylvania, with a 9.8 percent unemployment rate, is a unique quandary for Obama. He lost the Democratic primary there in 2008 to Hillary Rodham Clinton after calling Pennsylvanians “bitter,” and while he recovered well enough to beat Sen. John McCain by 11 points in the fall general election, one former Obama official said: “Obama was never adored in Pennsylvania.”

That official said that Obama won in 2008 because of a superior field operation and the country’s desire for change, but he said the “bitter” remark has lingered and the state’s changing demographics could present further challenges.

On the one hand, the percentage of working-class whites is shrinking, by up to 5 percent, said Ruy Teixeira, a senior fellow at the liberal Center for American Progress. Those voters are most hostile to Obama, Teixeira said, so any decrease in their numbers could help the president. Yet it is less clear whether Obama can maintain the winning advantage he had among the growing number of white college graduates.

Barry Denk, director of the Center for Rural Pennsylvania, said the population is aging and thus getting more conservative.

Perhaps the most unpredictable changes to the population, Denk said, are happening in the northeast part of the state, which has seen an influx of more conservative residents. Conversely, in the southern part of the state, new residents from Baltimore and Washington are making traditionally conservative areas more liberal, Denk said.

“You’re seeing a blending and that makes it less predictable,” Denk said. “You cannot always go on historical patterns.”

Polling analyst Scott Clement contributed to this report.

Published in: 2012 Election, A Challenge, Economics, Political Parties, Politics, Polls on November 30, 2011 at7:06 AM Comments (7)

NOVEMBER – Week #4: Barney Frank D-MA

Barney Frank’s exit signals growing Democratic retirements, but not yet an avalanche

By , Monday, November 28, 9:47 AM

House Democrats are starting to head for the exits, but it’s not quite panic time for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

In recent days, both Reps. Barney Frank (D-Mass.) and Charlie Gonzalez (D-Texas) have announced they won’tseek re-election in 2012. Their declarations bring the number of Democrats not seeking another term next year to 17, which has Republicans arguing that Democratic members don’t believe they can retake the House majority next year.

But eight of those 17 Democrats are actually seeking other office. In other words, only nine Democrats are calling it quits outright.

While that number is greater than the amount of Democrats who have typically announced their retirements at other points in past election cycles, it’s still far less than the exodus that generally occurs after a party loses House control. So when it comes to whether this is a big problem for Democrats recapturing the House majority in 2012, the jury is very much out.

Looking ahead, though, the number of Democratic retirements in the next couple months will be a key indicator of whether the rank-and-file truly believe the majority is attainable. As President Obama’s numbers continue to languish and the economy struggle, some may see the goal slipping away.

In the 2008 cycle, after Democrats re-took the House, 23 Republicans retired without seeking higher office, including 14 by late November of the off-year. Fewer Democrats have announced their retirements at this same time in the 2012 cycle and Republicans recaptured the House in 2010.

And in the 1996 cycle, after Republicans re-took the House, 20 Democrats headed for the exits without running for another job.

But at the same time, Democrats haven’t seen their members retire in these numbers in quite a while. Over each of the last five election cycles, the number of Democrats retiring outright by this point in the cycle has never been more than one or two. So the fact that Democrats lost the majority in 2010 is definitely having an effect on retention.

It’s also worth noting that the total number of Democratic open seats — 17 — is creeping up on the numbers Republicans posted after 2006 and Democrats showed after 1994. So while many of the Democratic retirees are seeking higher office — a suggestion that they aren’t disheartened by the electoral environment — those are still open seats that Democrats will have to defend.

Republicans have a good chance of taking the seats held by retiring Reps. Dan Boren (D-Okla.) and Mike Ross (D-Ark.) and Senate candidate Rep. Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.). They also have a fighting chance at capturing some of the seats held by Senate candidates Reps. Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.) and Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) and retiring Reps. Jerry Costello (D-Ill.) and Dennis Cardoza (D-Calif.).

But all the other open seats are very likely to remain in Democratic hands, meaning Republicans haven’t seen a huge surge in pick-up opportunities thanks to the retirements.

Republicans, though, argue that retirements like Franks’s might cause other Democrats to think twice about staying on Capitol Hill. Frank, as ranking member of the House Financial Services Committee, would be in line to regain his chairmanship if Democrats retake the House in 2010.

So if Frank doesn’t think that possibility is good enough to stick around for, what about the rank-and-file member who doesn’t really want to be in the minority?

Republicans had this problem in 2007. Leadership tried to convince members to seek re-election and that the majority wasn’t too far away, but many didn’t believe them. The GOP wound up having to defend more than a dozen competitive open seats that year.

Democrats aren’t close to being in that situation yet, as most of their retirees still hail from safe seats (indeed, there are pretty few incumbent Democrats left in competitive districts), but the more that number grows, the more of a nuisance retirements become and the more they may snowball.

The DCCC has pushed many of these members to make a decision early — and those in the toughest districts did so, at least so far — which gave their party a chance to recruit a replacement candidate early. But that doesn’t mean there won’t be more to come. House members guard their own prerogatives pretty closely, and not all of them will listen to their leaders when they tell them to decide early.

And the more Democrats retire, the more it looks like rank-and-file members don’t believe the DCCC’s insistence that they can win back the House majority next year.

Keep an eye on it.

© The Washington Post Company

 

 

“Barney Frank leaves his mark on economic policy, gay rights movement”

By

As he announces his retirement Monday, Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.) leaves behind a legacy that crosses from legislative cornerstones to political confrontations to a historic place as the nation’s most prominent gay lawmaker.

Love him or hate him — and there were very few who fell anywhere in between — Frank, 71, spent the past three decades crafting a pugnacious personality for the congressional age of television, first in the early days of C-Span’s coverage of the House and later for the 24-7 environment of cable television. Behind the scenes, Frank became one of the most important legislators of his generation on domestic policy, a successful backroom negotiator who won the trust of the Bush Treasury Department and the gay rights movement.

Frank became a touchstone figure in the national political debate in ways that were usually reserved for party leaders such as Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and the late Sen. Edward M. Kennedy (D-Mass.).

On the left Frank was a hero both for his effort to rein in the nation’s largest banks and for his role in promoting gay rights, having been the first member of Congress to declare his sexual orientation while in office. On the right, Frank became a stand-in, alongside Pelosi and Kennedy, for attack lines designed to gin up conservative activists.

Newt Gingrich’s recent rise in the GOP presidential campaign began, to some degree, six weeks ago when he suggested in a debate that Frank should be “thrown in jail” for his role in pushing the Clinton and Bush administrations to promote homeownership and then in his regulation of the industry.

Never one to hold his fire, Frank returned the retort over the past few weeks, repeatedly criticizing the former House speaker for his role working for Freddie Mac as a seven-figure consultant. “You talk about the ‘L’ word with Newt. Let’s be clear the two words apply to Newt: lobbyist and liar,” Frank said in a recent MSNBC interview, rehashing his role as a chief antagonist of Gingrich’s during his 1990s speakership.

Frank’s stature inside the Capitol dome reached its pinnacle in 2007, when he became chairman of the Financial Services Committee. For the next four years Frank oversaw Wall Street, the housing industry and the multitude of financial firms that packaged questionable mortgages into complicated trading mechanisms.

This placed Frank at the epicenter of the most critical debates of the past five years, beginning with housing legislation in 2007 and 2008 that tried to forestall the industry’s collapse. In the fall of 2008, Frank was the lead House Democratic negotiator for what became the $700 billion bailout of Wall Street, alongside then-Sen. Christopher J. Dodd (D-Conn.).

An openly gay, Jewish liberal representing a district south of Boston, Frank developed a deep trust with then-Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson — a Christian Eagle Scout raised in Illinois who went on to run Goldman Sachs.

“Two elements made it possible for Hank Paulson and me to work together despite partisan anger about our cooperation,” Frank wrote in the foreword to the paperback edition of Paulson’s book, “On the Brink.” “First, we trusted each other, admired each other’s integrity and commitment to the public good, and shared a similar and natural understanding of the crisis that faced us, and we were helped by the fact that we were both in power.”

As the first vote on the Paulson rescue plan was failing, some Democratic leaders pushed for GOP leaders to politically break arms to deliver enough votes to push the legislation over the top. Frank told the leaders to end the vote, that passing such a controversial bill in that manner would only make it more unpopular. Four days later, after slight modifications, the legislation was approved. It has remained deeply unpopular ever since, despite what many experts consider its key role in preventing a financial meltdown.

By late 2009, Frank and Dodd began deep, protracted negotiations on legislation that came to bear their names, a rewrite of oversight of Wall Street. The Dodd-Frank legislation tried to create a more transparent financial services industry, requiring more disclosure of exotic derivative trades and creating the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. In a recent profile, Elizabeth Warren — the former White House aide who helped create the bureau and now a Senate candidate in Massachusetts — marveled at Frank’s forcefulness in the negotiations. With each suggestion, Frank asked those in the room what objections they had, and if there were none, he barked out, “Done!” Those provisions ended up in the legislation.

“That was the first time that I understood, and real well, what it means to be in the room,” she told New York Times Magazine.

Wall Street firms, feeling abandoned by Frank and other Democrats who they believed were their allies, have fought the implementation of Dodd-Frank, and Senate Republicans have vowed to block any appointment by President Obama to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

Over his career, the largest donors to Frank’s campaigns have been firms and executives in the securities, real estate, insurance, legal and banking industries, totalling more than $4 million worth of donations the past two decades, according to the Center for Responsive Politics.

First elected in 1980, Frank became, in 1987, the first sitting member of Congress to publicly reveal he was gay. Since then he has become the leading lawmaker for the gay rights movement, with the most recent achievement coming a year ago with the repeal of the military’s “don’t ask, don’t tell” ban on gay service members serving openly.

In 1990, Frank was reprimanded during an inquiry into allegations involving his relationship with a male prostitute who worked out of the lawmaker’s Capitol Hill townhouse. The panel found that Frank had no knowledge of the illegal activities but disciplined him for using his office to help fix traffic tickets for his partner.

The lawmaker’s wit has made him one of the legendary sparring partners for House floor debates and a sought-after personality in the age of cable television. In February, as the House prepared to approve a bill cutting more than $60 billion from 2011 federal budgets, Frank accused his GOP colleagues of an “orgy of self congratulation” given the legislation’s pending defeat in the Senate.

“Once the Senate gives this awful product an appropriate burial, I will not be a party to its resuscitation,” he said, prompting a shouting exchange with some GOP lawmakers.

In 2009, The Hill newspaper documented Frank’s proclivity for interrupting his TV interviewers, or his fellow guests, if he felt they had slighted him in the least.

Appearing that year with Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.), Frank said, “I’m sorry, Michele, please don’t interrupt. I know you don’t want to hear this.”

Despite the rhetorical broadsides, Frank prided himself in his ability to find room to compromise with the other side, whether it was Paulson or the Senate. In a preview of his retirement announcement Monday, Frank had grown exasperated with the increasing gridlock in this era hyper partisanship.

“Partisanship is a legitimate concept,” he wrote earlier this year for Paulson’s book, “that has been discredited by the excesses of too many of its practitioners.”

Published in: 2012 Election, A Challenge, Economics, Political Parties, Politics on November 28, 2011 at8:25 PM Comments (1)

NOVEMBER – Week #4: “The Nincompoop Nominee”

 

Newt Gingrich Would Be a Godsend to the Democrats

What’s next? The Santorum Surge? The Huntsman Hiccup? Why Newt Gingrich would be a godsend to the Democrats.

by  

 

What are we to make of the ascension of Newt Gingrich?

Perhaps the day has finally, belatedly, blessedly arrived when the Republican Party has found the transformational, revolutionary figure it’s been pining for. Perhaps the GOP has awoken to the charm that was always there: the constant use of “frankly,” the know-it-all historical references, the grandiosity, the bombast. Perhaps Republicans have found the fresh face they feel they need—in a 68-year-old man who first ran for Congress in the Nixon administration.

Or perhaps not.

More likely the Gingrich surge is just the latest Republican tulip craze (count the pedantic historical references I use in Newt’s honor!)—with Newt simply serving as the latest vessel for the ABR movement: Anybody But Romney.

Mitt Romney has been running for president nonstop for about five years now. And he has gone from 25 percent in the 2007 Iowa caucuses to 18 percent in the latest Bloomberg poll of Iowa voters. He’s the Harold Stassen of 2012. Face it, Mitt: they’re just not that into you.

Republicans, apparently, will date anyone before they’ll marry Mitt. Remember their brief fling with Donald Trump? Then, after he decided not to throw his hair into the ring, they fell for Michele Bachmann, the Zoya Kosmodemyanskaya of the far right. Then it was Rick Perry—the guy who claims he jogs with a loaded gun (without a safety) tucked into his shorts. And now that they’ve tired of Herman Cain’s, umm, hands-on style of leadership, it’s Newt’s turn.

gop-race-co01-begala
Photo Illustration by Newsweek (source photos from left): Darren McCollester / Getty Images; Richard Ellis / Getty Images

And so, like MacArthur, Newt has returned. I, for one, could not be happier—but then again, I’m a Democrat, so I have to take my political pleasures where I can find them. I seriously doubt Newt will be the GOP nominee. But a guy can dream, can’t he?

Maybe Newt can be the Tea Party’s Baron von Steuben, disciplining a ragtag insurgency. Newt could go down in history as having contributed crucially to reelecting two Democratic presidents. During Bill Clinton’s 1996 campaign, Gingrich perfectly served in the role of villain. Facing a moderate Republican war hero, the moderate Democratic non-war hero was in a bind. Demonizing Bob Dole was going to be somewhere between difficult and impossible, though Lord knows I tried. (I still cringe when I think about the time I said Dole looked like he wanted to club a baby seal.)

But Newt was a godsend: within weeks of the 1994 GOP landslide—before he’d even taken the speaker’s gavel—Newsweek’s cover dubbed him “The Gingrich Who Stole Christmas.” When he whined about his seat on Air Force One coming home from the funeral of the assassinated Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, the New York Daily News’s cover featured Newt in a diaper with the headline “Cry Baby!”

While Dole was looking for ways to avoid a government shutdown, Newt was looking for ways to cause one. He overplayed his hand so terribly that Clinton was able to draw a line in the sand like Col. William Barret Travis. Newt’s intransigence allowed Clinton to show resolve, and the Comeback Kid was reelected by relentlessly attacking what his ads called “Dole-Gingrich.”

I fear the dream won’t last, alas. At some point Republicans will wise up and nominate the zillionaire layoff artist with the square jaw and the Slinky spine. But I’ve been saying that all year, and I’ve been wrong all year.

I really can’t imagine how it must pain Mitt Romney. He must feel like Adm. Pierre-Charles Villeneuve at the Battle of Trafalgar. What does the guy have to do to win? He’s changed so many of his deeply held convictions that he’s reduced to bragging that he hasn’t changed wives or religions. Newt has changed wives and religions, and the base still likes him better than Romney.

There are only two months until the Iowa caucuses. After Newt does a Hindenburg, that’s still enough time for a Santorum Surge and maybe even a Huntsman Hiccup. Anything, anything other than a Romney Romance.

NOVEMBER – Week #4: “A Rogue Convention?”


By: Rob Richie and Elise Helgesen
November 25

The rules of a game often determine its winner. With the approach of the Republican Party’s first presidential nomination caucuses and primaries, party rules are already playing a key role — and just may lead Republicans on a wild nomination ride that won’t end until the last day of its convention in Tampa.

The Republican Party is an association rather than a government entity, making its national rules the equivalent of a constitution when it comes to its nomination process. To be sure, states may want to change the dates of a primary, state parties may change the manner of their nomination contests and members of Congress may pontificate about the process. But for the final word, it’s the Rules of the Republican Party.

Here’s the party’s problem: Those party rules directly conflict with the conventional interpretation of the meaning of upcoming primaries and caucuses, and next summer may well lead to challenges to seating delegates. According to explicit language in their rules, Republicans can’t bind delegates from a state to vote only for one candidate by a winner-take-all rule, for example, nor are they supposed to allow non-Republicans to vote in their contests.

Given the rebellious spirit within the Republican Party embodied by a tea party movement that demands respect for the Constitution, party leaders can’t just wish away departures from the rules. Indeed, the national convention in Tampa just might take us back to a different political era: one in which delegates act on their power to choose the nominee that they think best represents the Republican Party — even if that is someone other than the apparent winner through state primaries and caucuses.

Breaking the Rules

At the 2008 convention, delegates gave the Republican National Committee limited power to change aspects of the nomination rules between conventions. To much fanfare, the RNC last year voted to move the first contests later in the year, with only Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada allowed to have caucuses and primaries in February. All states scheduling contests before April 1 were required to allocate convention delegates by proportional representation instead of the winner-take-all rule.

These rules were designed to avoid an early victory for a candidate who might secure the nomination by stringing together a series of low-plurality wins. That’s what happened in 2008, when John McCain in early February became the de facto nominee despite failing to win a majority of the vote in nearly any of the party’s contests at the time. His early knockout victory contributed directly to reduced participation and media attention in remaining Republican primaries, in sharp contrast to the spirited Democratic contest that continued into June.

But the new rules apparently were made to be broken. Last month, Florida Republicans scheduled their primary for Jan. 31, before party rules allowed. Arizona, Michigan, New Hampshire and South Carolina then advanced the date of their contests, and Iowa moved its nonbinding caucuses to Jan. 3. One potential casualty of that rule-breaking was the potential candidacy of New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, as the newly compressed schedule left him little time to build the kind of field operations necessary to compete in states holding early contests.

While states breaking party rules are sure to monopolize presidential candidate time and attention, their party leaders may come to regret their decision. If the convention has real power in choosing presidential and vice-presidential nominees, five states — Arizona, Florida, Michigan, New Hampshire and South Carolina — will have only half their allotted delegates because the RNC already has acted on Rule 16, allowing such a penalty. RNC chairman Reince Priebus told ABC News: “The penalty is there, the penalty is going to stick, and that’s all there is to it.”

Those words may sound stern, but one root of a potential convention rebellion lies in another decision by the RNC. Priebus singled out Florida for criticism in instigating other states to advance their contests, but the RNC shockingly has allowed Florida to break a second rule without any penalty at all. In direct violation of its mandate of proportional representation for early contests, Florida was given a green light to award all of it its delegates to the statewide winner, no matter how low the percentage of the vote.

Other states will have good grounds to challenge Florida’s remaining delegates. Use of the “winner-take-all” unit rule magnifies the impact of finishing first in Florida. In contests held by proportional voting, almost every vote will count toward candidates earning delegates. That means winning 5 percent more of the vote will earn about 5 percent more delegates.

In Florida, however, gaining 5 percent more of the vote through heavy campaign spending could be the difference between winning all of Florida’s delegates or none, no matter how low that winning percentage. In a similarly fractured field in 1996, Pat Buchanan won the New Hampshire primary with just 27 percent — the kind of numbers we may well see in Florida, as evidenced by the most recent Quinnipiac poll showing Herman Cain leading the field with 25 percent. Such distorted outcomes demonstrate why winner-take-all is a poor means to reflect a party’s “big tent” of diverse opinions and interests, particularly with the added element of big money able to swing outcomes with a small change in the vote.

That insight about winner-take-all is nothing new. According to Rule 38 in the Rules of the Republican Party, a state cannot enforce voting by the winner-take-all, unit rule: “No delegate or alternate delegate shall be bound by any attempt of any state or congressional district to impose the unit rule.” The Republican Party has in fact barred enforcing the unit rule at national conventions since 1880, when opponents of front-runner Ulysses Grant blocked states from requiring their delegates to all vote for one candidate.

Republicans in recent years have allowed state parties to adopt winner-take-all rules in contrast to Democratic Party practices requiring states to allocate delegates proportionally. But by the plain language of its party rules, no Republican convention delegate is in fact bound by winner-take-all. In other words, winner-take-all primaries essentially are advisory-only: Delegates can make up their own mind, and may well have good grounds to do so.

Grounds for a First Ballot Rebellion

The RNC ruling on Florida underscores the party’s problem. As amended in 2010, Rule 15 (b) (2) prohibits in no uncertain terms early winner-take-all contests: “Any presidential primary, caucus, convention, or other meeting held for the purpose of selecting delegates to the national convention which occurs prior to the first day of April in the year in which the national convention is held shall provide for the allocation of delegates on a proportional basis.”

Florida’s delegates may well be challenged, triggering a wider review of use of winner-take-all rules, given Rule 38. Consider, then, Republican convention delegates elected in a winner-take-all state. If determining that the winner was strongly opposed by most voters in that state — as easily can happen with plurality voting — those delegates may decide to support a different candidate.

These delegates’ decision might be all the easier if it’s clear that key nomination contests were affected by non-Republicans voting in open primary states. Although centrist pundits often applaud open primaries for giving independent voters greater power to influence party nominations, that goal is in direct conflict with party supporters who seek a truly representative nominee for their party. It’s their party’s nomination contest, after all, and many Republican activists want to win the White House with a candidate who will be true to party principles.

Once again, the rules clearly discourage non-Republicans from participating in nomination contests. Rule 15 states: “Only persons eligible to vote who are deemed as a matter of public record to be Republicans pursuant to state law or, if voters are not enrolled by party, by Republican Party rules of a state, shall participate in any primary election held for the purpose of electing delegates.”

Yet in a number of Republican contests — including New Hampshire, which allows undeclared voters, including those registering on Election Day, to participate — candidates who aren’t registered as Republicans can help determine the party’s nominee. Some states even allow registered Democrats to vote in its contest, a real possibility in a year when Democrats apparently won’t have a contested nomination race.

To anticipate potential convention challenges on this basis, keep an eye on which candidate does better in closed primary states that more accurately reflect what registered Republican voters want — if it’s not the candidate who has become the front-runner due to plurality vote wins in open primary states — watch out for fireworks in Tampa.

A Convention Potentially at Odds with its Front-runner

The nature of the Republican contest makes our analysis more than just a theoretical debate. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has the inside track, but he remains far short of 50 percent Republican support — especially among grassroots conservatives who are likely to be sticklers for upholding party rules.

Take South Carolina, where an Insider Advantage poll last month found Romney to be second with 16 percent. Among voters under 45, Romney earned only 7 percent, and he trailed Herman Cain by a landslide of 39 percent to 19 percent among voters in the tea party sweet spot age of 45 to 64. A CBS poll found that only 18 percent of Republicans would support Romney enthusiastically. More than 40 percent had reservations.

While Romney is far ahead in New Hampshire, many Republicans will see that contest as tainted. New England Republicanism represents a declining stock in the national party, and non-Republican voters can swing the vote. Gaining the nomination based on a low-plurality win in Florida and narrow victories in New Hampshire and South Carolina grounded in votes from non-Republicans may not be enough to persuade delegates to ignore party rules.

Looking toward Tampa

To be clear, we believe as many voters as possible should be involved in choosing our elected representatives. For that reason, we support expanded voter choice in general elections, accompanied by fair voting rules like instant runoff voting and proportional voting. But we also believe that rules should matter. If party leaders don’t like their rules, they should change them — not ignore them.

More broadly, we also see value in more people getting active in parties and other political associations and are intrigued by new forms of associations allowed by the Internet and social media. Coming together to define common interests and communicate those to other Americans is the very definition of the political process. Having more meaningful party conventions could promote the value of such involvement.

As one step the parties could take regardless of how Republicans pick a nominee next year, we like Washington Post reporter Michael Leahy’s suggestion that the major parties change their recent practice of giving nominees unchecked power in selecting a vice president. The major parties have had a series of controversial vice-presidential nominees – think of Sarah Palin in 2008, Joe Lieberman in 2000, Dan Quayle in 1988 and Thomas Eagleton in 1972. Given that a vice president may well become both president and a party’s de facto standard-bearer, the electoral calculations of a nominee’s campaign team should not be the only ones that matter.

Furthermore, if parties gave convention delegates more real decision-making authority at least in selecting vice-presidents, states would think twice about breaking rules as to when to hold contests and how to allocate delegates — a state losing half its delegates would always represent a real penalty, not just a theoretical one.

What happens in Tampa might come down to Republican Party leaders because there is no obvious process to appeal decisions by the party’s Standing Committee on Rules. But we anticipate and welcome more attention to party rules and what it means to be active in a political party in the 21st century. And Republicans may not be able to prevent fireworks on the convention floor, where ultimately the delegates are in control.

Stay tuned. What promises to be a momentous 2012 presidential election is just getting started.

Rob Richie is executive director of FairVote — The Center for Voting and Democracy, a nonpartisan organization based in Takoma Park, Md. Elise Helgesen is a Virginia attorney and a democracy fellow at FairVote.

NOVEMBER – Week #4: “The Path to 270″

Demographics Versus Economics in the 2012 Presidential Election

Changing demographics and the perceived and real state of the economy will play a huge role in determining the presidential winner when voters head to the polls in 2012.

SOURCE: AP/ Pat Sullivan

By John Halpin, Ruy Teixeira | November 22, 2011

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With a little under one year to go before the 2012 presidential election, next year’s battle looks increasingly competitive, with ongoing economic distress and a highly energized Republican base potentially neutralizing the incumbency advantage that President Barack Obama would traditionally hold.

Obviously, much could change between now and then but at the outset of the election campaign it is clear that two large forces will ultimately determine the outcome: the shifting demographic balance of the American electorate, and the objective reality and voter perception of the economy in key battleground states. The central questions of the election are thus fairly straightforward. Will the rising electorate of communities of color, the Millennial generation, professionals, single women, and seculars that pushed Obama to victory in 2008 be sufficient and mobilized enough to ensure his re-election in 2012? Or will the Republican Party and its presidential nominee capitalize on a struggling economy and greater mobilization from a conservative base that holds the president in deep disdain?

Regardless of the outcome, it is likely that American politics will remain highly contested and polarized for years to come. The electoral volatility seen from 2006 to 2010 suggests that the biggest issues in American politics—the role of government, the balance of public and market forces, taxation, and social welfare policies—remain contested in partisan terms. The financial crisis and the Great Recession have severely clouded the electoral picture, making it clear that 2008 marked only the potential for a new progressive alignment in American elections, rather than its consolidation. Given the job approval ratings of the president and economic indicators in key states (see Table 1 on next page), the 2012 election will likely be tighter than the 2008 election, perhaps more like 2004 or even the highly contested 2000 election.

Obama job approval and unemployment by state

What strengths and weaknesses do President Obama and Democrats hold going into 2012?

As we’ve previously argued in other CAP reports (see “New Progressive America,” “State of American Political Ideology, 2009” and “Demographic Change and the Future of the Parties”), the shifting demographic composition of the electorate—rising percentages of communities of color, single and highly educated women, Millennial generation voters, secular voters, and educated whites living in more urbanized states or more urbanized parts of states—clearly favors Democrats and has increased the relative strength of the party in national elections in recent years. In contrast, the Republican Party’s coalition of older, whiter, more rural, and evangelical voters is shrinking and becoming more geographically concentrated and less important to the overall political landscape of the country.

These Democratic advantages emerged clearly in the 2008 presidential election. Barack Obama’s 53 percent popular vote represented the largest share any presidential candidate received in 20 years. Obama won 365 electoral votes and he carried all 18 states, plus the District of Columbia, that John Kerry won in 2004 (as did Al Gore in 2000 and Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996), plus nine states that Kerry lost: Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia. By region, this pattern of Democratic victories helped to reduce core GOP strength in presidential elections to the Upper Mountain West, Great Plains states, and the South.

Republicans also lost their political monopoly in the South as the three fast-growing “new south” states of Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida went Democratic in 2008. The Northeast, the Midwest (with the exception of Missouri), the Southwest (with the exception of Arizona), and the West were solidly controlled by the Democrats. Moreover, the states the GOP carried tended to be rural and lightly populated. Sixteen out of 28 states Obama carried had 10 or more electoral votes while just 4 of the 21 that John McCain carried had that many electoral votes. Obama also carried seven of the eight most populous states: California, New York, Florida, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan. Only one of the eight most populous states—Texas—went for McCain.

Even with these long-term demographic strengths, Democratic weaknesses are manifest. Continuing economic distress among large segments of the American public, coupled with the perceived inability of the Obama administration’s policies to spark real recovery, has coalesced into serious doubts about Democratic stewardship of the economy. In August 2011, Gallup reported record low public approval of President Obama’s handling of the economy, with barely one-quarter (26 percent) approving of the president’s performance on this key indicator. No president in the past 50 years has been re-elected with unemployment as high as it is today. Historically, administrations with unemployment problems have seem them mitigated with significant employment change ahead of an election.

But given that the Congressional Budget Office is currently projecting unemployment to average 8.7 percent in 2012, that does not appear to be in the offing—unless of course there are new measures to stimulate jobs and growth. Such measures face difficult prospects given the stated position of House Republicans.

What are the strengths and weaknesses of Republicans going into 2012?

Republicans continue to hold strong advantages when the voting electorate is older, more conservative, and less diverse than the overall population.

As the 2010 election highlights, Republicans continue to hold strong advantages when the voting electorate is older, more conservative, and less diverse than the overall population. Democrats suffered one of the largest electoral defeats on record last year, ceding control of the House of Representatives to the Republican Party after regaining the majority just four years earlier. Republicans gained 63 House seats in the 2010 election, overperforming by about 10 seats what would have been expected on the basis of the popular vote split—approximately 52 per- cent Republican to 45 percent Democratic.

The Republican vote was efficiently distributed to produce Republican victories, especially in the Rust Belt states and in contested southern states such as Virginia and Florida. The Republican gain of 63 seats was the best post-World War II seat gain by either party in a midterm election, and only the third time a party gained more than 50 seats since then.

Exit-poll data from 2010 showed that independent voters, white working-class voters, seniors, and men broke heavily against the Democrats due to the economy. Similarly, turnout levels were also unusually low in communities of color and among young voters, and unusually high among seniors, whites, and conservatives, thus contributing to a more skewed midterm electorate.

The desire to unseat President Obama will likely produce a strong surge of Republican base voters in 2012. If this enthusiasm gap translates into a noticeably more conservative, GOP-leaning electorate than is typical in presidential elections, Republicans may be able to capture several of President Obama’s states from 2008.

Republicans maintain ongoing weaknesses that will need to be addressed in order to maximize their chances in 2012. The party’s increasing alignment with its most conservative wing and the rising power of Tea Party values and positions within the GOP camp does not translate well to the larger electorate. Thus, the GOP’s ability to capitalize politically on the poor economy will be significantly reduced if their eventual presidential nominee is too closely associated with an extreme anti- statist platform that is hostile to aspects of government that Americans support or a social and cultural agenda outside of the mainstream of public opinion. And even with a possible advantage in voter enthusiasm, the base mobilization strategy employed successfully by President Bush’s campaign in 2004 will be difficult to replicate given demographic shifts since that election and concerns about GOP extremism among more moderate, independent, and nonideological Americans.

Heading into 2012, the primary strategic questions will be: Will President Obama withstand continued doubts about the economy and his approach to recovery? Will the president hold sufficient support among communities of color, educated whites, Millennials, single women, and seculars and avoid a catastrophic meltdown among white working-class voters? Conversely, will Republicans capture voter disenchantment on the economy and offer a credible economic alternative to the president? Will they nominate a candidate who can appeal beyond their older, more conservative, white, evangelical base? Will Democratic apathy and Republican energy make the electorate much more conservative leaning than its underlying demographics would suggest?

The remainder of this paper explores these questions in more detail by first examining the demographic and geographic trends that will matter most in 2012 and then exploring what implications these trends might have in terms of Democratic and Republican strategy for next year’s campaign. In brief, here are our key findings.

On the national level, given solid, but not exceptional, performance among minority voters, Obama’s re-election depends on either holding his 2008 white college-graduate support, in which case he can survive a landslide defeat of 2010 proportions among white working-class voters, or holding his slippage among both groups to around 2004 levels, in which case he can still squeak out a victory. Conversely, if Republicans can cut significantly into Obama’s white college-graduate support and then replicate the landslide margins they achieved among white working-class voters in 2010, then they are likely to emerge victorious.

On the state level, Obama and the Republicans start the election campaign with 186 and 191 electoral votes respectively from their core states. With the exception of New Hampshire, the additional states Obama and the Republicans need can come from three broad geographic areas: the Midwest/Rust Belt, the Southwest, and the New South. They are all states that were carried by Obama in 2008.

Obama’s ability to keep his coalition of the ascendant together and avoid catastrophic losses among the white working class will be heavily dependent on whether and how much the economy improves.

The six Midwest/Rust Belt swing states (Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) are all marked by slow growth and by a relatively small and slow-growing percentage of voters from communities of color. These states are projected to average around 15 percent minority voters in 2012, ranging from a low of 10 percent in Iowa to a high of 21 percent in Pennsylvania. But this relatively small base of minority voters is supplemented for Democrats by fairly strong support among these states’ growing white college-graduate populations, who gave Obama an average 5-point advantage in 2008. This coalition of the ascendant has produced increased Democratic support in growing areas of these states.

Moreover, the weight of that coalition should be larger in these states in 2012 than in 2008, with an average 3-point increase in the percent of white college graduates and minorities among voters, and a 3-point decline in the percent of white working-class voters. In addition, Obama should also benefit from the fact that Midwestern and Rust Belt white working-class voters tend to be more supportive than in other competitive states, averaging only a 2-point Democratic deficit in 2008.

The poor economic situation, however, weighs heavily on that relative friendliness and it is likely to reduce enthusiasm for Obama among his coalition of the ascendant. That will give Republicans an opening in these states, especially in Ohio. McCain lost the state by only 5 points in 2008, the white working class was notably sympathetic to the GOP even then (McCain carried them by 10 points), and except for Michigan, the economic situation is worse than in the rest of these states. A strong GOP mobilization effort could take the state, especially if there is no significant economic improvement between now and the election.

GOP chances in the other five states are not as good, though Pennsylvania, with the most friendly white working class, and Michigan, with the worst economy, provide serious opportunities. For Obama’s part, his ability to keep his coalition of the ascendant together and avoid catastrophic losses among the white working class in all five states will be heavily dependent on whether and how much the economy improves as we near the election.

The three Southwest swing states (Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico) are all marked by fast growth and by relatively high and growing percentages of minority, chiefly Hispanic, voters. These states are projected to average around 36 percent minority voters in 2012, ranging from a low of 21 percent in Colorado to a high of 52 percent in New Mexico. And the 3-point advantage the growing white college-graduate population gives Obama supplements this solid base of minority voters for Democrats.

This coalition of the ascendant has produced increased Democratic support in most growing areas of these states. Moreover, the weight of that coalition should be larger in these states in 2012 than in 2008, with an average 4-point increase in the percent of white college graduates and minorities among voters, and a 4-point decline in the percent of white working-class voters. Yet compared to the Midwestern and Rust Belt swing states, white working-class voters in the Southwest are quite a bit more friendly to the GOP, averaging a 17-point Republican advantage in 2008.

The difficult economic situation, especially in Nevada and Colorado, is likely to enhance their receptiveness to the GOP, even as it is likely to reduce enthusiasm for Obama among white college graduates and, most worrisome for his campaign, among minorities, where support and turnout among Hispanics could fall significantly. Therefore, even though Obama has the demographic wind at his back, so to speak, the Republicans will have a serious shot at these states. And at least in Nevada and Colorado, without significant economic improvement, even hard mobilization work by the Obama campaign may not be enough to keep them out of GOP hands.

The three New South swing states (Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia) are all marked by fast growth, driven by their burgeoning minority populations. These states are projected to average around 31 percent minority voters in 2012. These voters, with their relatively high concentrations of black voters, gave Obama an average of 82 percent support in 2008, significantly higher than the Southwest swing states’ average of 71 percent.

But in contrast to the Southwest states, white college-graduate voters are significantly more supportive of the GOP, giving McCain an average 16-point advantage in 2008. And white working-class voters in the New South swing states, though they are declining rapidly, are even more pro-GOP than in the Southwest, giving McCain an average 28-point advantage. So the level and strength of the minority vote looms especially large to Obama’s chances in these states.

The difficult economic situations in North Carolina and above all Florida could, however, undercut the minority vote, even as it alienates white college-graduate voters and moves white working-class voters closer to the GOP. Such a scenario would be a recipe for Republican success and the GOP nominee will work hard to make it a reality in 2012. Virginia is more promising for the Obama campaign, with a solid minority vote, a relatively friendly white college-graduate population, a tight link between growing areas and increasing sympathy for the Democrats, and a fairly decent economic situation. A strong effort by Obama in 2012 should have a good chance of keeping this state in his column.

Given the findings in this paper, Obama’s recent steps to define the election on more progressive terms through a commitment to a new jobs and growth program and a deficit reduction plan based on “shared sacrifice” will likely aid the president politically. Public polling over the past year suggests that a sustained posture of defending the middle class, supporting popular government programs, and calling for a more equitable tax distribution will be popular among many key demographic groups necessary to win in the 12 battleground states analyzed here.

The findings in the paper also indicate that Republicans can maximize their chances of victory by focusing almost exclusively on the economy. But they will need to downplay their more divisive positions on religion, social issues, immigration, and the more extreme Tea Party positions on popular government programs such as Social Security and Medicare.

 

The stage is set for a showdown of demographics versus economics in the 2012 election. Each side has clear strengths but also very serious weaknesses as they move into this showdown. Victory will likely go to the side most willing to acknowledge their weaknesses and attack them boldly. This will be no election for the faint-hearted.

Ruy Teixeira and John Halpin are Senior Fellows at American Progress.

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NOVEMBER – Week #4: “Newt Gingrich Inc.”

How the GOP hopeful went from political flameout to fortune

By and , Published: November 26

Anyone who doesn’t believe in an afterlife must not live in Washington. Rarely, however, has reincarnation been so lucrative as it has for the man who now tops some polls for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination.

Former House speaker Newt Gingrich transfigured himself from a political flameout into a thriving business conglomerate. The power of the Gingrich brand fueled a for-profit collection of enterprises that generated close to $100 million in revenue over the past decade, said his longtime attorney Randy Evans.

Among Gingrich’s moneymaking ventures: a health-care think tank financed by six-figure dues from corporations; a consulting business; a communications firm that handled his speeches of up to $60,000 a pop, media appearances and books; a historical documentary production company; a separate operation to administer the royalties for the historical fiction that Gingrich writes with two co-authors; even an in-house literary agency that has counted among its clients a presidential campaign rival, former senator Rick Santorum (R-Pa.).

Separate from all of that was his nonprofit political operation, American Solutions for Winning the Future. Before it disintegrated this summer in Gingrich’s absence, American Solutions generated another $52 million and provided some of the money that allowed the former speaker to travel by private jet and hired limousine.

Along the way, Gingrich has become a wealthy man, earning $2.5 million in personal income last year, according to his financial disclosure form.

As unforgiving as Washington can be, it has long had a soft spot for its has-beens, even those who gave up power in defeat or disgrace.

There is a well-trodden path from Capitol Hill to downtown law and lobbying firms, where former members of Congress can earn a far better living than they did when they were on the taxpayer’s dime — and still have afternoons free for golf.

But that would be a narrow and confining existence for a man who has always considered himself a transformational figure, and even a historic one.

“He just had a vision for being a great citizen,” said Evans, who set up Gingrich’s business operation and served as its chairman. “He looked for ways to participate in the dialogue that was going on.”

In advance of his presidential run, Gingrich disentangled himself from his business empire. His presidential campaign even had to pay $8,400 to Gingrich Productions for the right to use the domain name www.newt.org.

However, some of his dealings have come under new scrutiny as Gingrich’s campaign, which collapsed in June, has experienced a resurrection of its own.

Most controversial has been up to $1.8 million he collected in consulting fees from Freddie Mac, a government-backed firm whose lending practices conservatives blame for creating the conditions that enabled the housing crisis.

Gingrich and his allies portray his financial success as a natural result of a penchant for coming up with big ideas and his flair for selling them. They contend — and there is no evidence to the contrary — that Gingrich has never engaged in lobbying.

“I understood Washington reasonably well, as well as I understand the country reasonably well,” Gingrich said in an interview. “So if you’re looking for strategic advice, I was on the short list of people available, and in the same tradition as [former secretary of state] Jim Baker or anybody else who has been a very, very senior person.”

However, many critics say he was hired because of his influence and access.

“The reason someone would hire Gingrich was that he was former speaker of the House, he had good connections to Republicans and good knowledge of how Washington works,” said Bill Allison, editorial director of the Sunlight Foundation, which tracks lobbying and money in politics. “He may have steered clear of what the legal definition of lobbying is. But people were hiring him for the same reasons that they hire lobbyists, which was to help them achieve their objectives with the government.”

In one 2004 presentation, his Center for Health Transformation think tank enticed prospective members with “access to Newt Gingrich” and “direct Newt interaction,” as well as “access to top transformational leadership across industry and government.”

Newt Inc.’s start

What has become known as Newt Inc. had a modest beginning, a few months after his unceremonious resignation as speaker in the wake of GOP losses in the 1998 midterm elections. Gingrich’s tenure as speaker had been a bumpy one, begun in the glory of the first House takeover by Republicans in 40 years but later beset by an ethics inquiry, a government shutdown and even an attempted coup by other GOP House leaders. His fellow Republicans had come to regard Gingrich as a liability.

Cast out by official Washington, Gingrich gathered his most loyal friends to figure out what to do next.

“It was the first time he had been unemployed since grad school. He had to figure out how to earn a living,” said Steve Hanser, who was chairman of the history department at West Georgia College when Gingrich taught there in the early 1970s and has been a mentor to him since.

Those at the session, according to various recollections, included Hanser; Gingrich’s attorney, Evans, who had also been his student at West Georgia and had at one point lived in Gingrich’s basement; Nancy Desmond, a onetime campaign volunteer who had been chief of staff in Gingrich’s Georgia congressional office; and Gingrich’s daughter Kathy Lubbers.

Most of his tight circle would later share in Gingrich’s business ventures, holding ownership stakes in its various private subsidiaries, as would his third wife, Callista.

“This is the core group of people who stood by him during his fall, when he stepped down from the House, went through the divorce, all of that,” said one former business associate, who requested anonymity in order to speak candidly. “So these are the people he will stand by, no matter what.”

Gingrich’s financial situation in those days was made all the more dire by the fact that he had already gone through one expensive divorce, and it would soon be followed by another.

“The point was, he needed money. The question was, what can you do?” Hanser said. “In almost all of the years I knew him, he was broke — mostly owing money.”

As they discussed his options, Gingrich was clear about what he did not want to do. He would not pitch a commercial product, as his former Senate counterpart Bob Dole was then doing for the erectile dysfunction drug Viagra, or as any number of other former celebrities had done in those “Do you know me?” ads for American Express.

He wanted to make sure his new life allowed time for thinking, learning and, a favorite pastime, visiting zoos.

Gingrich also said he wouldn’t lobby. Asking his old congressional colleagues for favors would be demeaning for himself and the speakership he once held, he said.

And what constitutes lobbying?

“Anything that looks like, smells like, walks like an attempt to influence legislation on behalf of a client for money,” Evans said. He added that, internally, the organization applied what it called “the Washington Post test: If The Washington Post considered it lobbying, so did we.”

But that left plenty of other ways to make a living. The easiest and most obvious: hitting the lecture circuit, which Gingrich quickly did, along with signing on as a Fox News commentator. All of which boosted sales of his books and documentaries.

“I was charging $60,000 a speech on the road, and I was doing 50 to 80 speeches a year,” Gingrich recalled. “So take the books, where you could often do things with the speeches, go to a book signing at a place where you’re going to give a speech, and then you’re on television, so people can remember what you are doing.”

On Saturday at a Books-A-Million in Naples, Fla., more than 500 ticket holders lined up and waited for hours to have their books, T-shirts or other memorabilia signed by Gingrich and his wife. With two titles by the former speaker available and a children’s title by Callista, store officials said they had sold at least 400 books.

Trying consulting

Slower to get started was his consulting practice.

“We didn’t make any money for quite a while,” said Hanser, who recalled that it took at least a year to turn even a modest profit.

When a corporation signed on as a client, Gingrich said, he would throw in a couple of speeches gratis, “so just the market value of that was over $100,000. It was a deliberately integrated strategy.”

Gingrich thought of himself as a big-concept guy, and his high-altitude approach did not always mesh with the more prosaic concerns of his clients.

In 2001, for instance, he signed up as a consultant with the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America, one of Washington’s most powerful and well-funded industry lobbying groups. One former PhRMA executive recalled the contract as being “in the neighborhood” of $150,000 — substantial, but not a huge sum by association standards.

“We were reluctant to bring him on, because it was shortly after he left the speakership and because he was so radioactive,” said the former PhRMA executive, who still works in the industry and spoke on the condition that he not be identified. “But he was doing some of the best thinking at the time on health care.”

Still, while PhRMA was concerned about issues such as protecting U.S. manufacturers from cheap, re-imported drugs, Gingrich was counseling the industry to upend its business model. At one point, he urged PhRMA to set up a Travelocity-like Web site where consumers could compare drug prices at, say, Wal-Mart with those at CVS.

That idea and many others did not go over well with PhRMA officials. In early 2002, they let Gingrich’s contract expire.

Gingrich began to consider setting up an enterprise where he would be in charge of the agenda. His for-profit Center for Health Transformation, which opened in 2003, ultimately became his biggest financial bonanza.

Corporations and industry groups lined up to join the think tank’s roster of supporters, paying annual “membership levels” that ranged from $20,000 to $200,000.

So what did businesses get out of associating with Gingrich?

“In addition to advice on their business models, people want to feel that they’re part of the discussion here in Washington,” said former Gingrich aide Ed Kutler, who is now a Washington lobbyist and took some of his clients to visit the former speaker. “They want to know how to talk about their issues and how to think about Washington.”

One business that saw that as an opportunity was Novo Nordisk, a Denmark-based drug firm that specializes in diabetes treatments. It paid a total of $1.2 million to Gingrich’s foundation over six years as a “founding charter member.”

“It was strictly a business, nonpolitical relationship,” Novo Nordisk spokesman Ken Inchausti said. “We admired his leadership on issues related to health-care delivery systems. We thought the CHT brought something to the table to us in terms of finding ways to help people prevent diabetes.”

Gingrich loaned his celebrity to causes that, whatever their other merits, could also be good for Novo Nordisk’s bottom line. For instance, he was the keynote speaker at Novo Nordisk’s “diabetes summit” in 2005 and joined the company in issuing a “call to action” to fight diabetes in Texas and Georgia.

Gingrich’s consulting business and think tank had more than 300 members and clients, generating gross revenue of nearly $55 million between 2001 and 2010, according to a statement by former Gingrich aide Desmond, who remains chairman and chief executive of the operation.

Since his departure to run for president, however, much of the business operation he built has been struggling to keep going without its star attraction.

Gingrich relinquished ownership of his private holdings, transferring much of it to Gingrich Productions, a company headed by his wife.

Along with his rising fortunes came a change in Gingrich’s lifestyle. As House speaker, he had worn $30 neckties and was known to duck into the discount salon chain Bubbles for haircuts. But as his fortune grew, his tastes and his shopping habits migrated upscale. He ran up bills at Tiffany & Co. that brought embarrassment to his presidential campaign and delight to late-night comedians.

Those bills became public shortly after Gingrich’s campaign fell apart in June — an implosion caused in part by his public disappearance on a cruise in the Greek islands with his wife.

While he had been building his business, some of Gingrich’s expensive lifestyle had been paid for by his nonprofit group, American Solutions for Winning the Future.

American Solutions spent $6.6 million on private air travel through Moby Dick Airways — a private charter service favored by many Republicans — during its four years of existence, amounting to about 13 percent of the group’s budget, according to a Washington Post analysis of disclosure records.

The former business associate of Gingrich’s, who was familiar with his finances, said Gingrich for at least two years insisted upon flying private charter jets everywhere he traveled, with most of the costs — ranging from $30,000 to $45,000 per trip — billed to American Solutions.

Gingrich aides would scramble to come up with American Solutions-related events to justify the billing, even if the actual reason for the trip was something connected to his health-care think tank, book sales or other profit-making venture, this source said.

The tab for private chauffeurs, primarily to ferry Gingrich and his wife, reached $200,000 to $300,000 per year, the source said.

“The unwritten rule was that Newt was doing everything he was doing for American Solutions, even though he clearly wasn’t,” the source said. “It was very excessive.”

Evans, however, disputed that, saying that Gingrich’s attorneys and accountants “flyspecked” every transaction to make sure that it was accounted for properly, and that the appropriate taxes were paid.

“If there was an American Solutions-paid-for plane, there was an American Solutions purpose and event,” Evans said.

The former speaker needed to charter aircraft because he could not make all his commitments on a commercial airline schedule, Evans said, adding that the high cost of his and his wife’s travel was “a product of how much they were going, not how they wanted to get there.”

Gingrich’s travel habits also contributed to his presidential campaign’s near-demise this summer. The campaign disclosed more than $1 million in debt in July, nearly half of which was owed to Moby Dick Airways.

For Gingrich, running for president has meant a big pay cut — and trimming back on luxuries. But in many ways, he suggested in an interview last month, it feels like a return to normal.

“I’ve been flying commercial my whole life,” Gingrich said. “I ran for Congress for five years and lost twice. Yeah, I lived off the land in the ’70s.”

And if the White House doesn’t work out, might he rebuild Newt Inc.?

“Sure,” he said. “I don’t know that I would do anything as big as the center. Certainly, I would have an adequate career.”

 

Staff writer Amy Gardner in Naples and staff researcher Lucy Shackelford contributed to this report.

Published in: 2012 Election, A Challenge, A MUST READ on at7:57 AM Comments (1)

NOVEMBER – Week #4: “Crashing the Party”

 

Hate all the presidential candidates? Use your browser to build a dream ticket.

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’Tis the season for post-partisanship—again. Last week, New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg, the patron saint of anti-Washington babble, flew to the nation’s capital to accuse “both parties” of “promis[ing] their constituents the world” and giving them “debt and a sluggish economy and anemic job growth” instead. Sen. John McCain, meanwhile, predicted that “unless both parties change, then I think [a third party] is an inevitability.” (“We aren’t doing anything for the people,” the Arizona Republican confessed.) Even Rick Perry got in on the act. “This is not the Democrats’ country or the Republicans’ country,” he told a crowd of Iowans. “This is our country.”

If such plague-on-both-your-houses rhetoric sends a thrill up your leg—and if you’d like to see some independent candidate trumpeting similar sentiments during next year’s presidential contest—then Americans Elect is the 501(c)(4) organization for you. Founded in 2010 to “break the gridlock in Washington” and “open up the political process,” as the official literature puts it, Americans Elect isn’t affiliated with any particular politician, at least not yet. It doesn’t have an ideology, or even a platform, really. That’s because AE isn’t a third party so much as a “second way” to nominate a president. “Given the level of frustration with the parties, running outside of the two-party system will be a huge asset in 2012, not a liability,” insists Elliot Ackerman, the group’s COO.

Here’s how it’s supposed to work. Americans Elect gathers the signatures required to get on the ballot in all 50 states. (So far, they’ve collected nearly 2 million—two thirds of their goal.) Meanwhile, the group’s 200,000-plus “delegates” gather at AmericansElect.org, answering questions about their views, assembling heterodox policy platforms, and pledging to support their favorite politicians, military leaders, CEOs, college presidents, and ordinary citizens. As long as you’re a registered voter, you’re welcome to participate. In April 2012, successive rounds of online voting will winnow the sprawling field to six finalists. The six, assuming they all want in, will then have to select a running mate from outside their own party. Finally, in June, an Internet convention will choose a nominee to appear, nationwide, on Americans Elect’s ballot line—and at the fall debates, provided he or she clears 15 percent in the polls. The founders claim they have enough cash to go all the way; they’ve raised $21 million so far, mostly from a handful of hedge funders who have ponied up more than $100,000 apiece. And they believe that new social-media technologies will allow candidates to “make their case directly to the American people [and] create a national presence” much faster than in previous cycles, as the group’s CEO, Kahlil Byrd, puts it.

The plan is clever, and the timing is good. President Obama is saddled with near-fatal polling numbers. The Republican Party is so desperate for an alternative to Mitt Romney that they’ve spent a month entertaining the possibility of President Herman Cain. Even Congress hates Congress, and nine out of 10 Americans are “frustrated” with the state of politics. Nearly two thirds of the country wants an independent candidate to run for president.

There’s only one problem: who, exactly, will lead the charge? Every noteworthy third-party presidential bid in modern American history has centered on a forceful, often familiar personality: Theodore Roosevelt, Robert La Follette, George Wallace, John Anderson, Ross Perot, Ralph Nader. They were potential presidents in search of a path to the White House. But this is the opposite: a path to the White House in search of a potential president. “A nonparty party isn’t how you gain power,” says Princeton historian Sean Wilentz. “It just hasn’t worked that way in American politics. You have to stand for something very clearly—not ‘we don’t like parties’ in the abstract.”

The group’s leaders beg to differ. According to Ackerman, three kinds of candidates will soon emerge to vie for the Americans Elect nomination. The first will simply “come to the site and announce that they want to compete,” he says, “because it’s a $15 million deal to get on the ballot in all 50 states, and we remove that barrier.” The second category will include “folks who are already running” for the Republican nomination and “see this as a great hedging strategy.” Just knowing that there’s a Plan B, according to Ackerman, will allow them to “run without having to tack hard to the right”; after losing the GOP nod, they can simply go the AE route. Finally, Ackerman expects to see a few “draft movements” in which “a bunch of Americans get excited about a particular candidate” and convince him or her to run. Names will begin to surface in December.

There are some early signs of life. Since April, Americans Elect has held more than 150 conversations with roughly 25 potential candidates, among them “sophisticated, longtime political players,” some of whom “currently hold office,” and the “CEO of a large publicly held company” who is “very interested in doing this,” according to Darry Sragow, the group’s political director. While Sragow won’t name names—yet—delegates are already discussing their ideal candidates online. Among the favorites: Jon Stewart, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Al Gore, Al Franken, Herman Cain, Warren Buffett, Buddy Roemer, Hillary Clinton, Jon Huntsman, Howard Dean, Jim DeMint, Colin Powell, and Chris Christie.

The biggest prize would undoubtedly be Hillary, who won 18 million votes in 2008. Rarely a week passes without some pundit speculating about a Clinton-Obama rematch, but so far Hillary’s response has been ice cold: the likelihood “is below zero,” she said in September, adding that she was “out of politics and not interested in being drawn back into it by anybody.” And her circle knows not to contradict her. Asked if a massive draft movement could change Clinton’s thinking, Bob Zimmerman, one of her top 2008 fundraisers, says no way. “Hillary won’t accept the draft,” he predicts. “Americans Elect wouldn’t sway her. I doubt it would persuade anyone. It’s like fantasy baseball for politics.” Even so, it would be intriguing to see how much support for Hillary might resurface in an AE draft. Such a sounding could convince her to rethink her plans for 2016, even as it aids the enemy: how can Obama unite the country, Republicans would chirp, when he can’t even unite his own party?

Other White House wannabes sound more open to AE’s pitch. Reached last week, Howard Dean seemed skeptical, but he did a double take when he heard about some of the strategists involved. “These are the kinds of people I’d sit down with in a heartbeat,” he says. “It would be great to be president.” Meanwhile, Buddy Roemer, the former governor of Louisiana, admits he’s already giving Americans Elect serious consideration—perhaps of necessity, since he’s struggling to crack the 1 percent mark in the Republican race. “I have met with one of their representatives, and I support what they’re trying to do,” Roemer tells Newsweek. “I remain a proud Republican, but I do not dismiss the possibility that sometime, somewhere, someplace, this will be the new system.”

The top target, however, may be Huntsman, who, with his business background, respectful demeanor, and relatively moderate record, best fits the mold of a “centrist” third-party candidate as imagined by “socially liberal, fiscally conservative” Beltway moderates who comprise the bulk of Americans Elect’s leaders and donors. Huntsman spokesman Tim Miller insists that his boss “is a lifelong Republican and he’s going to run for president as a Republican.” But AE’s brass seems to hope he’ll change his mind. Last week, as the group’s press secretary, Ileana Wachtel, was enumerating her organization’s virtues, she just happened to mention his name. “This creates a new opportunity for, like, a Huntsman,” she said. “You know, a guy who is not polling well but definitely has another avenue now to run.”

Fantasy baseball aside, it’s unlikely that any Americans Elect ticket will defy the laws of political gravity and win the White House next November. A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, for example, shows Ron Paul capturing 18 percent of the vote in a three-way race with Obama (44 percent) and Mitt Romney (32 percent), while Bloomberg hovers around 13 percent—impressive numbers, but not nearly impressive enough to actually become president. “Out of the blue, a third-party candidate doesn’t have any better chance than I did when I ran in 1980,” says John Anderson, “even though I got 6 million votes.” Money, as always, is a problem: once a candidate secures the Americans Elect nomination in June, he’s on his own financially, meaning he’ll need to raise $100 million a month, without party support, just to keep up. “Unfortunately, the only people who can compete in a three-way race at this point are billionaires like Bloomberg,” says Ralph Nader, who knows of what he speaks. What’s more, AE’s animating idea—that web-savvy voters are searching for a candidate who is more moderate than Mitt Romney or President Obama—seems flawed; if anything, political websites tend to attract liberals who think that Obama is too conservative and conservatives who think that Romney is too liberal.

The best outcome for Americans Elect, then, may simply be to make a lot of Democrats and Republicans angry—a distinct possibility, given that no one has won the presidency by more than 10 percentage points since 1984. By playing the spoiler, Americans Elect could force the parties to take its direct-democracy methods seriously—and perhaps tinker with their polarizing primary systems in the process. In fact, Ackerman believes that even a single-digit share of the vote could have a long-term impact. That’s because ballot access now begets ballot access later: clear the 50-state hurdle this cycle, plus 2 to 5 percent of the presidential vote, and you’ll be eligible to appear on most ballots in 2014 and 2016. In that scenario, if an extremist defeats a moderate in the primary—think Christine O’Donnell vs. Mike Castle in the 2010 Delaware Senate race—the moderate could simply run for the Americans Elect nomination and go on to clobber his wingnut rival in the general. “What Americans Elects turns into is a trust that removes the verb ‘primaried’ from our political lexicon,” Ackerman says. “And that changes the incentive structure. Folks will no longer be rewarded for political intransigence.” In other words, the “who” of Americans Elect may simply wind up being a means to an end. It’s the “how” that could actually have legs.

With David A. Graham and McKay Coppins

NOVEMBER – Week #4: “A $492 Billion Bet”

 

Dangers Follow From Congress’s Coming Cuts to Defense Spending

Congress is poised to slash defense spending. Great idea—as long as China remains our buddy and the Middle East embraces brotherly love.

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Fort Leavenworth in Kansas is the perfect place to go to think about the U.S. defense budget. The Combined Arms Center is the brain trust of the Army. All the Army’s majors pass through it. Its alums include all the five-star generals of modern times: Arnold, Bradley, Eisenhower, MacArthur, and Marshall. Its former commanders include David Petraeus. To meet its officer-students—nearly all of whom have seen action in Iraq or Afghanistan—is to see what is best about the American military today.

So should we slash the budget that pays these exemplary men and women? Only if you believe the currently fashionable arguments that mankind is getting ever more peaceable, the Middle East is entering a happy new era of democracy and peace, and China does not pose a strategic threat to the U.S.

First, the case for cuts. The U.S. remains a formidable military power. The Department of Defense has total military personnel of 1.4 million, about a fifth of whom are deployed abroad. The U.S. defense budget is larger than those of the next 15 countries combined.

The wars the United States has fought in the last 10 years, in Iraq and Afghanistan, have not come cheap. Since September 2001, lawmakers have provided $1.283 trillion in budget authority for operations in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Afghanistan
U.S. Marines in Afghanistan., Brennan Linsley / AP Photos

Meanwhile, a huge financial crisis has blown a hole in the nation’s finances that urgently needs to be filled. Even if interest rates stay at their current low levels, the growth of the federal debt means that within less than a decade interest payments are likely to exceed the defense budget.

For all these reasons, many in Congress thirst to slash defense. Already this year it has been cut by approximately $465 billion. The president, too, is in a hurry to wind down American involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan. Last month he announced that only 150 U.S. troops will remain in Iraq after the end of the year, down from nearly 50,000 today, ostensibly because of the unwillingness of Iraqi lawmakers to grant U.S. troops immunity from prosecution. He also plans to pull 10,000 troops out of Afghanistan this year and another 22,000 by the end of September 2012.

And more drastic cuts are coming. By Nov. 23, the Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction—the so-called super-committee—is supposed to come up with a plan to reduce the federal deficit by at least $1.2 trillion over 10 years [It did not come up with a plan]. If it fails to do so, automatic sequestrations will kick in in 2013. The effect would be to reduce the regular defense budget (excluding Iraq and Afghanistan) by at least $492 billion between 2013 and 2021, or from 3.4 percent of GDP to 2.7 percent or less.

A report by the House Armed Services Committee’s majority staff estimates that this would cut the Army and Marine Corps from 771,400 personnel today to 571,000. The Navy would go down from 288 ships to just 238. The Air Force would shrink from 1,739 fighters to 1,512 and from 118 bombers to 101. But perhaps the biggest worry is what these cuts would mean for research and development, currently just 11 percent of the Pentagon budget.

Now, it may be that we are entering a period of unprecedented peace and brotherly love. Maybe the Arabs will live happily ever after with new democratically elected leaders. And maybe the Chinese will always be our buddies. But I would not like to bet $492 billion on that. The future I fear is the one that comes after most big financial crises: a period of populist anger, political instability, and cross-border conflict. The youth bubble in the Greater Middle East is at its peak. Resource wars are looming as emerging-market demand outstrips supplies of everything from rare earths to fresh water. And China is already a credible threat to our cybersecurity.

I worry that our national-security strategy is currently being improvised in response to fiscal and domestic political pressures rather than to rational risk assessment. And I remember the old Latin adage: Si vis pacem, para bellum—if you want peace, prepare for war.

As they know only too well at Fort Leavenworth, the converse is also true.

NOVEMBER – Week #4: Campaign Finance

Obama outpaces GOP rivals and his own 2008 results in small donations

By and

Even with low approval ratings and an uncertain path to reelection, President Obama is exceeding expectations in one area: His campaign is doing far better at attracting grass-roots financial support this year than his GOP rivals or his own historic effort in 2008, according to new contribution data.

The sheer scale of small donations, totaling $56 million for Obama and his party, has surprised many Democratic strategists and fundraisers, who feared that a sour economy would make it difficult for Obama to raise money from disenchanted and cash-strapped voters.

A Washington Post analysis shows that nearly half of his campaign contributions, and a quarter of the money he has raised for the Democratic Party, has come from donors giving less than $200. That’s much higher than it was four years ago, and far beyond what the best-funded Republicans have managed.

Mitt Romney and Rick Perry, the leading GOP fundraisers, have instead embraced a traditional approach, focusing on big-dollar contributors who can fill the coffers without the high overhead costs of a campaign targeting small donations, the analysis shows.

Business executive Herman Cain has had more success with small donors, who have helped propel a surge in contributions to the candidate in recent weeks.

A grass-roots-oriented campaign presents both opportunities and risks for Obama, who is already weighed down by the stagnant economy, a glum public mood and signs of disaffection among Democrats.

The focus is rooted in the belief that donors, even if they only give a few dollars, are more committed to their candidate than those who have not written a check.

“The number of small donations shows who it is that supports this president and who put him there,” said Katherine Hahn, a self-described “mom and artist” from Evergreen, Colo., who gives Obama $25 a month. “It wasn’t the powers that be so much as it was people like me.”

But relying on donors of modest means could limit the fundraising ability of the president, who is already showing signs of struggling to bring in big donations. Fewer than 6,000 contributors had given Obama $2,500 or more through September.

That compares with more than 8,000 maxed-out donors to Romney. And if Romney wins the nomination, the same people will be able to give much larger amounts to his campaign and the Republican Party.

“We always knew we needed to build a broad-based support network, and we try not to rely too much on one thing,” Obama campaign manager Jim Messina said in an interview. “Our experience is that people who give become volunteers, and people who volunteer become donors. We want to build a relationship with them.”

Republicans say their eventual nominee will have plenty of time to build widespread excitement after the primaries.

“The role of small donors is the same as large donors – to participate in our campaign community, one that is eager to replace President Obama with a new leader who can get our country back on track,” said Romney spokeswoman Andrea Saul. She said 83 percent of Romney’s donors in the third quarter gave less than $250.

A central part of the Obama campaign’s grass-roots strategy is in swing districts such as Jefferson County, Colo., west of Denver. The county, home to Coors Brewing Co. and the Colorado School of Mines, leans Republican but went decisively for Obama in 2008.

In interviews with a cross-section of donors from the area, Hahn and others said they are backing Obama’s reelection, even if they are disappointed in some aspects of his presidency.

“I think he’s trying very hard,” said retiree James Dunn of Wheat Ridge, who has given Obama $225 so far this cycle. “I am 86 years old and I have never seen such a concentration of lies against a decent man.”

Pat Angel, 71, of Morrison said she gives $25 to the president’s campaign when she can, with another $10 per month from her husband for the Democratic National Committee. Angel helps run the family business, Angels Bail Bonds, and also works full-time at Wal-Mart because she can’t afford to retire.

Despite her struggles, Angel remains loyal to Obama. “I honestly think he is the only hope,” she said. “When I look at the Republican slate I shudder.”

But there are also many donors who supported Obama in 2008 who haven’t returned. Michael Glode, 64, a registered Republican and medical professor in Golden, gave Obama $210 in 2008 — the first political donation of his life — but won’t do so again.

“His biggest mistake was not going directly to the American people with his oratory skills,” Glode said. “I’m pretty disappointed in American politics.”

This year, about 45 percent of the $90 million raised by Obama’s reelection campaign from April through September came from donors who each gave less than $200 in aggregate donations, according to The Post’s analysis of Federal Election Commission records. When money that Obama has helped raise for the DNC is included, the figure is 36 percent.

Either way, the share is higher than in 2008, when about a quarter of the $755 million raised directly for Obama’s campaign came from the smallest donors.

About 9 percent of the $32 million raised by Romney through September came from small donors; the figure for Perry, who raised $17 million, was 4 percent. Several other GOP candidates have notably high percentages of small donors, but their overall fundraising is modest.

One surprise for the Obama campaign was the discovery that, out of more than 1 million donors so far this year, half had never given to him before.

Supporters who make revolving donations get special T-shirts, monthly conference calls with Messina and other goodies as part of “Team 2012,” an effort with more than a passing resemblance to a public-radio fundraising drive. Donors who give as little as $3 can enroll to win dinner with the president.

The campaign has also mounted a program to contact every 2008 supporter by phone or in person, and an effort to recruit students and other young adults.

“The fundamental thing that we believe, and that we bring to all the work online and offline, is that people take action on behalf of a campaign because they feel an emotional connection with it,” said Teddy Goff, the campaign’s digital director. “We are much more focused on how we can give people access to the campaign than on thinking up new tricks or gimmicks.”

NOVEMBER – Week #3: “Income Gap Dooms Supercommittee”

By Peter Orszag – Nov 22, 2011

The supercommittee’s failure to reach a substantial agreement this week is disappointing but unsurprising. The old model of politics, in which bipartisan agreement was the key to success, simply doesn’t work anymore. In the new model, there is almost no overlap in views across party lines, and government function requires either domination by one party (as was the case for much of President Barack Obama’s first two years in office) or more automatic decision-making (as I have suggested elsewhere).

What’s causing today’s hyper-polarization? Although political scientists still debate the issue, a growing body of evidence suggests that, as economists such as Paul Krugman and Ed Glaeser have argued, increases in income inequality may play a significant role.

It is striking that both income inequality and political polarization began to rise sharply in the U.S. in the mid- to late 1970s. Yet many pundits airily dismiss this connection, arguing that because blue states are, on average, higher-income than red states, the link between income and partisanship must be weak. Instead, they attribute increasing political polarization to the gerrymandering of legislative districts. Both of these assertions are empirically false.

Gerrymandering plays a relatively modest role in polarization trends. A more plausible driver is the sorting of the population itself into effectively two different camps. To a stunning degree, Americans are increasingly moving into neighborhoods with other people who have similar incomes and share their political views.

Bill Bishop and Robert Cushing, the authors of “The Big Sort,” and others have documented the way Americans increasingly live near people with similar political views. This residential sorting by political party has occurred despite an ongoing overall decline in housing mobility. And although this phenomenon reflects shifts among families of both parties, James Gimpel and Jason Schuknecht, the authors of “Patchwork Nation,” found that Republicans have been more likely than Democrats to move, even after adjusting for income, race and age.

Americans Sort Themselves

A new study provides a hint about one possible force behind this political segregation: Americans are increasingly choosing to live near people in their own income bracket. According to research by Sean Reardon and Kendra Bischoff of Stanford University, in 1970, almost two-thirds of American families lived in middle-income neighborhoods. By 2007, only 44 percent did. The share of those living in a poor neighborhood, in the same period, more than doubled, from 8 percent to 17 percent. So did the share living in an affluent neighborhood — from 7 percent to 14 percent.

As Reardon and Bischoff conclude, “The increasing isolation of the affluent from low- and moderate-income families means that a significant proportion of society’s resources are concentrated in a smaller and smaller proportion of neighborhoods.” A separate study, by Tara Watson of Williams College, concluded that trends in income inequality can fully explain recent increases in economic segregation.

Does income have anything to do with voting patterns, though? Many pundits have suggested that it doesn’t, and here is where they cite that states generally voting for Democrats are, on average, higher-income than those that vote mostly for Republicans. But an important book by Andrew Gelman, a professor of statistics and political science at Columbia University, “Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State,” shows why such reasoning is flawed: Within any given state, higher-income people are much more likely to vote Republican.

Gelman finds that although, in any state, higher- income people are more likely to be Republican, the link between income and party affiliation in blue states is less dramatic than it is in red ones. In other words, as you move up the income scale in a Democratic state, the proportion of Republicans rises, but not as much as it does in a Republican state. That higher-income people in red states are so much more likely to vote Republican helps explain the blue state-red state conundrum. My personal experience is consistent with this: It is rare to meet a high-income Democrat in a red state.

Nolan McCarty, Keith Poole and Howard Rosenthal reach similar conclusions in their book, “Polarized America: The Dance of Ideology and Unequal Riches.” They find that since the 1950s, a time when the U.S. experienced historically low levels of political stratification by income, “there has been a rather substantial transformation in the economic basis of the American party system. Today, income is far more important than it was in the 1950s. American politics is certainly far from purely class-based, but the divergence in partisan identification and voting between high- and low-income Americans has been striking.”

And so we come full circle. Residential segregation by income has been increasing markedly, and since income is strongly related to voting patterns, this phenomenon may help explain the rise in residential segregation by political party. As we surround ourselves with people like us, we reinforce our own views, and the result is a more polarized population.

The polarized population, in turn, feeds a more polarized political system, which makes governing difficult. Paradoxically, because polarization creates safe bases for each side, it may make the modest number of centrist swing voters ever more crucial to winning presidential elections. And yet, actually governing from the center is increasingly challenging, given the hyper- polarization reflected in Congress.

“United we stand, divided we fall” has been uttered many times in this nation’s history. As we increasingly fall into divided neighborhoods, we shouldn’t be surprised that our Congress cannot stand united.

(Peter Orszag is vice chairman of global banking at Citigroup Inc. and a former director of the Office of Management and Budget in the Obama administration. The opinions expressed are his own.)

To contact the writer of this article: Peter Orszag at orszagbloomberg@gmail.com

To contact the editor responsible for this article: Mary Duenwald at mduenwald@bloomberg.net

NOVEMBER – Week #3: The Iowa Caucus

Iowa GOP caucusers are the real elite

By , Published: November 21

Until the Reform Act of 1832, more than 100 members of the British Parliament were elected from districts that had very few people. These were called rotten boroughs and, while they no longer exist in England, at least one of them does in the United States. It is called Iowa.

Every four years the Rotten Borough of Iowa holds its presidential caucuses. Next year, the only real contest will be in the Republican Party. Last time, 119,000 Iowans participated in the GOP caucus. This amounted, according to Curtis Gans, director of American University’s Center for the Study of the American Electorate, to 0.05 percent of the national electorate — or, to put it another way, 1 / 20th of 1 percent. If the next president is a Republican, there’s a pretty good chance several dozen people in Iowa will have been instrumental in choosing him or her.

Iowa Republicans are a pretty conservative lot. In general, they abhor abortion, gay marriage, Obamacare, the Departments of Education, Energy and Commerce, NPR, support for the arts, the East Coast, the West Coast, strictly secular education, illegal immigrants and their children, the mainstream media and — after reading this — me. But because conservatives dominate the Iowa GOP and because the caucus is the first contest of the election year, they enjoy disproportionate influence over the national party. It is possible to skip Iowa and win the nomination (John McCain), and even possible to win Iowa and lose the nomination (Mike Huckabee), but it’s easiest to win the nomination by winning Iowa — an impossible task for a moderate.

The caucus-primary system is perverse in the extreme. It starts in January in Iowa and New Hampshire when common sense says it ought to begin in Florida and Arizona. The average January low in Des Moines is about 10 degrees; the average Miami low is about 60. This helps explain why many more people go to Miami than Des Moines for the winter. It does not explain why the election season has to start there.

The other perverse effect of the Iowa caucus is that it stands on its head the notion of elite. If you asked the average Iowa Republican who is in the American elite, he or she would say something about bankers or journalists or all those New York-Washington types who supposedly run the country but recently have forgotten how.

Nonsense. The true elite are the scattering of determined folks who will turn out in the dense cold to choose a presidential candidate. Their vote counts for so much more than yours. In fact, if you want to join the true American elite, move to Iowa and register to vote. This is something the Occupy Wall Street crowd does not understand. If they want real influence, they should Occupy Iowa.

The Iowa and New Hampshire contests are greatly romanticized. Big-city journalists embrace the Norman Rockwell qualities of both states and cherish the nostalgic appeal of retail campaigning. But this year, much of the campaigning has been done wholesale — nationally televised debates, TV ads — and, as Politico’s Maggie Haberman has pointed out, “the candidates atop the GOP polls have spent the least amount of time meeting with voters.” Herman Cain, for one, has shown that he is indeed a management specialist by managing to shoehorn a presidential campaign into his book tour.

The primary and caucus system is the product of a reform movement, an effort to curtail the power of political bosses by having party members, not the machine, choose the nominee. But disproportionate power has now shifted to the early primary and caucus voters. The narrowness of the Iowa GOP base helps explain why the 2012 field is in virtual agreement about almost everything — hands raised in unison — and taking positions that dismay many Americans. All but one of the candidates — the odd man out is Jon Huntsman — seem to agree that life begins at conception, making all abortions tantamount to murder. Whoever wins Iowa is going to have to start moderating his or her positions for the general election.

The GOP race this year is a sad affair. Iowa has helped narrow the gate to the nomination so that one-half of the U.S. political system is represented by people who either question evolution or do not have the courage to say otherwise, who pander to ugly anti-immigration sentiment and who feel that it would have been just swell to have let The U.S. financial system fall on its face. Opposing views are missing. This happens with rotten boroughs. There’s no one to debate.

cohenr@washpost.com

NOVEMBER – Week #3: “2012 Iowa Republican Caucus”

Iowa: Gingrich 32%, Romney 19%, Cain 13%

Thursday, November 17, 2011

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has already picked up steam among Republican primary voters nationwide, and now he jumps to the front of the GOP pack among caucus-goers in Iowa.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Iowa Republican caucus-goers shows Gingrich with 32% followed by former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney at 19%. Georgia businessman Herman Cain, who led in Iowa last month, drops to third with 13% of the vote. Texas Congressman Ron Paul draws 10% of the vote in Iowa, while Texas Governor Rick Perry and Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann each grab six percent (6%). (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum draws support from five percent (5%) of caucus-goers while former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman picks up two percent (2%). Only one percent (1%) would prefer some other candidate and six percent (6%) more are undecided.

This is the first caucus survey conducted entirely after last week’s GOP debate on foreign policy. Cain also recently fumbled a response to the administration’s actions in Libya. 

While the top three candidates’ support numbers are similar to what they were in October, the candidates themselves have changed. At that point, Cain was on top with 28%, Romney picked up 21% and Paul came in third with 10%. Gingrich only drew nine percent (9%) support at that time, still slightly below where Cain is now.

Just after Perry officially entered the GOP race, he led Iowa in September with 29% of the vote while Bachmann was second with 18%.  In August, Bachmann and Romney were essentially tied for the lead with Perry in fourth place.

Thirty-eight percent (38%) of Iowa GOP caucus voters are now certain of their vote and don’t expect to change their minds, up from 32% in mid-October. Of those voters who are certain, 30% pick Gingrich, 21% prefer Romney, 16% like Cain and 13% support Paul.

The survey of 700 Likely Iowa Republican Caucus Participants was conducted on November 15, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Ron Paul, while placing fourth overall, is also the candidate Iowa voters least want to see win the nomination. Eighteen percent (18%) hold name Paul as the least favorite candidate followed closely by Bachmann at 15%. Thirteen percent (13%) don’t want to see Romney or Huntsman grab the nomination, while 11% would like to see Cain miss the nod. Only eight percent (8%) name Gingrich as the candidate they least want to see win.

If their favorite candidate does not win the nomination, 77% of Iowa caucus-goers say they’d still vote for the GOP candidate. Twelve percent (12%) would vote for Obama. If Romney wins the nomination, 32% would consider voting for a third-party candidate, with 16% who would be Very Likely to do so.

Only 73% of Romney voters say they’d vote for the GOP candidate if their man does not win the nomination. Among supporters of Gingrich, Cain, and Perry, nine-out-of-ten are committed to voting for the party nominee.

Ninety percent (90%) of Tea Party activists will vote for whoever the party nominates. However, just 69% of non-Tea Party members express that much loyalty to the GOP.

In Iowa, Gingrich and Romney are seen as the most qualified to be president. Seventy-six percent (76%) say Gingrich is qualified while 71% say that of the former governor. Paul and Perry are viewed as qualified by 51%, while 47% say that of Cain and Santorum. Only 44% think Bachmann is qualified to be Commander in Chief, while even fewer (33%) say that of Huntsman. Nationwide, Romney is still viewed as the most qualified for the White House.

Seventy percent (70%) of Iowa caucus-goers say that every one of the GOP candidates would make a better president than Obama. Twenty-four percent (24%) disagree.

Eighty-six percent (86%) of Iowa caucus-goers have followed stories of the sexual harassment allegations leveled against Cain. Forty-two percent (42%) believe the allegations are at least somewhat likely to be both serious and true, and 41% give Cain’s campaign good or excellent marks for its response to the allegations. Twenty-one percent (21%) say the Cain campaign did a poor job handling the allegations. These findings are similar to those found among Republicans nationwide.

In general election matchups with the president nationwide, Romney remains the only Republican candidate who runs competitively against Obama on a consistent basis.  Gingrich and Cain both trail the president by double-digits.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

Published in: 2012 Election, A Challenge, Politics, Polls on November 21, 2011 at8:37 PM Comments (1)

NOVEMBER – Week #3: “The 30-Second Campaign”

Even in the era of the Internet, TV ads still play an enormous role in presidential elections. Can you trust them?
By Stuart Elliott

 

Can a candidate be sold like a soap, soup, or soft drink? That’s the goal of political advertising, which in some ways is similar to, but in others is very different from, its product-peddling counterparts.

Like all advertising, political ads are subjective, presenting a biased point of view. Just as a Ford ad is selling Fords, not other car brands, a political ad is selling a specific candidate. That can sometimes be obscured by the noble trappings in political ads, which are often filled with images of American flags, Mount Rushmore, and the White House.

“Don’t expect you’re going to get objective voter information” from political ads, says Christopher Malone, a political scientist at Pace University in New York. “That’s definitely out of the question.”

Regardless of their reliability, more Americans are going to see political ads this fall. In recent presidential elections, candidates have focused their TV commercials on “battleground” states like Ohio and Florida, pretty much ignoring the rest of the country. This year, there are more battleground states than usual—as many as 20. And both candidates, Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain, are running nationwide ads.

Beyond Buttons

Political advertising has been around since the mid-19th century, but it took the arrival of mass media in the 20th century to elevate its importance. Before there were large daily newspapers, national magazines, or coast-to-coast radio and TV networks, political advertising mostly consisted of buttons, banners, and posters intended to generate turnout at local candidate rallies and at polling places on Election Day.

That began to change when radio’s reach became widespread, and the first national campaign commercials aired in 1928 for Republican Herbert Hoover (who won) and Democrat Al Smith. But the truly seismic shift in presidential campaigning came when television entered the picture in 1952.

That year, a Madison Avenue advertising executive convinced Republican candidate Dwight D. Eisenhower that the sights and sounds of TV offered the quickest, most effective way to get his message across to voters. Eisenhower was promoted in cartoon-style commercials featuring the upbeat slogan “I Like Ike” (his nickname).

Despite concerns that appearing in commercials would diminish his stature, Eisenhower was also the first presidential candidate to appear in TV ads. The short commercials, titled “Eisenhower Answers America,” ran during popular series like I Love Lucy and were a huge hit. (Eisenhower’s opponent, Democrat Adlai Stevenson, thought such commercials undignified and ran half-hour speeches on TV instead. In 1956, when he ran against Eisenhower again, he also appeared in TV commercials.)

Tellingly, it was at the dawn of TV campaign ads that their reputation for shading the truth began to develop. While Eisenhower was seen replying to questions from typical voters on issues like the Korean War and the cost of living, it turned out the answers had actually come before the questions.

Questioners had been recruited to read the questions from scripts after Eisenhower’s “answers” had been filmed, with the order reversed in the editing process.

“Political commercials pretend to be like documentaries, but they use all the techniques of fiction filmmaking, including scripts, performances, and music,” says David Schwartz of the American Museum of the Moving Image in New York.

‘Going Negative’

It did not take politicians long to realize that “going negative” in ads could be extremely effective. In 1964, the campaign of President Lyndon B. Johnson, a Democrat, ran what is often described as TV’s first negative political ad. The so-called “Daisy” spot capitalized on concerns that Johnson’s Republican opponent, Senator Barry M. Goldwater, would not rule out the use of nuclear weapons against America’s enemies. The ad showed a girl in a field, pulling the petals off a daisy and counting up from one. Then her voice was replaced by an official-sounding male voice, counting down from 10 as a prelude to an atomic blast, which filled the screen with a mushroom cloud as the spot ended. The ad was so controversial that it aired once and was never shown again.

It was, however, successful, and other negative ads followed, especially in the campaigns of 1968 and 1972, when Republican Richard M. Nixon ran for election and re-election. His 1968 campaign used advertising so shrewdly that it became the subject of a popular book, The Selling of the President.

“There is undeniably evidence that a certain kind of political advertising—not just negative, but negative and untruthful—can be effective,” says Mike Hughes, president of a Richmond, Va., ad agency. “But I think we have to hold political leaders accountable, telling them ‘You are not fit to run the country if you do that.’ ”

Hughes and others blame the increase in negativity on the fact that most political ads are no longer created by advertising agencies, which, he says, “have to be accurate and truthful” when producing product pitches, but rather by political consultants who specialize in campaign commercials and “don’t have to worry about the lawyers.” That’s because political spots are considered privileged as free speech under the First Amendment, so their content cannot be regulated. By contrast, product ads enjoy less constitutional protection, so false claims can be challenged by the Federal Trade Commission and other regulators.

Negative ads were particularly potent in the 1988 presidential campaign, says David A. Caputo, a political scientist and former president of Pace University. Consultants working for George H.W. Bush, the Republican candidate, produced a variety of aggressive attacks on Michael Dukakis, his Democratic challenger.

Two commercials “were so devastating,” Caputo says, that they entered the realm of political lore. One, showing Dukakis looking silly riding around in a tank, portrayed him as weak on defense. The other was intended to paint Dukakis as soft on crime. It showed an ominous photo of Willie Horton, a convict who raped and assaulted a couple while on a prison furlough granted by Dukakis when he was Governor of Massachusetts.

Taking a lesson from the past, observers say, the 2008 presidential campaign has achieved a level of smear and counter-smear sophistication that is unprecedented.

“The speed with which the Obama campaign can respond to allegations has been quite impressive,” says Sid Bedingfield, a journalism professor at the University of South Carolina.

He adds, “The lesson of the last 20 years is to respond immediately and aggressively, and across a broad front.”

This year, there’s been a lot of discussion about the impact of the Internet—social networking sites, blogs, and YouTube. Despite all the talk of new media, TV is still where Obama and McCain are spending the most money—about $6 million a week.

The TiVo Challenge

“Most of the people who are watching ads online are political junkies who’ve already made up their minds,” says Tobe Berkowitz, a communications professor at Boston University. “The reason the candidates still buy a lot of TV ads is that it reaches people who don’t pay a lot of attention to the campaign.”

But that doesn’t mean the Internet and other new technologies aren’t changing the rules of the game. One challenge for the 2008 campaigns is how to deal with technology like TiVo that allows viewers to skip the commercials.

“Private-sector companies can do product-placement; candidates can’t do that,” says Dan Schnur, a professor of political science and communications at the University of Southern California. “You’re not going to see Barack Obama fighting terrorists with Jack Bauer. You’re not going to see John McCain on So You Think You Can Dance.”

These challenges may signal the end of TV’s long dominance in campaign advertising. “I think this might be the last big presidential cycle where you see these huge amounts of money spent on television,” Berkowitz says. “In another four years, who knows what it will be.”

NOVEMBER – Week #3: “1960: The First Mass Media Election”

The new medium of television played a decisive role in The race between John F. Kennedy and Richard M. Nixon: ‘image’ ruled, and presidential elections changed forever
By Monica Davey in Chicago

They stood side by side in Chicago, peering out from America’s black-and-white television sets one Monday evening in September 1960: John F. Kennedy, the tanned, photogenic Democratic candidate for President, and his Republican opponent, Richard M. Nixon, who many viewers thought looked pale and sweaty beneath a noticeable 5 o’clock shadow.

The imagery of that first nationally televised presidential debate, one of four that fall, marked a turning point in the election and, more significantly, a sea change in what the nation’s political contests would look like forever after.

In many ways, the 1960 election was the first modern American political campaign, with all its TV-induced stagecraft, symbolism, and microscopic media glare—so evident this year in the race between Senators Barack Obama and John McCain as another new medium, the Internet, scrambles the rules all over again.

“Those debates changed the conversation entirely,” says Larry Sabato, a political scientist at the University of Virginia. “Television is all about image, not substance,” Sabato says, adding, “Kennedy was elected based largely on what happened in those debates.”

More than 70 million people (out of a nation of 179 million) watched that first debate. Vice President Nixon, 47, had been a debater in college and was expected to overwhelm Kennedy. But the 43-year-old Massachusetts Senator, with his TV-friendly poise, seemed to gain support from many people who had questioned his relative inexperience and youth.

Debating Who Won

On a Chicago studio set far more simple and stark than any seen in the 2008 campaign, the pair ticked off answers to fairly dry questions about education, the minimum wage, and the federal debt.

The next day, the nation’s reaction underscored the power of the television tableau: People who had listened to the debate on radio were more likely to think Nixon had “won,” while those who watched it on TV were more likely to think Kennedy came out on top. TV viewers tended to think that Nixon, who was recovering from the flu but had declined to wear makeup, looked awful, right down to his light gray suit, which made him blend into the studio’s backdrop. Impressions of viewers from Nixon’s hometown of Whittier, Calif., made clear just how indelible the television images had been—even to an exceptionally friendly crowd.

“He looked sick, but also a little unsure,” Albert W. Upton, who had been Nixon’s drama coach at Whittier College, told The New York Times. And Nixon’s former law partner, Thomas Bewley, said, “Dick just didn’t look good. His…clothes were wrong. He didn’t have the old spirit.”

‘The Action Is in the Studios’

Nixon learned his lesson: In the three debates that followed, he wore a darker suit and makeup and didn’t pull his punches, as some felt he had in the first meeting.

Much like the Internet today, television seemed to become ubiquitous overnight: By 1960, 90 percent of American homes had a set. The new medium forced candidates and campaigns to evolve on the fly: That year, Nixon and Kennedy both appeared on The Jack Paar Show, the precursor of The Tonight Show. TV ads, first used in the 1952 presidential election by Republican Dwight D. Eisenhower, became a critical part of elections in 1960. Historian Theodore White, who wrote about the 1960 campaign, said: “Television is the political process; it’s the playing field of politics. Today, the action is in the studios, not in the backrooms.”

Nixon’s commercials trumpeted his experience as Eisenhower’s Vice President, promised to keep America safe during the Cold War with the Soviet Union, and warned that Kennedy would raise taxes. Kennedy’s ads presented him as ready to lead during a time of great tension in the world, highlighted his commitment to create jobs and equal opportunities for all Americans, and questioned whether Nixon was exaggerating his experience. (One ad showed a clip of President Eisenhower in which he was unable to name a single major contribution by Nixon as Vice President.)

Americans were riveted. With Eisenhower finishing up his second term and unable to run again, neither candidate had the advantage of incumbency. And Kennedy was seeking to become the first Roman Catholic in the White House—as dramatic a first in 1960 as those possible this year when a black man, Obama, could become President, or a woman, Governor Sarah Palin of Alaska, could become Vice President.

That November, the election was decided by the narrowest margin in decades, with Kennedy winning the popular vote by a fraction of 1 percent—fewer than 120,000 votes. The close margin set off a debate about whether fraud had changed the outcome in places like Illinois, which Kennedy won. In Chicago, Mayor Richard J. Daley (his son is Mayor today) held off releasing results until hours after the polls closed. Almost 50 years later, the extent of voting shenanigans in 1960 and whether they actually affected the result is still hotly debated.

After a dramatic inauguration in January 1961, President Kennedy, with a young, attractive family that intrigued the nation, went on to use the media in ways that no President had before. He invited photographers into the White House to take candid photos of him and his family, helping to create the Kennedys’ Hollywood-like mystique. He allowed his presidential press conferences to be televised live—after which he would analyze tapes of his performance, right down to the lighting and camera angles.

Cuba Crises

Kennedy’s brief presidency was most notable for several dramatic developments in the Cold War. In April 1961, in an effort to overthrow the new Cuban dictator, Fidel Castro, he ordered the disastrous Bay of Pigs invasion by a group of C.I.A.-trained Cuban exiles. Many were killed or captured, and an embarrassed Kennedy found himself negotiating for the return of survivors.

In October 1962, after seeing evidence that the Soviet Union was installing nuclear missiles in Cuba, Kennedy ordered a Naval blockade of the island nation, which is only 90 miles from Florida. After 13 tense days in which Washington and Moscow were on the brink of nuclear war, the Cuban Missile Crisis ended when the Soviets backed down and removed the missiles.

A little more than a year later, on Nov. 22, 1963, Kennedy was assassinated as he rode in a motorcade in Dallas; Vice President Lyndon B. Johnson of Texas, who was two cars behind in the motorcade, took the presidential oath that afternoon. In case anyone doubted the impact of the 1960 presidential election, consider this: Despite the fact that millions of households around the nation watched the Kennedy-Nixon debates, no debates between the major-party candidates for President were held during general elections for the next 15 years. In large part, that was because incumbent candidates found ways to decline them: 1960 made it clear just how risky they could be.

From TV to YouTube

But starting with the 1976 race between Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter, debates became the norm, a high-pressure requirement for any presidential hopeful. And the intense spotlight of TV meant that witty soundbites and campaign blunders became iconic moments in presidential races.

In 1976, President Ford misspoke when he said that Poland, at the time still a Communist satellite, was independent of the Soviet Union; it was a gaffe that haunted him through Election Day, when he lost. In 1984, President Ronald Reagan, who some thought had grown too old for the job, effectively put the question to rest by lightheartedly pledging during a debate not to “make age an issue” for Walter Mondale, his younger Democratic opponent. In 1992, President George H.W. Bush was seen impatiently checking his watch while debating Ross Perot and Bill Clinton, who went on to win the election.

This year, debates, soundbites, and campaign-trail miscues could also have a dramatic impact in November, amplified all the more by the 24/7 nature of cable TV and the Web.

“That 1960 race changed a lot, and you can see its impacts still,” says Vanessa B. Beasley, a communications professor at Vanderbilt University. “It changed who ran for office.”

“And now, in an age of YouTube, image matters even more,” Beasley adds. “It’s more important than ever that a candidate be telegenic, and that he act not too hot and not too cool. We’re watching for all of it.”

NOVEMBER – Week #3: “The Romney Advantage”

by Mark Halperin
Sunday, November 13, 2011

He’s the early-state, polling and fundraising leader, who may be poised to win both Iowa and New Hampshire and end this thing early, without a serious challenge from anyone.
But no non-incumbent of either party has won a presidential nomination without an existential scare (or two) on the road to victory and it is hard to imagine one of the weakest frontrunners in modern American history breaking that pattern.
And, yet, Romney has a lot of secret weapons up his sleeve that will help him end the nomination fight at the start — or serve him well if he ends up in an extended battle with one or more rivals.
1. Iowa muscle: In a late-starting cycle where even the best organized candidates have laughably little in place compared to past years, Romney’s team has been quietly working for months, with a small paid staff and tons of supporters from 2008, to put together what could be the best organization in the race. Not bad for a guy who has kept expectations low by barely visiting the Hawkeye State.
2. Oppo on all: With months to prepare, the Romney campaign, headed by the meticulous Matt Rhoades, a former opposition research master, has put together detailed dossiers on anyone and everyone who might stand in Romney’s way to the White House. They so far have unfurled precious little of what they have — but make no mistake, they are prepared to blast away at whomever ends up emerging as a threat.
3. The inoculation against Romneycare: Although Romney’s Massachusetts health care venture will certainly come up again, most likely in paid communication, for now, what was thought to be a crippling liability is barely mentioned in the debates and on the campaign trail, either by Romney’s rivals or voters. By getting so much oxygen early on, before most citizens were paying attention, the controversial plan became an asked-and-answered issue in the minds of much of the press.
4. Media cards to play: Romney has pursued a low-profile strategy, turning down most interviews across all categories and platforms. But if he gets in trouble, he can turn to earned media to try to bail himself out. Because he has created pent-up demand, Romney could appear on “60 Minutes,” get ample time on “Meet the Press” and adorn front pages and magazine covers wherever he chooses.

5. Endorsements galore: State, federal and local officials from sea to shining sea already have told the Romney campaign they are ready to publicly sign on with Mitt, but for a variety of tactical reasons, the campaign is holding them in reserve, to roll out as needed. They can be used to show momentum leading up to the January voting, or serve as a firewall if Romney stumbles.
6. That bank account: No other candidate in the race (with the possible exception of Jon Huntsman) has the vast personal resources to drop in as needed for a flurry of last-minute spending on TV ads and other expensive goodies. Romney has been smart and disciplined about not putting a lot of his own wealth into the race (contrary to his 2008 self-funding approach), but that can change with a stroke of a pen if Boston sees an opening or a crisis.
7. Leading in head to heads: In the latest face-off polls against President Obama, Romney does substantially better nationally and in key states than any of his rivals. That helps him practically and psychologically with voters, donors, reporters and other politicians.
8. Leading in perception: As we hit the homestretch, there is a palpable sense (reflected in polling data) among voters, press, pundits, and even late-night comics that Romney is the most likely to win the nomination — another helpful potential self-fulfilling prophecy.
9. Establishment traction: In Iowa and beyond, Romney remains the only mainline candidate in the race, giving him a near-monopoly on what remains a big chunk of the GOP’s pool of voters. He will have to contest in New Hampshire with Huntsman for this group, but otherwise, this key constituency is mostly going to go to the frontrunner. Even in the era of the Tea Party, that is a healthy portion of the electorate.
10. Knowledge of the delegate rules: If the race goes long past the South Carolina primary and into the spring, Romney’s operation is the only one that has a true, deep understanding of how to win, hold and flaunt delegates. The Obama campaign’s strength in this area was decisive in its victory over Hillary Clinton and Romney would brandish the same advantage.

 

NOVEMBER – Week #3: Comfort the Afflicted & Afflict the Comfortable

FYI:  THESE ARE JUST FOR INFO – NOT TO POST ON

Cain campaign: Live by the media, die by the media

By , Updated: Thursday, November 17, 1:15 PM

For a while, it seemed like businessman Herman Cain had figured out how to succeed in early primary and caucus states without really trying.

Since the former Godfather’s Pizza CEO catapulted to the front of the Republican presidential field on the strength of his performance in the Sept. 23 Florida debate (and a surprising win a a Florida straw poll), Cain has spent just 12 days — either partially or completely — in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida combined. Yes, combined.

If you cut out debates set in those early-voting states, that number goes down to 9; if you cut out book signings — Cain is promoting his book entitled “This is Herman Cain!” — it goes down to a meager 7 visits.

Until the last few weeks, Cain’s lack of attention to the early states hadn’t hurt his rapid rise — thanks to lots (and lots) of generally positive media coverage.

But, now Cain is falling in polls everywhere — including Iowa — thanks to a decidedly negative turn in the media coverage of his campaign and the fact that he has little early-state organization on which to fall back.

“He’s a media candidate and it’s difficult to see how a media candidate succeeds when that media starts turning sour,” said Daron Shaw, a professor at the University of Texas who analyzes the impact of campaign appearances.

 

Joe Raedle

Many lesser-known candidates rely on debates and earned media to get attention. But, unlike Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann or former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum who have regularly visited places like Iowa, Cain’s only outlet for reaching early-state voters is via the media.

Tim Albrecht, a longtime Iowa Republican strategist and the communications director for Gov. Terry Branstad (R), argued that Cain might have curbed his bad national press if he had invested more time in the state.

“Had he put in the time needed here, Iowans would have gotten to know him and could make a determination as to whether they felt there was any merit” to the allegations, Albrecht said. “Because Herman Cain has not taken the time to get to know Iowans, they are left only with the filter of of the media to make their determinations.”

When Cain’s not in Iowa or New Hampshire, where is he?

A detailed examination of Cain’s schedule from late September until now suggests a haphazard schedule without any seeming strategy driving it.

Asked what he was doing in Wisconsin on Monday, for example, Cain explained that some of his staffers were from the state and wanted to tailgate at a Packers-Vikings game. “My chief of staff and my assistant, they wanted to go to a football game, and I said yes!” Cain told reporters. Um, ok.

Cain is stepping up his appearances in early states this week with stops in Iowa, New Hampshire and Florida. But, with polling showing that his moment may be passing, it looks to be too little, too late.

© The Washington Post Company

Published in: FOR FUN on at7:50 PM Comments (3)

NOVEMBER – Week #3: Your “Green” Money & Where it Went?

 

Obama Campaign Backers and Bundlers Rewarded With Green Grants and Loans

Where did green-energy cash go? Straight to campaign donors.

by  | November 12, 2011 1:30 PM EST

 

When President-elect Obama came to Washington in late 2008, he was outspoken about the need for an economic stimulus to revive a struggling economy. He wanted billions of dollars spent on “shovel-ready projects” to build roads; billions more for developing alternative-energy projects; and additional billions for expanding broadband Internet access and creating a “smart grid” for energy consumption. After he was sworn in as president, he proclaimed that taxpayer money would assuredly not be doled out to political friends. “Decisions about how Recovery Act dollars are spent will be based on the merits,” he said, referring to the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009. “Let me repeat that: decisions about how recovery money will be spent will be based on the merits. They will not be made as a way of doing favors for lobbyists.”

Really?

It would take an entire book to analyze every single grant and government-backed loan doled out since Barack Obama became president. But an examination of grants and guaranteed loans offered by just one stimulus program run by the Department of Energy, for alternative-energy projects, is stunning. The so-called 1705 Loan Guarantee Program and the 1603 Grant Program channeled billions of dollars to all sorts of energy companies. The grants were earmarked for alternative-fuel and green-power projects, so it would not be a surprise to learn that those industries were led by liberals. Furthermore, these were highly competitive grant and loan programs—not usually a hallmark of cronyism. Often fewer than 10 percent of applicants were deemed worthy.

Nevertheless, a large proportion of the winners were companies with Obama-campaign connections. Indeed, at least 10 members of Obama’s finance committee and more than a dozen of his campaign bundlers were big winners in getting your money. At the same time, several politicians who supported Obama managed to strike gold by launching alternative-energy companies and obtaining grants. How much did they get? According to the Department of Energy’s own numbers … a lot. In the 1705 government-backed-loan program, for example, $16.4 billion of the $20.5 billion in loans granted as of Sept. 15 went to companies either run by or primarily owned by Obama financial backers—individuals who were bundlers, members of Obama’s National Finance Committee, or large donors to the Democratic Party. The grant and guaranteed-loan recipients were early backers of Obama before he ran for president, people who continued to give to his campaigns and exclusively to the Democratic Party in the years leading up to 2008. Their political largesse is probably the best investment they ever made in alternative energy. It brought them returns many times over.

 

obama-green-cash-fe05

Illustration by Oliver Munday for Newsweek

 

These government grants and loan guarantees not only provided access to taxpayer capital. They also served as a seal of approval from the federal government. Taxpayer money creates what investors call a “halo effect,” in which a young, unprofitable company is suddenly seen to have a glowing future. The plan is simple. Invest some money, secure taxpayer grants and loans, go public, and then cash out. In just one small example, a company called Amyris Biotechnologies received a $24 million DOE grant to build a pilot plant to use altered yeast to turn sugar into hydrocarbons. The investors included several Obama bundlers and fundraisers. With federal money in hand, Amyris went public with an IPO the following year, raising $85 million. Kleiner Perkins, a firm that boasts Obama financier John Doerr and former vice president Al Gore as partners, found its $16 million investment was now worth $69 million. It’s not clear how the other investors did. Amyris continues to lose money. Meanwhile, the $24 million grant created 40 jobs, according to the government website recovery.gov.

One might think that the Department of Energy’s Loan Program Office, which has doled out billions in taxpayer-guaranteed loans, would be directed by a dedicated scientist or engineer. Or perhaps a civil servant with considerable financial knowledge. Instead, the department’s loan and grant programs are run by partisans who were responsible for raising money during the Obama campaign from the same people who later came to seek government loans and grants. Steve Spinner, who served on the Obama campaign’s National Finance Committee and was a bundler himself, was the campaign’s “liaison to Silicon Valley.” His responsibilities included fundraising, recruiting more bundlers, and managing Obama’s relationship with a cadre of very wealthy donors. After the 2008 campaign, Spinner joined the Department of Energy as the “chief strategic operations officer” for the loan programs. A lot of the money he helped hand out went to that same cadre of wealthy Silicon Valley campaign donors. He also sat on the White House Business Council, which is made up of Obama-supporting corporate executives.

Another Obama fundraiser positioned to lead the allocation of taxpayer money to Obama contributors was Sanjay Wagle, who served as the managing co-chairman of Cleantech & Green Business Leaders for Obama. Wagle’s day job was as a principal at VantagePoint Venture Partners. After the 2008 election, Wagle joined the Obama administration as a “renewable energy grants adviser” at the Department of Energy. VantagePoint owned firms that would later see federal loan guarantees roll in.

 

Jonathan Silver, who would serve as director of the loan programs, had worked in the Clinton administration, first as counselor to the secretary of the interior and later as assistant deputy secretary in the Department of Commerce. Silver’s wife has served as financial director of the Democratic Leadership Council. His business partner, Tom Wheeler, was an Obama bundler, and Wheeler’s wife was an outreach coordinator for the campaign. Silver’s “strategic adviser” was Steve Spinner.

The grants themselves originated in the office of Cathy Zoi, who served as the assistant secretary of energy for efficiency and renewable energy. (Wagle was her adviser.) Zoi had previously worked in the Clinton White House as the chief of staff on environmental policy, then as the CEO of Al Gore’s Alliance for Climate Protection. You may be thinking, “So what? Why would we expect anything less of political appointees?” But the numbers don’t lie: the recipients of loans and grants were, overwhelmingly, Obama cronies.

The Government Accountability Office has been highly critical of the way guaranteed loans and grants were doled out by the Department of Energy, complaining that the process appears “arbitrary” and lacks transparency. In March 2011, for example, the GAO examined the first 18 loans that were approved and found that none were properly documented. It also noted that officials “did not always record the results of analysis” of these applications. A loan program for electric cars, for example, “lacks performance measures.” No notes were kept during the review process, so it is difficult to determine how loan decisions were made. The GAO further declared that the Department of Energy “had treated applicants inconsistently in the application review process, favoring some applicants and disadvantaging others.” The Department of Energy’s inspector general, Gregory Friedman, who was not a political appointee, chastised the alternative-energy loan and grant programs for their absence of “sufficient transparency and accountability.” He has testified that contracts have been steered to “friends and family.”

Friends indeed. These programs might be the greatest—and most expensive—example of crony capitalism in American history. Tens of billions of dollars went to firms controlled or owned by fundraisers, bundlers, and political allies, many of whom—surprise!—are now raising money for Obama again.

NOVEMBER – Week #3: Amending The Constitution

Balanced budget amendment falls short in the House

By


(Joshua Roberts – BLOOMBERG)

The House on Friday fell short of approving a balanced budget amendment to the Constitution, as the Republican majority failed to secure the support of enough Democrats to give the measure the two-thirds necessary for passage.

The measure, which is nearly identical to a balanced budget amendment that passed the House in January 1995, received 261 “yes” votes and 165 “no” votes.

Only 25 Democrats joined most Republicans in voting in favor of the amendment, which would need to secure two-thirds in the Senate as well as be ratified by three-quarters of the states in order to take effect.

The level of Democratic support fell far below the 72 House Democrats who voted in favor of the balanced budget amendment 16 years ago. Most of the Democrats voting “yes” on Friday were members of the conservative Blue Dog Coalition.

Four Republicans – Reps. Paul Ryan (Wis.), Louie Gohmert (Texas), Justin Amash (Mich.) and David Dreier (Calif.) – also voted “no” on Friday. Ryan’s office explained that the Wisconsin Republican was concerned that the version of the BBA on the floor would have led to larger government; Dreier explained in floor remarks on Thursday that while he had supported the 1995 measure, he had since come to believe that Congress did not need to amend the Constitution in order to balance the budget.

Friday’s vote marked the first time in 16 years that the House voted on a balanced budget amendment. The vote was called for by August’s debt-ceiling legislation; the Senate must hold its own balanced budget vote before late December.

That the measure fell short marks a defeat for House Republicans, who had opted for a more-moderate version of the measure in the hope of securing support from Democrats.

But in a heated floor debate Thursday and Friday, Democrats voiced strong opposition, arguing that it would lead to the dismantling of cherished entitlement programs.

“It’s unbalanced, unneeded and will undermine our struggling economy,” Rep. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) said. “The Republicans want us to mangle the Constitution because they cannot manage this institution. This amendment is a means to an end. It’s a means for Republicans to end Medicare, to end Social Security and Medicaid, to end every anti-poverty program.”

“And why?” Markey added. “Because they harbor an ancient animosity toward all of those programs, and their plan is to leave them as debt-soaked relics of an era where we actually cared about poor people, the elderly in our country.”

Republicans strongly defended the measure, and several members called Friday’s vote one of historic importance. Rep. Phil Gingrey (R-Ga.) on the floor described it as “the most important vote that I will have cast in nine years.”

“We have proven that we do not have the discipline to balance the budget of this country. … This is an opportunity for us not only to show that fiscal responsibility that the 75 percent of the country want us to show, but also that they want us to show that spirit of bipartisanship: break the gridlock,” Gingrey said.

NOVEMBER – Week #3: “Why there’s a debt stalemate”

By , Published: November 20

We haven’t had the robust democratic debate about the role of government that lies at the heart of America’s budget stalemate. The truth is that most Democrats and Republicans want to avoid such a debate because it would force them into positions that, regardless of ideology, would be highly unpopular. This does not mean that the congressional supercommittee, charged with making modest cuts in deficits, need fail. There is a basis for honorable compromise. Squandering it — as seems increasingly likely — would confirm politicians’ preference for fighting over governing.

Contrary to much press coverage, the committee’s Republicans opened the door to compromise by abandoning — as they should have — opposition to tax increases. Sen. Patrick Toomey of Pennsylvania proposed a tax “reform” that would raise income taxes by $250 billion over a decade. First, he would impose across-the-board reductions of most itemized deductions and use the resulting revenue gains to cut all tax rates. Next, he would adjust the rates for the top two brackets so that they’d be high enough to produce the $250 billion. All the tax increase would fall on people in the top brackets.

Senate Democratic Whip Dick Durbin called Toomey’s proposal a “breakthrough.” With good reason: It came from a “no new taxes, over my dead body” Republican who had signed Grover Norquist’s pledge against any tax increases. But the details of Toomey’s plan are murky, and many Democrats claim that it would cut taxes for the rich. Democrats also didn’t respond with an equal concession: a willingness to deal with Social Security and Medicare.

As is known, these “entitlements” are the central cause of long-term budget deficits. From 2005 to 2035, their cost will nearly double as a share of national income, projects the Congressional Budget Office. How big a government do we want? What’s the balance of fairness between young and old? How much should other programs be reduced or taxes raised? Many Democrats duck the fundamental policy questions and reject any benefit cuts.

Only President Obama can start such a debate. He has the bully pulpit, but he hasn’t used it. Here’s an exchange between ABC White House correspondent Jake Tapper and the president, at a July 15 news conference, that captures Obama’s calculated obscurity.

Tapper: “In the interest of transparency, leadership and also showing the American people that you have been negotiating (with Republicans) in good faith, can you tell us one structural reform that you are willing to make to one of these entitlement programs that would have a major effect on the deficit? Would you be willing to raise the retirement age? Would you be willing to means test Social Security or Medicare?”

Obama: “We’ve said that we are willing to look at all these approaches. I’ve laid out some criteria in terms of what would be acceptable. So, for example, I’ve said very clearly that we should make sure that current beneficiaries as much as possible are not affected. But we should look at what can we do in the out-years, so that over time some of these programs are more sustainable. I’ve said that means testing on Medicare, meaning people like myself, if — I’m going to be turning 50 in a week. So I’m starting to think a little bit more about Medicare eligibility. (Laughter.) Yes, I’m going to get my AARP card soon — and the discounts. But you can envision a situation where for somebody in my position, me having to pay a little bit more on premiums or co-pays or things like that would be appropriate.”

Noncommittal gibberish. There is no leadership from the nation’s “leader.” Space precludes running all his rambling response; the excerpt above was about half. Tapper followed up.

Tapper: “And the retirement age?”

Obama: “I’m not going to get into specifics.”

Well, there you have it. The president won’t talk specifics, but government consists of specifics. The reason we cannot have a large budget deal is that Americans haven’t been prepared for one. The president hasn’t educated them, and so they can’t support what they don’t understand. Left or right, there are no comfortable positions. No one relishes curbing Social Security or Medicare benefits. But without changes, taxes will go way up, the rest of government will shrink dramatically or huge deficits will persist.

What we could have is a small budget deal. Deficits over the next decade could easily exceed $9 trillion; proposals by Republicans and Democrats might cut this by about $1.5 trillion. Toomey’s concession created a basis for a negotiation, if both sides wanted an agreement. Small successes today could rebuild trust, leading to larger successes tomorrow. Failure will further corrode the public’s already rock-bottom confidence in its political “leaders.”

NOVEMBER – Week #3: Full Civics Literacy Quiz

Take the quiz – see how you do and record your results in the comment box with your name and date.

20 pts EC for anyone who completes it along with a comment about what you thought by Sunday at noon.

 

http://www.isi.org/quiz.aspx?q=FE5C3B47-9675-41E0-9CF3-072BB31E2692&AspxAutoDetectCookieSupport=1

Published in: Class Activities/Discussion on at6:15 AM Comments (11)

NOVEMBER – Week #2: “How to Turn Republicans and Democrats Into Americans”

How to Turn Republicans and Democrats Into Americans

An insider’s six-step plan to fix Congress

By Mickey Edwards

Angry and frustrated, American voters went to the polls in November 2010 to “take back” their country. Just as they had done in 2008. And 2006. And repeatedly for decades, whether it was Republicans or Democrats from whom they were taking the country back. No matter who was put in charge, things didn’t get better. They won’t this time, either; spending levels may go down, taxes may go up, budgets will change, but American government will go on the way it has, not as a collective enterprise but as a battle between warring tribes.

If we are truly a democracy—if voters get to size up candidates for a public office and choose the one they want—why don’t the elections seem to change anything? Because we elect our leaders, and they then govern, in a system that makes cooperation almost impossible and incivility nearly inevitable, a system in which the campaign season never ends and the struggle for party advantage trumps all other considerations. When Democrat Nancy Pelosi became speaker of the House, the leader of the lawmaking branch of government, she said her priority was to … elect more Democrats. After Republican victories in 2010, the Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell said his goal was to … prevent the Democratic president’s reelection. With the country at war and the economy in recession, our government leaders’ first thoughts have been of party advantage.

This is not an accident. Ours is a system focused not on collective problem-solving but on a struggle for power between two private organizations. Party activists control access to the ballot through closed party primaries and conventions; partisan leaders design congressional districts [Gerrymandering]. Once elected to Congress, our representatives are divided into warring camps. Partisans decide what bills to take up, what witnesses to hear, what amendments to allow.

Many Americans assume that’s just how democracy works, that this is how it’s always been, that it’s the system the Founders created. But what we have today is a far cry from what the Founders intended. George Washington and James Madison both warned of the dangers posed by political parties. Defenders of the party system argue that parties—including Madison’s own—arose almost immediately after the nation was founded. But those were not parties in the modern sense: they were factions uniting on a few major issues, not marching in lockstep on every issue, large and small. And while some defend the party system as a necessary provider of cues to voters who otherwise might not know how to vote, the Internet and mass media now make it possible for voters to educate themselves about candidates for office.

What we have today is not a legacy of 1789 but an outdated relic of the late 1800s and early 1900s, when Progressives pushed for the adoption of primary elections [AKA "Primaries"]. By 1916, all but a handful of states had instituted the “direct primary” system, under which a party candidate was selected by a public vote, rather than by party leaders in backroom deals. But the primaries, and the nominating conventions, were open only to party members. This reform was supposed to give citizens a bigger role in the election process. Instead, the influence of party leaders has been supplanted by that of a subset of party activists who are often highly ideological and largely uninterested in finding common ground. In Delaware in 2010, a mere 30,000 of that state’s nearly 1 million people kept Mike Castle, a popular congressman and former governor, off the general-election ballot. In Utah, 3,500 people meeting in a closed convention deprived the rest of the state’s 3 million residents of an opportunity to consider reelecting their longtime senator Robert Bennett. For most of the voters who go to the polls in November, the names on the ballot have been reduced to only those candidates the political parties will allow them to choose between. Americans demand a multiplicity of options in almost every other aspect of our lives. And yet we allow small bands of activists to limit our choices of people to represent us in making the nation’s laws.

I am not calling for a magical political “center”: many of the most important steps forward in our history have not come from the center at all, including women’s suffrage and the civil-rights movement, and even our founding rebellion against the British crown. Nor am I pleading for consensus: consensus is not possible in a diverse nation of 300 million people (compromise is the essential ingredient in legislative decision-making). And I’m not pushing for harmony: democracy depends on vigorous debate among competing views. The problem is not division but partisanship—advantage-seeking by private clubs whose central goal is to win political power. There are different ways to conduct elections and manage our government—and strengthen the democratic process. Here are some suggestions designed to turn our political system on its head, so that people, not parties, control our government.

 

Break the power of partisans to keep candidates off the general-election ballot.

State and local governments have abdicated their responsibility to oversee America’s election process. Not only have they turned the job over to political parties, but they take money from taxpayers to pay for these party functions. Because activists who demand loyalty and see compromising as selling out dominate party primaries and conventions, candidates who seek their permission to be on the November ballot find themselves under great pressure to take hard-line positions. This tendency toward rigidity—and the party system that enables it—is at the root of today’s political dysfunction.

More and more, voters are opting out of that system. In some national surveys, nearly 40 percent of voters describe themselves as “independent.” In Massachusetts, where the Republican senator Scott Brown won the seat previously held by the Democrat Edward Kennedy, the largest numbers of voters are not Democrats or Republicans but “unenrolled.” In 2010, Californians voted to create an “open primarysystem in which every candidate for a particular office, regardless of party, will appear on the same ballot, and every voter who wishes to participate, also regardless of party, will be able to choose among them. The top two will advance to the general election, even if they belong to the same party. Louisiana has long had a top-two, everybody-runs primary system, and Washington State adopted a similar one in 2004. Their voters have a much wider range of options—Republicans, Democrats, independents, third- or fourth-party candidates. If all candidates could get their messages out through free mailings or free television time, minor-party candidates would have a better chance of finishing in the top two in an open primary than on a general-election ballot that pits two major-party giants against each other and discourages supporters of other parties from voting for long-shot candidates.

Just the act of establishing an open primary would break the partisan and ideological chokehold on the general-election ballot and create a much truer system of democratic self-government. As a result, members of Congress would have greater freedom to base their legislative decisions on their constituents’ concerns and on their own independent evaluations of a proposal’s merits. They would be our representatives, not representatives of their political clubs.

 

Turn over the process of redrawing congressional districts to independent, nonpartisan commissions.

In 1976, I became the first Republican elected to Congress in my Oklahoma district in 48 years. Nearly three-quarters of the voters were Democrats. Because I easily won my next two races, Democrats were pessimistic about their ability to recapture the seat, and they used their majorities in the state legislature to redraw [Gerrymander] the district’s borders. Instead of encompassing a single urban county (Oklahoma City, in the center of the state), my new district stretched north to Kansas and east nearly to Arkansas, in a huge upside-down L. The goal was to put as many Republicans as possible in my district ["Packing"] in order to make neighboring districts, from which those Republicans had been removed, safer for Democrats. My new district was much more rural, embracing five new counties filled with wheat farms and cattle ranches. Rather than being represented by a member of their own community, familiar with their concerns (which is why the Constitution requires that senators and representatives be inhabitants of the states that elect them), these voters were “represented” by a congressman unfamiliar with the agricultural issues on which their livelihoods depended. And the urban and diverse communities I had represented in Oklahoma City were now served by a congressman who simultaneously had to represent a very different constituency.

In the end, the strategy failed; the state became more conservative, and in addition to my own district remaining Republican, adjoining districts also began electing Republicans. And the attempt to lock in party advantage had sacrificed the important constitutional guarantee that a legislator serve as the voice of a community; community interests had been subordinated to the interests of a political party.

Things don’t have to be this way. Although legislative majorities continue to draw district lines in most states, 13 states (most recently, California) have established nonpartisan or bipartisan redistricting commissions, and two additional states have created merely “advisory” commissions. The systems vary—some use commissions to propose plans that legislatures must approve; others strip the legislature of all redistricting authority—but each of the 13 recognizes that the partisan drawing of congressional-district boundaries has hurt the democratic process, leaving elected officials dependent on, and beholden to, the party bosses who draw their districts.

 

Allow members of any party to offer amendments to any House bill and—with rare exceptions—put those amendments to a vote.

On the day I was sworn in as a member of Congress, all of us “newbies”—including Al Gore, Dick Gephardt, Dan Quayle, David Stockman, and Jim Leach—were a single band. But moments after taking the oath of office, we were divided into rival teams: first came the vote to elect a new speaker, then to adopt House rules written by the majority, then to consider the membership of committees, with party ratios decided by the majority. From that moment on, during the 16 years I served in Congress, and every day since my last term ended, I have seen the United States Congress as it actually functions, not as a gathering of America’s chosen leaders to confront, together, the problems we face, but as competing armies—on the floor, in committees, in subcommittees—determined to dominate or destroy.

One need not deny the majority the chance to lead in agenda-shaping (electoral victory, whether by margins large or small, does matter), but before Jim Wright ascended to the speakership, in 1987, most debates, even under the decidedly partisan Tip O’Neill, allowed ample opportunity for dissent and amendment. In recent years, however, to be in the minority is essentially to be made a nonfactor in the legislative process. Leaders of both chambers have embraced the strategy of precluding minority amendments, out of fear that even members of the majority party might vote for them, because they believe either that it is the right thing to do or that it is what the people they represent prefer. Such “closed” rules, preventing members from offering amendments, simply tell citizens their preferences don’t matter.

Speaker John Boehner deserves credit for promising greater opportunities for the minority party to have its amendments considered. Under his speakership, the Republican-dominated House has actually accepted some Democratic amendments. The House now has fewer closed rules and more “modified open” rules (which permit at least some challenges to the leadership’s agenda). But whether the procedure will be open or closed on any particular matter remains at the discretion of the majority leadership, and in cases where the political commitment is particularly strong (for example, on the Republican challenge to health-care legislation passed during Democratic control), the promises of openness have been quickly abandoned. The House should adopt rules guaranteeing that any proposal receiving a significant level of support—say, 100 co-sponsors—would automatically be allowed a committee hearing, an up-or-down vote in committee, and then, even if it fails in committee, a vote on the House floor. Some majority members may abandon the team and vote with their constituents (or their own consciences), but isn’t that what we elect representatives for? And since the rules for House floor debate are determined not by parliamentary procedure but by a Rules Committee constituted anew for each session of Congress, equal numbers of Republicans and Democrats should sit on that committee (as opposed to the current practice of conferring a big advantage on the majority).

 

Change the leadership structure of congressional committees.

[Most of the real work of Congress is done at the Committee or Subcommittee Level]

In our current system, in which a small majority may have all the power and a large minority none, the chair of a congressional committee or subcommittee (always a majority-party member) decides whether a proposal will be considered and whose views will be solicited. We should change congressional rules to provide for a chairman from the majority party and a vice chairman from the minority (no such position exists in today’s Congress, except on certain special non-legislating committees); the vice chairman need not ascend to the chairmanship in the chairman’s absence, but each would have the authority to bring a bill forward and to invite expert witnesses to offer testimony. The process might be slower, but consideration of alternatives would be more thorough.

Whichever party holds the majority will resist these changes. Party leaders see committee hearings not as a means to evaluate proposals, but as tools to advance predetermined agendas. The current committee process is transactional, not deliberative. But using committees to bypass true deliberation undercuts the very purpose of a people’s legislature.

 

Fill committee vacancies by lot.

When I served on the Republican committee that decided other members’ committee assignments, I watched as party leaders sometimes refused to grant a slot to a member who was seen as unlikely to “go along,” or too inclined to exercise independent judgment, or “too nice” to spearhead the combat that had come to characterize committee “deliberations.” I was reminded of the Gilbert and Sullivan operetta H.M.S. Pinafore, in which Sir Joseph, a former member of Parliament who has been appointed Lord Admiral of the Queen’s Navy, recalls how he achieved such great success: “I always voted at my party’s call,” he sings, “and I never thought of thinking for myself at all.”

The derivation of leadership in Congress from an internal version of the party primary or convention is an artificial construct. In every informal congressional subgroup—the Human Rights Caucus, the Rust Belt Caucus, the Flat Tax Caucus—leaders are chosen without regard to party affiliation. Imagine how different the congressional dynamic would be if that practice prevailed in committee assignments. If three seats became open on a committee and five members sought appointment, the House could fill the positions by lot, thereby appointing committee members who were not beholden to party leaders for their selection and therefore not fearful that crossing party lines would cost them their position. They would be freer to vote as they saw fit. After all, their constituents chose them not only for their policies but for their temperaments, knowledge, experience, and values. Eventually, entire committees would be formed without any party division at all—merely members of Congress drawn together to consider problems and potential solutions.

 

Choose committee staff solely on the basis of professional qualifications.

Congressional staff members, who provide the research that senators and representatives use in their deliberations, are chosen to reflect the preferences of the individual members they serve. On the other hand, committee staff members, who schedule the hearings, invite witnesses to testify, prepare background materials for committee members, and negotiate with staff members from other committees in the House and Senate, are generally selected by the committee chair and the senior member of the minority. In effect, they are party appointees. But if the goal is to legislate for the country, not for a party, then committee staff members should be selected by a nonpartisan House or Senate administrator and obligated to serve all members equally without regard to party agenda.

 

If we really want change—change that will yield a Congress that is more representative and more functional, change that can be replicated in state and local governments—we need to rethink the party-driven structures we have so casually accepted for decades. This change would produce another important effect: it would strengthen Congress’s ability to discharge its constitutional role. The Constitution grants Congress most of the federal government’s real powers—to spend, tax, create federal programs, declare war, approve treaties, confirm federal court appointments. By thinking of the House and Senate in constitutional rather than partisan terms, we would eliminate party-driven links between Congress and the president and avoid the spectacle of legislative leaders acting as though they were either members of the president’s staff or his sworn enemies. The Constitution intended the legislative branch to be separate, independent, and equal; to be the people’s voice; and to exercise, when necessary, a check on the executive, an obligation rendered moot in the context of party-versus-party governance.

 

In a democracy that is open to intelligent and civil debate about competing ideas rather than programmed for automatic opposition to another party’s proposals, we might yet find ourselves able to manage the task of self-government. Our current political dysfunction is not inevitable; it results from deliberate decisions that have backfired and left us mired in the trenches of hyper-partisan warfare. Political parties will not disappear; as a free people, we will continue to honor freedom of association. The goal is not to destroy parties but to transcend them; to welcome their contributions but end their dominance; and to take back from these private clubs control of our own elections and our own Congress.

 

This article available online at:

http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2011/07/how-to-turn-republicans-and-democrats-into-americans/8521/

Copyright © 2011 by The Atlantic Monthly Group. All Rights Reserved.

 

NOVEMBER – Week #2: “4 ways to fix our broken election system”

4 ways to fix our broken election system

By Alex Berezow

One thing upon which most Republicans, Democrats and independents seem to agree is that America’s political system is dysfunctional. This became crystal clear recently when the world watched, aghast, as the U.S. bickered over how to pay its bills. Such immaturity from our leaders in Washington is at least partially responsible for the Standard & Poor’s downgrade of our credit rating.

With millions of Americans heading to the polls today (11/8/11), and the presidential election just a year away, it is time to consider reforms that could help change two destructive features of American politics: partisan gridlock and the never-ending election cycle, both of which feed upon the other.

This won’t be easy, and we’ll need to do more than just nibble around the edges. Constitutional amendments will be required, and all 50 states will have to sign on to other structural changes. Yet these four reforms would go a long way toward creating an electoral system worthy of calling our own:

1. National Primary Day. Watching candidates jet back and forth between Iowa and New Hampshire is getting old. Forty-eight other states rightfully feel slighted by this pageant. Florida is angry about it, too, which is why it moved its primary to Jan. 31, threatening to end the small-state monopoly on picking presidential nominees. Other states might follow suit.

We could put an immediate end to this fiasco by implementing a National Primary Day. Citizens across the country would pick their party’s nominee on the same day, putting an end to the disproportionate influence of ethanol-loving Iowa farmers and New Hampshire libertarians. The resistance would be vast at first, but would surely diminish as state after state joined the cause. Think of how different 2008 could have been: The nominees would likely have been Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani.

2. Implement a “top two” primary. Washington state has no GOP and Democratic primaries for most political offices. Instead, there is just one primary, and all candidates are on a single ballot. After the votes are tallied, the two with the most votes qualify for the general election. There is no fear of a third party or fringe candidate interfering with the general election. Also, the system tends to favor moderates on both sides of the aisle because more extreme candidates have a difficult time winning the primary. Imagine the beauty of this on a national scale.

3. Eliminate the Electoral College. This antiquated system has outlived its usefulness. It is time for a constitutional amendment that provides for the direct election of the president of the United States— a difficult, but not impossible, task. A popular vote would simplify the process by largely eliminating the complex political calculus that gives disproportionate influence to “swing states.” Currently, in our winner-take-all system, votes cast for a candidate in a state where that candidate loses are wasted. However, with a national popular vote, all votes count toward the total. Presidential candidates would be forced to rally supporters in all 50 states, as opposed to just a dozen purple states. Finally, this method would help us avoid tragicomedies such as the 2000 election recount in Florida, and never again could a candidate be elected without receiving the most votes.

4. Eliminate gerrymandering. California gets a lot of things wrong, but on this issue (along with Iowa), it is leading the nation. In 2010, voters approved Proposition 20, which wrestled control of congressional districting away from Sacramento and placed it in the hands of an unelected commission. This plan makes elections more competitive by eliminating protection of the incumbent via gerrymandering. Long-serving politicians in California are scared — as they should be.

Analysts commonly claim that in 2006 and 2010, the United States experienced “wave elections” in which one party was thrown out in favor of another. In 2006, the Democrats gained 31 seats in the House, and in 2010, the Republicans gained 63. That represents a mere change of 7.1% and 14.5%, respectively, in the 435-member House of Representatives.

Compare that with recent wave elections in the United Kingdom. In 1997, when Tony Blair came to power, Labour and the Liberal Democrats gained 173 seats. When David Cameron was elected in 2010, his Conservative Party gained 97 seats. In Parliament, these elections represented changes of 26.3% and 14.9%, respectively. Thus, in the U.K., wave elections are much more likely to yield change on a massive scale than in the USA.

With these significant structural changes, we could create a less partisan, more responsive electoral system. And when voters decide change is necessary, change is what they’d get.

Alex B. Berezow is the editor ofRealClearScience, a sister site ofRealClearPolitics.